The Kids: Expectations vs. Reality

[d_phaneuf]

all I was pointing out was the reason for this

If Monahan was on any other team there would be no doubt on this forum that he is clearly on his way to being a # 1 Centre. At age 19 to have a 20 goal season....

I dont think people in this thread are being negative or afraid to anoint him as a #1C, I think they are objectively looking at his play rather than just saying he's a 20g rookie

[Bend it like Bourgeois]

Outside of Monahan I'd be surprised if more than a couple of the current prospects become full time players, but we are still a few years away from knowing so who is to say. I might just be too jaded.

I do think people are underestimating how long the development will take, because they are seeing the prospects right now. It more fun than ho-hum another loss, but the kids are there because of how the team wants to finish and to give them a little taste, not because they are ready to be decent full time NHLers.

[SHOGUN]

Only thing that is separating Monahan from being a #2 centre to a #1 centre is his skating and explosiveness. I really hope he works on that over the off season.. if he improves his skating to the same level as Mackinnon/Duchene.. holy ****!

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by Bend it like Bourgeois

Outside of Monahan I'd be surprised if more than a couple of the current prospects become full time players, but we are still a few years away from knowing so who is to say. I might just be too jaded.

I do think people are underestimating how long the development will take, because they are seeing the prospects right now. It more fun than ho-hum another loss, but the kids are there because of how the team wants to finish and to give them a little taste, not because they are ready to be decent full time NHLers.

I'd say you are very much on the pessimistic/conservative side. Our prospect depth is about 3 times deeper than I've ever seen it, maybe 4 times deeper. If you wanna bet that only 2 of our prospects become full time players I'll be happy to bet any stake that more of them will make it.

Not sure what your point is about length of development. Prospects like Granlund, Reinhart, Knight, Baertschi are pretty close to stepping in and becoming full time NHLers sooner rather than later.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by Freeway

Part of the excitement of the rebuild is that we're seeing more of the young players in the organization. The media also talks about them a lot more than they would otherwise, as a result of that increased interest.

On a personal level, has all the prospect hubbub and excitement inflated your expectations of the kids? Or has it changed your expectations at all?

I'm more excited about this group of prospects than at any other time of my following the Flames closely (about 17 years now.) The excitement has nothing to do with the media or that we're seeing the players in the NHL. It is strictly based on their development in their respective leagues (NCAA, junior, AHL, etc).

There are a few kids that have raised my expectations this season.

Risers: Granlund, Ortio, Reinhart

All 3 I didn't have big expectations for coming into this season. Reinhart I pegged as a probable 4th liner. His performance in the AHL this year leading the team in scoring has me believing he could have a higher upside than the 4th line. Ortio I had written off completely 2 years ago after his failed attempt to come to NA. But his year in Finland last year and then his great year in the AHL this year has put him firmly back on the map. His play so far in the NHL has reinforced this. Granlund I have never had big hopes for. But he does nothing but impress and force me to change my opinion on him. Frankly he's had a more impressive year than Sven.

Disappointments: Baertschi, Cundari, Ramage

Baertschi has had a rough year. We had hopes he might be a 1st line forward but that looks generous. At this point I'd be happy if he can turn himself into a solid 2nd liner and he probably should be able to do that. Cundari fell off the map and IMO has no future with the organization. Ramage I was always a bit skeptical of and his rookie year in the AHL has not disproven that notion.

Meeting expectations: Most of the rest.

We have the best group of prospects we've had in decades. Some people are trying not to get their hopes up too much, I understand that tendency. But as silly as it is to overrate our prospects it is also a little silly to underrate them. Our depth is solid enough that a high percentage of our top 15 prospects should make the NHL as regulars IMO.

What we still lack is gamebreaking prospects at forward and defense (as are almost every team). We have no future top 3 d-men in the system IMO. We are short on top two line forwards with skill, strength and size. But our depth is great and we have a lot of future NHLers IMO.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

HF's spring flames update

http://www.hockeysfuture.com/article...-rookie-season

The list loses all credibility with Granlund at #14 at Reinhart/Knight at #4/#5. Don't really understand any rationale that would have them in those positions relative to each other. He's got Arnold ahead of Granlund too.

Just a bizarre list. Too bad the author didn't spend more time justifying the rankings.

