GMs to discuss changing Draft Lottery Odds

[The Fonz]

Originally Posted by nik-

But it always will. Because only one will win, so in general the better you are the worse your draft position. They don't random draw the whole thing. Until the top players stop being in the top of the draft (ie: never) fans will always want a high draft pick for a poor team.

You missed the point. The league has to stop giving teams high incentive to suck.

Even though the last placed team in the league currently only has a 25% shot at #1, they can not possibly draft worse than #2. In my mind, the re-tooling of the lottery odds did nothing to deter tanking.

Even if you lose the lottery, you are still pick protected. Worst case scenario, your pick drops 1 spot versus your final standing. This isn't enough to fix the issue of tanking. The potential should exist for your pick to drop from 2nd overall to 10th overall.


EDIT: my previous suggestion was random drawing the first 14 picks of the draft

[DOOM]

Do some of you really think teams "tank" ?

Have there been any recent examples? And no I don't mean the Oilers recent draft history as I don't think they have been "tanking"

[Bend it like Bourgeois]

Originally Posted by nik-

Yeah. It never came up after Pittsburgh and it never came up after Chicago. This is absolutely about the Oilers not even trying.

Well those other teams took it nowhere near as far. And, more importantly, they weren't copied. It's damn near an epidemic now.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by nik-

Well it's not bad, but in the grand scheme of things the wins are irrelevant. But again, If the odds are spread, your spot in the standings is still likely to be your spot or one pick lower than your spot, then you have the chance to move to 1, but likely that's your slot.

You're still going to have people hoping for losses because 2nd pick getting bumped to 3 is better than 6/7/8 and it always will be.

thats why I want all spots to be in the lottery for non playoff teams, you don't just get bumped back one there is no guarantee where you pick

[nik-]

Originally Posted by The Fonz

You missed the point. The league has to stop giving teams high incentive to suck.

Even though the last placed team in the league currently only has a 25% shot at #1, they can not possibly draft worse than #2. In my mind, the re-tooling of the lottery odds did nothing to deter tanking.

Even if you lose the lottery, you are still pick protected. Worst case scenario, your pick drops 1 spot versus your final standing. This isn't enough to fix the issue of tanking. The potential should exist for your pick to drop from 2nd overall to 10th overall.


EDIT: my previous suggestion was random drawing the first 14 picks of the draft

You don't see that it will be the exact same? Now the last place team will have maybe a 20% chance to draft first, but still won't draft worse than 2nd. It's pretty much the same thing. You're more likely now to be bumped down 1 spot, but drafting higher is still drafting higher.

EDIT: I see your edit now. They won't go for that. Some teams are just bad legitimately and need help. The better solution is a limit on how many years between drafting 1st overall.

[sun]

The oilers Rule.

[DOOM]

Originally Posted by The Fonz

EDIT: my previous suggestion was random drawing the first 14 picks of the draft

That would be horrible. The talent drop in every draft from 1-14 is HUGE.

Something as drastic as this would hurt the league and may leave some bad teams with no choice but to try and rebuild through free agency, which almost never works.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by DOOM

Do some of you really think teams "tank" ?

Have there been any recent examples? And no I don't mean the Oilers recent draft history as I don't think they have been "tanking"

Oilers have been doing everything they can to win and put the best possible product on the ICE? Colorado remembered how to play hockey over the summer as did Tampa

[strombad]

Originally Posted by DOOM

Do some of you really think teams "tank" ?

Have there been any recent examples? And no I don't mean the Oilers recent draft history as I don't think they have been "tanking"

I don't know that teams (even the Oilers) actually tank. I DO however firmly believe that the current draft system has created a situation where teams lean more heavily on drafting instead of really astute team management.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by DOOM

That would be horrible. The talent drop in every draft from 1-14 is HUGE.

Something as drastic as this would hurt the league and may leave some bad teams with no choice but to try and rebuild through free agency, which almost never works.

yeah GMs having to make smart decisions and shrewd signings to improve their team would be terrible...they should just be rewarded for being exceptionally bad

[saillias]

I'm sure a variation of this joke has been made in this thread already, but I'm sure the GMs "forgot" to include MacT on the invite list.

[strombad]

As well, you would likely avoid teams "rebuilding" in the current sense where teams just suck for 5 years. Imagine if Calgary had nabbed a first round pick in a year where they just missed the playoffs, or if Nashville got one without dropping near the bottom.

Nashville in fact is a great reason WHY the draft should change. They never lean solely on high picks. They actually BUILD their team.

