CP Lockout Mafia - Game Over - Players Win!

[dissentowner]

Well I received a secret message in the night, this is what it said.
"Two bitter enemies in the Stanley Cup Final are now friends and talking, after accusations of not tire pumping? Don't believe it - one is lying."

So according to this message those players would be Thomas and Luongo, which would indicate one of UCB or Wood is not what they say they are. Providing whomever sent that is not trying to lead us astray.

[activeStick]

Wow interesting.

Is it possible that one is Mafia though with the other one not knowing?

[octothorp]

Wow, very interesting night!

Most likely explanation is that they Aeneas was the last mafia and we now have just one non-mafia serial-killer to worry about.

Other possible explanations, from most likely to least (IMO):
There's one mafia left, who was also the mafia's assassin, and he can't do both the mafia's kill and his assassin kill in the same night, thus only one kill.
There's still two factions, and they happened to both target Anduril.
Somebody targeted Activestick, and burned a kill on his bulletproof vest.
There's a player-aligned vigilante out there, the mafia had stumbled onto his identity, and has been using Aeneas's redirector ability take out known players with it.

The colour text around Anduril's death suggests that we've eliminated the mafia, so I'm good with assuming that today, and if we're wrong about that we should know by tonight.

If I assume that, I need to put my suspicions of Wood and UCB aside for now. My original suspicion of UCB came from a series of posts that looked like him trying to redirect away from original mafia members. I don't have much evidence that suggests him of being an independent serial killer. A mafia-aligned assassin who's also got a mason-like relationship with Wood? That's the only way my original theory about him would still fit. Not impossible, but seems less likely.


I'm not sure how much we should read into these messages. Either they are coming from another player who has some sort of rolecop ability, or they are coming from the assassin (or from another player who is aligned with the assassin). My first instinct is that whoever is composing them should step up now and say what he knows; we're getting close enough that their knowledge might be enough to win this for us.

Seems more likely that it's assassin misdirection, though. And if it's misdirection, you can't believe any element of it: not what it says, not who claims to have received it, not who it seems to exonerate.


No disrespect, but honestly, I don't trust anyone right now. Nobody left has an ability that can be demonstrated, except for Stazzy who has demonstrated only half of his ability. Although he could theoretically demonstrate his roleblocker ability if he uses it more effectively tonight. I'm in favour of not killing Stazzy tonight, because the possibility of roleblocking the assassin tonight gives him the only useful ability any of us know we have.

Anyone want to speculate about what the 'awakened' part of Anduril's ability was? Does that mean he was a backup or someone who had to have something else happen in order to be awakened? I'm also scratching my head over why Anduril was targeted, unless the assassin feared not knowing what Anduril's ability was.

[Wood]

Yeah I think whoever is sending those messages has to be mafia/assasin, remember I got one on the last day putting a target on stazzy. Its someone trying to shift the attention elsewhere

That ones for sure a lie, we were both told in our role PM we know the other is 100% a player

If dissentowner got a message too now I trust him, seeing as me and anduril were the others to get one.

So for me I see no reason to be suspicious of Octo, hes done more than enough to prove hes a player. If dissentowner got a message I think he must be a player too. activestick has a very solid voting and posting record, hes most likely a player

If there's only one person left, who is an assasin and is send those messages, it looks like it points to agulati

[Wood]

But I'm starting to think maybe theres still possibly a mafia left who is sending messages, and maybe someone tried to kill activestick but he was saved by his vest

[agulati]

Those messages seem to be just misdirection. I don't think we should put any merit to it. If dissentowner did receive the message, it pushes me to believe UCB and Wood are players

There might be a chance that dissentowner didn't receive the message. He might be the person who has sent the messages to others previously.

[agulati]

Why would Mazrim talk about us finishing of a group, if there is still a Mafia left?

[octothorp]

The problem with assuming that someone is innocent because they claimed to receive a message, is that mafia/assassin can easily send a message to the person they're killing, ensuring that nobody else receives a message, and then claim that the received one. Dissentowner is probably telling the truth, but there's a chance he's actually the guy sending messages, and claims to receive one to make himself look innocent. Same with Wood yesterday.

If I'm scum and I have the message sending power, then I'd either send a message that attacks me (thus making me look innocent since nobody trusts those messages); or send a message to the player I'm killing and claim that I'm the one receiving a message.

[octothorp]

... or just not send the message at all and claim that I received one.

[activeStick]

So if I'm reading Mazrim's post correctly, the Mafia is gone right? Is there any possibility they're not and I'm misinterpreting?

He also says however that we're not done, so I guess that confirms there's an assassin or maybe more than one?

If there's only one, I'd assume I wasn't targeted since only one person died. But if there are two or the person has two kills per night, then frig, clearly I was targeted.

