2014 Oscars

[CaptainYooh]

Seeing no thread on this, I thought this would be a good time to post your predictions.

This year, we decided to see all movies nominated for Best Picture and saw almost all of them, except for three (12 Years a Slave, Philomena and Her, which I didn't care to see much because I found their plots boring). Until yesterday, a clear winner for me was American Hustle. But last night we saw "Nebraska" directed by Alexander Payne and I now think this is by far the best movie of 2013. Dark, crisp and ruthless picture of deep American rural mid-west. Good story, brilliant cinematography, great acting by the entire cast. I doubt the Academy will give it a win over the politically-correct and over-exploited slavery movie directed by a director with British accent, but it truly deserves it, I think. I will cheer for "Nebraska" tonight.

My 2014 Oscar main award predictions:

Best Picture: 12 Years a Slave (My vote: Nebraska)
Best Director: Steve McQueen (My vote: Alexander Payne)
Best Lead Actor: Matthew McConaughey (My vote: Matthew McConaughey)
Best Lead Actress: Cate Blanchett (My vote: Cate Blanchett)
Best Supporting Actor: Jared Leto (My vote: Jared Leto)
Best Original Screenplay: American Hustle (My vote: Nebraska)
Best Adapted Screenplay: 12 Years a Slave (My vote: I don't have one)

I think American Hustle should win for best cinematography and musical score.

One more, I have no idea how Gravity made it to the top nominations list. I found it nothing but an exercise in computer graphic design. As SNL's Taran Killam said it yesterday: "If I wanted to watch a depressed middle-age woman float around for 90 minutes, I'd go to the YMCA." What a laughable nomination...

[strombad]

Best Picture: 12 Years a Slave
Best Director: Alfonso Cuaron
Best Lead Actor: Matthew McConaughey
Best Lead Actress: Cate Blanchett
Best Supporting Actor: Jared Leto
Best Supporting Actress: Lupita Nyong'o
Best Original Screenplay: Her
Best Adapted Screenplay: 12 Years a Slave

Like Gravity or not (I thought it was average), Cuaron put on a clinic. That movie was visually flawless, and the only thing that hampered it was a dead plot.

Otherwise, it's a pretty good slate this year. I (personally) thought Nebraska was a total joke to even be nominated (I found it pretty boring and mostly hollow, my least favourite film of his thus far). I thought Wolf of Wall Street was fantastic, but I don't see it really deserving of any awards.

I expect Gravity to clean up most of the technical awards, Gatsby to rock the design awards, 12 Years and Dallas to rock the big dramatic awards, and I'm really hoping Her picks up what it can (Spike Jonze should be a lock for writing).

Oh, and it should be hilarious watching Jackass win an Oscar. Yikes.

[CaptainYooh]

A good story is a cornerstone of a good movie. Gravity was based on a joke of a story. Astronauts were openly ridiculing practically every situation on it (I recall reading about Chris Hadfield being asked to leave a movie theater after loudly calling it idiotic). Good videography (it's hard to call it cinematography, really) cannot fix a bad story.

The plot of Nebraska is brutally honest and totally realistic.

[MrMastodonFarm]

Originally Posted by CaptainYooh

A good story is a cornerstone of a good movie. Gravity was based on a joke of a story. Astronauts were openly ridiculing practically every situation on it (I recall reading about Chris Hadfield being asked to leave a movie theater after loudly calling it idiotic). Good .

You know that wasn't real, right?

Astronaut Mike Massimino continually praised Gravity for all the things it got right, saying he was blown away by all the tools and small details contained in Gravity. Astrophysicist Neil degrasse Tyson was tweeting corrections for it but has said that he enjoyed the movie too.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/quora/20...nk-of-gravity/

http://www.digitaltrends.com/gaming/...lock-performs/

Astronaut Garrett Reisman

The movie does an outstanding job of capturing what it is like to do a spacewalk – much better than any previous sci fi film. Having done three spacewalks myself, I can tell you – this is legit. The visual impact of having nothing but the glass of your helmet between you and the Earth is captured very well. (Although the Earth is a bit more sharp and vivid in the movie than the real thing. Plus there is almost always an interesting land-mass to look at when in reality you spend most of your time looking down at a less-interesting ocean view.) Also, the movement and physicality of doing a spacewalk is rendered in a very accurate manner. The ease of starting a motion and the difficulty of stopping it in the vacuum of space is captured accurately in many scenes.

It’s amazing how many things “Gravity” gets right. When Sandra Bullock’s character turns the two valves to shut off oxygen flow to the Soyuz – those are exactly the correct valves to turn. When she wants to command the orbital maneuvering engine, the CKD, she pushes the correct button which is also labeled correctly. The interiors of the Soyuz and the International Space Station, are pretty realistic although the various modules are not the correct position.

