Quote:
Originally Posted by DOOM
I am a big Shinkaruk fan, I think he will develop into a solid NHLer. I have been teammates with him before, I was playing Bantam 3 and we were able to call up players from Peewee 1. He dominated, haha.
His offense was helped by Etem during his 17 year old WHL year.
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Textcritic brings up a fine point though - but I am not sure the rationale is correct. I think Shinkaruk is fairly underdeveloped physically still, isn't he? I think he is fairly thin still, and was not expected to make the NHL in his first year at least due to being too small still.
What I think that perhaps scouts keyed-in on is that Shinkaruk isn't able to fight through opposing lines and be that consistent offensive threat night in and night out.
Take a look at Monahan. He was labeled as the 3rd best player after MacKinnon and Jones before their draft seasons started. Monahan played with vastly inferior teammates than Shinkaruk, but still managed to get the same point totals, in slightly less games. He didn't show regression, and though the lack of quality offensive linemates forced the question as to how offensive Monahan really could be, his stock still dropped from 3rd on the 'consensus' lists, down to 5th-8th on some lists - being drafted by the Flames at 6th.
Shinkaruk lost some teammates definitely, and we should expect a regression of sorts in points, it doesn't always happen - especially to premier players in Junior.
Yakupov missed games in his draft season, and he missed his center Galchenyuk for all but a handful of games. However, his ppg in his draft year was 1.64 (0.73 gpg)which was an increase from 1.55 (0.75gpg).
Hunter Shinkaruk went from 1.37 in his second year in junior, to 1.34 - a slight regression. However, he went from 0.74gpg down to 0.58gpg - not such a slight regression. This with probably the rumored concerns on his attitude and his interviews at the combines were probably the two biggest issues that dropped him in the draft.
Comparing Monahan just for kicks - went from 1.26PPG (0.53GPG) to 1.34PPG (0.53GPG). He managed to keep his goal scoring consistent, and increased his points per game, even though he had much less talent to play with and facing the toughest competition in the entire league.
Will Shinkaruk flop? Was the drop justified? Who knows. There was definitely reasons to be concerned, and if Monahan dropped 3 spots for not rising as much as people perhaps expected, than Shinkaruk can fall 15 spots because his scoring (especially goal scoring) regressed in his 3rd year in the CHL. The draft is ruthless that way, and only time will ever tell what prospect fell too harshly, or whether that prospect didn't fall hard enough.
Poirier in hindsight, was looked at as a big riser in the draft. People rolled their eyes a bit when the Flames picked him, thinking: "Here we go again, the Flames reaching for a pick that screams 'we are smarter than everyone else', and who is probably going to bust." It is almost not even fair to compare the two at this point, as Poirier has been such an incredible development arc. But let's do it.
Poirier went from 0.60PPG and 0.22GPG the year before his draft - his first year in the CHL (Shinkaruk and Monahan both were there in the CHL a year prior), to 1.08PPG and 0.49GPG. That is a big increase, and most of it came in the back-half of the season. I am not sure where he was ranked at the start of the season, but he seemed to be on a lot of lists as a 2nd round, and on a few as a possible first. Safe to say this has been a very good selection thus far. He was (and is still) the offensive leader on the team in both his draft year and this year - as was Monahan in his draft year.
I think the best comparison is between Shinkaruk and Yakupov. They both lost their premier centermen in their draft years (Shinkaruk lost Etem, Yak lost Galchenyuk). They both had a high-scoring center left that they played with, who were older returnees (Valk for Shinkaruk, Sarault for Yak). Yak increased his offence, Shinkaruk regressed. Yak was still selected (and ranked) as the 1st over-all pick, while Shinkaruk fell from the initial rankings of 5-10 preseason to 24th.
Regression is an absolute killer in the drafts. Though you would assume that the graduation of notable skilled linemates as a legitimate excuse should compensate, it really doesn't appear to.
Nobody is going to say at this point that Shinkaruk sucks or that he is a junk prospect of any type - he has tonnes of offensive upside. Regression coupled with rumored bad interviews dropped him, as it would any other prospect.
