Blue Jays 2013/14 off season

[flambers]

Originally Posted by Skaloper

Confirmed this morning he has signed with the Braves. The Jays are going to be in trouble again this season with starters...

Not surprised, Jays are in a tough situation they have a huge hole in terms of quality starters.

A fan has to wonder if the Jays ownership has decided to cap the payroll.... I understand AA has denied this... but the Jays did absolutely nothing in the off season.... seems odd.

They have more depth (pitchers are healthy) this year, but those type of pitchers are more like 5th starter replacements.

Jays could finish way down the list in the American League - East.

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by flambers

A fan has to wonder if the Jays ownership has decided to cap the payroll.... I understand AA has denied this... but the Jays did absolutely nothing in the off season.... seems odd.

I don't think we really have to wonder. For all the reasons we've rehashed the answer has to be "yes". Of course AA denies it... he's not going to publically shame the folk that sign his paycheque, that's a good way to ensure that they stop giving him one. We're stuck with having Hutchison (my guess) and Happ as the back end of the rotation. I like Hutch but I'd like him a whole lot more as the #6 guy who'll pitch when we inevitably hit an injury/unacceptable underperformance rather then lighting a candle on one of the guys under him.

If the team isn't playing meaningful baseball at the deadline the team simply must sell in an attempt to recoup what they (in retrospect) foolishly burned off last year. If they're not going to put an actual effort into contending in the window they bought last year (which was obviously a three year window) then they have to start accumulating for the "next" window.

[flambers]

Originally Posted by Parallex

If the team isn't playing meaningful baseball at the deadline the team simply must sell in an attempt to recoup what they (in retrospect) foolishly burned off last year. If they're not going to put an actual effort into contending in the window they bought last year (which was obviously a three year window) then they have to start accumulating for the "next" window.

Jays in my view have a limited window, while this years team in my view will not be in the mix for the Wild Card.

A fan has to wonder what are the plans going forward.... personally I highly doubt the Jays will go forward with a rebuild.

Next step in mind is a new GM with new direction.

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by flambers

Jays in my view have a limited window, while this years team in my view will not be in the mix for the Wild Card.

You only need look at the $$ committed to see the window...

https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?..._Q&output=html

... only 27.6M dedicated in 2016 (and 22M of that is Jose Reyes). A bunch of options that they could exercise but very little committed money.

Originally Posted by flambers

A fan has to wonder what are the plans going forward.... personally I highly doubt the Jays will go forward with a rebuild.

I don't think they have any choice. If the team isn't close to the post-season at the trade deadline they simply must sell. They have some good contracts that other teams would love to have (pay a premium for) but those guys aren't getting any younger. Year one of the window was lost, if year two goes by and the team isn't in a good position to make the post-season at the deadline then the jays will be in prime position to leverage those assets for real returns. I think the Jays could bend over the Yankee's for Reyes (they're staring at a Jeterless future so will be in the market for a star calibre SS.

[Jiggy_12]

^^^

Yup, jays could fast-track a rebuild really quick with Reyes, Bautista, And Encarnacion potentially as big-time trade bait if they are out of contention. Even Dickey could be attractive and fetch a ton to a contending team.

Not saying I don't want to keep these guys, but if we are out of it in August I don't see a point in trying again with the same group in 2015.

Keep Rasmus, Lawrie, some young arms and build a team around that.

[flambers]

Originally Posted by Jiggy_12

^^^

Yup, jays could fast-track a rebuild really quick with Reyes, Bautista, And Encarnacion potentially as big-time trade bait if they are out of contention. Even Dickey could be attractive and fetch a ton to a contending team.

Not saying I don't want to keep these guys, but if we are out of it in August I don't see a point in trying again with the same group in 2015.

Keep Rasmus, Lawrie, some young arms and build a team around that.

If that occurs, the Jays require a new management team.

Another rebuild without any real success is a potential disaster with respect to season ticket holders (i.e. Fan support will decrease).

It will be really tough to explain....

Just like this off season, nothing happened.... If the result is another struggling team... that will speak volumes

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by Jiggy_12

Yup, jays could fast-track a rebuild really quick with Reyes, Bautista, And Encarnacion potentially as big-time trade bait if they are out of contention. Even Dickey could be attractive and fetch a ton to a contending team.

Not saying I don't want to keep these guys, but if we are out of it in August I don't see a point in trying again with the same group in 2015.

Keep Rasmus, Lawrie, some young arms and build a team around that.

Not so much with Rasmus. He's in his walk year and if the Jays decide to jettison the core I don't see him signing a team friendly contract. Do it if you can but it'll be difficult.

Yes. Bautista, Encarnacion, and Dickey are the really nice contracts I was thinking of. We'll never get back on Dickey what AA gave up (Syndergaard is going to haunt us for years I wager) but sometimes you just have to bite the bullet and move on. Reyes isn't a really nice contract but he's a star and a team like the Yankee's that's looking to replace a legand at SS and doesn't care a bit about the money will gladly trade for him.

The key is to move those contracts at the deadline. You don't want to wait until the offseason when the big spenders can just solve problems with free agency. If you can solve their problems for next year at the deadline and load them up for the playoffs? Oh yeah... they'll pay for that.

[dustyanddaflames]

Romero had a nice 4 IP today - only 2 walks... Not back to where he was, but a person can see some signs of progress. Really rooting for him to get it back, loved his swagger when he was dominating at the ML level.

[CaramonLS]

I'm not sure why the desire is out there to serve up AA on a platter for the fans. I think he has done a fair job, took some risks which most of us agreed were the right moves, but they didn't completely work out last season.