[Lanny_McDonald]

The reality is this is a rebuilding team that is going to see lots of turnover. That means a lot of our young prospects will get a chance to play in the NHL and show what they have. If I had to hazard a guess as to who will end up sticking I would go with the guys who have showed character and a willingness to do whatever it takes to help their teams win. Guys like Arnold, Agostino, Jankowski, Reinhart and Klimchuk seem like guys that will cut niches out for themselves because they are willing to do anything and everything for their team. I think you can add Gaudreau, Poirier and Granlund as skill players the team desperately needs. Tweeners could include Knight and Hanowski. Guys that will make it because of organizational needs will include Ortio, Gillies and Wotherspoon. To what level these guys rise to is going to be up to them. Again, the reality is that is a team that is rebuilding and these guys will be relied upon to play, at least until NHL talent is found at certain positions.

Following Tinordi's method, which doesn't take into consideration the state of the team and the rebuild, is kind of an easy way out on making the decision of who won't make the show. You pick the guys with obvious challenges and completely discount them. Baertschi with his injuries and attitude has a real up hill battle and has potential to wash out. Sieloff is coming off a catastrophic illness for an athlete and a missed year of development is killer for a player his age. Ferland is in the same boat. Ramage hasn't adjusted well to the AHL. We'll see if these guys have the character to step up and get their names back in the mix as possible Flames down the road. They all possess qualities the Flames could use, so saying they won't make it seems short sighted. With a team that is so in flux it is possible anyone will get their shot and could stick, regardless of what some guy's sphincterly extracted magic formula says.

[TheGrimm]

^ Thanked for adding the term "sphincterly" to my vocabulary.

[ForeverFlameFan]

I think Monahan can turn into our top 3, top 6 center. If Backlund stays, they can probably both switch off, depending on who is hot? I don't see Backlund as a third line center, he is so much better than that.

[Bend it like Bourgeois]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

I'd say you are very much on the pessimistic/conservative side. Our prospect depth is about 3 times deeper than I've ever seen it, maybe 4 times deeper. If you wanna bet that only 2 of our prospects become full time players I'll be happy to bet any stake that more of them will make it.

No bets for me. I didnt mean to be precise in 'couple', and I am happy to be proven too cycnical in the end.

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

Not sure what your point is about length of development. Prospects like Granlund, Reinhart, Knight, Baertschi are pretty close to stepping in and becoming full time NHLers sooner rather than later.

I am not sure they are. My point is we have a lot of first and second year pros, and I just dont think they'll make the jump as soon as people think/hope. Like Brodie, Backlund, Colbourne, Bouma I think most are going to be 4-5 years as pros before they become NHL regulars that feel like useful players, for those that do.

[strombad]

Originally Posted by Bend it like Bourgeois

No bets for me. I didnt mean to be precise in 'couple', and I am happy to be proven too cycnical in the end.



I am not sure they are. My point is we have a lot of first and second year pros, and I just dont think they'll make the jump as soon as people think/hope. Like Brodie, Backlund, Colbourne, Bouma I think most are going to be 4-5 years as pros before they become NHL regulars that feel like useful players, for those that do.

Huh? You're saying two different things. A NHL regular is an NHL regular. Being a subjectively effective NHLer is not the same thing.

Brodie and Backlund were NHL regulars 3 years after they were drafted, and Bouma might have been had it not been for injuries (which kept him out an entire year). Not 4-5.

Granlund, Reinhart, and a handful of the rest could very easily be NHL regulars extremely soon. Will they be effective? Maybe not to their peak ability, but you become an NHL regular and THEN you improve your game further. Is it going to be a 4-5 development time before they start reaching their potential? Sure. But making the NHL full-time happens way before that.

[Calgary4LIfe]

Agreed with Strombad above.

There are a few prospects that seem on the threshold of being NHL-ready. Impact players off the bat? Well, they seem and are being that, but you can't count on it continuing with any consistency at all. I think with players in the NHL, there is a certain threshold at which they are ready to enter the league and start facing increased adversity so they can further their development. Put them there ahead of time, and it just becomes too much adversity and can sometimes cause a setback or even ruin a prospect's development.

