Congrats Johnny Gaudreau

[gargamel]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern

Actually, I know it isn't JG's sister.

Really? Same last name, so maybe a cousin. Definitely a relative though. And definitely guaranteed the signing back in January on CP.

[gargamel]

Originally Posted by fotze

How do you know the last name?

http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showpos...postcount=1557

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

That's true. On the other hand, they were all younger than Gaudreau is now, and therefore could be expected to improve more from year to year...

Originally Posted by GreenLantern

What was the age of those players when they were given that ranking?

Crosby, Kovalchuk, and Kane were all 18, and Malkin was 20-years-old. But here is the thing about NHLE: It EQUALIZES components to a degree that the comparison from one league to another is fairly consistent. Compared to their peers in Canadian Juniour, Crosby and Kane both projected to be +60 point-scorers in their first NHL season, and both surpassed that mark by a considerable amount. Compared to his peers in the NCAA, Gaudreau projects to be a +60 point-scorer next year, which is fantastic. But because his NHLE is so high, and because he is comparatively very young to make the move from college to the NHL, it should not come as a surprise to also see him surpass that mark.

Originally Posted by GreenLantern

What is the difference, developmental wise, between a year of 17-18 or 18-19 and 20-21?

Quite a lot, which is why the NHLE for the Canadian Juniour leagues is so much lower than it is for the European Elite leagues, the KHL, and the NCAA. YEs, age is important, but people make the mistake of expecting that because college players are commonly older upon their entry into the NHL, then this must mean that their NHLE is somehow not as significant. On the contrary, I think the age discrepancy is actually reflected in the results, which is also why Gaudreau's NHLE is all that more significant, since he will be among a fairly small group of NCAA players to make his NHL debut under the age of 21.

[GreenLantern]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

Crosby, Kovalchuk, and Kane were all 18, and Malkin was 20-years-old. But here is the thing about NHLE: It EQUALIZES components to a degree that the comparison from one league to another is fairly consistent. Compared to their peers in Canadian Juniour, Crosby and Kane both projected to be +60 point-scorers in their first NHL season, and both surpassed that mark by a considerable amount. Compared to his peers in the NCAA, Gaudreau projects to be a +60 point-scorer next year, which is fantastic. But because his NHLE is so high, and because he is comparatively very young to make the move from college to the NHL, it should not come as a surprise to also see him surpass that mark.


Quite a lot, which is why the NHLE for the Canadian Juniour leagues is so much lower than it is for the European Elite leagues, the KHL, and the NCAA.

Interesting, thanks, glad I got that cleared up. I never truly understood how that ranking works and I don't think a lot of other people did.

So there must be some examples of kids that had a high NHLE ranking and tanked right out of the show? Or has that yet to happen?

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

Crosby, Kovalchuk, and Kane were all 18, and Malkin was 20-years-old. But here is the thing about NHLE: It EQUALIZES components to a degree that the comparison from one league to another is fairly consistent. Compared to their peers in Canadian Juniour, Crosby and Kane both projected to be +60 point-scorers in their first NHL season, and both surpassed that mark by a considerable amount. Compared to his peers in the NCAA, Gaudreau projects to be a +60 point-scorer next year, which is fantastic. But because his NHLE is so high, and because he is comparatively very young to make the move from college to the NHL, it should not come as a surprise to also see him surpass that mark.

Well, in the case of Crosby and Kane, they entered the NHL at 18, whereas the majority of players make the jump at 20. The development curve between ages 18 and 20 is pretty steep, so they should be expected to outperform the average NHLE for junior players by a wide margin.

Gaudreau's first pro season will come at 21, whereas the majority of college players turn pro at 22 or 23. The development curve between 21 and 23 is not as steep, so while Gaudreau's age-adjusted NHLE should be somewhat higher than 60 points, the difference is not as marked as with an 18-year-old junior player.

Then, of course, there's the fact that his NHLE equates to 60 points per 82 games. Considering that the kid isn't used to playing an 82-game season, and that he has the approximate mass of a large pipe cleaner, it might be a bit much to expect him to play 82 games. Somewhat fewer games, but still around the expected number of points, I dare to guess.

Edit: Just noticed that Gaudreau's NHLE was 67, which does make it more likely that he can crack 80 points. For some reason I thought his NHLE was 60 on the nose.

[BChockeyJunkie]

I am not his sister... that was something some BC writer came up with cause i quoted a tweet from buccigross to sister.

I AM NOT GAUDREAU SISTER!!!!!! lets drop that and not talk about his family members please.

as for JOHN,

Unless everyone else on the ice was thinking about golf tee times next week, he outplayed alot of the players on both side of the ice. Yes, I am bias, but I am a realist is almost everything in my life. Barring injury, he will not play a minute in the AHL. What am I suppost to say???? 25 pts? NO, I'm not.

USHL -
They said "He might be able to make the 2nd line or so and be ok, he just too small"

I Said "He's gonna shock ppl"

Results - Do I even need to list them

NCAA -
They said "Now these kids are bigger and better, he might be an ok player, he's just
too small"

I Said "He will out play this kids, he's too good too skill"

Results: Do I need to list them

World Juniors
They said "He got cut from the previous year for a reason, He may make the team this year, but he's too small"

I Said "They made a mistake not taking him and he will scored with the best of them.

Results: Do I need to list them

NHL-
They Say - You know what has been said
I say - "60 pts with 80 pt ceiling.....

I've never short changed him and he has yet (even through his first game in NHL) to let me down, and I'm not starting now. Sorry

[stemit14]

It was so exciting to watch him out there last night. His first NHL game and he brought a huge boost in dynamic skill to the team.

