Mike Gillis Letter to Vancouver STH

[FakenHaken]

Originally Posted by Locke

And I think they're going to be disappointed in what Kesler is worth, especially if hes hamstringing them with a limited number of teams.

Couple that with not being exactly a picture of health either. It seems Kesler is held together with duck tape now from year to year.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by Locke

And I think they're going to be disappointed in what Kesler is worth, especially if hes hamstringing them with a limited number of teams.

Disagree. As we can see from fans saying the Canucks were crazy to turn down this or that rumoured offer this deadline I think teams are willing to offer a substantial amount for Kesler. Like more than Jordan Staal got (1st, former 1st, +). If these rumours are true then I think we'll likely see him go around the draft and for a big return. Kesler should fetch quite the ransom IMO. I think some Calgary fans underrate this. That said I don't see many other assets they can move that are comparable. I do think Edler would probably return quite a bit as well.

I'm certainly not as optimistic as Tinordi that they can easily retool. But I don't think people should doubt that Kesler is coveted highly around the league and a few teams will bid hard for him.

[Galakanokis]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

So reminiscent of Calgary. There were rumours for 2 summers that Regehr had been asked to waive his no-trade and declined.

Can't remember if it is/was a direct quote or media speculation but one, Edler I beleive, said I didn't sign a discounted deal to have the team use it to their advantage. Something along that lines. So much crap has gone on around here in two weeks...

[Locke]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

Disagree. As we can see from fans saying the Canucks were crazy to turn down this or that rumoured offer this deadline I think teams are willing to offer a substantial amount for Kesler. Like more than Jordan Staal got (1st, former 1st, +). If these rumours are true then I think we'll likely see him go around the draft and for a big return. Kesler should fetch quite the ransom IMO. I think some Calgary fans underrate this. That said I don't see many other assets they can move that are comparable. I do think Edler would probably return quite a bit as well.

I'm certainly not as optimistic as Tinordi that they can easily retool. But I don't think people should doubt that Kesler is coveted highly around the league and a few teams will bid hard for him.

I have to disagree with you. If theres only a handful of teams allowed at the table they'll all have cap and organizational issues to deal with and it seems that the guy signing Kesler's cheques doesnt want to let him go.

I think Kesler's production for his contract is fair, I just dont see the same value that others are seeing. The only real thing that Kesler has going for him is that hes locked up for two more seasons.

I honestly believe that the Canucks are going to regret walking away from Pittsburgh's offer and the Pens are going to be relieved that they did.

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by Galakanokis

Can't remember if it is/was a direct quote or media speculation but one, Edler I beleive, said I didn't sign a discounted deal to have the team use it to their advantage. Something along that lines. So much crap has gone on around here in two weeks...

They should have dealt him at the draft.

[old-fart]

Originally Posted by Galakanokis

Can't remember if it is/was a direct quote or media speculation but one, Edler I beleive, said I didn't sign a discounted deal to have the team use it to their advantage. Something along that lines. So much crap has gone on around here in two weeks...

If Edler (or anyone else) said that then they are, frankly, a moron.

Why did they sign a discounted deal? Because they hate money? Because they wanted the publicity of being seen as a good guy? Because it was all the team was offering and they really really wanted to play there?

The team got you, in theory, for less than you are worth allowing them to (one or more):

a) Save money and make more profit (or less loss) - team advantage
b) Save on the cap and use that space to sign other players - team advantage
c) Get an asset they could later leverage easier in a trade - team advantage

In every and all cases a "discounted deal" is in the team's advantage. To suggest you are now crying because the team will use that to their advantage is stupid. Edler would be well within his rights to deny a trade to any team he wants to within the provisions of his NTC, but don't try and suggest you didn't sign the discounted deal for the team to gain some advantage.

Idiot.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Galakanokis

Rumors are a few if not all of the home town discount guys will not waive their no trade clauses. Bieksa, Edler, Hamhuis, Garrison are the main ones. It is obvious that Kesler wants out but he has already limited the teams he will waive for. It is not as cut and dry as it looks. Easy to say trade 'em all but what if they don't want to go?

It is guys like Tanev, Higgins and Hansen that might be easier to move but the returns won't be great and they are no exactly the problem with the team.

I agree there are pieces in place but teams that retool general already have the young talent on the team and are ready to step up. By the time the Canucks find or develop the new young talent the established will be on the bad side of 30. Not getting back established prospects for Schneider and Luongo was a huge mistake. The chance of any of their past few draft picks making a big impact in the next couple of years is slim.

