Craig's List 2014 Prospects

[Caged Great]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

I know that is a strong belief around here and people will trot out history to support it but a lot of the highly taken defensemen in recent history have turned out just great (Doughty, Pietroangelo, Hedman, Ekman-Larsson). Even some more recent guys like Trouba and Rielly look like they have bright futures ahead of them. Even Erik Johnson has really turned his game around this year after having some injury problems earlier in his career and having a couple disappointing years. There are some spectacular busts at forwards in the top 5 too, let's not forget about them.

Take a look at 2008 for example (http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/nhl2008e.html) which was strong on defenseman and the defensemen taken in the entire first round look a lot better than the forwards overall. You'd be kicking yourself for turning some of them down based on past history. This kind of thing can change year to year so we shouldn't be too quick to generalize or assume that history will always repeat itself.

There is a reason why most scouting services have Ekblad #1 at the moment. Frankly this forward crop is underwhelming compared to previous years so it's possible that Ekblad is just the best player available. And he might be the best player available without being a franchise defenseman because none of the forwards may be franchise forwards either. This does look like a weaker draft.

I know people love to look backwards and then project history forward but mistakes can be made using that methodology. Let's evaluate Ekblad vs Reinhart vs Draisaitl vs Bennett on their own merits and not blame Ekblad for the disappointment that some defensemen in the past may have been.

I think all of Reinhart/Bennett/Ekblad are equivalent though in terms of ability and potential, just different flavours of talents. Reinhart's looking more of a decent 2 way 1st line C, Bennett a decent 1st line C/Wing (depends on team need etc) and Ekblad more of a solid #2 with a #3 floor.

Flashy higher end forwards are harder to get than top D. That's the main reason why I prefer them to the D-men. Usually there are a couple D-men from 15-90 that turn into top pairing guys every year, but rarely do you get that kind of star forward talent from there (1st liners).

Also, 2008 might have been the single best year for defensemen in the draft in NHL history. Honestly, if I was picking that year, every single pick would've been D-men. Any time there seems to be a strangely deep pool of talent in a position in a given year, go nuts and grab as many as logically necessary (say take a pair of goalies if there's a run on them)

[Calgary4LIfe]

Originally Posted by Red John

That's basically it. One-trick pony with character issues. Hope the Flames aren't even considering him unless he somehow drops to the 34th pick then he might be worth a gamble.

I don't think I am quite as down on him as you seem to be - but maybe I haven't watched him as much either. I don't think he will bust or be as underwhelming as Fata was - I think he will be a NHL'er. I just have to wonder at how much success he would have. I think for him to find success, he will have to go to a talented roster with a very good system that he fits. I don't think he is dynamic enough to create as he seems to do in junior.

I do see patterns to his game for sure. Seems to have a smaller repertoire than Ritchie to me, who seems better able to modify his game at times and make use of his teammates better.

Also, to echo sureloss, I haven't heard of any character issues at all about this kid. Seems to have his head set right on his shoulders. I have heard things about Ho-Sang, De Angelo and a few other 'head-cases', but everything I have heard about Virtanen has been positive. Care to elaborate?

[djsFlames]

Really wouldn't mind us taking DC if the centers are gone.

Never such thing as too much depth. If all our LWs pan out, maybe one can start playing on the other side, or we can trade for a RW.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by Caged Great

I think all of Reinhart/Bennett/Ekblad are equivalent though in terms of ability and potential, just different flavours of talents. Reinhart's looking more of a decent 2 way 1st line C, Bennett a decent 1st line C/Wing (depends on team need etc) and Ekblad more of a solid #2 with a #3 floor.

Flashy higher end forwards are harder to get than top D. That's the main reason why I prefer them to the D-men. Usually there are a couple D-men from 15-90 that turn into top pairing guys every year, but rarely do you get that kind of star forward talent from there (1st liners).

Also, 2008 might have been the single best year for defensemen in the draft in NHL history. Honestly, if I was picking that year, every single pick would've been D-men. Any time there seems to be a strangely deep pool of talent in a position in a given year, go nuts and grab as many as logically necessary (say take a pair of goalies if there's a run on them)

I think top D men are as hard to get. For every example of a top d-man you can find who was drafted in the 15-90 range I can probably match it with a star forward taken in that range as well. And just because some teams occasionally find a star d-man in the late first or second round does not mean you can plan on finding one there.

