I think if either Florida or Edmonton picks second, both teams would take Ekblad if he's available. Both organizations need that defensive anchor. This will all depend on Buffalo's move. If they take Ekblad first, then which of the centers falls to us at 4th could be a complete toss up, as I could see Florida picking Bennett or Reinhart, and I could see Edmonton valuing Draisaitl above even Reinhart.
Of course this is assuming Buffalo takes the lottery. I just hope to the heavens that no team below us gets lucky.
Yeah I don't see Ekblad getting to 4. I can't see Florida passing on him for another center since they got their guy last year. The real wildcard this year is how much Edmonton likes Draisaitl. I think they like him enough to take him at 3 if Ekblad is off the board, but if they're at 2, or if they win the lottery and are at 1, do they really take him? I can't see it. I think if Edmonton wins the lottery, they take Reinhart, then Bennett and Ekblad go to Buffalo and Florida in either order.
Top Scenarios (accounts for 99% of possible outcomes):
39.2% Flames finish 27th and retain 4th overall pick
21.1% Flames finish 27th and get bumped to 5th overall pick
20.3% Flames finish 26th and get 5th overall pick
7.2% Flames finish 27th and win the lottery for 1st overall
6.9% Flames finish 26th and get bumped down to 6th overall
2.4% Flames finish 26th and win the lottery for 1st overall
1.8% Flames finish 25h and retain the 6th overall pick
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Top Scenarios (accounts for 99% of possible outcomes):
39.2% Flames finish 27th and retain 4th overall pick
21.1% Flames finish 27th and get bumped to 5th overall pick
20.3% Flames finish 26th and get 5th overall pick
7.2% Flames finish 27th and win the lottery for 1st overall
6.9% Flames finish 26th and get bumped down to 6th overall
2.4% Flames finish 26th and win the lottery for 1st overall
1.8% Flames finish 25h and retain the 6th overall pick
How can Isles be ahead of us and have a game in hand yet our chances of 5th overall are higher?
Or that 2% difference is saying that a team behind us can the lottery and bump us down? I guess that!
How can Isles be ahead of us and have a game in hand yet our chances of 5th overall are higher?
Or that 2% difference is saying that a team behind us can the lottery and bump us down? I guess that!
The 41.5% chance that the Flames get the 5th overall pick is the sum of the chances that the Flames get bumped down in the lottery to 5th (21.1%) and that the Islanders finish below the Flames with the lottery falls such that the Flames get the 5th overall pick (20.3%).
If you don't include the lottery we still have a 68% chance of finishing 27th. That's the number that makes sense to me as the lottery is just pure chance.
If you don't include the lottery we still have a 68% chance of finishing 27th. That's the number that makes sense to me as the lottery is just pure chance.
To each his own, but that 68% doesn't reflect the fact that after all scenarios and lottery play out the Flames have a slightly higher chance to get the 5th pick than the 4th pick.
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To each his own, but that 68% doesn't reflect the fact that after all scenarios and lottery play out the Flames have a slightly higher chance to get the 5th pick than the 4th pick.
For me it's one thing at a time. First get the 4th worst finish, than worry about the bingo balls. I'm not saying I don't appreciate your odds as well but ...
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At this point I'd be ecstatic with either of Bennett or Draisaitl.
I don't care that Draisaitl likes the Oilers.... Who do you think Iginla liked growing up in St. Albert? What about Ryan Smyth and Jason Smith, being from Calgary?
Once you go pro, favorites go out the window. Unless you're Tom Erixon, in which case you just never crack a roster.
Here's what picks 4-5-6 looked like for the ten years between 2000 and 2010, just to see.
2000:
R. Klesla - CBJ
R. Torres - NYI
S. Hartnell - NSH
2001:
S. Weisse - FLA
S. Chistov - ANA
M. Koivu - MIN
2002:
J. Pitkanen - PHI
R. Whitney - PIT
S. Upshall - NSH
2003:
N. Zherdev - CBJ
T. Vanek - BUF
M. Michalek - SJS
2004:
B. Wheeler - PHX
A. Montoya - NYR
R. Olesz - FLA
2005:
B. Pouliot - MIN
C. Price - MTL
G. Brule - CBJ
2006:
N. Backstrom - WSH
P. Kessel - BOS
D. Brassard - CBJ
2007:
T. Hickey - LAK
K. Alzner - WSH
S. Gagner - EDM
2008:
A. Pietrangelo - STL
L. Schenn - TOR
N. Filatov - CBJ
2009:
E. Kane - ATL
B. Schenn - LAK
O. Ekman-Larsson - PHX
2010:
R. Johansen - CBJ
N. Niederreiter - NYI
B. Connolly - CAR
To my eye, I don't see a consistent trend in any one of those picks being better than any other over time, however clearly there are years when any one of 4-5-6 will prove to be the best player, but looking at these picks makes me want to win the lottery.
Also, Columbus sucks goat at drafting, that's one thing we've learned.
