Ukraine Presidential Crackdown Violence. Russia Invades Ukraine

[FlameOn]

Janes is reporting Ukraine's navy is now facing an existential crisis with the bulk of their command structure and 12k of the total 15k personnel have been captured, surrendered or defected to Russia after being surrounded in the bases, boxed into the lake, not receiving proper orders from Kiev and not allowed to leave over the past few weeks. Almost the entirety of their naval warships have also been captured.
http://www.janes.com/article/35861/u...ve-into-crimea

[Rerun]

I find this hard to believe...

The scale of the crisis facing the Ukrainian navy is apparent from the fact that around 12,000 of its 15,450 personnel were based in Crimea when Russia intervened on 27 February. Over the past three weeks, the majority of the Ukrainian military personnel on Crimea have defected to the Russian military or resigned from military service, according to announcements by the new pro-Kremlin administration in Crimea. Some independent media reports appear to broadly support Russian claims in this regard.

http://www.janes.com/article/35861/u...ve-into-crimea

[worth]

In one of the vice reports a Ukrainian Naval commander said he had 130 men under his command and he lost 70 to defection. So that's 54% defection rate on that one instance. I think those were the numbers, someone correct me if i'm wrong. In any event, it was over 50%.

[Fozzie_DeBear]

I think Putin will lay back for a bit to see how America and Europe respond. And we won't see any more trouble until his popularity drops and he does something to stoke nationalist sentiment.

[nik-]

http://mobile.reuters.com/article/id...40324?irpc=932

70 billion of capital pulled out of Russia in the first quarter of the year. Keep up the good work Puty baby.

[CaptainCrunch]

Well, Militarily the picture is certainly becoming clearer

http://news.nationalpost.com/2014/03...itory-moldova/

Fears that Russia could claw back a second chunk of former Soviet territory in Europe grew on Sunday after NATO warned that Moscow’s troops were poised to move into a pro-Russian enclave of Moldova.

While this doesn't mean that Russia is going to take the Ukraine, it gives Putin some interesting options depending on the composition of troops that he moves into the Moldova enclave.




With the resignation of the Ukraine's defense minister and a dissasembled military, if Nato doesn't re-enforce the Ukraine with heavy weapons, or establish a air umbrella, Ukraine will be in a weakened state that the Russians will certainly take advantage of.

Sorry for the crappiness of the map drawing, I threw it together in about 2 minutes.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by nik-

http://mobile.reuters.com/article/id...40324?irpc=932

70 billion of capital pulled out of Russia in the first quarter of the year. Keep up the good work Puty baby.

This will break them. Once it cuts deep enough to measurably affect standard of living, some of the republics within the Russian Federation will start to show their displeasure and cause internal problems.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

This will break them. Once it cuts deep enough to measurably affect standard of living, some of the republics within the Russian Federation will start to show their displeasure and cause internal problems.

Or further galvanize the Russians against the West.

It could also spur Putin to consolidate what he's got and position to threaten.

I don't think that your going to see instant results from these sanctions.

[Tyler]

Anyone else find it intriguing that Harper is the most vocal G7 leader condemning Putin?

He's throwing out pot shots about him every chance he gets.

I've really noticed over the last few years Harper has taken every opportunity to pump of Canada's 'put up or shut up' attitude on the world stage.

Is this a good thing? Bad thing? Strictly a political thing?

Are we going to have a war over the Arctic because he doesn't know how to shut his mouth? Would Trudeau be able to do any of this if he was in power?

[CaptainCrunch]

I like what Harper is doing on the Ukraine file. I don't think that Harper talking about the Ukraine is going to effect the Russian's attacking the arctic.

When that whole pot boils over it won't matter who says what.

Would Trudeau do the same thing? Don't know, I haven't gotten a handle on what his handlers would have him say.

[nik-]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

Or further galvanize the Russians against the West.

It could also spur Putin to consolidate what he's got and position to threaten.

I don't think that your going to see instant results from these sanctions.

It will work unless they cave and remove them. Again, this isn't the type of thing that galvanizes a population for any real amount of time. This isn't a "come together for mother Russia" moment. It's not an attack on Russian sovereignty, it's business refusing to work with them anymore because of the actions of their leader.

At first they may be mad at the West for it, but if it continues, the real reason the sanctions exist will face pressure. Basically, Russians can choose land or wealth, as limited as their wealth even was.

[Senator Clay Davis]

Its pretty easy for the PM, regardless who he is, to talk strongly about foreign policy when we have the biggest, baddest mother ####er on our side. Just for fun, I would wager there's a 1,000% chance that if the US came out with a position that was the exact opposite of what a PM publicly stated, that PM would retract his statement quickly.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

Or further galvanize the Russians against the West.

