Goaltender Log Jam. What would you do?

[kehatch]

Originally Posted by btimbit

How many FA goalies are going to want to come here? Especially ones that will really be any sort of upgrade.

I think Burke has said he doesn't like our goaltending, and we all know he likes to build from the back end out, but unless there is a proven NHL calibre goaltender available that even wants to come here I think we could see Berra again. Definitely not in as prominent of a role as this year, and depending on Ortio's next few games and camp maybe Berra even starts off in Abbotsford. I just don't think we've seen the last of Reto quite yet.

Very well could be wrong that's just my take on it.

Calgary will be a prime destination for some goalies. We won't get the Ryan Millers (probably). But we might get the Elliots or Halaks who are looking for a chance at the starter job. Plus, trade is another option.

Finding elite starters is really tough. Finding a mid tier goalie is really easy. Burke is going to want to find his Bishop, Niemi, Varlamov type of goalie. One of those guys proven in the NHL but who haven't been able to stick to a team or get a starter job.

There is no reason to keep wasting time on Berra. Those types of goalies are always available, they are better than Berra, and they have a better chance of becoming an NHL starter.

[Enoch Root]

I agree that Burke will go after a FA. But I don't think that means the end for Berra.

I see them going with FA/Ramo/Berra/Ortio next year.

If Gillies enters the frey, he can start in Alaska

[moon]

Originally Posted by btimbit

How many FA goalies are going to want to come here? Especially ones that will really be any sort of upgrade.

There isn't really a ton of options out there for goalies.

I would say that the following teams have no opening for a starter:

Anaheim, Boston, Chicago, Colorado, Columbus, Detroit, Dallas, LA, Montreal, Nashville, New Jersey, NYR, Phoenix, SJ, TB, Toronto, Washington, Vancouver.

Buffalo (Enroth), Florida (Markstrom), Ottawa (Anderson), Minnesota (Harding), Philly (Mason), Pittsburgh (Fleury) all have guys that they think or want to be #1 so probably aren't pressing too hard for a goalie.

That leaves St. Louis (Allen), Edmonton, Winnipeg, NYI as the teams with basically a clear shot to be the number 1 guy for a FA coming in.

I am not saying we are getting Ryan Miller to come here but in terms of attractiveness to a FA I doubt there are many situations where another team could offer a better shot at being a #1, more money and a better chance at winning.

Pretty much all the teams with no #1 are bottom of the league likely in large part for that reason.

Now whether guys like Hiller, Elliot, Halak, Emery, Thomas are upgrades or more importantly enough of an upgrade to be worth it may be valid.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by moon

Now whether guys like Hiller, Elliot, Halak, Emery, Thomas are upgrades or more importantly enough of an upgrade to be worth it may be valid.

Those goaltenders are all what they are and nothing better and this team isn't close to being a contender. I would rather go into next season with Berra and Ramo over them as they will be cheaper and maybe the best is still yet to come from one or both of them. It won't hurt Ortio to play another full season in the AHL and you can look at the situation at the end of next season with Ramo's contract expiring.

That said it's really hard to get a read on how Burke views the goaltender situation as he's inherited all these guys and he may not be high on one or both of them for all we know.

[moon]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

Those goaltenders are all what they are and nothing better and this team isn't close to being a contender. I would rather go into next season with Berra and Ramo over them as they will be cheaper and maybe the best is still yet to come from one or both of them. It won't hurt Ortio to play another full season in the AHL and you can look at the situation at the end of next season with Ramo's contract expiring.

I agree outside of maybe Miller all those guys do are help them team finish 23-25th instead of 26-30th. They are not the answer long term and are just better Band-Aids then Ramo/Berra.

Better to just stick with Ramo/Berra and wait to get someone who may actually help the team when they are ready to compete.

[schteve_d]

Originally Posted by kehatch

Calgary will be a prime destination for some goalies. We won't get the Ryan Millers (probably). But we might get the Elliots or Halaks who are looking for a chance at the starter job. Plus, trade is another option.

