Quebec is headed for independence, Michael Ignatieff tells the BBC

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by Rerun

As long as we're cherry picking from the article..





I basically disagree with every statement that Ignatief has made here... and for him to make public statements like these to a foreign audience, with his status of former leader of the Liberal Party of Canada, is unconscionable.

Maybe you do, but a large segment of Quebec certainly doesn't and that's what Ignatieff was saying.

[OffsideSpecialist]

Where will I buy my cheap beer?

All my friends from Quebec say that separatism is dead there, other than a very vocal minority. However, perhaps there should be a referendum for the rest of us to determine if we want to continue keeping that ungrateful province afloat.

[worth]

So just a small bump.

As most of you will know, Quebec is set for a provincial election on April 7. Many people are predicting a PQ majority.

While this may come as a shock for some Canadians, it is not a surprise for most Quebeckers. In just over a year and a half, the PQ government under Pauline Marois has managed (despite a rocky start, untested ministers and some rookie mistakes) to gain the confidence of a growing portion of the province’s electorate, particularly its francophones.

Ms. Marois was never considered the most endearing of politicians, but she has developed her leadership persona, replacing haughtiness with gravitas and honing an image of empathy in the face of the human tragedies at Lac-Mégantic and L’Isle-Verte. She now portrays a woman in command of her party and its policies, in particular on the twin issues that define political cleavages in Quebec, the economy and the question of identity.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe...ticle17332407/

And the columinists are already talking about a referendum on Quebec separation:

So here’s my plan: as a separatist, I think it would be best to get it over with quickly and early. If Ms. Marois wins a majority, Ottawa should seize the initiative and call a referendum on independence. Why wait for the PQ it get its ducks in a row? Why allow English Canada to be subject to Quebec’s preferred timing? The issue is straightforward and we all know what it’s about, so put the question: in or out, yes or no?

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/...he-referendum/

[CaptainCrunch]

That fact that the PQ has done absolutely nothing to fix the economy or saved Jobs, and they're riding the popular wave based on their two major platform points of even more oppressive French Language Laws that will destroy all mid sized businesses in Quebec, and a law that squashes freedom of Religious expression for people that want to work in the Public Sector makes the People of Quebec look like terrible people.

[Daradon]

I've been hearing a majority PQ party is more of a 50/50 chance. They will probably gain a few seats, but it will be very close.

Interestingly enough, it appears this 'values charter' is one of the things boosting their support (with about 60% of Quebecers liking the bill). Of course, the economy is the number one issue, and it's also the one the PQ appears (probably is I'm sure) weakest on. But, when people get to the polls, they often vote emotionally, so the 'values charter' will be in people's minds.

Though I agree, I find it so maddening that a lot of the voters can't see that measures like the 'values charter' and constant talks of separation are exactly why the economy will always be struggling. Investors and business owners do not like uncertainty, not to mention the rules just simply make business harder.

Don't they remember what happened in 95?!

However, if the PQ does get their majority, and push through their bill, the federal courts will probably strike it down. Which in turn, will probably bolster the separation movement (which really could be the main part of the plan). However, I do believe that any referendum on separation will fail. The numbers simply aren't as high as they were in the early 90's.

[Enoch Root]

Quebec has always understood that their true power is the leverage that comes with the threat of separation. Most (I believe - and hope) understand that actually playing the card not only eliminates it, but comes with astronomical costs.

I fully expect that this song and dance - the threat of separation - will continue throughout my lifetime but will never be enacted.

[killer_carlson]

My tolerance for threats like this is diminishing rapidly.

[RW99]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

I fully expect that this song and dance - the threat of separation - will continue throughout my lifetime but will never be enacted.

Yeah, pretty sad. I'd like it over and done with one way or another.

[Cowboy89]

Originally Posted by Daradon

However, if the PQ does get their majority, and push through their bill, the federal courts will probably strike it down. Which in turn, will probably bolster the separation movement (which really could be the main part of the plan). However, I do believe that any referendum on separation will fail. The numbers simply aren't as high as they were in the early 90's.