Of course Flames fans may be hardest to convince as our top d-men were undrafted (Gio) and a 4th rounder (Brodie). Definitely exceptions to the norm. And we've had trouble getting star forwards ANYWHERE in the draft. We can't get them in the 6-10 range, we can't get them in the 10-15 range, etc. But our best hope at a truly elite star guy may be little Gaudreau who much like Brodie was a 4th rounder.

As for Ekblad I think you're underselling him a bit. Most scout and GM's quotes have said he should be a 26-28 minute guy a night in the NHL at worst and at best a franchise defenseman. So it sounds like they believe his floor is a #2 and his ceiling is a #1 (although not everyone is sold that he'll be that franchise #1 guy like a Weber.)

Frankly our defense does not look that bad right now. But those big, strong top 3 guys are hard to find. Nobody is trading them. Drafting Ekblad would see our defense set for years. We could spend our 2nd rounders on forwards and next years first on one.

And arguably it is easiest to add an elite goal scorer for a cup run as we saw this deadline. Guys like Vanek, Moulson and Cammalleri going for relatively cheap. You don't ever see top 3 defensemen being traded or rented for those prices.

If you said big #1 centres are almost impossible to acquire outside the top 5-10 I would wholeheartedly agree with you. Hopefully we've found one in Monahan. I'm not totally convinced Reinhart/Draisaitl/Bennett are those elite #1 centres yet. Bennett is the most appealing to me because as a speedy, skilled, super competitive high end guy he really fills a need for us.

Ekblad vs Bennett is kind of a toss up for me at this point. I like both better than Reinhart/Draisaitl as I think the latter two are more similar to Monahan who we already have. Ekblad and Bennett seem more unique commodities to us. And in a way Dal Colle and Ritchie are also something we completely lack at this point.

I'll be pretty happy with any of the above frankly. I hope the Flames get a guy they have in their top 3-4.

[Some_Kinda]

Do we have 5 picks in the top 90 this draft?

[Red John]

Originally Posted by Calgary4LIfe

I don't think I am quite as down on him as you seem to be - but maybe I haven't watched him as much either. I don't think he will bust or be as underwhelming as Fata was - I think he will be a NHL'er. I just have to wonder at how much success he would have. I think for him to find success, he will have to go to a talented roster with a very good system that he fits. I don't think he is dynamic enough to create as he seems to do in junior.

I do see patterns to his game for sure. Seems to have a smaller repertoire than Ritchie to me, who seems better able to modify his game at times and make use of his teammates better.

Also, to echo sureloss, I haven't heard of any character issues at all about this kid. Seems to have his head set right on his shoulders. I have heard things about Ho-Sang, De Angelo and a few other 'head-cases', but everything I have heard about Virtanen has been positive. Care to elaborate?

Completely agree he will be a NHLer and will be better than Fata. Personally see a lot of Rene Bourque in him - a guy who will pot his 20 goals but always leave you wanting more especially in the other facets of his game. A bit of Blake Comeau too but much better skills, he'll score 24 goals more than once in his career.

Friend of mine knows someone who was close to Virtanen for some time and by all accounts he has some character issues but so did a lot of guys on that Hitmen team and given that Virtanen's just 17 this may be a result of following some of the older guys on that team. Take it with a grain of salt.

There's no doubt the guy has some serious raw skill but he lacks hockey IQ and that's the biggest issue because you can't teach it and guys who lack it usually never put it together.

[Caged Great]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

I think top D men are as hard to get. For every example of a top d-man you can find who was drafted in the 15-90 range I can probably match it with a star forward taken in that range as well. And just because some teams occasionally find a star d-man in the late first or second round does not mean you can plan on finding one there.

Of course Flames fans may be hardest to convince as our top d-men were undrafted (Gio) and a 4th rounder (Brodie). Definitely exceptions to the norm. And we've had trouble getting star forwards ANYWHERE in the draft. We can't get them in the 6-10 range, we can't get them in the 10-15 range, etc. But our best hope at a truly elite star guy may be little Gaudreau who much like Brodie was a 4th rounder.

It's nearly impossible finding anything good outside of the top 5, and especially the top 3. You need good talent evaluators.

As for Ekblad I think you're underselling him a bit. Most scout and GM's quotes have said he should be a 26-28 minute guy a night in the NHL at worst and at best a franchise defenseman. So it sounds like they believe his floor is a #2 and his ceiling is a #1 (although not everyone is sold that he'll be that franchise #1 guy like a Weber.)

