Ukraine Presidential Crackdown Violence. Russia Invades Ukraine

[PIMking]

Sounds like war is on the brink. No doubt in my mind that if Putin does invade the euro powers will send in troops. Now the question is what will happen with china? And will Obama have a balls to stand up against Putin.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by PIMking

Sounds like war is on the brink. No doubt in my mind that if Putin does invade the euro powers will send in troops. Now the question is what will happen with china? And will Obama have a balls to stand up against Putin.

Unlikely from a tactical sense.

The supply lines for troops is way too long for any EU Troops. air drop is out of the question and you can't really drop enough heavy equipment to make a difference if the Russians do a build up on the Ukraine border.

The Russian Western Military District would supply troops, that includes the 6th and 12th army, Probably 150,000 men and I would get 200 to 300 tanks and armored personal carriers a couple of air assault divisions, and a Air defense regiment x2.

Since re-supply or forced entry would have to come by sea through the Black Sea, home of the Black Sea Fleet which is a pretty formidable combination of missile cruisers, destroyers, submarines built around the Heavy Guided missile cruiser Moskva.

The Russians could also move their Med fleet up,

The American Navy would have some trouble fighting in the Black Sea as they would be within range on Russian Frontal Aviation which could be shifted down from the North in a Hurry and be used to either attack Western Supplies or go after the Carriers that the Americans would shift up to the Black Fleet.

The Americans's would probably win that naval battle eventually but it would come at a heavy cost since the Russians know that if they can disable or take out American Carriers the remaining American ships would become a frigate navy, on top of that it would force the American's to shift carriers from other hot spots. Plus if you kill an American Aircraft Carrier with 5000 sailors and aviators on board in one attack the American's would probably lose their popular support at home. The only other Western power with a applicable carrier would be the De Gaulle which in terms of comparison would be an escort carrier with 40 strike aircraft. The Brits are effectively out of the Carrier game until 2016 when their new pocket carriers come out.

If the Russians decide to go into the Ukraine there's nothing that the European powers or America could do militarily and I doubt Obama would have the balls to even try.

On top of that, these aren't rag tag Taliban and Al'Queda insurgents that the American's would be facing, the Russian Western Military District is probably the best equip and best trained troops in the Russian Military, and they would almost certainly have the home field advantage in terms of brining in supplies and re-enforcements from other districts.

[Red Slinger]

^ From a non-military perspective, I'd say there isn't enough to gain from this situation to go to war over.

Russia will flex it's muscles, western Europe will cry outrage and condemnation, the US will encourage dialogue, things will eventually settle, Putin will sell himself as a strong Russian hero that stood up to the West, Ukraine will have elections and the cycle will repeat somewhere else until the imperialist KGB mindset of Putin and his like vanishes.

[PIMking]

What about the Royal Navy? It's not like they're all at dry dock

[saskflames69]

Originally Posted by Brannigans Law

I think a peaceful split of Western Ukraine and Eastern Ukraine is ideal; eastern Ukrainians are more Russian anyways. Let them have their own capital in Donetsk and be a puppet state for the Russians or go full Russia.

The balkanization of Ukraine is not going to solve anything, instead it will create two (or more) countries that hate each other and that is definitely not something the region needs more of.

Unfortunately there is a smell in the air over Ukraine and that smell is the one of civil war.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by PIMking

What about the Royal Navy? It's not like they're all at dry dock

They've drawn down a long way. Their greatest strength would probably be in their submarine forces, they can deploy 5 and 7 SSN's with 2 of those being their shiny new Astute classes.

Their lone carrier is the Illustrious which is a woefully small carrier with up to 22 aircraft including 1 12 plane squadron of Harriers which would be cut to pieces against Modern Russian Aircraft.

They have 6 guided missile Destroyers, that are modern

They have a dozen Frigates that were commissioned in the 80's.

They're not the royal navy of the Falklands war.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by Red Slinger

^ From a non-military perspective, I'd say there isn't enough to gain from this situation to go to war over.

Russia will flex it's muscles, western Europe will cry outrage and condemnation, the US will encourage dialogue, things will eventually settle, Putin will sell himself as a strong Russian hero that stood up to the West, Ukraine will have elections and the cycle will repeat somewhere else until the imperialist KGB mindset of Putin and his like vanishes.

Putin won't have to sell that he's standing up to the West, he's winning that battle on all fronts right now.

