Toronto collapses again, still suck.

[strombad]

Originally Posted by BigTuna

LOL. How old is that data? Joey Crabb, Keith Aulie? How about the last 2 years.

He just posted it. The stats encompass every player that played more than 200 minutes with BOTH Grabovski and Bozak.

Pretty impossible to argue, Grabovski has a more positive effect than Bozak.

[19Yzerman19]

Originally Posted by BigTuna

LOL. How old is that data? Joey Crabb, Keith Aulie? How about the last 2 years.

That data is better for determining whether or not it was smart to keep Bozak and lose Grabovski, and demonstrates that it wasn't. Read my post: the data is total. It is current as of the moment Grabovski was bought out and Bozak was re-signed, at which point they weren't playing on the same team anymore.

Incidentally if you want to look at the last two years, here.
Tyler Bozak 2012-2014: 44.3 FF% close, 46.6 CF% 5on5 48.8 GF% 5on5, 31.0 OZ%, 1011 PDO.
M Grabovski 2012-2014: 48.3 FF% close, 50.2% CF%, 5on5 48.7 GF% 5on5, 25.9 OZ%, 1002 PDO.

This includes an apparent "career" season for Bozak this year, and Grabovski's oft-referenced-by-Leafs-fans terrible final year under Carlyle. In spite of this, Grabovski ends up with basically identical GF/GA numbers even with a 9 point disadvantage in his PDO. He is 4% better at possession, despite starting 5% fewer shifts in the offensive end. Oh, and Grabovski played against tougher opponents.

Again, Grabovski wins even with the deck stacked against him in terms of circumstances. You're seeing with Clarkson what you saw with Grabovski last year - players with a proven track record in the NHL who suddenly and completely cratered under a Carlyle "system". Move Grabovski to Washington and he's a useful 2C again.

If you want the issues explained in simple terms, here is a good article from before the season: http://theleafsnation.com/2013/7/6/e...y-hockey-terms

P.S. - hilarious note that the only players on Toronto's page over 50% in even strength Corsi the past two years are Grabovski and Macarthur. You can't make this stuff up.

Originally Posted by BigTuna

The only time it worked out for the Leafs when Grabovski was there was when he got reduced to a third-liner.

This post for me sums up how Leafs fans work. There is no basis for this statement and all evidence points the other way. Yet they will construct fantasy worlds to justify the completely awful, boneheaded decisions made by their management group. Which is why they continue to get away with running their team like a tire fire. You guys deserve what you get.

[Anduril]

Originally Posted by BigTuna

LOL. How old is that data? Joey Crabb, Keith Aulie? How about the last 2 years.

It's getting to the point where a naked Dave Nonis tap dancing with a top hat saying Grabovski is better than Bozak could be in right in front of you and you would just ignore it.


Bozak TOI (HR:MIN) PPTOI Points
2012 1375:28 203:32 47
2013 934:17 136:47 28
2014 1148:48 148:12 47


Grabovski TOI (MIN:SEC) PPTOI Points
2012 1302:58 155:03 51
2013 747:22 81:49 16
2014 853:54 81:37 34
-----------------

So in 2012, Grabovski gets less ice time, less PP time and lower quality line mates yet still outproduces star-complementary player Bozak. So what does that mean? Grabovski carries his line instead of being carried.

2013, Carlyle forces Grabovski into an unfamiliar role which doesn't suit the player whatsoever. Less PP time, and checkers for linemates.

2014, Grabovski gets a chance to play more of a top 6 role, doesn't have as much of an impact as he's done in the past but still scores at a similar point per minute pace compared to Bozak who is playing with a 40 goal and 30 goal scorer, receives top minutes on the PP.


This isn't even advanced stats. It's looking at the bigger picture. If you're just going to point and say Bozak points>Grabovski points therefore Bozak>Grabovski, then somebody like Kunitz is clearly better than Tavaras or Iginla since last year. He's an Olympian after all.

[BigTuna]

Carlyle didn't force Grabovski into a third line role at all. He was playing like crap, and lost his spot to both Kadri and Bozak.

Grabovski on the Leafs right now is their third-line centre just like last season.

You guys are desperately hanging onto your season-long stance that buying-out Grabovski was such a huge mistake.

[19Yzerman19]

Originally Posted by BigTuna

Carlyle didn't force Grabovski into a third line role at all. He was playing like crap, and lost his spot to both Kadri and Bozak.

Grabovski on the Leafs right now is their third-line centre just like last season.

Hahaha multiple people have just spent a bunch of time demonstrating why this is completely wrong.


It's like he's a parody. Our very own Leafs fan parody right in the middle of the Leafs are no good thread. Can we get one of these for the Oilers thread? It would make that one so much more entertaining.

[Tinordi]

Originally Posted by strombad

And really, anyone who looked at their shots against could've said "That's not sustainable."

Nothing really "advanced" about it.

Who said anything about advanced?

[BigTuna]

Originally Posted by 19Yzerman19

Hahaha multiple people have just spent a bunch of time demonstrating why this is completely wrong.


It's like he's a parody. Our very own Leafs fan parody right in the middle of the Leafs are no good thread. Can we get one of these for the Oilers thread? It would make that one so much more entertaining.

So I am wrong for saying Grabovski struggled early in 2013', and lost his role on the team due to it? Kadri had 44 points in 48 games as a centre. Bozak was playing better. He got bumped into a lesser role due to the play of himself and others.