.

Maybe it will galvanize Russians, but economic instability is probably one of the biggest catalysts for extreme nationalism and Russia has enough national minorities with regional majorities that this could become problematic for their unity.

Don't forget that bankrupting Russia through an arms race was what basically destroyed the Soviet Union. The downfall of Yugoslavia also began after Western aid stopped coming in to artificially increase the wealth of the country.

Originally Posted by Tyler

Anyone else find it intriguing that Harper is the most vocal G7 leader condemning Putin?

He's throwing out pot shots about him every chance he gets.

I've really noticed over the last few years Harper has taken every opportunity to pump of Canada's 'put up or shut up' attitude on the world stage.

Is this a good thing? Bad thing? Strictly a political thing?

Are we going to have a war over the Arctic because he doesn't know how to shut his mouth? Would Trudeau be able to do any of this if he was in power?

It makes sense though. Out of all the G7 countries, people of Ukrainian heritage probably make up a larger percentage of voters in Canada.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by nik-

It will work unless they cave and remove them. Again, this isn't the type of thing that galvanizes a population for any real amount of time. This isn't a "come together for mother Russia" moment. It's not an attack on Russian sovereignty, it's business refusing to work with them anymore because of the actions of their leader.

At first they may be mad at the West for it, but if it continues, the real reason the sanctions exist will face pressure. Basically, Russians can choose land or wealth, as limited as their wealth even was.

which is going to be portrayed as a attack on Russia by the West.

Right now by a lot of indications Putin is getting a lot of support from the people in the streets. Russian's also take pride in going through hard ships when they think their right.

I doubt that Russia caves any time soon. I'm more interested in seeing what the ripple effects are from these sanctions.

I'm not saying your wrong, I'm of the belief though that your not necessarily right.

[undercoverbrother]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

It makes sense though. Out of all the G7 countries, people of Ukrainian heritage probably make up a larger percentage of voters in Canada.

Especially in the west.

[nik-]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

which is going to be portrayed as a attack on Russia by the West.

Right now by a lot of indications Putin is getting a lot of support from the people in the streets. Russian's also take pride in going through hard ships when they think their right.

I doubt that Russia caves any time soon. I'm more interested in seeing what the ripple effects are from these sanctions.

I'm not saying your wrong, I'm of the belief though that your not necessarily right.

Which is fine, Pravda can say what it wants, and some farmer in some bumble#### village might eat it up, but some Oil Exec isn't, and that's who matters.

[Itse]

Originally Posted by Rerun

I know we would all like to believe that this invasion is all Putin's fault and its only supported by his puppet Russian government, but the truth is... its not.

The Russian people support Putin and this invasion enormously.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/w...ussia/6564263/

Means nothing, it's just PR. I seriously doubt they ever really asked anyone.

[Daradon]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

Maybe it will galvanize Russians, but economic instability is probably one of the biggest catalysts for extreme nationalism and Russia has enough national minorities with regional majorities that this could become problematic for their unity.

Don't forget that bankrupting Russia through an arms race was what basically destroyed the Soviet Union. The downfall of Yugoslavia also began after Western aid stopped coming in to artificially increase the wealth of the country.

Was going to mention exactly those two points. It could galvanize Russia for a little while, maybe even bolstering Putin's government for a few years. But eventually it will work, starting with both the national minorities as you mentioned, and pro western Russians who are already against a lot of Putin's moves (think the protesters since he took over). Agreed there are still a lot of people that think things were truly better under the Soviet Union, but the amount of Russians that don't believe the anti-west propaganda and realize that more people will be helped with a freer government shouldn't be understated.

The only question is will Europe have the resolve to dig as deep as it takes? If sanctions need to be held for a few years, will they do it? It'll hurt Canada and the US too, but not nearly the same way. Not saying we have stronger resolve on the issue, just that we have less to lose.

[19Yzerman19]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

Its pretty easy for the PM, regardless who he is, to talk strongly about foreign policy when we have the biggest, baddest mother ####er on our side. Just for fun, I would wager there's a 1,000% chance that if the US came out with a position that was the exact opposite of what a PM publicly stated, that PM would retract his statement quickly.

It just occurred to me that the role Harper is playing here is the same as that of the VP candidate in U.S. Presidential Elections - the hatchet man who just buries the opponent with negativity. Perhaps this is orchestrated.

[FlameOn]

Updated tally of Ukrainian naval ships seized by Russian army. They did this all without firing a single shot. Even if the ships are old, the amount of money needed for Russia to build this many ships would be nuts. They essentially got these all for free at the cost of one Ukrainian soldiers life and by starving out/intimidating the rest of the holdouts.


Meanwhile Russia's parked an entire tank division a few hours outside of Kiev.