[OT] Faithful fans getting fed up with mediocrity: Jets losing sales sizzle

[puckluck2]

Yeah I don't think jet fans see reality clearly. You're 17th in revenue in the first few years you've had your team back. Do you think it's going to go up without a new building? Middle of the pack is your peak and there is no where but down to go.

And yes I do hope the jets fail just like I hope the Oilers and Canucks fail. The honeymoon is over. Screw the Jets.

[Senator Clay Davis]

Originally Posted by SeeBass

Can anybody give me a list of all the clubs who everybody wants to play for when they are a losing team? I don't think it would be a very big list should be pretty easy to make.

I bet I can make a list of clubs everybody wants to play for much easier and surprise surprise they are also winning.

A perfect example is Detroit watch this place fall of the UFA map in the next couple of years.

Its not the franchise quality we're talking about (i.e winning/losing). Its the city of Winnipeg. Its, well, a ####ing boring ass place to live. Basically if everything is equal, Winnipeg is probably the last city every player would want to live in (a battle with Edmonton). Sorry, but its true. Players would rather live in California and play in front of fair weather fans than live in Winnipeg and...do....something? Be cold? Die? Anything else to do in Winnipeg?

[SeeBass]

^And I would like to point out again that name me a winning hockey club and I will show you where UFA's want to play. This is not new and you know it. This has been the way it is in all sports.

I appreciate your opinion about Winnipeg but as a Flames fan we are both hoping to build a successful franchise through the draft cause nobody is busting down the flames door to play here either.

It wasn't long ago nobody wanted to go to Chicago or Pitts either.

You have to win plain and simple

[burn_baby_burn]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

Its not the franchise quality we're talking about (i.e winning/losing). Its the city of Winnipeg. Its, well, a ####ing boring ass place to live. Basically if everything is equal, Winnipeg is probably the last city every player would want to live in (a battle with Edmonton). Sorry, but its true. Players would rather live in California and play in front of fair weather fans than live in Winnipeg and...do....something? Be cold? Die? Anything else to do in Winnipeg?

The list probably goes something like this.

30. Buffalo
29. Winnipeg
28. Calgary
27. Edmonton

Again, why would Flames fans point fingers? Because the differnece between Edmonton, Calgary, or Winnipeg from a players perspective from Eastern Canada, Europe, or the United States is probably no different.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by The Yen Man

How much of True North Entertainment does David Thompson own anyways? Depending on how much he owns, the only thing Winnipeg may have is an owner with deeper pockets, seeing as Thompson is the richest guy in Canada (net worth of over 20 billion vs. Murray Edwards, who only has around 2 billion). But then again, these guys didn't become billionaires by investing long term in a losing business model. So I guess the real question is, how much are the Jets willing to lose every year to have a competitive team?

Actually, David Thomson became a billionaire when his dad died, and there isn't any evidence that he would be wealthy otherwise. Also, he hasn't exactly done a bang up job managing the family money. His primary accomplishments since taking over in 2006 have been:


1) Thomson corp value destructive merger with Reuters. Thomson corp stock down ~10% in the 7 years he's been in charge. The TSX is up ~10% and the S&P up ~35% in that time, so its been a pretty significant underperformance.


2) Paid up for the Jets. The jury is still out on this one, (see the controversy in this thread) But the idea that it can't fail because this rich guy is so smart is deeply flawed.

[Howie_16]

Originally Posted by Resurrection

It really seems like there's some here who just want to see the Jets fail.

Guilty as charged. Jets suck!

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by burn_baby_burn

The list probably goes something like this.

30. Buffalo
29. Winnipeg
28. Calgary
27. Edmonton

Again, why would Flames fans point fingers? Because the differnece between Edmonton, Calgary, or Winnipeg from a players perspective from Eastern Canada, Europe, or the United States is probably no different.

You have Edmonton listed as more desirable than Calgary. Sorry but your list is wrong and this isn't me being homer as there is no way Edmonton is more desirable than Calgary for most players.

[TheDebaser]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

You have Edmonton listed as more desirable than Calgary. Sorry but your list is wrong and this isn't me being homer as there is no way Edmonton is more desirable than Calgary for most players.

Some people buy into the hype. (e.g. Justin Schultz)

[iggy_oi]

Originally Posted by TheDebaser

Some people buy into the hype. (e.g. Justin Schultz)

He went there for guaranteed playing time, he'll put up big numbers then bolt as a ufa whether or not the team is still in the toilet

[Mr.Coffee]

who cares about attracting millionaire UFA's anyway? They're usually overpaid, and most championship teams are not built by UFA signings so really, who gives a ####.

We cheer for the team, rarely the player except in special circumstances and I for one could not care less if some too-cool-for-school overpaid athlete doesn't want to live in Calgary because there are more laser tag options in St.Louis or sunrays in California. Good, fill your boots Mr.UFA, you'll probably half ass it anyway game in-game out.

[strombad]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

You have Edmonton listed as more desirable than Calgary. Sorry but your list is wrong and this isn't me being homer as there is no way Edmonton is more desirable than Calgary for most players.