Finding elite starters is really tough. Finding a mid tier goalie is really easy. Burke is going to want to find his Bishop, Niemi, Varlamov type of goalie. One of those guys proven in the NHL but who haven't been able to stick to a team or get a starter job.

There is no reason to keep wasting time on Berra. Those types of goalies are always available, they are better than Berra, and they have a better chance of becoming an NHL starter.

I disagree. Burke will not be offering term. The only real advantage for a mid-tier goalie (as far as I can see) is to sign a short deal, play well and sign a better contract here or somewhere else. Any goalie coming onto this team for the next couple of years is in tough. NOT a place to pad your stats!

[btimbit]

Originally Posted by schteve_d

I disagree. Burke will not be offering term. The only real advantage for a mid-tier goalie (as far as I can see) is to sign a short deal, play well and sign a better contract here or somewhere else. Any goalie coming onto this team for the next couple of years is in tough. NOT a place to pad your stats!

Yeah that's how I view it too. A goalie looking for a place to prove themselves as a legitimate starter would have their work more than cut out for them trying to do it here.

[kehatch]

The ideal situation for the goalie would be to get a starter chance on a great team. But the ideal situation doesn't exist.

Sent from my SM-N900W8 using Tapatalk

[flamesfan1297]

Joey Mac is definetly getting bought out or traded, doubt he will be back nest year which opens up one position. I would be okay with trading Berra and going with Ramo/Ortio. Or signing a free agent and having Ortio play another year in Abby.

[btimbit]

Originally Posted by flamesfan1297

Joey Mac is definetly getting bought out or traded, doubt he will be back nest year which opens up one position. I would be okay with trading Berra and going with Ramo/Ortio. Or signing a free agent and having Ortio play another year in Abby.

Won't need to be bought out, I think he's a free agent at the end of the season

[Mike F]

Originally Posted by moon

Buffalo (Enroth), Florida (Markstrom), Ottawa (Anderson), Minnesota (Harding), Philly (Mason), Pittsburgh (Fleury) all have guys that they think or want to be #1 so probably aren't pressing too hard for a goalie.

Interesting stat: Since December 1st, Berra has a .905 SV%, which is comparable to Enroth and Anderson's season SV% and considerably better than Markstrom's.

I don't think he's the long term answer to Calgary's goaltending, but the hatred some posters have for him is unwarranted, IMO.

[moon]

Originally Posted by Mike F

Interesting stat: Since December 1st, Berra has a .905 SV%, which is comparable to Enroth and Anderson's season SV% and considerably better than Markstrom's.

I don't think he's the long term answer to Calgary's goaltending, but the hatred some posters have for him is unwarranted, IMO.

I wonder if we cherry picked those guys stats how they would look if choosing best games.

Unfortunately for Berra we don't just ignore the other games because he was poor in them.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by moon

I wonder if we cherry picked those guys stats how they would look if choosing best games.

Unfortunately for Berra we don't just ignore the other games because he was poor in them.

It's not cherry picking, it's progression.

The guy is new to the NHL. He has some European habits that won't fly here and he needs to learn how to play in the NHL.

All I want to see from him in his first season here is progression and signs that he can be an NHLer.

And that is exactly what we've gotten: the last two months have been way better than the first two months.

[flamesfan1297]

Originally Posted by btimbit

Won't need to be bought out, I think he's a free agent at the end of the season

Oh, even better

[moon]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

It's not cherry picking, it's progression.

The guy is new to the NHL. He has some European habits that won't fly here and he needs to learn how to play in the NHL.

All I want to see from him in his first season here is progression and signs that he can be an NHLer.

And that is exactly what we've gotten: the last two months have been way better than the first two months.

The last two months haven't been that great though. There are still a lot of stinkers in that time and hard to say progression with such a small time frame for both "groups" of games.