Yes, I could go on and on about all the things “Gravity” got wrong. If you put me in a Chinese spaceship, there is no way I would be able to figure out how to fly it home. An astronaut that took joyrides around the Hubble Telescope with a jet pack shouldn’t even bother coming home. And a debris field in low earth orbit would never take out geostationary communication satellites.

But who cares?

All of these inaccuracies were done to help advance the plot or to add drama to the film which is exactly the artistic license we should be willing to grant the filmmakers. This is entertainment, not a documentary.

I can't believe you thought that Chris Hadfield story was real.

[Erick Estrada]

I haven't seen, Nebraska (don't care to watch), Her (will definitely watch), Captain Phillips (doubtful I watch), or 12 Years a Slave (will likely watch) but I have a feeling if I did I would still steer to Wolf of Wall Street as my favourite move if 2013. I just can't see those movings being more entertaining and while I appreciate good films like Dallas Buyers Club I appreciate well acted and wildly entertaining movies like Wolf of Wall Street more. It was such a blast and to me is what going to the movies is all about.

[strombad]

A documentary is brutally honest and totally realistic. Those two existing in a drama do not suddenly make it a great film. The acting was shallow (especially Forte) and the whole movie was different shades of bland. It was oatmeal: Whole lot of substance, but nothing to get up for.

That said, I do love oatmeal.

Gravity was average, as I said, but you're clearly looking at it from the scope of it being realistic. It was a simplistic science fiction movie. A directorial achievement, the acting was sound, but the story was incredibly one note and pretty pointless.

EDIT: And according to Mastodon, it clearly did a lot better job of being realistic than you or I even thought.

As I said, I didn't find it all that impressive, but it's going to clean up technical awards and Cuaron is the only guy who could take the Oscar away from McQueen.

[CaptainYooh]

MMF, you're back, hi.

I never cared to actually check the story myself but it did sound plausible, I admit. Just found this:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/arts/...ticle16630501/

Regardless, I still think there is no good story there, even though some of the details look realistic. And Bullock looked ridiculous as an astronaut.

[trackercowe]

It was a survival story at its best, I am not sure why people are asking for more from Gravity. Do we really need to learn more other than the characters need to survive (even after she gave up)? Just look at other survivalist movies like Cast Away or All is Lost, there was very little story to them, and in the case of Cast Away the "story" part of it doesn't really work with the vibe of the movie. Personally I don't need a detailed back story of each character in order to get behind their need to survive.

Gravity would have been a much worse movie had they added a 30 minute epilogue like so many on here are saying. It may not deserve the nod for Best Picture, but Cuaron is an absolute lock for best director for the work he did, and deservedly so. His achievement is comparable to what Ang Li did with Life of Pi a couple years ago. But like MMF said Cuaron was able to develop a proper treatment for a "space" movie, which really has never been done before.

[CaptainYooh]

Originally Posted by strombad

...
As I said, I didn't find it all that impressive, but it's going to clean up technical awards ...

No argument here, I agree.

Originally Posted by strombad

... Cuaron is the only guy who could take the Oscar away from McQueen.

I didn't watch "12 Years a Slave" and cannot comment on this comparison. But if Cuaron takes an award for Best Directing, this would totally undermine the validity and objectiveness of the Academy voting for me.

[MrMastodonFarm]

Originally Posted by CaptainYooh

I didn't watch "12 Years a Slave" and cannot comment on this comparison. But if Cuaron takes an award for Best Directing, this would totally undermine the validity and objectiveness of the Academy voting for me.

Either are worthy winners, both are insanely talented story tellers and two of my favourite directors going today.

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Originally Posted by CaptainYooh

Seeing no thread on this, I thought this would be a good time to post your predictions.

This year, we decided to see all movies nominated for Best Picture and saw almost all of them, except for three (12 Years a Slave, Philomena and Her, which I didn't care to see much because I found their plots boring). Until yesterday, a clear winner for me was American Hustle. But last night we saw "Nebraska" directed by Alexander Payne and I now think this is by far the best movie of 2013. Dark, crisp and ruthless picture of deep American rural mid-west. Good story, brilliant cinematography, great acting by the entire cast. I doubt the Academy will give it a win over the politically-correct and over-exploited slavery movie directed by a director with British accent, but it truly deserves it, I think. I will cheer for "Nebraska" tonight.

