Ukraine Presidential Crackdown Violence. Russia Invades Ukraine

[nik-]

Originally Posted by Iggy City

True, but they do export a ton of oil (2nd largest exporter I believe). Prepare for insane oil/gas price hikes if and when they impose sanctions on their petroleum economy.

That's pretty much their only source of income, it's painful, but more for them than the West.

[nik-]

In reality though, I really don't want war. I just want this relic to drop the sabre rattling bull#### he's been pulling for years. I'd be more than fine with us stopping the NATO expansion too, because why is it happening? The messed up thing is that Russia and NATO were about to do a joint mission in Syria before Mr. Cold War went full ######.

[FlameOn]

Originally Posted by cal_guy

Apparently the ballots for the Crimean referendum don't have "No" box.

http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukra...es-338745.html

Confirmed during voting day. There was no option to vote for "No". i.e. no possible way for the Crimeans to vote to stay with Ukraine and not separate; the only two choices were join Russia or separate from Ukraine. No wonder the response rate was 96% and all the opposition chose to boycott the vote. This is some real Soviet style election right here.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26601487
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/0...n_4947557.html
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...le-choice.html

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by nik-

I think the Bundeswehr, the French and the Americans could beat the Russians badly enough to push them back across their line, and as long as they don't push into Russia, that's where the stalemate would lie.

I would argue that those conditions no longer exist. Russia is entrenched, have mined key travel points and moved up major elements of their Aviation and Heavy Aviation groups for fast turn around.

On top of that you can bet that their Special Forces Groups are already in position to cut communications and logistics tracks.

If you go by the logical doctrine of attacking, you need a 4 to one advantage in tanks, aircraft, advanced arty and infantry. With Russia having two army groups on the border, up to from what I understand 400 fighter/bombers/fighterbombers, and massed artillary and a pretty clear logistics line. You would probably need to put a half million men in the field from the Western side and over 1000 aircraft.

The correlation of forces don't work for the West. Even with all of NATO involved.

Beyond that I don't see the American's as even evaluating a military option, one of the leverage points is to start airlifting assets in as a threat at the start of the Crisis, The American's haven't done that yet.

[PIMking]

Originally Posted by Pointman

Our media report that Crimean authorities proclaimed that Crimea is an independent state from now on.

Your media is worse than Fox News and that is saying a lot. North Korea has better media than than russia

[19Yzerman19]

I don't know if it's Vice doing it but the Russian side does not come off as at all sympathetic in those videos.

[TKB]

Originally Posted by nik-

I think the Bundeswehr, the French and the Americans could beat the Russians badly enough to push them back across their line, and as long as they don't push into Russia, that's where the stalemate would lie.

Agree, I have a hard time believing that the USA, along with any allies that decide to go along with them couldn`t push the Russians back.

[PIMking]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

I would argue that those conditions no longer exist. Russia is entrenched, have mined key travel points and moved up major elements of their Aviation and Heavy Aviation groups for fast turn around.

On top of that you can bet that their Special Forces Groups are already in position to cut communications and logistics tracks.

If you go by the logical doctrine of attacking, you need a 4 to one advantage in tanks, aircraft, advanced arty and infantry. With Russia having two army groups on the border, up to from what I understand 400 fighter/bombers/fighterbombers, and massed artillary and a pretty clear logistics line. You would probably need to put a half million men in the field from the Western side and over 1000 aircraft.

The correlation of forces don't work for the West. Even with all of NATO involved.

Beyond that I don't see the American's as even evaluating a military option, one of the leverage points is to start airlifting assets in as a threat at the start of the Crisis, The American's haven't done that yet.

I am not disagreeing with you but how do you know if the Americans haven't moved special forces around and bombers? It's an honest question, I respect your opinion and just wonder. Besides our president that looks weak in the international community if there was any solid evidence

[PIMking]

Originally Posted by TKB

Agree, I have a hard time believing that the USA, along with any allies that decide to go along with them couldn`t push the Russians back.

Don't forget the us bases in Korea and Japan...