Plus, places like Florida or Long Island weren't included, and those are constantly rated at the bottom of desirability polls.

Calgary is an excellent place for the affluent. I can't imagine they are top ten in the league or anything, but I'd bet good money they rank 5 or more places higher than Winnipeg at very least, likely in the 15-20 range even in a rebuild. As well, unlike Edmonton and Winnipeg, Calgary is currently on the upswing, while Winnipeg is trending down and Edmonton is currently stagnating.

Edmonton still has a lot of potential, they could be a talented contending team which would certainly help their shortcomings and move them much higher on the desirability list. Winnipeg is likely to remain low for quite some time. Similar climate to Edmonton, not quite as comfortable for the affluent, almost none of the pedigree, and trending downwards.

Regardless, teams outside of the Original Six and in a much lesser sense outside the 67 expansion teams are going to have a hard time cracking the top 10. Most everyone else just jumbles around based on quality of management, quality of team, and the city's quality of life. Plus, throwing money around helps.

[macrov]

Originally Posted by strombad

They need a new rink, but not for the reasons you're supposing.

Calgary needs a new rink because theirs is outdated, and it generally affects the revenue streams outside of hockey.

Winnipeg needs a new rink because even if they sell out their current rink their attendance would rank in the bottom 10 teams of the league.

Higher need: Winnipeg
If the average ticket price for those 4500-6000 seats they are missing is say... $150 (assuming none of them would be lower bowl, etc) then Winnipeg is costing themselves approximately 675,000-900,000 in revenue EVERY GAME. That's generally over 30 MILLION dollars they aren't getting every year.

That's downright embarrassing. It's one thing if you have the space and the people don't come, it's another if you don't even have the space.

Originally Posted by New Era

That is true. Let's rework the numbers then, based on the average ticket prices and potential revenues just from seat sales.

Flames have a capacity of 19,289 @ 262.10 X 41 games = $207,281,522.90

Jets have a capacity of 15,004 @ 276.69 X 41 games = $170,209,727.16

A difference of $37,071,795.75. Off by a little less than $6M.

Where are you guys getting these numbers from? (1)check the price list...how many seats in the dome cost $200+ per game? I doubt the average face value per seat is anywhere near $260 a game (2) the flames have 14k season tickets that they get season ticket price revenues on, they're not getting door prices on 75%+ of their seats, but sell them at a discount to sths (3) the Jets are missing the most marginal seats...so $25 a ticket. So why you're basing numbers on avg pricing is a mystery (4) an average stadium in the NHL seats around 17k, the dome fits more because they have fewer luxury seats...and luxury seats are the highest revenue seats, so the flames are have more cheap seats but less expensive seats (5) Winnipeg purposely wanted a small stadium to increase scarcity value because it lowers the likelihood people will give up their season seats b/c when their is a wait list there is a lower probability of getting the seats back when the team so good: aka contributes to a stronger primary market and gives more stability when the team sucks. The largest value of having season tickets is the playoff rights, and the value increases with the length of the wait list.

[stamps]

Originally Posted by New Era

Dumb move by the NHL heading back to Winnipeg. Not enough corporate support to keep them alive when the fan support starts to dwindle. Players will not want to go to Winnipeg as free agents and it will be tough to keep the players they have. Smallest building in the league with no hope of a new building in sight, the revenues just aren't going to be there. The player situation will only get worse, so this is a franchise destined to be at the bottom of the league for a very long time. They may go on a short run here and there, but they will be a feeder team to the bigger markets around the league for as long as they survive.

Wow.... I just started reading this thread ..... I have never been to Winnipeg but come on... Winnipeg may be a small market and cold but so is most of Canada's markets relative to the US .... peoples attitudes in this country are depressing .... these players that don't want to play here, for the most part, are FROM here ..... I'm hoping the day will come in this country when people here shed the ####ty image we have of ourselves... we are all very lucky .... Canada's money ......

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by macrov

...Winnipeg purposely wanted a small stadium to increase scarcity value because it lowers the likelihood people will give up their season seats b/c when their is a wait list there is a lower probability of getting the seats back when the team so good: aka contributes to a stronger primary market and gives more stability when the team sucks. The largest value of having season tickets is the playoff rights, and the value increases with the length of the wait list.

I think that the MTS Centre is probably correctly sized for the Winnipeg market, but this goes back to the issue of the suitability of Winnipeg as a NHL market in the first place. I'm still on the side that it is too small to sustain a NHL team long-term. On the macro level, things look average for the Jets right now, because they are hovering close to the middle-of-the-pack in terms of League revenue. On a micro-level, thing are not likely to ever be better for the Jets than they are now. In fact, factoring in the inevitable sag that WILL accompany the diminishing novelty, and factoring in the Jets' payroll limitations which WILL dramatically affect their ability to build a team, things look to get substantially worse in the course of the next several years.

