[Signing] Flames sign Gaudreau and Arnold. Will be available for Sunday's game against Canucks

[Goodlad]

Originally Posted by Vulcan

You're not following along. I said the NHLE is skewed when it comes to ranking the AHL because a lot of the players called up aren't called up for their scoring prowess.

Yes, but one would think those players would also have correlating production at the AHL level.

[Robbob]

Originally Posted by Gaskal

Brodie was one too wasn't he? Now he's a legit top pairing D. It'd be funny if we kept nailing 4th rounders.

It may take a little longer to develop the late rounders but if you can hit home runs with them that is how you build depth and can turn things around quickly.

I am just giddy seeing how Brodie and Monahan have developed this season. The potential higher end talent coming through (a top 5 pick, Gaudreau, Sven, Poirier, etc) makes me think this will not be a typical 5 year rebuild.

[EldrickOnIce]

Originally Posted by Robbob

It may take a little longer to develop the late rounders but if you can hit home runs with them that is how you build depth and can turn things around quickly.

I am just giddy seeing how Brodie and Monahan have developed this season. The potential higher end talent coming through (a top 5 pick, Gaudreau, Sven, Poirier, etc) makes me think this will not be a typical 5 year rebuild.

Exactly
Big 'if', but exactly.
Gaudreau the biggest 'if' only because his ceiling is soooooo high. No term I hate more than 'game changer', but he has potential to change everything.

Need every piece to fit though, and that is unlikely.... But a couple years ago we were missing most of the pieces

[Vulcan]

Originally Posted by Goodlad

Yes, but one would think those players would also have correlating production at the AHL level.

Okay how about Blair Jones. In the AHL he's PAG player while in the NHL, he's a 4th line grinder who has 17 points in 128 NHL games and has learned enough of his trade and has a big enough body to be somewhat effective. His stats wouldn't correlate at all. Ben Street is another journeyman who isn't called up for his scoring but lands on the 4th line as a competent fill in, while in the AHL he is also a PAG player.

Meanwhile the kids making the NHL straight out of USA College are talented young prospects who have mostly good scoring stats. The AHL has these talented prospects as well but half the time the player being called up is just an injury replacement on the 4th line.

[Geeoff]

Originally Posted by DirtyMike

Excited to see Gaudreau play tomorrow, but I'm honestly hoping he doesn't score for his own sake. Don't want another Baertschi scenario with expectations getting even further out of hand.

I would hope that Gaudreau is mentally stronger than Baertschi.

[Northendzone]

So if Johnny hockey plays for the flames tomorrow, does this use one year off of his ELC?

[strombad]

Originally Posted by Northendzone

So if Johnny hockey plays for the flames tomorrow, does this use one year off of his ELC?

One year is used regardless of whether he plays or not.

[Rhettzky]

Originally Posted by Northendzone

So if Johnny hockey plays for the flames tomorrow, does this use one year off of his ELC?

It does but I think that because he signed we have him as an RFA until he's 27 years old.

[bluloc]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

You're like one of those guys that tells everyone that musically Rick Astley was way more talented then Led Zepplin

Is that what its like lol. There's no doubt about his talent but to do it in the NHL is an entirely different story. Ill be cheering for him and Im a little excited to see him play but im not expecting the world like most people on here.
Ps
Never gonnna never gonna give give you up.......

[Gaskal]

Originally Posted by EldrickOnIce

Exactly
Big 'if', but exactly.
Gaudreau the biggest 'if' only because his ceiling is soooooo high. No term I hate more than 'game changer', but he has potential to change everything.

Need every piece to fit though, and that is unlikely.... But a couple years ago we were missing most of the pieces

The way I see it:

Floor: Kristian Huselius
Ceiling: Patrick Kane

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Vulcan

Discussing hockey with you is kind of strange. For players called up from the AHL for attributes other than scoring, how about Lance Bouma, Brian McGrattan, and Ben Hanowski. I'm not going to go through every NHL lineup to show you what is obvious.

Sometimes, that is what it takes to make your point, instead of to simply accept on intuition that this must be the case. You are probably right about the "grinder quotient" from the AHL being higher, but how do we know without actually running the numbers. Furthermore, if you are going to dismiss the differences in NHLE between the NCAA and the AHL based on this intuition, then shouldn't it be all the more imperative to do the research in order to get a more precise idea about that difference?

Furthermore, I find your problem with the comparison for this reason a little puzzling. If you are correct (and you probably are, as I have said), then the reason why the NHLE averages between the AHL and the NCAA are so close probably has something to do with the types of players that emerge from each of these leagues. But that shouldn't matter at all when it comes to understanding the number applied to Gaudreau's college production. Compared to all these other players from the select class of an "elite few NCAA offensive specialists", his numbers are off the charts. It bodes well for him, and has virtually nothing to do with how the NCAA NHLE compares to that for other leagues.

Originally Posted by Vulcan

The thing is, have fun with your NHLE stats but I don't put much faith in them trying to predict any players output.