[Jacks]

Originally Posted by DOOM

That would be horrible. The talent drop in every draft from 1-14 is HUGE.

Something as drastic as this would hurt the league and may leave some bad teams with no choice but to try and rebuild through free agency, which almost never works.

It would be a weighted lottery so the odds are still with the worst teams. If you have a 25% chance of winning each pick then the odds are you aren't going to drop very far. They are going to get a top 5 pick about 80% of the time, most of the time they will get a top 3 pick.

[Bend it like Bourgeois]

Originally Posted by DOOM

Do some of you really think teams "tank" ?

Have there been any recent examples? And no I don't mean the Oilers recent draft history as I don't think they have been "tanking"

Defining 'Tanking' gets people wrapped up, but if you think in terms of which teams are consciously choosing not to be competitive now, in the hope of being more competitive later through a better draft pick.

Edmonton, Florida, Calgary, and Buffalo this year alone.

How many pundits and posters think Calgary needs to take their medicine, man up and lose, or Vancouver needs to blow up their team and start losing? It's become common.

[dino7c]

Exhibit A:

http://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog/Kevin...nton/157/57724

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Coincedence this comes up a year before McDavid's draft? Everyone wants a better chance at him and they know it'll be hard to outsuck EDM, CGY, FLA and BUF

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by DOOM

The bad teams are still gonna finish close to last. Even if people think they are "tanking"

All this will do is hurt rebuilding teams.

Incompetent drafting is what hurts rebuilding teams.

Personally, I am in favour of this for multiple reasons. First, it is embarrassing that fans actively cheer for losses. Even Flames fans who used to laugh at Oiler fans for "Fall for Hall" and "Fail for Nail". Hypocrites. Second, this actually helps teams like the Flames who have never been the worst team in the league and hopefully never will be. If we finish in the same 5-6-7 range we were last year, we'll have a better chance at still drafting first.

[The Fonz]

Originally Posted by nik-

Well it's not bad, but in the grand scheme of things the wins are irrelevant. But again, If the odds are spread, your spot in the standings is still likely to be your spot or one pick lower than your spot, then you have the chance to move to 1, but likely that's your slot.

You're still going to have people hoping for losses because 2nd pick getting bumped to 3 is better than 6/7/8 and it always will be.

Using the model I posted earlier:

30th - 14%
29th - 13%
28th - 12%
27th - 11%
26th - 10%
25th - 9%
24th - 8%
23rd - 7%
22nd - 5%
21st - 4%
20th - 3%
19th - 2%
18th - 1%
17th - 1%

Put into a random number generator, this is how the draft turned out for me:

Pick# - Standing - (+/-)
1 - 28th - (+2)
2 - 27th - (+2)
3 - 26th - (+2)
4 - 20th - (+7)
5 - 25th - (even)
6 - 29th - (-4)
7 - 30th - (-6)
8 - 19th - (+4)
9 - 23rd - (-1)
10 - 24th - (-3)
11 - 22nd - (-2)
12 - 17th - (+2)
13 - 21st - (-3)
14 - 18th - (-1)

Biggest gain - the 20th placed team got 4th overall
Biggest drop - the 30th placed team drafted 7th overall



If something like this were put into place, it'd still provide an advantage to bad teams, but there's not enough certainty to justify tanking.

[DOOM]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

Incompetent drafting is what hurts rebuilding teams.

Personally, I am in favour of this for multiple reasons. First, it is embarrassing that fans actively cheer for losses. Even Flames fans who used to laugh at Oiler fans for "Fall for Hall" and "Fail for Nail". Hypocrites. Second, this actually helps teams like the Flames who have never been the worst team in the league and hopefully never will be. If we finish in the same 5-6-7 range we were last year, we'll have a better chance at still drafting first.

Sure, in the 2nd/3rd/4th rounds.

Not top 5 picks.

[dammage79]

Meh, they shouldn't increase the odds across the board but they should definitely even the odds out more in the bottom five of the standings. It's usually so close in points at the end of the season anyways that the odds do not properly reflect that in the lottery.

Another thought would be to reward one of the bottom five teams in the standings an extra ball or two if they had the most wins (while using the current points accumulation system) as to eliminate the "tank".

Sounds too complicated to me. Or just reverse the order randomly every year in the bottom five. some years 4 goes to one and one goes to five and so on.

Small market teams stand to suffer the most out of a decreased odds change as that is their primary way of getting talent. they can't just go out and buy teams like the bigger markets.