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Old 02-01-2014, 04:07 PM   #1141
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It's not about chasing.

Look at a big book like Pinnacle Sports. 156k limits right now on the spread for the Super Bowl. So when the line goes from PK to -2 -106 you're telling me action is even?

Or when a NBA game goes from -2 to -5.5 you're telling me books are not exposed on one side? Of course they are. OKC Thunder vs the Milwaukee Bucks and the line opens up OKC -11 on the road and it closes at -13.5....books would need the Bucks to cover.
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Old 02-01-2014, 04:24 PM   #1142
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Also your thinking is level 2. Sure long term books win but we're talking about one match up where the limits are higher than normal.
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Old 02-01-2014, 05:24 PM   #1143
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Quote:
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It's not about chasing.

Look at a big book like Pinnacle Sports. 156k limits right now on the spread for the Super Bowl. So when the line goes from PK to -2 -106 you're telling me action is even?

Or when a NBA game goes from -2 to -5.5 you're telling me books are not exposed on one side? Of course they are. OKC Thunder vs the Milwaukee Bucks and the line opens up OKC -11 on the road and it closes at -13.5....books would need the Bucks to cover.
The books can bet with each other. If they see one side is being bet on too much they can go bet on that same side somewhere else to even it up.

you can't beat the bookie.
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Old 02-01-2014, 05:56 PM   #1144
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The books can bet with each other. If they see one side is being bet on too much they can go bet on that same side somewhere else to even it up.

you can't beat the bookie.
Vegas may lays off action to Pinnacle but what about Pinnacle? When someone bets the limit on the Broncos tomorrow for 300k eight times what happens then? Where do they go? When Nadal lost the books not only cleaned up in bets for that match but all Nadal future bets to win the tourney lost too. Rarely are books 50/50 action.....but they sure as hell win because people lay -110 at most books (not pinnacle)
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Old 02-01-2014, 06:11 PM   #1145
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that is true, i'm sure there are a lot of futures Broncos bets on the line.
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Old 02-01-2014, 07:25 PM   #1146
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Ok, will admit that some very late big bets can skew things if there isn't time to divide the action or lay off action to other bookmakers.

But why do you assume that these late bets are always on the favourite?
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Old 02-01-2014, 07:36 PM   #1147
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The Seahawks seem like the safe bet but it's hard to tell with Manning.
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Old 02-01-2014, 07:40 PM   #1148
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I think it would be very uncomfortable viewing to pick the Seahawks and then watch Manning do his thing. Although I might be biased because my Patriots couldn't stop him. i mean who knows how to stop Manning more than Bellichik and he was helpless.
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Old 02-01-2014, 08:38 PM   #1149
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Yeah, I wouldn't want to bet against Manning.
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Old 02-02-2014, 12:06 AM   #1150
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Old 02-02-2014, 02:30 AM   #1151
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Time for the final pick of the season.

Denver (-2.5) over Seattle
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Old 02-02-2014, 07:40 AM   #1152
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should be an interesting game. Wilson seems to be a guy that could flourish in a winter environment, and we all know manning's struggles there.

As a huge football fan, the superbowl is just too hit or miss from an entertainment perspective. Hoping for a tight, high scoring game.
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Old 02-02-2014, 09:22 AM   #1153
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Super Bowl Sunday. Last time they won I was 8; hope I get to appreciate it as an adult. Go Broncos.
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Old 02-02-2014, 09:24 AM   #1154
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Let's go Broncos I hope they destroy the Canucks tonight ... I mean Seahawks.
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Old 02-02-2014, 09:49 AM   #1155
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Super Bowl Sunday. Last time they won I was 8; hope I get to appreciate it as an adult. Go Broncos.

I bet a fair amount of money on Denver -2.

so you're doomed.
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Old 02-02-2014, 10:08 AM   #1156
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My Shoe-in of the Week is Denver over Seattle.

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Old 02-02-2014, 10:10 AM   #1157
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Big day, big game is here. A long road and a lot of things had to happen for both organizations to get here this year and and over the past few years to build the rosters up to this. Matchup almost happened 8 years ago as well.

Best of luck to Bronoco fans on here.. Not just talk when I say that if Denver and Manning beats my team, a tip of the cap for beating this incredible defense that Seattle is privileged to have had. And Manning is probably the greatest ever NFL QB, and this probably his best season to this point...anyways, will be happy (and I certainly wouldn't have said that about the Steelers before Superbowl XL) if Denver comes out ahead.

It's all in front of Seattle. A great last 4 years under Carroll, bringing all the changes with him and Schneider, but an enthusiasm that is infectious. Hopefully the defense keeps it up, Lynch gets going, and Wilson steps it up in the big game.

Hoping for a great game, the refs stay out of the way, no major injuries on either side.

For the long time and shorter time '12's
(start at 23s as the time start doesn't work on CP)




...Go 'Hawks.

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Old 02-02-2014, 10:29 AM   #1158
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Weather is perfect not cold and no wind
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Old 02-02-2014, 10:35 AM   #1159
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Here are the Flames players predictions:


GO HAWKS!!
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Old 02-02-2014, 11:15 AM   #1160
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Going to be watching the game over here in London. Starts at 1130...so I can now relate to the euro guys that try and watch the Flames. Hoping to be celebrating until the sun comes up...Go Broncos!
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