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by PIMking

I am not disagreeing with you but how do you know if the Americans haven't moved special forces around and bombers? It's an honest question, I respect your opinion and just wonder. Besides our president that looks weak in the international community if there was any solid evidence

Its next to impossible to hide the deployment of Bombers and the movement of their munitions.

Now the U.S. does have the B-52 and the B-1 and B-2, and they can stage them out of the States, but doing that effects operational tempo.

The U.S. special forces could be there, but most of those formations still seem to be caught up elsewhere.

But there hasn't been movement out of America Heavy Formations or even light formations, The U.S. has very little in terms of heavy artillery in Europe. Their major strike component right now are the Strykers in Germany, but Strykers do very poorly against main battle tanks.

Personally what Obama should have done when this all started cooking up is to move a infantry division over to back up nato and put out a very public alert for movement order through to a heavy armor unit.

That might have given Russia pause

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by PIMking

Don't forget the us bases in Korea and Japan...

Japan wouldn't get involved. The Russian's have probably already informed them and the Koreans that an attack by American Assets from Japanese or Korean Soil would have the direst of consequences.

[PIMking]

My bil is in the Air Force based in South Dakota where the b1 is. I was told that every jet when they go up just for training maneuvers they are loaded with weapons. Sometimes they will be flying over Arizona and get called to the sandbox and mid air fuel on the way to the desert.

I have a man crush on the b1

[PIMking]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

Japan wouldn't get involved. The Russian's have probably already informed them and the Koreans that an attack by American Assets from Japanese or Korean Soil would have the direst of consequences.

Not Japan, our bases in Japan and Korea.

[Muta]

Sometimes, this world needs to just calm down and have a beer together. In the age of technology, we should be understanding and integrating more.

I don`t think Generation X, Y or newer generations want anything to do with world conflicts, and I hope that stays true.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by PIMking

Not Japan, our bases in Japan and Korea.

I think that's irrelevant, the U.S. can't conduct offensive operations out of those bases without the permission of the host country.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by Muta

Sometimes, this world needs to just calm down and have a beer together. In the age of technology, we should be understanding and integrating more.

I don`t think Generation X, Y or newer generations want anything to do with world conflicts, and I hope that stays true.

Wait a second, most of this generation in government came from the hippy generation, you know the whole "What if a war happened man and nobody showed up man"

We said the same thing about the generation that came out of the first WW1 when it was declared "Never again" and after WW2 when there "had to be a better way"

This generation moving forward will be just as bad.

[Muta]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

Wait a second, most of this generation in government came from the hippy generation, you know the whole "What if a war happened man and nobody showed up man"

We said the same thing about the generation that came out of the first WW1 when it was declared "Never again" and after WW2 when there "had to be a better way"

This generation moving forward will be just as bad.

God I hope not, and I don't think it will be. In the age of social revolutions through the use of technology, instantaneous access to information and a world that continues to get smaller and smaller through communications / checks / balances, I think mentality towards conflict and war will have a shrinking presence. But that's just my opinion.

[Hessen]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

I think that's irrelevant, the U.S. can't conduct offensive operations out of those bases without the permission of the host country.

Wouldn't they just stage out of Guam? or will Chinese airspace become a factor from there?

[Handsome B. Wonderful]

Originally Posted by Muta

Sometimes, this world needs to just calm down and have a beer together. In the age of technology, we should be understanding and integrating more.

I don`t think Generation X, Y or newer generations want anything to do with world conflicts, and I hope that stays true.

How delightfully naive. The whole world does not think the same way as a 20 something year old North American does.

[Coach]

Originally Posted by Muta

Sometimes, this world needs to just calm down and have a beer together. In the age of technology, we should be understanding and integrating more.

I don`t think Generation X, Y or newer generations want anything to do with world conflicts, and I hope that stays true.

I would agree. Anytime these types of conflicts come up I just think "Why are we fighting about this? How does any of this help humanity as a whole?"

All I can think is that the conflicts are driven by the current leaders who grew up in societies with notions of hate, patriotism, and their now gearing their policies towards those feelings. Rather than the feelings of peace and human progress, they have the feelings of paranoia and Country X's progress.