I guess we will see how it goes for the rest of the season but he still looks like the same poor goalie that lets in way too many soft goals that he was when he started the season. I guess its better that his numbers are just bad in the cherry picked games rather than awful but there hasn't been much if any progression in terms of his play from what I have seen.

[Mike F]

Originally Posted by moon

The last two months haven't been that great though. There are still a lot of stinkers in that time and hard to say progression with such a small time frame for both "groups" of games.

I guess we will see how it goes for the rest of the season but he still looks like the same poor goalie that lets in way too many soft goals that he was when he started the season. I guess its better that his numbers are just bad in the cherry picked games rather than awful but there hasn't been much if any progression in terms of his play from what I have seen.

Define "cherry picking".

I gave him 11 games to get more familiar with NHL ice, then counted every one of the 17 games since then.

As for "no progression", in his first 11 games he had only 4 in which his SV% was .900 or better (36%). In his last 17 games he has had 12 games with a SV% of .900 or better (70%).

[moon]

Originally Posted by Mike F

Define "cherry picking".

I gave him 11 games to get more familiar with NHL ice, then counted every one of the 17 games since then.

As for "no progression", in his first 11 games he had only 4 in which his SV% was .900 or better (36%). In his last 17 games he has had 12 games with a SV% of .900 or better (70%).

I would say cherry picking is choosing games he had poor stats ie the first 11 games and excluding them.

No progression is based on watching him play. Save percentage in 17 games can be a little misleading and be based on more than just what Berra is doing (for example good save percentage last night not because of his great play but a garbage effort from the Oilers). My concern with him is he still struggles with position in his net and overcommitting side to side, still lets in weak goals especially in the 3rd period it seems and has yet to have a game where I would say he stole one or stood on his head. To me those are the same issues he has when he first started here and they haven't improved.

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by moon

I would say cherry picking is choosing games he had poor stats ie the first 11 games and excluding them.

No progression is based on watching him play. Save percentage in 17 games can be a little misleading and be based on more than just what Berra is doing (for example good save percentage last night not because of his great play but a garbage effort from the Oilers). My concern with him is he still struggles with position in his net and overcommitting side to side, still lets in weak goals especially in the 3rd period it seems and has yet to have a game where I would say he stole one or stood on his head. To me those are the same issues he has when he first started here and they haven't improved.

Dude...its beyond obvious that Berra is heads and tails better than he was in October and November...and its not debateable using either stats or the eyeball test.

Im not a fan of the guy either and dont believe he amounts to much of anything at the NHL level, but there is just no way to deny he isnt playing far better than he did at seasosn start.

[Mike F]

Originally Posted by moon

I would say cherry picking is choosing games he had poor stats ie the first 11 games and excluding them.

If I'd chosen them simply because he had worse stats, it might have been cherry picking, but I didn't. There's a very good reason for treating his first games differently - he had never played on NHL sized ice in his life, and everyone agrees that it is a huge adjustment for goalies.

Originally Posted by moon

No progression is based on watching him play. Save percentage in 17 games can be a little misleading and be based on more than just what Berra is doing (for example good save percentage last night not because of his great play but a garbage effort from the Oilers). My concern with him is he still struggles with position in his net and overcommitting side to side, still lets in weak goals especially in the 3rd period it seems and has yet to have a game where I would say he stole one or stood on his head. To me those are the same issues he has when he first started here and they haven't improved.

The whole point of using statistics gathered over time is to control for idiosyncratic games. More than that, the argument that they can be misleading applies to his first stretch as well as his last. The team in front of him has not changed significantly, and the opponents haven't changed significantly, so there's no reason to attribute the difference in stats to anything other than his improved play.

IMO, by continuing to argue, all you're doing is undermining the accuracy of your personal judgment.

[puckedoff]

We should sign Scrivens in the offseason. Not that I think he is a worthwhile upgrade but it would really piss off Coiler fans.