Look. No one is suggesting that NHLE determines how good a player Gaudreau will be at the NHL level, or even if he will have any success at all. I have not yet used it to make any predictions about Gaudreau's NHL output. But what it does do is show comparisons—lots of them. It compares Gaudreau's production to globalised averages from thousands of other players from dozens of other leagues. It is a gauge that helps (not definitively) to illustrate how he compares upon entry to the NHL to other players from other leagues who started their NHL careers.

I don't much care about using this figure as a barometer for measuring expectations of production for next year. Rather, here is the part of HIS NHLE that I find most interesting, most compelling, and most useful. It is the fact that he is one of only five players in the last fifteen years to register a +60 rating, and every one of those other players is an elite offensive player at the NHL level. Put simply, this in itself bodes well for anticipating his success; it would suggest that he has a greater chance of being a great NHL player than he does of failing to become a NHL regular. With how consistent the +60 class has been, Gaudreau's failure to become a first-line talent would actually be an exception.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Vulcan

Okay how about Blair Jones. In the AHL he's PAG player while in the NHL, he's a 4th line grinder who has 17 points in 128 NHL games and has learned enough of his trade and has a big enough body to be somewhat effective. His stats wouldn't correlate at all...

NHLE works much better for gauging the point of transition from one league to another. Jones' and Street's NHLE at the point of transition from their last AHL seasons to their first NHL seasons is actually much closer to what we would expect. They are both close to 30-years-old, and are no longer developing.

[undercoverbrother]

Reading this thread has killed all my excitement for Saturday



Thanks jerks

[JiriHrdina]

Originally Posted by bluloc

Is that what its like lol. There's no doubt about his talent but to do it in the NHL is an entirely different story. Ill be cheering for him and Im a little excited to see him play but im not expecting the world like most people on here.
Ps
Never gonnna never gonna give give you up.......

Actually no one is expecting the world. You seem to be struggling to disconnect fan excitement from fan expectation.

Its OK to be excited about something from time to time.

[kobasew19]

Not sure how credible but Darren Haynes RT: @TPS_Guy: As per @CHN_AdamWodon, Boston College senior Kevin Hayes won't sign with Chicago, He's UFA Aug 15th. Will #Flames reunite that entire line?

[Textcritic]

^
Well. Isn't that interesting. I certainly wouldn't mind if the Flames pitched him an offer, but I also wouldn't be at all bothered if he signs with another team.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by kobasew19

Not sure how credible but Darren Haynes RT: @TPS_Guy: As per @CHN_AdamWodon, Boston College senior Kevin Hayes won't sign with Chicago, He's UFA Aug 15th. Will #Flames reunite that entire line?

Very credible. And a Fata

[RyZ]

Originally Posted by Gaskal

The way I see it:

Floor: Kristian Huselius
Ceiling: Patrick Kane

This is why we cant have nice things.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Vulcan

Okay how about Blair Jones. In the AHL he's PAG player while in the NHL, he's a 4th line grinder who has 17 points in 128 NHL games and has learned enough of his trade and has a big enough body to be somewhat effective. His stats wouldn't correlate at all. Ben Street is another journeyman who isn't called up for his scoring but lands on the 4th line as a competent fill in, while in the AHL he is also a PAG player.

Meanwhile the kids making the NHL straight out of USA College are talented young prospects who have mostly good scoring stats. The AHL has these talented prospects as well but half the time the player being called up is just an injury replacement on the 4th line.

I think it is you that is not following - the stats include all the players, including the guys who end up as grinders.

The mistake that I believe you are making is that you are making a qualitative assessment that there is a higher percentage of grinders coming from the AHL than there is from the NCAA. But you have no proof of this at all - show us some evidence to back up your view.

I am not sure why you think NCAA prospects are more high-end. Again, if you can show evidence of that, please do. But let's look at the Flames as an example: coming from the NCAA, we have Knight, Agostino, Hanowski, Van Brabant, Arnold and Gaudreau. The only high-end, offensive player in that group is Gaudreau. And I would argue that the Flames' NCAA prospects are probably more talented in the aggregate than most teams.

Let me try and explain this again: the NHLE numbers are averages. They include all players that make the jump. There is no evidence that one source of players produces more grinders or scorers or any particular kind of player than any of the other sources do. But even if they did, that gets factored into the numbers.

For example, one of the common comments with respect to Gaudreau's NHLE is that he is older than the other guys being compared to (like Kane). However, you have to keep in mind that all of the players coming from the CHL, on average, are younger than the players coming from the NCAA, on average.

In other words, if you look at Kane's numbers relative to other CHLers, you are comparing him to other teenagers who have made the jump straight to the NHL. In other words, other good young players. And yet his numbers are much better than the average numbers of that group.

Now look at Gaudreau. His stats are being compared to other NCAA players who are good enough to make the jump. Gaudreau's numbers are not only much better than the average, but he is also much younger than them. In other words, his age should actually be looked at as more of a disadvantage to him (or maybe at least as much) as Kane and Crosby's numbers are. (Kane and Crosby were 18, compared to the group which are mostly 19 year olds, and Gaudreau is 20, compared to his group which is mostly 22 and 23 year olds).

[FlamingLonghorn]

Quick clarification... If Gaudreau doesn't play on Sunday, can he still sign an ATO with the Heat or is that not a possibility?