He is still 100x better than Riccardi, and has had a good impact on our scouting and drafting process.

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by CaramonLS

I'm not sure why the desire is out there to serve up AA on a platter for the fans. I think he has done a fair job, took some risks which most of us agreed were the right moves, but they didn't completely work out last season.

To be honest I think describing someones performance as "fair" while admitting that he took risks that didn't work out is faint praise.

Ultimately he has one job... produce a winner with the resources he's allocated. If he can't do that on a reasonable timeline then he's not doing his job and the team has to look for someone who can.

And let's be honest... he hasn't been 100x better then JPR. I bet the teams won-lose percentage is probably pretty close between the two of them. He's more likeable to be sure, and he's different, but to be "better" I'd want to see another level of actual team success before declaring that. I'm in favor of giving him a mulligan on last year if the team is able to succeed this year or if he's able to leverage what he got last offseason into something approaching what he gave up and resume the internal rebuild he'd started... but he only get's one. If he forces himself into a position where he wastes those assets (or gets only pennies on the dollar) then he should be out IMO.

[CaramonLS]

Originally Posted by Parallex

To be honest I think describing someones performance as "fair" while admitting that he took risks that didn't work out is faint praise.

The day he was hired he was asked to deal Roy Halladay and had the worst major league contract on this roster in Vernon Wells, who he somehow managed to pawn off on the Angels without taking back salary.

This organization was not in a very good position when he took the helm. I'm willing to give him more time to get it right.

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by CaramonLS

The day he was hired he was asked to deal Roy Halladay

Which he didn't get a single decent major leaguer out of (unless you want to count 1/2 of RA Dickey... although Syndergaard is the better prize there).

Originally Posted by CaramonLS

and had the worst major league contract on this roster in Vernon Wells, who he somehow managed to pawn off on the Angels without taking back salary.

And then immediately flipped Mike Napoli for a tiny fraction of what he would soon become worth.

AA's record is hardly spotless.

Originally Posted by CaramonLS

I'm willing to give him more time to get it right.

I am too... just not a lot more time.

[CaramonLS]

Originally Posted by Parallex

And then immediately flipped Mike Napoli for a tiny fraction of what he would soon become worth.

AA's record is hardly spotless.

I certainly didn't say that.

He has put the team in a pretty good position no matter what they decide to do. Are they any broken contracts on this team?

[flambers]

Originally Posted by CaramonLS

He has put the team in a pretty good position no matter what they decide to do. Are they any broken contracts on this team?

Sure he has done some really positive stuff but others are problematic....

Key element which is missing is the ability to build a team that can take the next step....

If the team once again struggles and looks to be last in the AL East.

Jays have to make hard decisions...

[CaramonLS]

You want AA out? Fine. Show me who replaces him. To meet your criteria, we need at least someone who is in the top 10 for trading, drafting and development, as well as the ability to work with Rogers contract and payroll restrictions.

This is a hard job. This is a first time GM who is still learning the ropes, but has shown an eye for talent and getting value back in his trades.

Just give me a name who will outperform him.

[moon]

AA seems to think that he knows how to do things better than everyone else and therefore he seems to miss out on some players/moves that would improve the team.

It helped him develop a mythical status amongst the Fans and media but now that it appears they are missing out on guys you have to start to wonder if being smart is good but there is a reason that teams (the best teams included) do things and AA ingoring that isn't being smarter than everyone else at all.

[moon]

Originally Posted by CaramonLS

You want AA out? Fine. Show me who replaces him. To meet your criteria, we need at least someone who is in the top 10 for trading, drafting and development, as well as the ability to work with Rogers contract and payroll restrictions.

This is a hard job. This is a first time GM who is still learning the ropes, but has shown an eye for talent and getting value back in his trades.

Just give me a name who will outperform him.

Why would they have to be in top 10 in trading, drafting and development? That would be great obviously but AA isn't in that top 10, and may not be close, so why would the guy replacing him?

As for candidates I am not in the know enough about specific names but I would look at guys in successful organizations. Cardinals, Braves, Red Sox, Texas, TB are clubs that have had great success over the past 5-10 years while maintaining solid prospect bases. SF, NYY, LAD have all had fairly good success as well and may have someone in their organizations.

Rogers also supposedly has tons of money to spend so perhaps they can throw money at an established guy and get him to leave where he is due to his contract being up or by moving assets ala Ozzie Guillen/John Farrell/Theo.

[flambers]

Originally Posted by CaramonLS

You want AA out? Fine. Show me who replaces him. To meet your criteria, we need at least someone who is in the top 10 for trading, drafting and development, as well as the ability to work with Rogers contract and payroll restrictions.

This is a hard job. This is a first time GM who is still learning the ropes, but has shown an eye for talent and getting value back in his trades.

Just give me a name who will outperform him.

Not sure, but the key question is if they re-build...... what has to be done different this time...

I would bet, if the Jays have another tough season (i.e. last in the AL East).... AA is going to be looked at.

As for Prospects which were drafted, developed and now within the Jays organization. There are very few.

In terms of payroll, Jays payroll I believe is higher than Tampa.....

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by flambers

As for Prospects which were drafted, developed and now within the Jays organization. There are very few.

Topical to the question of drafting I found this recent anaylsis...

http://www.battersbox.ca/article.php...40311112310550

... the conclusion: Despite having invested significantly in scouting the jays have actually been below average at identifying likely future major-leaguers via the draft during AA's tenure.

[nik-]

Well, on the bright side, the Blue Jays obviously learned from last year when they got everyone in the fanbase and media hyped up over their changes. No risk of that happening again!