If, and that's a big if, they can get a substantial return for Kesler than maybe they might turn things around quickly but I highly doubt it. They may squeak into the playoffs but Western Conference powers right now are all pretty young teams.

It might have been on HNIC (can't remember) but Bieksa said that he is a Canuck "for better or worse" and wants/expects to spend his entire career in Vancouver.

[Locke]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

It might have been on HNIC (can't remember) but Bieksa said that he is a Canuck "for better or worse" and wants/expects to spend his entire career in Vancouver.

I cant imagine why. Its an awful place.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Locke

I cant imagine why. Its an awful place.

There's no accounting for taste

[Galakanokis]

Originally Posted by old-fart

If Edler (or anyone else) said that then they are, frankly, a moron.

Why did they sign a discounted deal? Because they hate money? Because they wanted the publicity of being seen as a good guy? Because it was all the team was offering and they really really wanted to play there?

The team got you, in theory, for less than you are worth allowing them to (one or more):

a) Save money and make more profit (or less loss) - team advantage
b) Save on the cap and use that space to sign other players - team advantage
c) Get an asset they could later leverage easier in a trade - team advantage

In every and all cases a "discounted deal" is in the team's advantage. To suggest you are now crying because the team will use that to their advantage is stupid. Edler would be well within his rights to deny a trade to any team he wants to within the provisions of his NTC, but don't try and suggest you didn't sign the discounted deal for the team to gain some advantage.

Idiot.

Yeah sure but I think it is in reference to being asked to waive a NTC and being traded. I think the player is aware that they are doing the team a favor by taking the discount when they signed, that's why they call it a discount. This is all with regards to essentially doing the team an extra favor. A discounted deal was signed with a NTC so the player could stay not so he could be on an attractive deal for other teams.

[TorqueDog]

Originally Posted by old-fart

If Edler (or anyone else) said that then they are, frankly, a moron.

Why did they sign a discounted deal? Because they hate money? Because they wanted the publicity of being seen as a good guy? Because it was all the team was offering and they really really wanted to play there?

The team got you, in theory, for less than you are worth allowing them to (one or more):

a) Save money and make more profit (or less loss) - team advantage
b) Save on the cap and use that space to sign other players - team advantage
c) Get an asset they could later leverage easier in a trade - team advantage

In every and all cases a "discounted deal" is in the team's advantage. To suggest you are now crying because the team will use that to their advantage is stupid. Edler would be well within his rights to deny a trade to any team he wants to within the provisions of his NTC, but don't try and suggest you didn't sign the discounted deal for the team to gain some advantage.

Idiot.

I hate to defend a Canuck, but this is taking the statement out of context entirely.

When a player signs a discounted deal, it's a compromise where the player will give up cold hard cash in favour of term, no-trade/no-move clauses, etc. The team gets an advantage in cap room and real dollars saved, and the players an advantage in the form of deciding where they get to play, and some peace of mind that they'll be there for a long time.

In the proper context, he's lamenting the team attempting to use the deal they negotiated to their advantage and to his detriment, which is completely reasonable.

[insert classless pejorative here]

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Galakanokis

Can't remember if it is/was a direct quote or media speculation but one, Edler I beleive, said I didn't sign a discounted deal to have the team use it to their advantage. Something along that lines. So much crap has gone on around here in two weeks...

Yeah it sounds like Edler doesn't want to leave which is right seeing Gillis gave him a NMC.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

The good young talent comes from the return in trades you get for Kesler, Edler, Bieksa, etc.

It's not a slam dunk, but you roll the dice and hope the blue chip prospect or the mid-round first you get turn into contributing top 6/top 4 roster players.

The key of course, is you take the deal for those guys while you still can...

Even then, history shows pretty clearly that the return on these sorts of deals are not those that either make or break the future of a franchise. There are very few and far between that have produced future altering results for any team, and I expect that while the return for Kesler at least will be fairly good, it will NOT significantly accelerate the Canucks' rebuild. Any "good young talent" coming back the other way is not at all likely to be of the blue-chip variety. Mid level prospects and mid-level first rounders only rarely turn out on the roll of these dice.

[old-fart]

I agree... well within his rights to bitch about being asked to waive his no trade, and well within his rights to flat out refuse to do so or to provided whatever limited waiver he wants (within whatever the confines of the NTC is... if there is nothing specified he is well within his rights to "pull a St. Louis" and say "I'll go, but only to Pitts" if that's what he wants to do). Just the way it was worded in the original post made it sound like he was bitching about the team using the discounted deal to their advantage - which is also why I said "if Edler said this..."