But you are claiming this is wrong.

[strombad]

Originally Posted by BigTuna

So I am wrong for saying Grabovski struggled early in 2013', and lost his role on the team due to it? Kadri had 44 points in 48 games as a centre. Bozak was playing better. He got bumped into a lesser role due to the play of himself and others.

But you are claiming this is wrong.

Is Bozak better? Or did Grabovski have one unique statistically bad season? Because those are different things.

[JayP]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

And the advocates will pat themselves on the back for being right, and then continue to ignore all the times that they are not.

If anything, advanced stats advocates are actually the ones who don't ignore the times they are not. It's kind of the basic premise of sports statistics - if you're wrong, dig deeper and try and determine why you were and if there's a better way to look at things. Do you think "real" hockey analysts do the same?

[BigTuna]

Originally Posted by strombad

Is Bozak better? Or did Grabovski have one unique statistically bad season? Because those are different things.

Bozak was better last season and this season. I will go with this current trend and not go by years when Bozak had not hit his peak and Joey Crabb was on the team.

[Red John]

Originally Posted by BigTuna

Carlyle didn't force Grabovski into a third line role at all. He was playing like crap, and lost his spot to both Kadri and Bozak.

Grabovski on the Leafs right now is their third-line centre just like last season.

You guys are desperately hanging onto your season-long stance that buying-out Grabovski was such a huge mistake.

Nobody on this board needs to "desperately hang onto" anything. Leafs choked again.

We get the last laugh. You don't.

[strombad]

Originally Posted by Red John

Nobody on this board needs to "desperately hang onto" anything. Leafs choked again.

We get the last laugh. You don't.

Now now now, let's be patient here.

After all, the Leafs have 3 games left and are 3 points back of a team with a game in hand. According to BigTuna, it's not crunch time yet, so Phaneuf will suddenly turn his game on when it IS crunch time (which is sometime in the next 2 games, maybe?) and become that elite defensive d-man everyone knows him to be, carrying his team straight into the playoffs.

It is written, so it shall be done.

[19Yzerman19]

Originally Posted by JayP

If anything, advanced stats advocates are actually the ones who don't ignore the times they are not. It's kind of the basic premise of sports statistics - if you're wrong, dig deeper and try and determine why you were and if there's a better way to look at things. Do you think "real" hockey analysts do the same?

Very well put. I think there are some stats proponents who do not do this - who have become so married to the idea that Fenwick Close presents the best predictor of success and therefore anything that does not accord with that universal truth must be an aberration and should be discounted. But the real guys are looking specifically at those aberrations and trying to find the best explanation for why they happened.

"Traditional hockey analysts" is a tough field to define. But if you mean guys like PJ Stock and Glenn Healy and other similar panelists, their job isn't really to analyze the game. It's to create an entertaining and engaging narrative. Accuracy is secondary (if even that), they're there to enhance the entertainment factor of the product for viewers, not to educate or enlighten them.

But all this is off topic, let's get back to enjoying the gift that is BigTuna.

[OzSome]

Remember when the Leafs signed a wrong defenseman with ridiculous amount of contract. Then the GM realized he signed the wrong guy. Was that Jeff Finger or someone else? Who was the GM at that time?

Anyways, it must be tough on Leafs players. The media, the fans and the rest of Canadian media are scrutinizing everything. Then the goaltenders has to deal with the head coach Randy Carlyle blaming them for a lost. Too many problems with this team.

[Gaskal]

Originally Posted by 19Yzerman19

It's like he's a parody. Our very own Leafs fan parody right in the middle of the Leafs are no good thread. Can we get one of these for the Oilers thread? It would make that one so much more entertaining.

Oil Stain is the closest we can get, except he doesn't post as outlandishly about the Oilers as BigTuna does about the Leafs. And I don't see him in that thread too often.

[Lil Pedro]

Originally Posted by OzSome

Remember when the Leafs signed a wrong defenseman with ridiculous amount of contract. Then the GM realized he signed the wrong guy. Was that Jeff Finger or someone else? Who was the GM at that time?

Anyways, it must be tough on Leafs players. The media, the fans and the rest of Canadian media are scrutinizing everything. Then the goaltenders has to deal with the head coach Randy Carlyle blaming them for a lost. Too many problems with this team.

Mike Komaserik maybe?

[19Yzerman19]

No, it was Finger.

http://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog.php?post_id=16043

http://www.sportingnews.com/nhl/stor...ong-defenseman

[BigTuna]

Originally Posted by OzSome

Remember when the Leafs signed a wrong defenseman with ridiculous amount of contract. Then the GM realized he signed the wrong guy. Was that Jeff Finger or someone else? Who was the GM at that time?

Anyways, it must be tough on Leafs players. The media, the fans and the rest of Canadian media are scrutinizing everything. Then the goaltenders has to deal with the head coach Randy Carlyle blaming them for a lost. Too many problems with this team.

Never happened. That was an ESPN story that was never picked-up in Canada. You know why?

[ResAlien]

Originally Posted by BigTuna

Never happened. That was an ESPN story that was never picked-up in Canada. You know why?

[IamNotKenKing]

Originally Posted by BigTuna

Never happened. That was an ESPN story that was never picked-up in Canada. You know why?

Don't leave us hanging. PLEASE tell us why!!!