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Just watched the Top Prospects game finally (had PVR'd it elsewhere cause I worked that night). First chance to see a full game of many of these guys. Here are my scouting reports
Ekblad: Doesn't look as big as advertised cause he skates a bit hunched over. Definitely stronger than Jones was. But not as dynamic of a skater as Jones or as good of an outlet passer. Has a better point shot. He always loads up for the one timer in the offensive zone and his point shot is an absolute bomb. Wasn't amazing but solid. He would compliment our group well because we lack his size and strength and we have the puck rushers to surround him (Brodie, Gio, Russell.) Outside of Wideman who I'm not convinced is a long term solution for us we lack a right handed point shot of his calibre.
Reinhart: Probably one of the worst skaters I've seen for a guy who could go #1 overall. He isn't overly big, strong, speedy or flashy. Doesn't have the dynamic stick handling or overpowering shot of other prospects. We all know his strengths are hockey sense, vision, positioning and passing. One of those sneaky guys. Had a couple bad giveaways in his own zone trying to make cutesy passes including one straight into the slot for a good chance for the opposition. Has the hands to finish in close. Reminds me in style a bit of Monahan but isn't as big or strong and may have not as good of a wrist shot. May have better vision/passing though. Overall based on that game I wouldn't be thrilled to take him #1. A little unsure of how his game will translate if he doesn't get a lot stronger and faster.
Draisaitl: I think the concerns on his skating long term may be a bit overblown. Has a powerful stride but needs a bit more quickness and leg strength. Can really lug the puck up the ice. Plays with a crazy huge blade on his stick and is always presenting it as a passing option for teammates. Loves the give and go and has excellent vision and passing. Didn't do too much in this game but his line mates weren't great and I think he's the kind of player that needs to develop chemistry with his line mates as he's a passer first. WAY stronger than Reinhart/Bennett from what I've seen. Shields the puck a lot better. Reminded me stylistically of Ryan Johansen of the BJs.
Dal Colle: Quite impressed by him. Absolutely lethal shot. Murray is right when he says his release is the best he's seen in a while, I'd have to agree. Reminded me stylistically of Corey Perry with his lethal shot, big frame and reach. When he fills out he'll be hard to get the puck off of. Not sure he'll ever be as pesky as Perry.
Ritchie: Love his style of game. Always driving the net. Stuck up for teammates. Looked for some big hits. Made some nice subtle passes in the offensive zone and showed some decent vision. Unfortunately didn't get to see much of his shot. Obviously has the best size/strength combo at the top end. One of those rare natural power forwards with skill.
Virtanen: Not that impressive. Obviously has speed and had one nice slap shot. Seemed a bit of a one trick pony just blazing up the wing and then around the net if he didn't blow past the defenseman. Didn't see any vision/passing. Didn't seem that big. And I didn't see the power forward type game that some have described him as having. If he does play it he plays it inconsistently. Not sure what he'll be at the NHL level if he can't blow past better defenders. I don't think he's in contention for our pick.
Perlini: Also had great speed and looked a bit bigger than Virtanen. He didn't show a ton either but I liked his game slightly better.
Fleury: Good size/strength. Decent mobility. Nothing outstanding in terms of offensive skills in this game but he did jump up a couple times. Definitely a solid defender but I'm not sure he has top pairing potential. I like the forwards better.
De Leo: Didn't like some of his decisions. Didn't see enough to offset his size. Hope we stay away in later rounds.
MacInnis: Nice size and skating on him. Didn't do too much but was intriguing.
McCann: Scored a beauty goal. Some showed nice size, skating, puck handling and shot. Not good enough to be in consideration for our pick but unlikely to be there in the 2nd.
Bennett: Was injured and wasn't playing. But based on extensive highlight packages I've seen he has a lot more speed and competitiveness than Reinhart/Draisaitl. I think he'd be a great fit for the Flames and a nice compliment to Monahan who is very similar to Reinhart. Has that extra gear to blow past people, great shot and vision. I can see why CSS likes him near the top.
My updated rankings are:
1. Ekblad (he didn't wow me but he's a great fit for us IMO)
2. Bennett (speed and competitiveness give him the edge for me)
T3. Reinhart
T3. Draisaitl (toss up for me)
5. Dal Colle (lethal shot, big frame, good offensive skill)
6. Ritchie (one of those rare skilled power forwards)
Nice to know we'll get one of the above. Not sure anybody else should be in consideration. Hopefully we end up with a top 5 pick, hopefully top 4. I'm not sure Dal Colle is as far behind the top few as some think he is.
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Well I promise you'll be a happy man - because if we keep our 4th overall that's who we're projected to end up with lol.
Not sure why you believe that. This top 4 is wide open and will ultimately depend on who picks where. The order of the top 4 could be completely different if different teams were picking there.
Burke said as much in his interview at the top prospects game. He said you could look at 20 different teams lists of the top 10 and you'd get 20 completely different order.
Any of Bennett, Reinhart, Ekblad or Draisaitl could go #1, I sincerely believe that. So there's no point saying we're projected to get this guy or that guy at #4 because it's that wide open.
Last edited by Flames Draft Watcher; 04-03-2014 at 10:47 PM.