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

Even then, history shows pretty clearly that the return on these sorts of deals are not those that either make or break the future of a franchise. There are very few and far between that have produced future altering results for any team, and I expect that while the return for Kesler at least will be fairly good, it will NOT significantly accelerate the Canucks' rebuild. Any "good young talent" coming back the other way is not at all likely to be of the blue-chip variety. Mid level prospects and mid-level first rounders only rarely turn out on the roll of these dice.

Wow. Surprises me how many of you think Kesler won't fetch much. Look at how many teams coveted him this trade deadline. It screwed up the Vanek, Moulson and Cammalleri trades because all the contenders wanted Kesler. I think he fetches blue chippers for sure. Some of you are drastically underestimating his value IMO. I guess time will tell. I don't think Vancouver moves him unless they get the kind of great return they are looking for. So far it seems like some teams will bid against each other and come close to meeting that price.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

Wow. Surprises me how many of you think Kesler won't fetch much. Look at how many teams coveted him this trade deadline. It screwed up the Vanek, Moulson and Cammalleri trades because all the contenders wanted Kesler. I think he fetches blue chippers for sure. Some of you are drastically underestimating his value IMO. I guess time will tell.

But the deal that was in place in principle from Pittsburgh's end was not sensational.

What sort of "blue chippers" do any of the contenders have to offer? They won't be parting with much in terms of roster players, all of their prospects who are not roster players will tend to be mid-level prospects from the lower end of the first-round, and all their draft picks will also be well outside of the top ten.

Again, he is 29-years-old, injury prone, three years removed from his last of two 70-point seasons, and has a no-trade clause that pretty seriously affects the team's ability to move him. All this in a market that is about as soft as it has ever been for top-six forwards.

[FAN]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

I think teams are willing to offer a substantial amount for Kesler. Like more than Jordan Staal got (1st, former 1st, +). If these rumours are true then I think we'll likely see him go around the draft and for a big return. Kesler should fetch quite the ransom IMO. I think some Calgary fans underrate this.

I agree with this except for Kesler getting more than Staal. The Staal package involved the 8th overall pick and Brandon Sutter, who was worth around a top 10 pick at the time. I think the Canucks should get a comparable package, but the package the Penguins got for Staal is a pretty good one considering the circumstances. I agree that some Flames fans are underrating the interest in Kesler. He should get the equivalent of a top 10 pick, a young roster player, and a prospect/2nd round pick. Like you said, that's what the Penguins essentially got for Staal and that's what the Flyers got for Richards.

[Tinordi]

Careful FDW, you might be brandished a Canucks fan for the heresy.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

The good young talent comes from the return in trades you get for Kesler, Edler, Bieksa, etc.

It's not a slam dunk, but you roll the dice and hope the blue chip prospect or the mid-round first you get turn into contributing top 6/top 4 roster players.

The key of course, is you take the deal for those guys while you still can. Waiting for them to decline in value is how you go from Schenn/Simmonds to Hanowski/Agostino.

Wait another year on Kesler has he's likely to lose value. A year off of his good contract, with a similar production to now and he's not worth the same amount he was this year. It's a tricky balance.

The Canucks successfully retooled because they had the players from within that were at a prime age when the west coast express was split up. Getting Luongo for Bert was a huge coup for them as well. The twins were 26, Kesler 23, Edler was breaking in his early 20's. Bieksa was in his mid-20's. I don't see them getting that many assets in those prime years for their current vets. The youth they get back will likely still be prospects or lesser players like Sutter is in te Kesler offer

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

But the deal that was in place in principle from Pittsburgh's end was not sensational.

What sort of "blue chippers" do any of the contenders have to offer? They won't be parting with much in terms of roster players, all of their prospects who are not roster players will tend to be mid-level prospects from the lower end of the first-round, and all their draft picks will also be well outside of the top ten.

Again, he is 29-years-old, injury prone, three years removed from his last of two 70-point seasons, and has a no-trade clause that pretty seriously affects the team's ability to move him. All this in a market that is about as soft as it has ever been for top-six forwards.

Rumours were ANA was dangling players like Etem, Vatanen, Palmieri. Kesler is way too young to write off. We've seen plenty of players bounce back from injuries, I don't think too many teams are dropping his value because of that.

Not sure why you say the market is soft. The market for one-dimensional goal scoring wingers at this deadline was soft. But again that market was affected by Kesler being out there. The market for two-way 2nd line centres appeared to be very hot with many teams after Kesler and Legwand. Given more flexibility in the post season in regards to the cap and I think the market will be very hot for a guy like Kesler around the draft or in the summer.

I guess I'm alone in this one. Will be interesting to see what the Nuckleheads do.