[Robo]

Does russia even have any money left to go to war after how much they spent in the olympics

[Byrns]

This will go down exactly like South Ossetia has. Divided country, Russian soldiers, and Russian passports issued to ethnic Russians.

[cal_guy]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

They've drawn down a long way. Their greatest strength would probably be in their submarine forces, they can deploy 5 and 7 SSN's with 2 of those being their shiny new Astute classes.

Their lone carrier is the Illustrious which is a woefully small carrier with up to 22 aircraft including 1 12 plane squadron of Harriers which would be cut to pieces against Modern Russian Aircraft.

They have 6 guided missile Destroyers, that are modern

They have a dozen Frigates that were commissioned in the 80's.

They're not the royal navy of the Falklands war.

I do believe they've retired their Harriers

[CaptainCrunch]

They're still shown as part of the compliment, but it looks like its mainly a helicopter carrier now.

[FlameOn]

Armed men have seized the Crimean regional parliament building and hoisted the Russian flag. Looks like the Ukrainian federal government has lost control. Either that or the Russia is really stirring the pot.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/201...iament-reports

[Itse]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

Unlikely from a tactical sense.

The supply lines for troops is way too long for any EU Troops. air drop is out of the question and you can't really drop enough heavy equipment to make a difference if the Russians do a build up on the Ukraine border.

The Russian Western Military District would supply troops, that includes the 6th and 12th army, Probably 150,000 men and I would get 200 to 300 tanks and armored personal carriers a couple of air assault divisions, and a Air defense regiment x2.

Since re-supply or forced entry would have to come by sea through the Black Sea, home of the Black Sea Fleet which is a pretty formidable combination of missile cruisers, destroyers, submarines built around the Heavy Guided missile cruiser Moskva.

The Russians could also move their Med fleet up,

The American Navy would have some trouble fighting in the Black Sea as they would be within range on Russian Frontal Aviation which could be shifted down from the North in a Hurry and be used to either attack Western Supplies or go after the Carriers that the Americans would shift up to the Black Fleet.

The Americans's would probably win that naval battle eventually but it would come at a heavy cost since the Russians know that if they can disable or take out American Carriers the remaining American ships would become a frigate navy, on top of that it would force the American's to shift carriers from other hot spots. Plus if you kill an American Aircraft Carrier with 5000 sailors and aviators on board in one attack the American's would probably lose their popular support at home. The only other Western power with a applicable carrier would be the De Gaulle which in terms of comparison would be an escort carrier with 40 strike aircraft. The Brits are effectively out of the Carrier game until 2016 when their new pocket carriers come out.

If the Russians decide to go into the Ukraine there's nothing that the European powers or America could do militarily and I doubt Obama would have the balls to even try.

On top of that, these aren't rag tag Taliban and Al'Queda insurgents that the American's would be facing, the Russian Western Military District is probably the best equip and best trained troops in the Russian Military, and they would almost certainly have the home field advantage in terms of brining in supplies and re-enforcements from other districts.

I'm no expert, but since Ukraine is half surrounded by NATO countries, I don't see why carriers would be essential for air operations over Ukraine or the Black Sea? Why not just fly those operations from Poland/Slovakia/Romania/Hungary/Bulgaria/Greece/Turkey?

This would go partly for supply lines I would imagine.

That said, I don't see a shooting war in the cards for Russia right now. That's not why they spent 50 billion on PR and international relations last couple of weeks.

[Handsome B. Wonderful]

Originally Posted by FlameOn

Armed men have seized the Crimean regional parliament building and hoisted the Russian flag. Looks like the Ukrainian federal government has lost control. Either that or the Russia is really stirring the pot.

Crimea never really was part of Ukraine anyway.

[undercoverbrother]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

Unlikely from a tactical sense.

The supply lines for troops is way too long for any EU Troops. air drop is out of the question and you can't really drop enough heavy equipment to make a difference if the Russians do a build up on the Ukraine border.

The Russian Western Military District would supply troops, that includes the 6th and 12th army, Probably 150,000 men and I would get 200 to 300 tanks and armored personal carriers a couple of air assault divisions, and a Air defense regiment x2.

Since re-supply or forced entry would have to come by sea through the Black Sea, home of the Black Sea Fleet which is a pretty formidable combination of missile cruisers, destroyers, submarines built around the Heavy Guided missile cruiser Moskva.