Every year the top D-man is called a #1 guy. At worst I see him being a very useful #3, like Zack Bogozian up to a guy like Hedman. Not saying that he'd be a bad guy to select. Just would rather get a potential 60-80 point forward.

Frankly our defense does not look that bad right now. But those big, strong top 3 guys are hard to find. Nobody is trading them. Drafting Ekblad would see our defense set for years. We could spend our 2nd rounders on forwards and next years first on one.

I am hoping they go Forward then D, D, D, and D with the picks in the top 3 rounds. We are fairly set in terms of 2nd/3rd and 4th line forwards and goaltenders in the prospect pool right now. Poirier, Sven, and Gaudreau all have 1st line upside (frankly a few others too, but several more things would have to go right in those guys cases)

There are quite a handful of decent guys in the 2nd/3rd rounds that are 6-2+ and are good defenders as well. By spamming the defense in the 2nd and 3rd rounds, we are more likely to actually manage to get 1 or 2 top 4 guy out the deal.

If you said big #1 centres are almost impossible to acquire outside the top 5-10 I would wholeheartedly agree with you. Hopefully we've found one in Monahan. I'm not totally convinced Reinhart/Draisaitl/Bennett are those elite #1 centres yet. Bennett is the most appealing to me because as a speedy, skilled, super competitive high end guy he really fills a need for us.

Monahan and Reinhart/Draisaitl/Bennett would be a good 1-2 punch. I'm not overly thrilled with anyone in this draft either, but there is talent there, even if it's only as a higher end 2nd line player behind the Monorail.

Ekblad vs Bennett is kind of a toss up for me at this point. I like both better than Reinhart/Draisaitl as I think the latter two are more similar to Monahan who we already have. Ekblad and Bennett seem more unique commodities to us. And in a way Dal Colle and Ritchie are also something we completely lack at this point.

I'll be pretty happy with any of the above frankly. I hope the Flames get a guy they have in their top 3-4.

I'm liking the fact that we should get a top 6 forward or top 3 defenseman in a few months. It'll help us which ever way that it goes. Can't wait for some more skill to add to this roster.

[djsFlames]

If we get Reinhart, Ekblad or Draisaitl, they could be put into the lineup as early as next season, as all three a nicely sized already and in Reinhart/Ekblads case, are far too good for their respective leagues at this point.

If that's the case, then the injection of talent could be huge next season, with the possibilities of Baertschi, Gaudreau or Poirier cracking the lineup as well as this pick. Excitiing.

Edit: On second thought, probably just Reinhart and Ekblad. Whoever the Oilers draft you can bet will be put into their lineup next year, though.

[Wastedyouth]

If it's not Reinhart, don't count on anyone in this draft being next year ready.

[formulate]

Originally Posted by Some_Kinda

Do we have 5 picks in the top 90 this draft?

Yes. Our first (4 or 5, most likely), our second (34ish), Colorado's second (55ish), Our third (64ish), Pittsburgh's third (85ish).

Originally Posted by Caged Great

I am hoping they go Forward then D, D, D, and D with the picks in the top 3 rounds.

There are quite a handful of decent guys in the 2nd/3rd rounds that are 6-2+ and are good defenders as well. By spamming the defense in the 2nd and 3rd rounds, we are more likely to actually manage to get 1 or 2 top 4 guy out the deal.

I have been thinking the same thing. Likely throw a goalie in there with one of the third-rounders, but going D-heavy seems like the prudent thing to do. Josh Jacobs and Alex Peters intrigue me as second round picks.

Another option would be attempting to trade up back into the first round. What would the 34th and 54th picks be worth in terms of first round position? 25 or so? Might be worth it if someone like Roland McKeown slides a bit.

[sureLoss]

Originally Posted by formulate

Another option would be attempting to trade up back into the first round. What would the 34th and 54th picks be worth in terms of first round position? 25 or so? Might be worth it if someone like Roland McKeown slides a bit.

Just going by recent historical value:

2005 Avalanche traded #27 to Caps for #47 and #52
2006 Wings traded #29 to Coyotes for #41 and #47
2007 Caps traded #28 to Sharks for #41 and #57
2008 Ducks traded #28 to Coyotes for #35 and #39
2009 Wings traded #29 to Lightning for #32 and #75
2010 Hawks traded #30 to Islanders for #35 and #58
2011 Wings traded #24 to Senators for #35 and #48


So going by that value of the two second round picks could net a very late 1st round pick.