I agree and I think it's a hopeless cause for the PQ. They have to play games and try to pit English Canada against Quebec both internally in the province and with the rest of Canada just to earn a plurality majority government driven by fear and emotions. They are like a pest hockey player where everything they do is underhanded and with the intention to illicit emotional reactions as opposed to accomplishing anything.

Rationally there's no reason for Quebec to seperate. Economically they will be in a much tighter position without equalization and transfer payments, and after the inevitable exodus of anyone who has any economic or cultural ambitions greater than provincial interests.

I also have a hard time believing that they would be able to do much more culturally as an independent country as well. They pretty much are handled with kid gloves by the feds and allowed to do just about everything autonomously from the rest of Canada as it is. There little that they can accomplish as a seperate country that they couldn't inside Canada that would have any meaningful value to everyday Quebekers.

[Daradon]

Originally Posted by Cowboy89

I agree and I think it's a hopeless cause for the PQ. They have to play games and try to pit English Canada against Quebec both internally in the province and with the rest of Canada just to earn a plurality majority government driven by fear and emotions. They are like a pest hockey player where everything they do is underhanded and with the intention to illicit emotional reactions as opposed to accomplishing anything.

Rationally there's no reason for Quebec to seperate. Economically they will be in a much tighter position without equalization and transfer payments, and after the inevitable exodus of anyone who has any economic or cultural ambitions greater than provincial interests.

I also have a hard time believing that they would be able to do much more culturally as an independent country as well. They pretty much are handled with kid gloves by the feds and allowed to do just about everything autonomously from the rest of Canada as it is. There little that they can accomplish as a seperate country that they couldn't inside Canada that would have any meaningful value to everyday Quebekers.

Yup, I've thought the same things. Which always makes me wonder, why the governments do these things in the first place. Do they truly desire separation, it is a 'moral' battle for them? Or is it just a way to get elected. Because, while the second one works, it also seems to be their undoing later and hurts the province they profess to love. I'd almost have more respect for them if it was the first, though I believe it's closer to the second.

[FlamesAddiction]

They would need much more than a small majority supporting the PQ to have any hope of winning a separation referendum. As mentioned, not everyone who votes for the PQ wants separation. Some like to have the threat on the table as leverage (which I agree is a ####ty thing to do), but a lot of them just like the fact that the party promotes Quebec interests on a federal and global level (which is any region's democratic right).

It's similar to how many in Alberta vote for the Wild Rose or even the Conservatives. A lot of the people I know in Alberta don't hold unwavering conservative views (especially on social issues), but they will vote for them because they know that those parties have a better record of looking out for their provincial interests.

[CaptainCrunch]

If they did vote to separate the negotiations probably wouldn't go well.

If they want to continue to use Canadian Currency and passports they would have to give up some sovereign rights.

They would instantly lose their seats in most trade agreements such as Free Trade agreements signed by the Government. They would also lose access to the G-8.

The ROC would be forced to negotiate on behalf of groups that don't want to join a sovereign Quebec like the Natives, that would cost Quebec borders.

Canada would demand compensation for shares of the national debt and federal property on Quebec lands etc

Quebec would lose access to Canada's welfare net and program fundings instantly

All Quebecers currently working in the Federal Public Service would no longer be employable.

Quebec would lose a large percentage of their population and businesses due to the uncertainty in Quebec.

They would become a third world nations over night after the negotiation of Separation. Their unemployment would sky rocket and their social welfare net would be underfunded based on what they're doing now and would crash.

We would probably have to send Sally Strothers in to make videos.

.

[MoneyGuy]

Negative - our Canadian hockey and Olympic teams would be much poorer.
Positive - we'd be rid of a lot of whiny Canadians.

I cared a lot in 1995 and was very relieved they voted to stay. Now I care a lot less.

Anyone know how much my taxes might drop if we lost these whiny, annoying people?

[Coach]

I can't do anything except laugh at this. Where does Quebec think it would be without the rest of Canada and its billions in transfer payments each year?

IF QC separates I hope Canada cuts them off completely.