My 2014 Oscar main award predictions:

Best Picture: 12 Years a Slave (My vote: Nebraska)
Best Director: Steve McQueen (My vote: Alexander Payne)
Best Lead Actor: Matthew McConaughey (My vote: Matthew McConaughey)
Best Lead Actress: Cate Blanchett (My vote: Cate Blanchett)
Best Supporting Actor: Jared Leto (My vote: Jared Leto)
Best Original Screenplay: American Hustle (My vote: Nebraska)
Best Adapted Screenplay: 12 Years a Slave (My vote: I don't have one)

I think American Hustle should win for best cinematography and musical score.

One more, I have no idea how Gravity made it to the top nominations list. I found it nothing but an exercise in computer graphic design. As SNL's Taran Killam said it yesterday: "If I wanted to watch a depressed middle-age woman float around for 90 minutes, I'd go to the YMCA." What a laughable nomination...

I literally can't take anything you say seriously after the bolded parts. If you had seen any of those films you wouldn't say their plots were boring. The fact that you think 12 Years A Slave will win only because it's politically correct and because the (brilliant) director has a British accent, well then not only have you clearly not seen it, a problem in the first place, but you're very misinformed. It's a masterpiece of a film about an important TRUE story, that we should be loathe to forget. Nothing on the subject of slavery has hit home to the truth of it the way 12 Years did, and if you don't think that's worthy of praise over Nebraska (which I also found good, but nowhere in the same category of some of these other films) then you don't know much about film.

Article from the Guardian explaining how important this film is: http://www.theguardian.com/film/2014...-shameful-past

But in America many people have asked why it has taken so long for a film to do justice to the appalling plight of African America's slave ancestors and why no US film-makers have succeeded before in confronting their country's shameful past with such unflinching power and historical accuracy. Variety said it was a "disgrace" that, after so long, it has taken "a British director to stare the issue in its face".

There were exactly 101 slave narratives written by fugitive slaves between 1760 and 1865 and another 101 published after 1865. So there were 202 written accounts by former slaves and only one slave narrative has been made into a feature film.

This is to say nothing of the fact that Her is one of the most original films I've seen in some time, and all of that comes from the story and plot. I get so tired of people bemoaning the awards that films get when they haven't even seen it to properly evaluate it. If you like a film because you found it personally endearing, great, say that, but don't say it deserves to win because of your personal taste.

Quite frankly, if you're talking about pure quality of filmmaking Nebraska ranks quite low on the list from my trained eye, but it's saving graces are the performances (and I actually LIKED Will Forte in it) and the subject matter, but by no means is the story as important as 12 Years, DBC, Philomena, or Her.

It's the problem of the "recency effect" where you remember only the most recent event, and often more fondly. Also, you just haven't seen some of the others to compare effectively so it's failure by omission.

*sigh* rant over.

EDIT: Sorry, I didn't mean to direct most of this rant at you personally, just some of these phenomenon that drive me crazy around award season. I apologize if I offended.

[CaptainYooh]

Originally Posted by Cali Flames Fan

...but by no means is the story as important as 12 Years, DBC, Philomena, or Her...

You've just repeated my reasoning though, don't you think? The importance of a story is not a primary reason for liking a movie to me. It might be to you and to many others but are you saying it is the most important factor? From the ideological point of view, maybe, but I truly hate ideology in all of its forms and expressions. Cinematography is art and I appreciate movies for their artistic quality (the way I see it) and not for their ideological message.

Anyway, note that I did not comment on the movie, because I did not watch it; only mentioned why I didn't, so your rant is unjustified. I watched 6 out of 9 movies and my votes are based on what I've seen.

[Nyah]

I'm looking forward to see who wins in the Documentary category. There are three solid docs regarding really important current event issues: The Square, The Act of Killing & Dirty Wars. However, I have a feeling 20 Feet From Stardom is the most popular in Hollywood. We'll see though.

[Cali Panthers Fan]

My Predictions (for what they're worth):

Best Supporting Actress: Lupita Nyong'o-12 Years A Slave
*Amazing breakout performance that was heads and tails above everyone else.

Best Supporting Actor: Jared Leto-Dallas Buyers Club.
*A category filled with what I thought were actually the best performances of the year. Leto is just that good that he can't be denied, although Fassbender is a dark horse for me.

Best Actress: Cate Blanchett-Blue Jasmine.
*Not the strongest field but Blanchett was amazing in a Woody Allen movie that almost nobody saw. Amy Adams deserves consideration as well as Judi Dench, but Blanchett is just too strong.

Best Actor: Matthew McConaughey-Dallas Buyers Club.
*Very tough to choose here. Bruce Dern was excellent and might get the sympathy vote, and everyone was worthy of an award, but McConaughey just had that little extra that will probably get him the award.

Best Director: Steve McQueen-12 Years A Slave.
*Another very tough field here but McQueen deserves it. I honestly felt that Spike Jonze deserved the nomination for Her over Alexander Payne, but so be it.

