The Kids: Expectations vs. Reality

[_Q_]

I do think a lot of our prospects are future NHLers. Thing is though, there's really no point in getting excited over guys that can just stick around in the NHL. To win the cup you need several impact players, not a bunch third or fourth liners. Those players are very easy to find in free agency and through off season trades.

Even second liners, #3/#4 defencemen and serviceable goalies aren't too much to get excited about. You build an average team by filling your roster with average players. Spectacular players are what win you a championship and outside of Monahan, I'm afraid the team is severely lacking in these types.

[Fire]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

1. Gaudreau
2. Baertschi
3. Poirier
4. Granlund
5. Ortio
6. Jankowksi
7. Klimchuk
8. Gillies
9. Reinhart
10. Sieloff
11. Wotherspoon
12. Ferland
13. Knight
14. Arnold
15. Hanowski/Kulak/Culkin/Kanzig (haven't seen enough of them to judge)

That's a pretty good ranking imo. Though I would still rank Gillies #2 in my list.

[MrMastodonFarm]

Originally Posted by _Q_

I do think a lot of our prospects are future NHLers. Thing is though, there's really no point in getting excited over guys that can just stick around in the NHL. To win the cup you need several impact players, not a bunch third or fourth liners. Those players are very easy to find in free agency and through off season trades.

I think it's something to be excited about, you need to be consistently drafting and then developing NHL players, of all levels. Yes, you can go out and find 4th line players via free agency but there is something to be said to developing a guy like Buoma, having him in your system, bringing him up on his cheap contract while he's still young then going out and getting a guy like that via free agency and over paying for him.

Obviously you need impact players but you also need to be bringing up guys on all levels. It seems easy, but it isn't. The good teams develop, the Flames haven't been. Hoping that is changing. The guys we bring up seem more "ready" then ever.

[edslunch]

Originally Posted by Tinordi

A useful exercise is to take a list of the top 15 prospects in the organization and then decide which 9 prospects will not make it. Those are the generous odds.

That's a reasonable approach. Equally, though, it's not unreasonable to expect one of the remaining 6 to greatly exceed expectations and become an impact player. Too early to predict who yet though

[Enoch Root]

I am surprised at how many people see Wotherspoon as being a 5/6 guy.

He is not far off being a 5/6 guy NOW. His potential ceiling is much higher than that. VERY difficult to project defensemen, but continued progression for him (which is by no means a certainty) would easily take him into the 3/4 range. Can he become a top pair guy? Unlikely, but far from impossible. But 3/4 is not an unreasonable ceiling expectation for him IMO

[Spinach]

Originally Posted by _Q_

I do think a lot of our prospects are future NHLers. Thing is though, there's really no point in getting excited over guys that can just stick around in the NHL. To win the cup you need several impact players, not a bunch third or fourth liners. Those players are very easy to find in free agency and through off season trades.

Even second liners, #3/#4 defencemen and serviceable goalies aren't too much to get excited about. You build an average team by filling your roster with average players. Spectacular players are what win you a championship and outside of Monahan, I'm afraid the team is severely lacking in these types.

In order to trade for more established 3rd/4th-line vets, teams need to develop young players . Either that, or they end up dealing away picks and suffering from a depleted prospect pool like ours was during Darryl's tenure.

The Flames definitely need some elite talent. The ever-elusive star C is a top priority, along with defence. RW also looks thin. The thing is, the rebuild is far from done. It sucks that this year's draft is weak and its first round is replete with LW's; so, barring trades, getting the top-flight prospects we need will have to wait for another two years after the '14 draft.

[Scoutski]

These are the only players I judge as likely to have lengthy careers:

- Monahan and Reinhart (I just think Reinhart is really smart and will never feature in an offence, but does plenty right to warrant a long and healthy career)

Guys that I think can still easily go either way (and I'll suggest that max half of them make it)

- Ortio, Granlund, Baertschi, Poirier, Reinhart, Gaudreau, Colborne, Klimchuk, Culkin, Wotherspoon

Guys that I expect to not last very long (maybe one of these guys will stick)

- Knight, Hanowski, Arnold, Ramage, Breen, Byron, Jankowski, Kulak, Kanzig, Sieloff and Gillies.

Probably not too surprising a list, but I don't think anyone is for sure is a lock for the future here except for Monahan, Reinhart could end up as trade bait.

[ricardodw]

It seems that everyone is a bit afraid of being too much like Oiler fan boys.....