I would argue that at this point, there are a handful of rookies showing they are beyond that threshold. How long they maintain it for will be the question, but you can see they are knocking on the door. It may still require an extra year even for those making a strong case, but they are definitely knocking loudly.

[CSharp]

Flames have shown that they can work hard all they want and still get nowhere. They need to get bigger, faster, and with more talent. Yeah, they've gotten younger and a bit faster, but the bigger and more talent will hopefully come in the next year or two. The team can work their arse off to 10th place in the Western conference all they want. That doesn't achieve anything in the short and long term goals as a franchise. Just hope the history doesn't repeat itself. Flames need big, fast, center depth as well as depth for puck moving defensemen who can shoot the puck from the point.

[Yoho]

Originally Posted by CSharp

Flames have shown that they can work hard all they want and still get nowhere. They need to get bigger, faster, and with more talent. Yeah, they've gotten younger and a bit faster, but the bigger and more talent will hopefully come in the next year or two. The team can work their arse off to 10th place in the Western conference all they want. That doesn't achieve anything in the short and long term goals as a franchise. Just hope the history doesn't repeat itself. Flames need big, fast, center depth as well as depth for puck moving defensemen who can shoot the puck from the point.

Year one of rebuild

[HelloHockeyFans]

This team has demonstrated their willingness to buy in and work hard for the vast majority of games which is good to see and something we haven't seen in many years now with guys like Sutter, Keenan, etc. which translates to Hartley succeeding as a motivator.

I'd argue that attitude and getting the players to buy into what the coaches are selling are more important than talent / skill at the early stages of a rebuild so the Flames are well on their way to improved results with this solid foundation.

The skill will come through prospects in the system already and picks from this year and next.

From a personnel perspective, I'd say the Flames are missing two bonafide first line prospects (I project Monahan to be a top 2nd line centre in the NHL for many years) another top pairing defenceman (Giordano is very clearly one) and they'll be able to compete for a playoff spot.

We'll see if those holes get filled as early as next year.

[Badgers Nose]

Yeah, I agree with Doug Maclean. This team is better than people give them credit for. Even last night, I think with a bit more experience the Flame get a point or two.

2-3 years for playoffs
3-4 years for the team to be top ten contenders
and many years of competitive hockey after that if the Flames avoid short term thinking as they start to contend.

[automaton 3]

Originally Posted by HelloHockeyFans

From a personnel perspective, I'd say the Flames are missing two bonafide first line prospects (I project Monahan to be a top 2nd line centre in the NHL for many years) another top pairing defenceman (Giordano is very clearly one) and they'll be able to compete for a playoff spot.

We'll see if those holes get filled as early as next year.

I agree with much of what you say, but I think you are underselling Monahan by projecting him to be a 2nd line player.

[Freeway]

NHL regular is a really vague term, too. Paul Byron's a regular this year because the team's been (a) decimated by injury and (b) doesn't have much depth in terms of established NHL players. That said, he's been superb in his specific role.

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by diane_phaneuf

all I was pointing out was the reason for this

If Monahan was on any other team there would be no doubt on this forum that he is clearly on his way to being a # 1 Centre. At age 19 to have a 20 goal season....

I dont think people in this thread are being negative or afraid to anoint him as a #1C, I think they are objectively looking at his play rather than just saying he's a 20g rookie

Monahan has greatly exceeded my expectations. I watched him a ton in juniors (I knew someone on the 67s in his rookie year... who btw told me it was going to be a good pick). I felt he didn't have the high end upside but he's starting to show more and more of late. He's starting to carry the play a bit.

His shooting percentage is likely out of whack but nearly all of his goals are scored from the crease area which I'd assume lends itself to higher shooting percentage than normal. He's going to end up getting more shots as his role grows. He plays on the PP now but doesn't get many shots there (everything is set-up for Gio/other d and Cammy). He'll get better on face-offs to drive more possession.

MacKinnon also has a negative Corsi Rel right now... so I'm going to assume that it doesn't really mean much.

[nik-]

Originally Posted by SHOGUN

Only thing that is separating Monahan from being a #2 centre to a #1 centre is his skating and explosiveness. I really hope he works on that over the off season.. if he improves his skating to the same level as Mackinnon/Duchene.. holy ****!

That's quite a lot to ask. Those two are two of the best skaters in the league.