Writing-Adapted Screenplay: I have no clue who will win, but my personal favorite would be Steve Coogan and Jeff Pope for Philomena, considering they wrote an entire film that came from an article.

Writing-Original Screenplay: Spike Jonze-Her.
*I don't think it's even close in this category. By far the most original ideas and managed to create a fully formed character through writing and voice-over alone. Pretty brilliant.

Best Picture: 12 Years A Slave.
*I think this is the best overall film but the whole group is pretty good. I kind of feel like it will come down to 12 Years, Dallas Buyers Club, and American Hustle, but if I had a vote it would probably be for Her.

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Originally Posted by CaptainYooh

You've just repeated my reasoning though, don't you think? The importance of a story is not a primary reason for liking a movie to me. It might be to you and to many others but are you saying it is the most important factor? From the ideological point of view, maybe, but I truly hate ideology in all of its forms and expressions. Cinematography is art and I appreciate movies for their artistic quality (the way I see it) and not for their ideological message.

Anyway, note that I did not comment on the movie, because I did not watch it; only mentioned why I didn't, so your rant is unjustified. I watched 6 out of 9 movies and my votes are based on what I've seen.

Sorry, no, you said you found those plots "boring" which is not the same thing. And if you hate ideology then it's weird you like Nebraska so much which is full of ideology from the filmmaker, and in fact, ALL art is full of ideology that drives the message of the artist. Without it you have a bunch of pretty pictures or songs or words that have no real meaning. Very strange viewpoint if you truly appreciate movies for their artistic qualities. The message and the means of delivering it are intertwined and cannot be separated. I'm just not getting what you're saying so we'll let it be and talk about predictions.

[Engine09]

I saw everything up for the major awards. Even a few I had little interest in, August Osage County, Her & Captain Phillips. All were intersting if not also enjoyable.

My favorites Wolf of Wall Street, Nebraska & 12 Years a Slave. Philomena & American Hustle also very good.

Always a crapshoot picking winners, toughest to call is best supporting actor but have to say I'm pulling for Jonah Hill even though Leto will probably win and Fassbender was the most impressive.

[dammage79]

12 Years a Slave was Driven by the story and acting and a movie I believe was easily directed. Don't get me wrong I loved the crap out of that movie. How Chiwetel Ejiofor doesn't get a nomination for best actor if he didn't is beyond me, I feel he would take it over McConaughey.

Gravity on the other hand would appear to be a movie that would be a directors nightmare. I'd give best Director to Gravity for sure.

Leto for sure gets supporting actor. Not even close IMO.

Best Picture should for all intents and purposes got to 12 years a slave. Such a great movie. I have not seen Wolf of Wallstreet to be fair.

Cate Blanchett and Blue Jasmine: If her goal was to act as annoyingly as possible because that what her Character was, then yeah for sure give her the award, I was not a fan of that film. I'd give best actress to anyone but her. And I dont think Ive seen the movies those actresses have been in.

[Cheese]

My picks

Best Picture - 12 Years a Slave. Slam dunk winner. Honorable mention to Dallas buyers club and AMerican Hustle
Best Actor - Chiwetel Ejiofor. MAtthew McConnaghey with honorable mention.
Best Actress - Meryl Streep. Brilliant performance. Honorable a to Cate Blanchett
Supporting Actor - Jared Leto. Honorable to Jonah Hill
Supporting Actress - Lupita Nyong'o. Honorable to Jennifer Lawrence.
Animated Movie - Frozen
Cinematography - Gravity. Honorable to Nebraska
Costume Design - Gatsby. Honorables to 12 years.
Directing - Steve McQueen. Honorable to Martin Scorcese.

That's all I care to mention.

Hated Her. Most overrated of all the nominees.

http://oscar.go.com/nominees

[Cali Panthers Fan]

I just have to say, I really didn't care that much for Wolf of Wall Street. Normally I'm a huge Scorsese fan, but I felt like he missed the mark this time.

[djsFlames]

12 YAS will take home best picture, because that's the typical sort of thing the academy would do. Don't get me wrong, I thought it was great, but it wasn't exactly groundbreaking when it comes to films about slavery. It thrived mainly on acting.

(Benedict Cumberbatch and Fassbender were really fun to watch, for me)

I sincerely hope Gravity takes nothing, outside of some technical awards, because it deserves nothing beyond that. Pile of dung story.

Otherwise all options are good and deserving. Boring year for film, though. Only a few gems, and even these aren't the greatest or most exciting. I probably most enjoyed WOWS because of how ballsy it was in comparison to the rest. Hoping for better this year. I'm not even worried about 2015.