The Russians could also move their Med fleet up,

The American Navy would have some trouble fighting in the Black Sea as they would be within range on Russian Frontal Aviation which could be shifted down from the North in a Hurry and be used to either attack Western Supplies or go after the Carriers that the Americans would shift up to the Black Fleet.

The Americans's would probably win that naval battle eventually but it would come at a heavy cost since the Russians know that if they can disable or take out American Carriers the remaining American ships would become a frigate navy, on top of that it would force the American's to shift carriers from other hot spots. Plus if you kill an American Aircraft Carrier with 5000 sailors and aviators on board in one attack the American's would probably lose their popular support at home. The only other Western power with a applicable carrier would be the De Gaulle which in terms of comparison would be an escort carrier with 40 strike aircraft. The Brits are effectively out of the Carrier game until 2016 when their new pocket carriers come out.

If the Russians decide to go into the Ukraine there's nothing that the European powers or America could do militarily and I doubt Obama would have the balls to even try.

On top of that, these aren't rag tag Taliban and Al'Queda insurgents that the American's would be facing, the Russian Western Military District is probably the best equip and best trained troops in the Russian Military, and they would almost certainly have the home field advantage in terms of brining in supplies and re-enforcements from other districts.

Perhaps this is a good time to see what sort of stones the new NATO countries have........

[Arsenal14]

Originally Posted by Handsome B. Wonderful

Crimea never really was part of Ukraine anyway.

True. Crimea was sort of a gift from the Soviet Union and is not really part of the historical "nation" of Ukraine. It's about as Russian as you can get.

[FlameOn]

Originally Posted by Arsenal14

True. Crimea was sort of a gift from the Soviet Union and is not really part of the historical "nation" of Ukraine. It's about as Russian as you can get.

But they've really gone through the same struggles and oppression as other Ukrainians for the past hundred years including the Holodomor. I'm wondering how much of this is a very vocal minority trying to impose it's will on the rest?

In any case, it seems the Ukranian SBU (secret service) has been dispatched to deal with the Rebels (or maybe Russian agitators?) in APCs running around in the Crimea.
http://translate.google.com/translat...u%7Cen&ie=UTF8

[Brannigans Law]

Originally Posted by FlameOn

But they've really gone through the same struggles and oppression as other Ukrainians for the past hundred years including the Holodomor. I'm wondering how much of this is a very vocal minority trying to impose it's will on the rest?

In any case, it seems the Ukranian SBU (secret service) has been dispatched to deal with the Rebels (or maybe Russian agitators?) in APCs running around in the Crimea.
http://translate.google.com/translat...u%7Cen&ie=UTF8

[Itse]

Btw, despite Russia obviously having ulterior motives like any good superpower, it's important to remember that their worries over the Russian minority in Ukraine are quite legit.

The current revolution/opposition forces have strong far-right groups inside them with obvious violent tendencies.

Considering the history of the ex-Soviet bloc and Europe in general, anything from disorganized persecution to forcing Russians out of the country to even smallscale ethnic cleansings are all perfectely realistic scenarios.

This is especially the case since Janukovitsh and his gang were considered to be pro-Russian, and Ukraine is heading towards an economic collapse, which is always a situation that can easily breed violence.

There's something like 8 million Russians inside Ukraine. Historically you can easily say that Crimea has always been more Russia than Ukraine. It was gifted to Ukraine in the Soviet era, and I'm sure the Russians have regretted this for the last 20 years. Russia has also spent billions to keep Ukraine financially afloat through cheap loans and cheap energy

Note that I'm not really defending Putins rhetorics and Russias generally aggressive style of diplomacy is IMO just stupid and arcane.

However, considering everything that ties Russian interest to Ukraine, people are making way too much of the fact that Russia has no intention of just letting the Ukrainians do what ever the hell they want. Every country in Russias position would get involved and try to use pretty much every way they can to influence what's going on in there.

It's really just the way they do it that's generally stupid and unconstructive a lot of the time.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by PIMking

Sounds like war is on the brink. No doubt in my mind that if Putin does invade the euro powers will send in troops. Now the question is what will happen with china? And will Obama have a balls to stand up against Putin.

The EU won't go to war over the crimea. Russia also has no need to send in direct military support.

Russia can slowly infiltrate the area by supplying local groups with weapons.