[ForeverFlameFan]

^ With a weak draft I don't think it's worth it. Drafting more guys is the better way to go, and getting 5 picks in the top 90 should suffice. We have a top 5 first rounder, don't think we have to really get another one unless Burke really wants to.

[formulate]

Originally Posted by sureLoss

Just going by recent historical value:

2005 Avalanche traded #27 to Caps for #47 and #52
2006 Wings traded #29 to Coyotes for #41 and #47
2007 Caps traded #28 to Sharks for #41 and #57
2008 Ducks traded #28 to Coyotes for #35 and #39
2009 Wings traded #29 to Lightning for #32 and #75
2010 Hawks traded #30 to Islanders for #35 and #58
2011 Wings traded #24 to Senators for #35 and #48


So going by that value of the two second round picks could net a very late 1st round pick.

Cheers!

Bolded seem to be the closest packages to what we have in second-rounders. Looks like the return would be a function of circumstances (who is available, who is willing to trade down, etc). Unless there is a guy who really slides in the draft, it's probably best to just use both picks. Or perhaps package one with a player to move up a little more.

[BigFlameDog]

Originally Posted by sureLoss

Flames chances after win over the Lightning (includes lottery odds)

1st overall 9.8%
2nd overall 0.0%
3rd overall 0.0%
4th overall 39.2%
5th overall 41.5%
6th overall 8.7%
7th overall 0.7%
8th overall 0.1%
9th overall 0.0%
10th overall 0.0%

Top Scenarios (accounts for 99% of possible outcomes):
39.2% Flames finish 27th and retain 4th overall pick
21.1% Flames finish 27th and get bumped to 5th overall pick
20.3% Flames finish 26th and get 5th overall pick
7.2% Flames finish 27th and win the lottery for 1st overall
6.9% Flames finish 26th and get bumped down to 6th overall
2.4% Flames finish 26th and win the lottery for 1st overall
1.8% Flames finish 25h and retain the 6th overall pick

I have surprised myself by realizing I would be quite pissy if we dropped lower than whatever pick we deserved due to the lottery.....

[sureLoss]

Originally Posted by fotze

When is the lottery day?

I cannot find it online for the life of me.

http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/feature/?id=115803

The 2014 NHL Draft Lottery will take place live on TSN on Tuesday, April 15.

[formulate]

Originally Posted by fotze

When is the lottery day?

I cannot find it online for the life of me.

The 2014 NHL Draft Lottery will take place live on TSN on Tuesday, April 15. The 2014 NHL Draft will take place June 27-28 in Philadelphia.

http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/feature/?id=115803

EDIT: Don't know why I bother...

[Table 5]

I'm glad they do it before the playoffs and throw us scrubs a bone instead of making us wait a few more months. This way we can at least pinpoint our draft speculation.

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by formulate

I have been thinking the same thing. Likely throw a goalie in there with one of the third-rounders, but going D-heavy seems like the prudent thing to do.

Echo this as well. Grab a forward with that first pick, a goaltender with a middle pick, and D the rest of the way down. The first round is pretty forward heavy but there are interesting defenders projected in the 2nd round (Dougherty, Pettersson, Sanheim, Vanier etc. etc.)

[Poe969]

See, I think the exact opposite...depending on who's available. If we can find a way to get Ekblad I think we should and if we do then I'd grab some forwards with the mid picks. If we get a forward with our first pick, then grab a couple d in the mid picks but 2nd rounders should probably be for forwards anyway.

It's great to say what we should/could do but it all depends on who wins the lottery and who's still available with our pick.

I'd love Ekblad first, Lemieux with our second, and then end up with 2 D and 3 F with our 5 top 90 picks.

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

There is a reason why most scouting services have Ekblad #1 at the moment. Frankly this forward crop is underwhelming compared to previous years so it's possible that Ekblad is just the best player available. And he might be the best player available without being a franchise defenseman because none of the forwards may be franchise forwards either. This does look like a weaker draft.

Agreed. I have my doubts any of Reinhart, Bennet, or Draisatl turn into number one centres. Ekblad doesn't have to be a franchise d-man to be the best player available in the draft. And saying you can pick up guys like him later in the draft is putting a lot of faith in getting very, very lucky.