Emile Fricken' Poirier

[formulate]

As much as I hate to make the comparison, I see Emile topping out as an Alex Burrows type player (hopefully not this years' Burrows ). A 50-60 point top six gritty winger with speed, decent size, and some skill. PP, PK, a very useful, versatile forward. If Poirier becomes Burrows without the d-bagginess, I'll be ecstatic.

[macrov]

Originally Posted by Cole436

Lombo was also had the makings of a very good player from 2007-2009 on the Flames. I get that we're excited about having an abundance of higher first round picks, but we have to be realistic here. Having franchise players going past the top 10 (ex. Jarome Iginla going at #11) is an astronomical anomaly.

Best case scenario, he's a first line elite winger. At worst, he bottoms out as a third line grinder with wheels. However lets reign in expectations until he actually plays a game in the NHL.

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corey_Perry

[Cole436]

Originally Posted by macrov

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corey_Perry

In the last 24 years, here are the names of franchise NHL forwards that have come out of first round after pick #10

Keith Tkachuk
Markus Naslund
Alexei Kovalev
Jarome Iginla
Marian Hossa
Simon Gagne
Zach Parise
Ryan Getzlaf
Corey Perry
Ryan Kesler
Anze Kopitar
Claude Giroux

To a lesser extent
Jordan Eberle
Todd Bertuzzi
Daniel Briere
Mike Richards
Alex Semin


They do happen, however it is very rare and it's not fair to put expectations on Poirier being the 3% chance of that type of player.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by macrov

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corey_Perry

Corey Perry 6' 3" - 2.2 PPG in last year junior
Emile Poirier 6' 1' - 1.4 PPG this year

Not at all comparable

[Gary83]

Originally Posted by T@T

Lets not get carried away. three of those are playing pro hockey against men, one is the best goalie in the NCAA and the little guy can certainly do things at high speed, infact he's doing things not seen in the NCAA in about 20 years.

I love Gillies, but he's not the best goalie in the NCAA, you tell him not to get carried away but then do the absolute same in regards to Gillies?

[Gary83]

Originally Posted by Cole436

In the last 24 years, here are the names of franchise NHL forwards that have come out of first round after pick #10

Keith Tkachuk
Markus Naslund
Alexei Kovalev
Jarome Iginla
Marian Hossa
Simon Gagne
Zach Parise
Ryan Getzlaf
Corey Perry
Ryan Kesler
Anze Kopitar
Claude Giroux

To a lesser extent
Jordan Eberle
Todd Bertuzzi
Daniel Briere
Mike Richards
Alex Semin


They do happen, however it is very rare and it's not fair to put expectations on Poirier being the 3% chance of that type of player.

Benn?
Datsyuk?
Zetterberg?
Pavelski?
Alfredsson?


Those are just off the top of my head without looking at any lists, so I'd be willing to bet there's a hell of a lot more.

[DropIt]

Originally Posted by Gary83

Benn?
Datsyuk?
Zetterberg?
Pavelski?
Alfredsson?


Those are just off the top of my head without looking at any lists, so I'd be willing to bet there's a hell of a lot more.

I think he means still first round draft picks, but outside the top ten. Picks from #11-#30

[saillias]

How about Max Pacioretty as an NHL comparable?

Drafted 22nd overall in 2007, 6'2" power forward with similar skillset(?). Played his draft year +1 in the NCAA, then immediately made the jump to pro, and played 2 and a half seasons bouncing between Hamilton and Montreal, really coming into his own in 2010-2011.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Cole436

Lombo was also had the makings of a very good player from 2007-2009 on the Flames.

Agreed, but with the rather notable caveat that his NHL success was attributed almost entirely to his incredible straight-ahead foot-speed. Lombardi tantalised fans with how many odd-man opportunities he would generate or become part of, simply because he skated faster than everyone else on the ice. However, his problem was a frustrating lack of finish.

I will say this again: Lombardi is an very, VERY poor comparable player from which to project expectations for Poirier. Poirier has similar skating abilities, but he is bigger, stronger, handles the puck better, is a better shooter and passer, and thinks the game at a higher level. Poirier is better in practically every respect than Lombardi was, and it's not even that close.

Originally Posted by Cole436

I get that we're excited about having an abundance of higher first round picks, but we have to be realistic here. Having franchise players going past the top 10 (ex. Jarome Iginla going at #11) is an astronomical anomaly.

I don't share macrov's projection of Poirier as a franchise winger. My point in posting was to show how utterly horrible your comparison was between Poirier and Lombardi. If Poirier turns out to be not much better than Lombardi, then we should consider this pick something of a bust. The good news is that he has everything going for him to suggest that he will be a top-six winger.

Just a terrible, terrible comparison.

Originally Posted by Cole436

Best case scenario, he's a first line elite winger. At worst, he bottoms out as a third line grinder with wheels. However lets reign in expectations until he actually plays a game in the NHL.

