Ukraine Presidential Crackdown Violence. Russia Invades Ukraine

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by T@T

Hate to say it but it's probably going take a military threat to get Putin to back off, he's a bully and that's the only thing he understands.

Move a couple of F-22 raptor squadrons into Turkey,Romania and Greece and do a couple low flyby's in the Black Sea, pop a couple of ohio class Subs up for a look in the Marmara Sea and make sure the Russian's see a couple of bad ass carriers within striking distance as well.

You simply can't allow this turd to run around Europe taking lands/countries and threatening to arm ###### countries like Iran with nukes. Tell him, get out and go home or we'll push you home.

Interesting.

A couple of things. Putting Ohio class submarines in there is a huge provocation, they are a strategic platform and not a tactical platform. Their only true offensive capability is nuclear based. Your basically telling the Russians that your only answer is a nuclear one.

This would be equivalent to a Typhoon popping up right off of the coast of New York and opening its missile doors.

As it stands the prudent thing to do would be for Obama to announce that he's dispatched a pair of Virginia or even a Seawolf to the area to patrol.

that would change the Russian Navy's operational orders and tempo.

The American's used to do it to China all the time when they got randy in exercising near Taiwan. Half the time they wouldn't even dispatch the subs


The rest you can do and that's fine. My concern with putting the carriers there or a major U.S. task force near a Russian Task force is that mistakes absolutely will happen and you will either end up with dead people, or you will end up with what's called a ramming war.

The F-22 move is what I've been advocating, the Russians have moved up what they call an air defense division, so it would be an interesting turning battle as the Russians would be able to see if they can lock on or not.

It also sounds like Putin is going old school and demanding repayment of the Ukraines 15 billion dollar debt to Russia.

[FlameOn]

I think their economy might be in trouble already, Putin is calling on the billionaires of Russia to pay their taxes.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/101510510

Putin might be doing some domestic invasions soon if things get tough.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by nik-

I think it would be better to collapse their economy so his people can see:

A: how fragile their piece of #### country is
B: where the real power in Russia lies when his money power base turns on him.

If you go that far then the Russia's will lash out in the only way that they can. If you collapse their economy you will guarantee a significant military counter.

We're not dealing with some third world country with a third world military run by inexperienced leaders. You are dealing with a very powerful country a very decent and pretty modern military and a leader that is clearly not afraid to impose his will.

And if you collapse their economy, it will have serious economic repercussions world wide. Nothings in a vacuum.

also if you go after their economy and kill it, you will make the Russian's feel incredibly vulnerable and threatened and they will probably at that point roll the dice and go hard after the European Nato countries.

[nik-]

We're dealing with a borderline third world country, a country that totally would be third world if it wasn't for an abundance of gas, with a good military and nuclear bombs.

They'll respond by replacing Putin and backing down or sliding further. They won't win their economic stability back be increasing military expenditures or starting a war.

Of course it will have worldwide repercussions, but so is letting Russia chip away at parts of countries where their diaspora moved. Pancake their economy, and then see how popular the shirtless mouth breather is.

[nik-]

Originally Posted by T@T

By the time you collapse their economy the world economy will be in trouble. I do agree with "B" but again that would take a long time.

Yup, it will be painful for a lot of people. At this point though, with their leader, I think it's either tough economic times, or blood.

You either bloody them up at who knows what cost to our people. Or show his power base that the financial cost isn't worth letting him play tough guy.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by nik-

We're dealing with a borderline third world country, a country that totally would be third world if it wasn't for an abundance of gas, with a good military and nuclear bombs.

They'll respond by replacing Putin and backing down or sliding further. They won't win their economic stability back be increasing military expenditures or starting a war.

Of course it will have worldwide repercussions, but so is letting Russia chip away at parts of countries where their diaspora moved. Pancake their economy, and then see how popular the shirtless mouth breather is.

I have my doubts about your thesis here with all due respect. Putin has built a strong power base and has rewritten their "Constitution" to give him a great deal of power, he's not going anywhere, plus there is a lot of government backing and military backing for what he's done.

If you pancake their economy the Russian's will read it as a similar hostile act to Nato piling up at their border and the need to build a buffer will suddenly become a key strategic viewpoint.

Also in terms of bloodying them up, if the Russians do go after the nato nations in Europe it will devastate the already shaky EU.

I agree that you can't Chamberlain in this situation, but the time for confrontation was a a while back, Nato basically gave Putin permission to annex Crimea by wringing their hands and not strengthening Nato forces in Europe

Pancaking Russia's economy will also change the average Russian's position and resolve and could make Putin more popular with his people as he raises the rhetoric.

At this point because of a weak response the world is probably going to have to accept that Crimea is now Russia and militarily re-enforce the Nato border states to show Putin their intentions.

[nik-]

Well there's three choices at this point.

1. Let him keep going
2. Pile up forces in neighbouring NATO countries and sacrifice Ukraine
3. Crush Putin's moneyed friends.