I had a guy living in my place from France. He spent some time in Montreal before coming to Calgary and he said that all the citizens there seem to think the Quebec props up the rest of Canada and not the other way around. All I could do was laugh.

So delusional.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by MattyC

I can't do anything except laugh at this. Where does Quebec think it would be without the rest of Canada and its billions in transfer payments each year?

IF QC separates I hope Canada cuts them off completely.

I had a guy living in my place from France. He spent some time in Montreal before coming to Calgary and he said that all the citizens there seem to think the Quebec props up the rest of Canada and not the other way around. All I could do was laugh.

So delusional.

That's the whole point - the threat keeps the transfer payments coming

Would Quebec have a guaranteed 25% of all parliamentary seats, regardless of population demographics, if it wasn't for 'the sake of keeping the federation together'?

[Cowboy89]

Originally Posted by Daradon

Yup, I've thought the same things. Which always makes me wonder, why the governments do these things in the first place. Do they truly desire separation, it is a 'moral' battle for them? Or is it just a way to get elected. Because, while the second one works, it also seems to be their undoing later and hurts the province they profess to love. I'd almost have more respect for them if it was the first, though I believe it's closer to the second.

Pretty sure it's solely to get elected in the near term, and to gain more power for themselves if Quebec was ever it's own country. Seperatism becomes a distraction that the PQ can whip up and use to get francophones who have suffered economically at the hands of their policies to forget about those facts and still vote for them.

Lucien Bouchard's post-political career and comments no longer supporting seperation help confirm this one to me.

[Senator Clay Davis]

Growing up in Quebec, 95 was pretty much the perfect storm, everything came together perfectly for seperation...and it still failed. The seperatists are always going to be loud, because as we see from the Tea Party in the US, the ones with the most extreme positions are the loudest, even if they represent a small minority. There will always be rural Quebec and they'll always hate English Canada, but Quebec is like most of North America, demographics are changing and people are leaving rural areas for cities. 95 was truly their best shot.

[LanceUppercut]

Originally Posted by worth

So just a small bump.

And the columinists are already talking about a referendum on Quebec separation:



http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/...he-referendum/

This would be my strategy, outline exactly what you would be giving up if you chose to separate in a clear and concise manner. Let Quebec decide on their own, but with the full realization of what they would sacrifice and what the implications would be.

[Daradon]

Originally Posted by MoneyGuy

Negative - our Canadian hockey and Olympic teams would be much poorer.
Positive - we'd be rid of a lot of whiny Canadians.

I cared a lot in 1995 and was very relieved they voted to stay. Now I care a lot less.

Anyone know how much my taxes might drop if we lost these whiny, annoying people?

If not zero, than very close to zero. I know it's a big sticking point for westerners but the truth is it's not a big expense. As well, there have been times we've received equalization too, so it goes both ways. Agreed it's not as often, but it is there for us when we need it. Lastly, even if Quebec wasn't in the federation, those payments might just go to other provinces anyway, or other programs.

Doubtful you'd even notice.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

If they did vote to separate the negotiations probably wouldn't go well.

If they want to continue to use Canadian Currency and passports they would have to give up some sovereign rights.

They would instantly lose their seats in most trade agreements such as Free Trade agreements signed by the Government. They would also lose access to the G-8.

The ROC would be forced to negotiate on behalf of groups that don't want to join a sovereign Quebec like the Natives, that would cost Quebec borders.

Canada would demand compensation for shares of the national debt and federal property on Quebec lands etc

Quebec would lose access to Canada's welfare net and program fundings instantly

All Quebecers currently working in the Federal Public Service would no longer be employable.

Quebec would lose a large percentage of their population and businesses due to the uncertainty in Quebec.

They would become a third world nations over night after the negotiation of Separation. Their unemployment would sky rocket and their social welfare net would be underfunded based on what they're doing now and would crash.

We would probably have to send Sally Strothers in to make videos.

.

Were any of these issues factors when Czechoslovakia split up? It's hard to believe, but sometimes cooler heads prevail.

I don't see it happening, but maybe all is not lost if it were to for either country that remains.