Ukraine Presidential Crackdown Violence. Russia Invades Ukraine

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by Brannigans Law

Are you the ghost of Japanese genius who thought Pearl Harbour was a good idea? Obama's popularity and support would skyrocket if the Russians were so daft as to hit an American carrier. It would galvanize the country from California to Texas to Florida, blue/red/purple states.

Strategically Pearl Harbour was a brilliant idea, but the execution and intelligence left a lot to be desired. If the Japanese had hit Pearl Harbour and then waited for the American Carriers to return to knock them out, or had the intelligence assets to let them know where the Carriers were, the American's would have been knocked out of the war on the second day.

As it stood Japanese High Command knew that the war was un winnable.

But that attack was on American Soil,

This is entirely difference. Could Obama rally the nation, possibly the guy is a speaker. I just don't buy that the nation would rally around a war in the Ukraine that was proceeded by an invasion where no one was killed, or people were herded into extermination camps, I would bet that the public outcry would be enough war, get out people out of there, especially if the media is showing a burning carrier on the 6 o'clock news.

And lets be frank, Obama is no Roosevelt who was probably the best war time leader and strongest personality that the American's have ever had leading them.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by worth

This image is of US carrier deployments from Feb 12, 2014. It only shows one Carrier Group deployed. Is that even remotley possible?

Thanks for the outstanding chart. But it makes sense, American Carriers have been in close to continuous operations for over a decade, they're starting to wear out as are the aircraft on board which are not exactly the newest planes in the world.

America is going into an operational down tempo period.

they laughed at Canada when we said we needed a year to repair our gear and rest our people after Afghanistan, but its going to be a bigger problem with the States.

While they're not fought out by any stretch, there are signs of systematic fatigue.

[Zarley]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

Considering he's wanted to be involved in every armed conflict since Obama took office....if he's not addicted to war he sure doesn't show it. This is also the same guy who was on the ground in Syria supporting the rebels. He, if nothing else, loves him some war. Perhaps that has to do with who his biggest campaign donators are, perhaps he just enjoys war. Either one is horrible.

I think that's a very simplistic analysis. If you evaluate his argument for intervention in Syria on its merits you'll find that he made a strong case, and his plan for additional troops in Afghanistan was eventually adopted by the Administration.

[worth]

Here's an updated Carrier map from Feb 26. Looks like CVN 77 was midway through the Atlantic Ocean last week:

Spoiler!

Maybe in the next couple days we can see an updated map to see where it headed.

[19Yzerman19]

It seems to me that the West's most effective response would be economic in nature. The fragility of the Russian stock market is evident if it fell over 10% merely out of concern in re: the potential for conflict as a result of all of this nonsense. I would think that harsh economic sanctions could be devastating... but am not an expert.

Not talked about enough, imo, in comparison to potential military responses which seem unlikely to happen or to produce any good result for the US and other Western countries if they did.

[Zarley]

Originally Posted by 19Yzerman19

It seems to me that the West's most effective response would be economic in nature. The fragility of the Russian stock market is evident if it fell over 10% merely out of concern in re: the potential for conflict as a result of all of this nonsense. I would think that harsh economic sanctions could be devastating... but am not an expert.

Not talked about enough, imo, in comparison to potential military responses which seem unlikely to happen or to produce any good result for the US and other Western countries if they did.

Yes, that's the only realistic option for the West at this point. However the Russians have the trump card of being the major supplier of oil & gas to most of Eastern and Central Europe.

[FlameOn]

Originally Posted by Zarley

Yes, that's the only realistic option for the West at this point. However the Russians have the trump card of being the major supplier of oil & gas to most of Eastern and Central Europe.

So it becomes economic warfare? Russian markets drop because of it's foreign policy. US and EU implement trade sanctions. Russia turns off gas to EU. Productivity and heating drops in EU, EU markets drop and many countries run out of gas supply themselves like the last time Russia did this. Meanwhile the entire worlds economy drops and we head into another recession? Oi.

[19Yzerman19]

Originally Posted by FlameOn

So it becomes economic warfare? Russian markets drop because of it's foreign policy. US and EU implement trade sanctions. Russia turns off gas to EU. Productivity and heating drops in EU, EU markets drop and many countries run out of gas supply themselves like the last time Russia did this...

... Price of oil and nat gas soars, Alberta economy booms! Gas projects green lit everywhere!

It seems to me that if trade sanctions are implemented it would be crazy for the Russians to turn off the gas and eliminate a consistent source of funds. Again I am totally nothing resembling an expert.

[burn_this_city]

Russia can't turn off the taps for very long, O&G revenue makes up a lot of their exports.

[19Yzerman19]

Originally Posted by burn_this_city

Russia can't turn off the taps for very long, O&G revenue makes up a lot of their exports.