Was also really impressed with Arnold. He made some nice plays too in both ends of the rink and you can really see what everyone was saying about his defensive game. Solid on pucks and made art decisions in the defensive end.

[Tyler]

Originally Posted by BChockeyJunkie

I've never short changed him

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern

So there must be some examples of kids that had a high NHLE ranking and tanked right out of the show? Or has that yet to happen?

Oh, all the time. Pavel Brendl had an NHLE of about 48 pts/82 gp for his draft year, but his total career NHL numbers were 22 pts in 78 gp. (I was one of the fools who thought he would make it in the show.)

One thing I've never seen anybody post is the standard deviation for NHLE numbers for the various leagues. That would be useful information to have.

[fastpuck]

Don't worry BCHockey Junkie, I think most of us fully hope that he will make it full time next season, if that is the best place for his hockey growth. I am excited, his skills are electrifying. I never thought I would follow US college hockey and I have because of Johnny hockey. Firm believer in beating the odds through hard work and skill.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern

Interesting, thanks, glad I got that cleared up. I never truly understood how that ranking works and I don't think a lot of other people did.

So there must be some examples of kids that had a high NHLE ranking and tanked right out of the show? Or has that yet to happen?

Correct. NHLE is an average that factors in all the numbers from every league. Because of that, it is a bell curve in which MOST PLAYERS fall within the average range, but there are always a handful on either side of the average. Some players don't make the jump for whatever reason, while others greatly surpass expectations—like Crosby, Kane, and Malkin. In the end, each one of these numbers contributes to the average. Monahan's NHLE entering his rookie season was 30.25, and he scored 34 points; pretty close to what was projected. Of course, Nathan MacKinnon far exceeded his and Aleksander Barkov and Elias Lindholm fell short of theirs.

So, what I like about NHLE is that it provides a generally good idea of what to expect from a first-year NHL player. Gaudreau's NHLE over an 82 games season is 67 points. If he is within range of that, that equates to a fantastic rookie season, but even if he is short of it, a 45–55 point rookie season is something that I don't think any fan would complain about. Based on the historical averages, he should project to be a great player—dare I say, an elite level player.

[GreenLantern]

Yea nobody wants JG to score 80 points more than me, well maybe a few people, but I am right up there. I spent a large chunk of my Stag driving half way across MA to watch him play a college game. I skipped out on 12 minutes of the 3rd period of a Bruins game that I paid 250 bucks for a ticket, and my boy Iggy was playing in and DOMINATING to watch him play. I waited around for a hour after the game to get him to sign my jersey that I had dropped $150 bucks on to get made SPECIFICALLY for that game.

All in all I spent almost an entire day of four days I had in Boston revolving around JG with 9 of my closest friends and it by far my favourite memory of that trip.

I have been told if I mention JG's name one more time in my house that my fiance is leaving me. I don't think she was joking either.

I think you are quick to the defensive here my friend and you will need to thicken that skin a bit on this board, trust me.

That is enough wet blanket in this thread, I am just a man of numbers and facts and I like to know what is going on behind these NHLE expectations before I climb aboard the train.

Baby steps, make the team out of camp. Let's move forward from there.

Originally Posted by Textcritic

So, what I like about NHLE is that it provides a generally good idea of what to expect from a first-year NHL player. Gaudreau's NHLE over an 82 games season is 67 points. If he is within range of that, that equates to a fantastic rookie season, but even if he is short of it, a 45–55 point rookie season is something that I don't think any fan would complain about. Based on the historical averages, he should project to be a great player—dare I say, an elite level player.

That is what I was looking for, thanks.

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by puckluck2

His stick lifts were what impressed me. He's cheaper than the stick lifters on NHL14.

Agree here... only guy i see do that on a regular basis in the NHL now is Crosby (sneaking up behind the guy and stealing the puck clean off them)

[Jay Random]

A friend of mine suggests that given his size, Johnny Hockey's signature move should be skating between players' legs, stealing the puck, and giving them a wedgie as he goes through.

[AcGold]

So if an opposing team scores on their own goal and Johnny was the last to touch it does it count as a shot or would he have a 200% shooting percentage?

[BChockeyJunkie]

@Green, I was not getting hype.... you are my favorite on here. I enjoy the wait for the next step, but it's not me. They can go back and watch last years camp and he makes the team.... what should change.... I'm ready to enjoy the ride

[Red Ice Player]

After watching last night's game, I'm beginning to believe John Gaudreau will never play an AHL game, not that it will bother me if he does.
Its clear that his skills are already at an elite level even by NHL standards. I drool at his potential, which will become very clear to the league early on, especially on the power play. Now he has four or five months to strength train and adapt to life as a professional athlete. I have no doubt he will perfect a way to protect his health among the giants in the NHL.
To me, he is more Doug Gilmour than Theo Fleury. I don't think Doug ever got heavier than 175 lbs in his entire career. Canuck fans have already decided that they hate him, and that's awesome.
The biggest adjustment will be his teammates learning to expect his passes from anywhere on the ice. I just don't see his development path going through Abbotsford. If it does however, I can see that building starting to sell out.

[sureLoss]

Randy Sportak @SUNRandySportak
#Flames John Gaudreau on his first game. "I was exciting. I had a blast."

That you were Johnny :P

[AC]

Originally Posted by Cole436

BChockeyjunkie, thanks for being a part of our community. We're so excited to have Johnny here.

It's a large request to any videographers (AC), but can we get a video of each of Johnny's shifts last night? It would be great to break down his ice time.

Working on it.

[sureLoss]

RT @johngaudreau03: What a great experience playing my first NHL game with one of my best friends @BillDaHurricane , thank you for all the congrats on 1st goal