As season ticket holders, Jets fans must be wondering about the "value" of their tickets for a team whose payroll is presently in the middle-of-the-pack, and realistically with two more years to make substantial strides on the ice before the cold hard reality of unrestricted free agency begins to hit them. Two years in which the cap is expected to surpass $70.0 m. Based on what you see today, does this look like a team that will be ready to compete for the playoffs in two year's time? With high-water contracts needed for Ladd and Byfuglien? With big raises coming at that time for Scheifele and Trouba, and then Enstrom and Little, and then Wheeler and likely Josh Morrisey? In a market that has already maximised its gate revenues, it is difficult to imagine how a bubble-team will manage to find the money to cover some truly frightening escalating expenses over the course of the next few years. The Jets will be entering a period in that time in which they will need a premium level payroll to ice their current team, but must attempt to do so from lower-half League revenue levels.

Again, the talk of high value for STH in terms of playoff first-refusal rights is premature at best, and disingenuous at worst. Project forward four years, and how tough a sell is a price increase in a market that currently ranks #3 in avg. ticket costs?

[SeeBass]

Originally Posted by strombad

Plus, places like Florida or Long Island weren't included, and those are constantly rated at the bottom of desirability polls.

Calgary is an excellent place for the affluent. I can't imagine they are top ten in the league or anything, but I'd bet good money they rank 5 or more places higher than Winnipeg at very least, likely in the 15-20 range even in a rebuild. As well, unlike Edmonton and Winnipeg, Calgary is currently on the upswing, while Winnipeg is trending down and Edmonton is currently stagnating.

Edmonton still has a lot of potential, they could be a talented contending team which would certainly help their shortcomings and move them much higher on the desirability list. Winnipeg is likely to remain low for quite some time. Similar climate to Edmonton, not quite as comfortable for the affluent, almost none of the pedigree, and trending downwards.

Regardless, teams outside of the Original Six and in a much lesser sense outside the 67 expansion teams are going to have a hard time cracking the top 10. Most everyone else just jumbles around based on quality of management, quality of team, and the city's quality of life. Plus, throwing money around helps.

I wish before I went down the conversation road with you that somebody would have told me that you like to just pull things out of your ace. it would have saved me a lot of time.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by Resurrection

It really seems like there's some here who just want to see the Jets fail.

Given how many Winnipeg fans behaved prior to getting their team, one might say this sentiment is deserved.

So the Jets peak is 15th in revenue (which will go up as they expand their business in Winnipeg with a casino). But assuming the best they can do is 15th, what's wrong with that? Calgary and Edmonton are peaked out too at 10-14th spots. Maybe they can get into the top 10 with new buildings.

The concern is not what the team could do at its absolute very best case scenario. The concern is what the typical scenario will be, and what will happen when fans become fed up with a product that is not improving and an ownership/management group that has thus far shown no interest in improving. The team was very astute to demand 3 and 5 year commitments from season ticket holders, and since it is the cheap seats coming up this year, those will be easy to re-sell, the Jets are still a couple years away from finding out where their balance will be.

(BTW, the Casino will not be part of HRR, so is irrelevant to this discussion).

I would think that the smallest market in the NHL being able to come up with top half league revenues is something to celebrate as a win for the NHL. Instead of the Flames and Oilers paying for Atlanta to exist, now they can keep the money because Winnipeg is self sufficient.

Again, Winnipeg is (marginally) self-sufficient in the absolute best case scenario. I agree with you that the Jets aren't going anywhere for a long time. And much of the sentiment in this thread is overreaction. But don't delude yourself into thinking they won't be receiving revenue sharing money at some point. Especially when the best case scenario wears off.

[Slanter]

Originally Posted by strombad

As well, unlike Edmonton and Winnipeg, Calgary is currently on the upswing, while Winnipeg is trending down and Edmonton is currently stagnating.

I disagree that the Jets are trending down. They're 9-3-1 against the east this year, a conference made up almost completely of teams they couldn't beat for a playoff spot last year. I think they are a better team this year, they just got moved into a much more difficult conference.

Given that all of their key players are younger than their prime playing years, I'm pretty sure the Jets will continue to improve over the next 5 years. Whether they're good enough to compete for a playoff spot (or more) at that point remains to be seen, but there is no question that the team is improving.

[strombad]

Originally Posted by SeeBass

I wish before I went down the conversation road with you that somebody would have told me that you like to just pull things out of your ace. it would have saved me a lot of time.

Why you heff to be mad?

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Slanter

...Given that all of their key players are younger than their prime playing years, I'm pretty sure the Jets will continue to improve over the next 5 years. Whether they're good enough to compete for a playoff spot (or more) at that point remains to be seen, but there is no question that the team is improving.

This will also need to be weighed against the Jets's ability to keep their roster intact as the cap continues to escalate. It will be a very difficult task given their already-maxed-out revenue potential.

[CaptainCrunch]

So the question I have is this, after looking at Forbes.

In 2011 the Atlanta Thrashers had revenue of $71 million dollars.

In 2012 the Jets had revenues of $79 million, that had to be considered their honey moon period.

Now what makes is a difference here is that in 2011 the Thrashers had a 39 million dollar payroll, in 2012 the Jets had a payroll of $46 million.

Now we have a potential sliding Canadian dollar and a sliding gate. Could it become possible that Winnipeg becomes even less profitable of a market then the Thrashers?