This is what I'm saying. And if they did do it for the short term, it seems to me that a combination of austerity measures and some resupply from Western allies who are currently overproducing nat gas in terms of domestic requirements (what's the Henry Hub price right now?) wouldn't be THAT tough a pill to swallow. Again, as long as it didn't last long.

It just seems to me that taking that route would be an exercise in cutting off one's nose to spite one's face.

[nik-]

Plus, Spring is coming in Europe, at least people wouldn't freeze to death.

[worth]

Highlights of US President Barack Obama's speech on Ukraine:

• The steps Russia has taken in Ukraine are a violation of International law.
• People of Ukraine should determine their own destiny.
• Russia cannot, with impunity, put soldiers on the ground and violate principles recognised around the World.
• Russia is on the wrong side of history.
• US is examining a series of economic and diplomatic steps to isolate Moscow.
• Putin should allow international monitors to mediate a deal acceptable to all Ukrainian people.
• Over time, Russia's actions in Ukraine will be a costly proposition for Moscow.
• Congress should provide a package of assistance to the Ukrainian people.

"I regret to say that Russia, in some of the challenges we're seeing right now in Ukraine, has put pressure on Moldova. There are challenges with respect to their energy sources and also their ability to trade. We are committed firmly to the direction that Moldova has chosen for itself."

John Kerry

NATO allies will hold emergency talks on the crisis in Ukraine on Tuesday, for the second time in three days, following a request from Poland, the alliance said on Monday.

[Reuters]

Poland and Lithuania are pushing NATO to do something. They seem to be concerned for their own safety.

[Flash Walken]

Hot topic for someone like me.

Wouldn't everyone feel safer right now if the American's hadn't spent the last decade depleting their military strength (and more importantly), their mystique?

Now it's an "I dare you" without much threat of consequences.

[automaton 3]

From what I can gather, a high proportion of Crimeans (~58%) are ethnic Russians.

If it comes to a vote, is there much doubt that they would vote to separate from the Ukraine and align with Russia in some fashion?

Obama's speech already points in the direction of a vote, IMO. The sanctions part is window dressing.

[burn_this_city]

Crimea is ethnic Russian because Stalin deported all the Tartars.

[Muta]

Originally Posted by worth

Poland and Lithuania are pushing NATO to do something. They seem to be concerned for their own safety.

http://www.kresy.pl/wydarzenia,wojsk...aliningradzkim

In this translated article, it states that Russia has deployed 3500 troops and heavy equipment for military exercises on the Baltic coast in Kaliningrad Oblat, which is near Polish and Lithuanian borders.

[Plett25]

Originally Posted by Zarley

When is the last time the United States has had a president who is this weak on foreign policy? How can Obama and his advisors be this naive? Putin already made a fool of him with the Syria situation and he's doing it again here. It's downright embarrassing.

So, the Russian dictator invades historical Russian territory after that country's corrupt pro-Russian president was overthrown...

... and somehow, this is Obama's fault?

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

Hot topic for someone like me.

Wouldn't everyone feel safer right now if the American's hadn't spent the last decade depleting their military strength (and more importantly), their mystique?

Now it's an "I dare you" without much threat of consequences.

The problem now is one of shifting priorities.

The American's since 9/11 have shifted their armed forces away from conventional cold war style battles to fighting insurgencies and fighters carrying AK-47's while riding mules through mountain passes.

Everything is about that, including the change in priorities from a blue water navy to a brown water navy.

Now the world is threatening to change again and we've moved from the guild lines of war in the 21st century as we thought it would be.

Meanwhile the Russians have continued to develop their conventional war fighting capabilities in terms of their new subs, and fighter planes and a heavier emphasis on piece meal battles. The Chinese have done very much the same as they've changed the direction of their navy from a coastal navy to a blue water navy with new deep water subs, first wave air craft carrier and deep water escort groups.

Even American training has changed.

This was a danger that I put out there a few years back when somebody bought up the idea of a specialized armed forces built around anti terror. Warfare changes rapidly and you have to be ready to defend yourself in all kinds of different environments.

If the American's wanted to be somewhat proactive, they would move equipment into Poland or Romania and commence with field exercises. They could probably start moving a MAU unit and a armored cav division over and have them there in two weeks. They could move a Airborne Division, a Light Infantry Division over there in a couple of days, and move a few squadrons of fighters and fighter bombers to Poland by the end of the week to show a commitment to their Nato Allies.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by burn_this_city

Crimea is ethnic Russian because Stalin deported all the Tartars.

I know it's Wikipedia, but just to illustrate:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Crimea

According to this source, Crimea saw a huge demographic change before and after World War 2.

[Doodlebug]

No two nuclear powers have ever gone to war, with the possible exception of the india pakistan conflict of 1999 (fairly minor). No way either side allows a situation too develop that could potentially risk the US and Russian military's directly squaring off with one another.