If Monahan was on any other team there would be no doubt on this forum that he is clearly on his way to being a # 1 Centre. At age 19 to have a 20 goal season....

To date he has definitely over delivered on his potential

Eberle had 18 goals as a 20 year old rookie. Hall 22 in 65 games as a 19 year old. Landeskog 22 goals as a 19 year old. Couture had 32 as a 21 year old rookie. Huberdeau 14 goals in 48 games as a 20 year old. Duchense and Tavares had 22 goals as 19 year old rookies. Patrick "freakin" Kane only had 21 goals as a 19 year old rookie.... Toews had 24 as a 20 year old rookie.

Which of these guys would you not have pencilled in as a top-3 forward based on their rookie year?


Monahan is showing that he is a top-line talent. At 19 year old the only forwards that have done better are Jeff Skinner and Nathan Mackinnon.

[Phanuthier]

Originally Posted by MrMastodonFarm

I think it's something to be excited about, you need to be consistently drafting and then developing NHL players, of all levels. Yes, you can go out and find 4th line players via free agency but there is something to be said to developing a guy like Buoma, having him in your system, bringing him up on his cheap contract while he's still young then going out and getting a guy like that via free agency and over paying for him.

Obviously you need impact players but you also need to be bringing up guys on all levels. It seems easy, but it isn't. The good teams develop, the Flames haven't been. Hoping that is changing. The guys we bring up seem more "ready" then ever.

Great post. In addition, I know there is a belief among many NHL GM's that they were perfer to have their supporting cast be organically grown through the system and grown together vs. hiring a bunch of journeyman. The belief is that if players grow together, they are more likely to unify and elevate their level of game and play for the team rather then play for themselves. Bouma is a perfect example of this.

[Scoreface]

I have more faith in Wotherspoon being a top 4 defenseman than Breen ever playing another NHL game.

When I see other guys such as Poirier, Klimchuk, Gaudreau, and Gillies (injuries aside) progress each year instead of plateau, it gives me strong reason that they will do the same at the next level. Maybe not so much stats wise, especially in the early going in their pro careers, but many have been drafted with an emphasis placed on character. Scouting and management know of each one's skill level, which overall is quite high in that top grouping, but there appears to be quite a bit of sizzle to the steak overall.

I think things are setting up quite well. A number of them won't make it, but that's the law of averages. Just pick and develop guys you think will break that 'average.' Overall, I'm pleased, and time will tell, as always.

[Calgary4LIfe]

Originally Posted by _Q_

I do think a lot of our prospects are future NHLers. Thing is though, there's really no point in getting excited over guys that can just stick around in the NHL. To win the cup you need several impact players, not a bunch third or fourth liners. Those players are very easy to find in free agency and through off season trades.

Even second liners, #3/#4 defencemen and serviceable goalies aren't too much to get excited about. You build an average team by filling your roster with average players. Spectacular players are what win you a championship and outside of Monahan, I'm afraid the team is severely lacking in these types.

Well, there are a couple of things to keep in mind.

1) This is year one of the rebuild. Flames are expected to finish pretty low for this draft and the next at least, and the top tier talent in the draft is mostly gone in the first segment of the draft. Flames should be adding some high-end projected talent into the pool yet. I think they have some options that they have found later in the draft that could play top 6 and possibly top line minutes with Monahan, but regardless and to avoid an argument, they should be drafting those 'elite' players in the next couple of drafts.

2) It does seem 'easy' to grab those 3rd and 4th line guys, and those 2nd pairing and 3rd pairing defencemen. Reality is different, however. Those guys move around much more, but good ones still cost you either a premium in a trade, or demand higher than average contracts. The good ones also typically want to play only on good teams, so trying to crawl out of the rebuild with top-tier prospects without any depth becomes difficult. Edmonton (even with their incompetent management aside) hasn't been able to attract very good depth players, or managed to develop them. It is harder than what you think (or what I thought too!).

With that, I think a team that is managing to draft and develop players in the lower rounds that turn into serviceable NHL'ers also tend to develop the higher-end talent better as well. It is a very positive sign organizationally, as sometimes these elite prospects drafted at the top of the draft sometimes experience a few hiccups along the way, and having a strong developmental program in place will help them push through it and get them on track with their development (just like you are starting to see with Baertschi, for instance, who is really finding his game in the AHL again, or Brodie who had some fairly large holes in his defensive game to start).

