Quote:
Originally Posted by Hot_Flatus
Jankowski always has been and until he proves otherwise, always will be a later. Maatta is a right now because he's proven as much already. If that is not a basis for comparison in its own right, I don't really know what is. Especially consider these guys are from the same draft class.
I thank you for making a valid statement as to why its not all doom and gloom on the Jankowski front. You've also mentioned that it would be obviously better to have Maatta at this point...something that several posters seem to be blind to despite being so painfully obvious.
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Excuse me, but who is being blind here?
Who is saying otherwise? By not agreeing with you that Maatta is indeed 'better'?
Do I think Maatta is the better prospect now? Yes.
Do I think he holds more 'value' right now? Yes.
You are (in your own words here) being BLIND to the fact that nobody is arguing against that. Nobody is saying Jankowski is the better prospect NOW.
What people are telling you over and over and over again is that it is way too soon to make any sort of declarations one way or the other. That is the point. Calling the pro-Jankowski crowd "Blind to the painfully obvious" is completely hypocritical of you.
Can Jankowski bust? Yes.
Can Jankowski become a 1st line center in the NHL? Yes.
Can Jankowski become a player somewhere in the middle? Yes.
Do I still prefer Jankowski over Maatta? Yes - I think he could possibly become a much more valuable piece in the future. Do I guarantee this? ABSOLUTELY NOT.
At this point, Jankowski hasn't shown anything that says he will bust. Could he? Sure, any prospect can bust. Most posters feel until Jankowski starts to show 'bust', why label him as such? It isn't like he has huge deficiencies. What he needs the most is 'seasoning' and time to pack on some weight to his frame - thus the term 'project'. He could very well end up busting, but he could very well really end up being a 1st line center. That is who the Flames project him to be after doing extensive scouting on him. Are they wrong, or do you just see 'project' = 'bust' automatically?
Maatta - can he still bust? Yes, he can. There are loads of defencemen that come into the NHL and look pretty good for a short while, and then falter, fizzle out and have mediocre careers or just play out of the NHL. You speak as if it is a guarantee. It is not. He has more 'value' and is the better prospect now because he has made the show, and has done reasonably well thus far. This does not guarantee that he will continue to do so, nor does it guarantee he will have a better career or be a more important player to his organization at all than Jankowski in the future.
Project does not = bust.
That is what apparently the 'blind to the painfully obvious' are trying to tell you. Sometimes you get a pretty special player that requires more seasoning and time to mature before they can start their NHL careers, and they can very well end up being pretty damn good players. There are lots of examples of guys getting picked in the latter rounds who have done so. Look at Giroux for instance. He was also passed over in the OHL draft, and needed some time before hitting his mark in the NHL.
There are going to be a lot of prospects that are going to take a bit longer to develop, but who could be important pieces moving forward. How about these for examples in the Flames' system now?
Ferland - everyone became a bit excited when he started scoring at a high-level post-draft in junior, while beating up on goons. Had a disappointing season last year, started off this year a bit slow, but then caught fire and everyone thought he would make a very important piece moving forward (unique prospect, etc).
Granlund - Was practically labeled a bust by most people here. What he is doing as a rookie now that he has finally come over has everyone excited.
Gaudreau - I personally shook my head at this pick, and practically called him a waste of a pick (but stopped at calling him a bust). No guarantee with this kid either, but he has made a very good case at generating optimism and excitement in the fanbase.
Tkaczuk - "Future Captain" written all over him, and was definitely a very good piece moving forward. Had his NHL career ended because of a concussion in his rookie season.
Fata - Definitely an exciting prospect who people were very high on. Not quite a complete bust, but extremely disappointing.
Brodie - Thought of as a 'reach' to have a meaningful NHL career. Too thin, too defensively irresponsible.. now many argue he is a legitimate top 4 defencemen who will probably end up as a top 2.
Backlund - Disappointing.. the 'pro-crowd' kept pointing to his glowing advanced stats and his brief flashes of brilliance, only to be consistently a bit underwhelmed with his offence. Now he seems he is finally breaking through and looks like he could very well be a very important piece moving forward.
St. Louis - heck, who really was high on him at all while he was in Calgary? Franchise player who took a LONG time to develop, and every team in the NHL passed on him on waivers.
I can go on and on with both pros and cons about past draft picks the Flames have made, or start naming examples of players that were not too unlike Jankowski (though Jankowski is a very unique prospect with everything about him, and makes him impossible to really compare). Point I am trying to make is that sometimes 'sure things' don't pan out. Sometimes 'surprises' happen. Often 'project' does not mean 'bust'. Some of the players who fans are high on now, may never pan out at all still. Nobody knows for sure until their careers in the NHL start unfolding (or at some point when it is obvious they will never make it).
Patience is what is needed while following prospects, and not make any declarations when a player hits a low OR a high. There will be peaks and valleys in most prospect's careers. The fact that 30 NHL teams still value Jankowski as a first round talent given where he was drafted from says a lot to me personally, so because of this and many other factors, I am more optimistic on him. Does this not mean I am 'blind', so forgive me if I take exception to what I consider a fairly hypocritical statement.