Economic sanctions might strengthen resolve at first, but eventually it's going to break. It's not like this is a legitimate war. It's not the British hardening during the Blitz, it's not the Russians hardening the closer the Nazi's got to Moscow, it's business turning off the tap because their leader is acting like a goof.

[T@T]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

Interesting.

A couple of things. Putting Ohio class submarines in there is a huge provocation, they are a strategic platform and not a tactical platform. Their only true offensive capability is nuclear based. Your basically telling the Russians that your only answer is a nuclear one.

Just getting down to grit before putin would

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

This would be equivalent to a Typhoon popping up right off of the coast of New York and opening its missile doors.

The minute it opened any door it would be taken on water, if it somehow made it close to the coast...this you know

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

As it stands the prudent thing to do would be for Obama to announce that he's dispatched a pair of Virginia or even a Seawolf to the area to patrol.

that would change the Russian Navy's operational orders and tempo.

The American's used to do it to China all the time when they got randy in exercising near Taiwan. Half the time they wouldn't even dispatch the subs

I think Putin would just smurk at this.

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

The rest you can do and that's fine. My concern with putting the carriers there or a major U.S. task force near a Russian Task force is that mistakes absolutely will happen and you will either end up with dead people, or you will end up with what's called a ramming war.

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

The F-22 move is what I've been advocating, the Russians have moved up what they call an air defense division, so it would be an interesting turning battle as the Russians would be able to see if they can lock on or not.

They will see them, just in time when the lights go out!

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

It also sounds like Putin is going old school and demanding repayment of the Ukraines 15 billion dollar debt to Russia.

Doesn't everyone in the east owe Russia money? that's a lot of conquering to do

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by T@T

Just getting down to grit before putin would

Sure but using a strategic asset is a big step up from using a tactical asset. Suddenly throwing a Typhoon out there which is a platform for WMD's would be a really sill provocation.

Originally Posted by T@T

The minute it opened any door it would be taken on water, if it somehow made it close to the coast...this you know

Yeah, I know I was trying to make a point about dragging the flag. America has had some trouble tracking Russian subs recently including one of the Russian's new Sierra 2's sneaking within 275 miles of the florida coast, and within detection range of a American carrier group doing workups. Now the Sierra 2 is a tactical platform however it can carry nuclear tipped land attack cruise missiles. But imagine the panic by the U.S. Navy if they detected a Typhoon within 300 miles of the coast which puts it in range of the nightmare scenario of a depressed trajectory shot.

Originally Posted by T@T

I think Putin would just smurk at this.

I agree that he probably would, plus the day and age of the American Submarine force having a vast sound and sensor advantage submarine wise appears to be coming to a close as the new generation of Russian subs and the upgraded classes of current Russian Subs are fairly equivalent performance wise to American Subs up to the Seawolf class. Even the Virginia Class is not really the anti sub platform that it was thought to be.

Originally Posted by T@T

They will see them, just in time when the lights go out!

Possibly, but the F-22 isn't the greatest land attack option, it doesn't carry much of a punch in terms of air to ground, its more designed as a pure interceptor then anything else. While it went through modifications of its internal bomb bay to carry bombs or atg misiles its not what its made for.

Originally Posted by T@T

Doesn't everyone in the east owe Russia money? that's a lot of conquering to do

Yup, don't know how this is going to play out, I'm just throwing out some thoughts on it, but in true Captain fashion I could be completely wrong.

[Zulu29]

Originally Posted by nik-

We're dealing with a borderline third world country, a country that totally would be third world if it wasn't for an abundance of gas, with a good military and nuclear bombs.

They'll respond by replacing Putin and backing down or sliding further. They won't win their economic stability back be increasing military expenditures or starting a war.

Of course it will have worldwide repercussions, but so is letting Russia chip away at parts of countries where their diaspora moved. Pancake their economy, and then see how popular the shirtless mouth breather is.

Canada would be a third world country if not for our abundance of oil and gas and raw materials. If you pancake their economy (which I'm not certain would be so easy), they react by turning off the energy taps to the rest of Europe and plunge the region into recession again, possibly dragging the world with it.

Crimea is gone, there is nothing anyone can do about it and frankly it seems that it wanted it join Russia anyway. It was Russian for centuries before being handed over ceremoniously in the 50's after all.

The main thing now is to strengthen NATO presence in the region and wait. Personally I think Putin is done with his land grabs. He wanted the Black Sea naval base secured. He's got that now, he can now brag up national pride to his citizens. He may be crazy, but I don't think he's crazy enough to start a war with NATO. He'll ride out the sanctions(they'll end eventually), he'll miss out on the G-8 for a year or so bad then everything will return if the status quo.

[FlamesAddiction]

It sounds like there was an escalation today with shots being fired as one of the Crimean air bases was raided.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/ukraine...base-1.2582718

[nik-]

Originally Posted by Zulu29

Canada would be a third world country if not for our abundance of oil and gas and raw materials. If you pancake their economy (which I'm not certain would be so easy), they react by turning off the energy taps to the rest of Europe and plunge the region into recession again, possibly dragging the world with it.