[Calgary4LIfe]

Originally Posted by Scoreface

I have more faith in Wotherspoon being a top 4 defenseman than Breen ever playing another NHL game.

When I see other guys such as Poirier, Klimchuk, Gaudreau, and Gillies (injuries aside) progress each year instead of plateau, it gives me strong reason that they will do the same at the next level. Maybe not so much stats wise, especially in the early going in their pro careers, but many have been drafted with an emphasis placed on character. Scouting and management know of each one's skill level, which overall is quite high in that top grouping, but there appears to be quite a bit of sizzle to the steak overall.

I think things are setting up quite well. A number of them won't make it, but that's the law of averages. Just pick and develop guys you think will break that 'average.' Overall, I'm pleased, and time will tell, as always.

Excellent post - just wanted to add that the Flames prioritize high-hockey IQ. I believe it was Todd Button talking about this once as to why they prioritize it. Went something like:

"Sometimes a prospect can't play the same game in the NHL as he did in Junior. If the kid has a low hockey-IQ, he may never adapt and you start seeing them fail at the next level. If they have a very high hockey IQ, they find ways to alter their game and become effective, and are much easier to coach into a more successful player, even if it means becoming a completely different player."

[Scoreface]

Thanks. I had intentionally omitted that point, as I know people don't like to hear IQ a lot, but I suppose character falls within the same refrain.

The thing is, an organization absolutely needs and thirsts for building blocks that possess these two characteristics (amongst others), and unless there is that inner drive and awareness perceived at at draft age, such player would not be drafted. I think that speaks mostly to players in the first 2 rounds generally.

Nobody knows if a pick will really progress from year to year and from one level to another, but Flames management in the past has really keyed in on those two elements. I don't think that is far off of other teams, but it still seems to come as a breath of fresh air to us fans. When those traits are consistent and supported by said progression through the young player's development, there is little reason to be intrigued and dare I say, enthusiastic. Why wouldn't one be?? Sort of like seeing your own investments on the rise.

But yeah, those 2 elements seem to be the highest on the radar, which are more mutually exclusive the deeper the draft goes. It has been said many times about the more darts the better, but unless you have a good dart thrower with good darts, we would see much of what we have seen. When certain traits/talents/skills are honed in on, it gets you that much closer to scoring higher with each throw.

Overall, I've liked Feaster's mandate toward this, as much as he's had his faults. They didnt just draft skill/speed/etc by themselves. It absolutely had to fit in the glove of smarts and character. Outside of a certain range, well we're left with what most organizations are left with later on in the draft.

They were just damned sure they were going with those two key components but also possess a toolbox. You can have Shremp hands or Lombardi speed, etc, but the essential 'core' strength must be there. Vice versa too. Probably don't need to explain that one. We've been there, done that, and hopefully it mostly happens in the latter rounds, picking guys who possess mostly skill or character, as IQ is pretty much burned to the fuse after the mid rounds, barring a Benn/Zetterburg/Datsuyk type of needle in the haystack.

[Vinny01]

The team is better positioned than many in the media predicted at the start of the year. I clearly remember media folks saying that outside of Monahan and Baerstchi there was nothing in the Flames system. Now when you watch a game there are many of the same media praising the step many prospects have made and are now saying the rebuild might not take as long as initially thought.

The Heat season has been a treat with the kids leading the way. Sutter drafted players Backlund, Brodie, Bouma have all played their best seasons. Reinhart appears to be ready to make the team, Arnold is still an intriguing prospect.

Feaster did do some nice work by drafting what I believe will be 4 impact players in the NHL (3 top 6 forwards, 1 top 4 D). I also love the first round of 2013. The pickups of Knight and Colborne were solid moves as well

All in all I think we need to go in the tank next year. McDavid or Eichel with the this group of prospects (2014 top 5 pick as well) has the potential to be a great team.

[Scoreface]

I agree, as there is more daylight from below into a top six than some may think. Monahan when drafted was already considered the most 'NHL ready prospect. And he's proving to be that. So, I don't see why people are up in arms, comparing other prospects to him. Maybe a subtle answer: Monahan was picked 6th. Overall in a pretty darn good draft.

Colbourne and Knight were solid moves, I agree.