[octothorp]

Here's a list of all 'messages' in end-of-night posts:
Night 1:
Allcaps bold: Negotiations are not smooth here, we're not impressed.
Fancy gold: A Stanley Cup can do funny things to a player

Night 2:
Allcaps bold: Try and enjoy yourselves, you don't seem interested in leaving soon.
Fancy gold: We will kill until we win. We will win
Fancy grey: With a huge move, the players have tied it up in the second

Night 3:
Allcaps bold: Things are going to get worse before they get better.

Night 4:
Allcaps bold: Patience is a thing of the past, time to make up your mind.

Night 5:
Allcaps bold: What will be done now? Make your move.

Night 6:
Allcaps bold: You have taken care of one group, but you are not finished.
Fancy grey: This is Stazzy33, I am a player.



I've always assumed that the fancy text comes from players... Street Pharm likely for the gold (flavour-writer ability, and the night he was killed was the last night of gold text), and Stazzy33 for grey.

Stazzy, did you not send a message on night 4? Did you send a message and it was blocked?

The allcaps bold: I've always assumed that this is mod text, not poster-generated. If it's mod-generated, then we can probably trust that one group is finished. However, I'm not convinced that's a safe assumption. But I'm okay with assuming that for today.



The whole 'group behind the walls' thing, who would make sense for that? My first instinct is media. TSN has turned the whole NHL negotiations into a cut-throat reality TV show to fill their ratings void? Pierre McGuire is somewhere undercover amongst us?

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by agulati

There might be a chance that dissentowner didn't receive the message. He might be the person who has sent the messages to others previously.

Why would I choose two guys that I have flat out said I believed were players before the message though? That makes no sense at all. My previous voting and posting should make it pretty clear I am a player.

[octothorp]

Sooo difficult right now. I feel like there are five more or less equal possibilities for who the remaining killer/faction is right now, and whoever I suggest for a lynch isn't going to be much better than 1-in-5 odds.

Assuming he doesn't get lynched today, does anyone have any thoughts for how Stazzy should use his roleblock? It's one of our few remaining abilities, and I'm scratching my head about how it can be used most effectively.

[activeStick]

I think we have to let stazzy decide who to use it on and have him keep it to himself. Any discussions about it and it's too easy for whoever are the true assassins / Mafia to use to their advantage.

For example, let's say we decide as a group that octo is the assassin so we have stazzy role block you. If you aren't the assassin, the true one simply doesn't kill anyone next Night and suddenly, you are the prime suspect and you're gone next time.

Know what I mean?

[agulati]

I agree with activeStick. That might be the best approach. Let stazzy33 decide whom to role block. That way we leave the assassin in doubt.

[octothorp]

Here's the counter-argument to that:

Stazzy chooses to block someone. He doesn't block the killer, and the killer targets him during the night. He's dead, we don't know who he targeted. We've learned nothing, and we've wasted our one remaining (that we know of) nighttime ability.

If Stazzy tells us beforehand who he's blocking, and Stazzy is killed during the night, then we know at least that the person Stazzy was blocking during the night is not the killer. But if Stazzy says nothing, is killed during the night, then we know nothing in the morning. One piece of information is better than zero pieces of information. If we force the killer into a situation where he chooses not to kill, this is a good thing. It extends the game and gives us more lynches. We just need to be smart about using them.

This is complicated by Activestick's bulletproof vest. We already know that a no-kill night doesn't mean that the block was successful. We aren't going to lynch anyone after a roleblock and no-kill, unless that person was already a major suspect.

[octothorp]

And I'm not saying the counterargument is right. I'm going back and forth in my head on this.

[activeStick]

Yup I hear ya octo. I'm also thinking so now let's say Stazzy keeps things to himself and blocks someone. The true assassins just decide now that they don't kill anyone at Night. stazzy reveals who he blocked and then what?

Aaaaah.... There's gotta be a better way!

[Wood]

I'm surprised the assasin would kill anduril at night. No offense but I would have killed octothorp myself, even if his power is used up hes in complete control of this game

He was probably worried about andurils ability since he was the only one to not reveal. Now with the abilities we do have its just a guessing game, none can win it for us.

The assasin is kind of in a good position

[octothorp]

Yeah, that has me asking, is the fact I wasn't killed mean that I'm on the right track and killing me would confirm suspicions, or I'm not on the right track and the assassin is happy to let me steer the group in the wrong direction? I felt like I had a good handle up until we eliminated the mafia (presumably), now I have no idea.


If I was to profile what early-game behaviour I would expect from an independent assassin, it would be voting in line with the players as much as possible, talk enough to avoid being lynched for low-posting, but avoid sticking one's neck out to avoid becoming a mafia target. Other than myself, the people who have stuck their neck out the most have been undercoverbrother and activestick, then Wood, the Agulati, then Dissentowner, then Stazzy. Stazzy I'm reluctant to lynch tonight because of the possibility of the usefulness of his claimed ability (which he may be lying about), and because I think an assassin would try to maintain a slightly higher posting profile than he did.

Right now, I'd be for lynching one of Agulati or Dissentowner, and recommending that Stazzy roleblock the other. I don't have high suspicions of either of them, but I put them slightly stronger suspects than anyone else.