Crimea is gone, there is nothing anyone can do about it and frankly it seems that it wanted it join Russia anyway. It was Russian for centuries before being handed over ceremoniously in the 50's after all.

The main thing now is to strengthen NATO presence in the region and wait. Personally I think Putin is done with his land grabs. He wanted the Black Sea naval base secured. He's got that now, he can now brag up national pride to his citizens. He may be crazy, but I don't think he's crazy enough to start a war with NATO. He'll ride out the sanctions(they'll end eventually), he'll miss out on the G-8 for a year or so bad then everything will return if the status quo.

Them turning off the energy tabs pretty much exponentially increases the economic impact. They may do it for a bit, out of spite and stubbornness, but the fact remains that that is legitimately the only way they make real money. They can't just stop selling their only commodity.

And no, Canada would not be a third world country. Oil products are about 17% of our exports, in Russia it's 70%. There's also a lot more to being third world than just money. Like quality of life, political freedoms, freedom of speech.

Crimea is gone for sure, there's no doubt, probably eastern Ukraine too, it can't just be accepted or he takes more.

As for it being Russia before, again it doesn't matter. The world is full of places that historically belonged to someone else. Other countries get over it. Russia goes moronic.

[Zulu29]

Originally Posted by nik-

Them turning off the energy tabs pretty much exponentially increases the economic impact. They may do it for a bit, out of spite and stubbornness, but the fact remains that that is legitimately the only way they make real money. They can't just stop selling their only commodity.

And no, Canada would not be a third world country. Oil products are about 17% of our exports, and there's a lot more to being third world than just money. Like quality of life, political freedoms, freedom of speech.

Crimea is gone for sure, there's no doubt, probably eastern Ukraine too, it can't just be accepted or he takes more.

As for it being Russia before, again it doesn't matter. The world is full of places that historically belonged to someone else. Other countries get over it. Russia goes moronic.

I'm willing to bet that the Chinese, Japanese and Indians would be more than willing to fill the customer void left by Europe.

And you're right, Russia would be willing to shoot itself in the foot in order to extract pain and suffering from Europe which is the problem! They do not care. So you're going to risk the world going into recession AGAIN after we just crawled out of one over a little island in the Black Sea that half of the people in the world don't know or care about? Putin knows this and knows what's at stake. That's why he won this round. Funny how the US and Canada are all over sanctions while Europe remains fairly quiet. They know what's at stake.

[nik-]

I think you're overestimating how much the Russians are just willing to eat a bowl of #### for Putin's adventures.

[Zulu29]

Originally Posted by nik-

I think you're overestimating how much the Russians are just willing to eat a bowl of #### for Putin's adventures.

I think you're overestimating how much the west can hurt the Russian economy without suffering dire consequences. Putin outmanoeuvred the west on this one.

[PIMking]

Originally Posted by Zulu29

Canada would be a third world country if not for our abundance of oil and gas and raw materials. If you pancake their economy (which I'm not certain would be so easy), they react by turning off the energy taps to the rest of Europe and plunge the region into recession again, possibly dragging the world with it.

Crimea is gone, there is nothing anyone can do about it and frankly it seems that it wanted it join Russia anyway. It was Russian for centuries before being handed over ceremoniously in the 50's after all.

The main thing now is to strengthen NATO presence in the region and wait. Personally I think Putin is done with his land grabs. He wanted the Black Sea naval base secured. He's got that now, he can now brag up national pride to his citizens. He may be crazy, but I don't think he's crazy enough to start a war with NATO. He'll ride out the sanctions(they'll end eventually), he'll miss out on the G-8 for a year or so bad then everything will return if the status quo.

Is Russia going to hand over Königsberg?

[Zulu29]

Originally Posted by PIMking

Is Russia going to hand over Königsberg?

I don't understand the point of your question. Is Russia going to hand it over to Poland or Lithuania? Of course not. Does Poland or Lithuania have the ability to take it from Russia? No. Does the area want to leave Russia to join Poland or Lithuania? I don't know much about the area but I doubt they have any reason or desire to leave Russia. You're comparing apples to oranges.

[PIMking]

Originally Posted by Zulu29

I don't understand the point of your question. Is Russia going to hand it over to Poland or Lithuania? Of course not. Does Poland or Lithuania have the ability to take it from Russia? No. Does the area want to leave Russia to join Poland or Lithuania? I don't know much about the area but I doubt they have any reason or desire to leave Russia. You're comparing apples to oranges.

Well you said that the Crimea is Russian before. So Königsberg going to be handed back over to the Germans? It was German before Russian

[Zulu29]

Originally Posted by PIMking

Well you said that the Crimea is Russian before. So Königsberg going to be handed back over to the Germans? It was German before Russian

Yeah....and the fact that they voted to join Russia.

[PeteMoss]

"voted"