Yet, I have my sights set for the 2015 draft the same way I have them set on a late winter blizzard. I see nothing, but I expect to see something when the time arrives. It's going to be an even longer and bleaker looking 2014-15 season, but that shouldn't surprise many. I prefer certain guys over others at the draft, but my knowledge of those prospects is miniscule. I still enjoy the draft though and find much excitement in it, as you do and yeah, I lean towards a guy or two there as well that the Flames will take.

Lots of fun!

[blender]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

It seems that everyone is a bit afraid of being too much like Oiler fan boys.....

If Monahan was on any other team there would be no doubt on this forum that he is clearly on his way to being a # 1 Centre. At age 19 to have a 20 goal season....

To date he has definitely over delivered on his potential

Eberle had 18 goals as a 20 year old rookie. Hall 22 in 65 games as a 19 year old. Landeskog 22 goals as a 19 year old. Couture had 32 as a 21 year old rookie. Huberdeau 14 goals in 48 games as a 20 year old. Duchense and Tavares had 22 goals as 19 year old rookies. Patrick "freakin" Kane only had 21 goals as a 19 year old rookie.... Toews had 24 as a 20 year old rookie.

Which of these guys would you not have pencilled in as a top-3 forward based on their rookie year?


Monahan is showing that he is a top-line talent. At 19 year old the only forwards that have done better are Jeff Skinner and Nathan Mackinnon.

I don't always support Ricardodw's stats-based analysis, but I have to agree that Monahan is top-line talent. Stats aside, watching him play he shows all the skill and intangibles to be an elite player. That doesn't mean he will be one for sure, but I like his chances.

[edslunch]

Originally Posted by blender

I don't always support Ricardodw's stats-based analysis, but I have to agree that Monahan is top-line talent. Stats aside, watching him play he shows all the skill and intangibles to be an elite player. That doesn't mean he will be one for sure, but I like his chances.

Maybe it's just me but he doesn't seem to be a dangerous player when he's on the ice. Obviously he's great at being in the right place at the right time and by most accounts he does the little things well. But I don't hear his name called that often and he doesn't seem to drive the play every time he steps on the ice. He's kind like the defenceman you never hear because he just does his job well. (or maybe i don't watch enough games )

My point is not to diss him, I think he is and will be great. But he's not an explosive game-breaker at this point - something we also need.

[Vinny01]

HF's spring flames update

http://www.hockeysfuture.com/article...-rookie-season

[d_phaneuf]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

It seems that everyone is a bit afraid of being too much like Oiler fan boys.....

If Monahan was on any other team there would be no doubt on this forum that he is clearly on his way to being a # 1 Centre. At age 19 to have a 20 goal season....

To date he has definitely over delivered on his potential

Eberle had 18 goals as a 20 year old rookie. Hall 22 in 65 games as a 19 year old. Landeskog 22 goals as a 19 year old. Couture had 32 as a 21 year old rookie. Huberdeau 14 goals in 48 games as a 20 year old. Duchense and Tavares had 22 goals as 19 year old rookies. Patrick "freakin" Kane only had 21 goals as a 19 year old rookie.... Toews had 24 as a 20 year old rookie.

Which of these guys would you not have pencilled in as a top-3 forward based on their rookie year?


Monahan is showing that he is a top-line talent. At 19 year old the only forwards that have done better are Jeff Skinner and Nathan Mackinnon.

I think people are basing it more on his play, and don't want to hype him up like the Oilers have

from what I have seen he has been good some nights, overmatched on others like every rookie is

the stats back that up

his Corsi is 44.2%, CF REL is -3.6%

his 19 goals on 103 shots is an outlier, the league average on players is between 8-12% and over time things will usually regress or improve to the mean, so he's going to 'slump' at some point, the 19 goals is really closer to 11 or 12 on average

Not meaning to say he's not a good player or I wouldn't like him on my team but based on this season I think no different than at the draft, he's a high floor guy who's likely going to be a top level two way 2C or a 1B type guy, every team that wants to win needs a guy like that, but he's not offensive enough to be a number 1 C

[JiriHrdina]

Originally Posted by diane_phaneuf

his 19 goals on 103 shots is an outlier, the league average on players is between 8-12% and over time things will usually regress or improve to the mean, so he's going to 'slump' at some point, the 19 goals is really closer to 11 or 12 on average

So maybe his shooting percentage goes down but his shots go up.

Putting aside the stats for a moment - the encouraging thing is that as the season has progressed - his game has progressed. He's scoring goals in different ways now than he was earlier in the year.

Yes his shooting percentage will likely drop but he could see improvements in other areas of the game.