I disagree. Based on his skill set and his development curve to date, we should expect Poirier to be a top six winger, with the potential to be a top-line—perhaps even elite—winger. We should not expect less than this, and if he tops out on the third line, people should be disappointed.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by formulate

...Alex Burrows...

Originally Posted by Gary83

Benn?...

Originally Posted by saillias

...Max Pacioretty...

These are all really good comparables for Poirier, in my opinion. He will be above-average sized, and combined with his skating speed, great hands, good shot, and his competitive instincts, there is no reason why he can't be a great NHL player.

[macrov]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

Corey Perry 6' 3" - 2.2 PPG in last year junior
Emile Poirier 6' 1' - 1.4 PPG this year

Not at all comparable

You're comparing Perry's 20 yr old season to Poirier's 19 year old season.

And Perry's adult hight to Poirier's 19 year old height.

Age 17
Perry: 28g 31a - 59p - 56pim
Poirier 15g 25a - 40p - 53pim

Age 18
Perry: 25g 53a - 78p - 147pim
Poirier 32g 28a - 70p - 101pim

Age 19
Poirier - 1.45 ppg - on pace for 147pim
Perry - 1.7ppg - 98pim

Also, at age 19 Perry played with Schremp as his C. And with Wideman as his defenseman, on one of the best teams in the OHL. poirier plays with no one. So arguably, Perry's numbers are inflated considerably, which explains why his numbers jumped

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by macrov

...at age 19 Perry played with Schremp as his C. And with Wideman as his defenseman, on one of the best teams in the OHL. poirier plays with no one. So arguably, Perry's numbers are inflated considerably, which explains why his numbers jumped

The fact that Poirier plays in the QMJHL, where scoring a point/game is a pretty average achievement, likely also inflates his numbers in comparisons against OHL players.

[macrov]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

The fact that Poirier plays in the QMJHL, where scoring a point/game is a pretty average achievement, likely also inflates his numbers in comparisons against OHL players.

This is true as well.

Its a difficult to compare points between players without context. Valid point. I was just trying to show that if you were going to do such a trivial comparison, its not as out of whack as the way it was first presented.

In the end, you watch him play and you see something special or you don't. I see something special. I see a player with speed, skill, hockey smarts and tenacity.

[Mitch]

For comparisons sake, Perry's team had 300 GF in the 03-04 season in the OHL, while Poirier's team is on pace for about 253 GF.

EDIT: so Perry was involved in about 37.7% of his teams offense in that season, while Poirier is involved in about 35.5% of his teams offense to date. Perry also missed 2 games that season, while Poirier has missed 4 games thus far. It's pretty close.

[saillias]

Originally Posted by macrov

You're comparing Perry's 20 yr old season to Poirier's 19 year old season.

And Perry's adult hight to Poirier's 19 year old height.

Age 17
Perry: 28g 31a - 59p - 56pim
Poirier 15g 25a - 40p - 53pim

Age 18
Perry: 25g 53a - 78p - 147pim
Poirier 32g 28a - 70p - 101pim

Age 19
Poirier - 1.45 ppg - on pace for 147pim
Perry - 1.7ppg - 98pim

Also, at age 19 Perry played with Schremp as his C. And with Wideman as his defenseman, on one of the best teams in the OHL. poirier plays with no one. So arguably, Perry's numbers are inflated considerably, which explains why his numbers jumped

Yup that London Knights team was one of the best Junior teams ever IIRC. Prust played for them as well. Danny Syvret won CHL defenseman of the year.

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

The fact that Poirier plays in the QMJHL, where scoring a point/game is a pretty average achievement, likely also inflates his numbers in comparisons against OHL players.

There's not that much of a difference (not now at anyrate). The mean average goals per team in the QMJHL last year was 237.6 in the OHL it was 229.8. Not a huge difference... 0.115 additional goals per game.

[djsFlames]

I suppose MacKinnnon and Drouin were slightly overrated too, then?

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by macrov

Watching him play, I believe he is our best prospec. Better than Sven, granlund, Reinhart, Gilles, or Gaudreau.

What makes Poirier so special is that he can do eveything at top speed. A lot of other quick players don't have the hands or the shot; they have to slow it down to make the move or take the shot. Poirer does not. He's intense.

I wonder if he makes the team out of camp next year.

There is virtually no chance of that happening - unless he takes a quantum leap in his progression over the summer.

He would be doing exceptionally well if he makes the team after one season in Abby.

[moon]

Originally Posted by macrov

You're comparing Perry's 20 yr old season to Poirier's 19 year old season.

And Perry's adult hight to Poirier's 19 year old height.

Corey Perry didn't play in OHL when he was 20. You are off on your years.

He played 16, 17, 18 and 19.

When he was 20 he was in AHL.

Perry's 139 point season is comparable to Poiriers in terms of age.

[Azure]

Perry is a 50 goal scorer at the NHL level.

If Poirier is even half as good I'm sure we'd all be happy.