Bush in Big Trouble - Polls

[troutman]

www.latimes.com

scroll down to 2004 Electoral Vote Tracker

Latest polls in Florida show Kerry winning Florida 47% to 45%. 6% are still undecided in Florida. Overall, Kerry has 277 electoral votes (270 needed to win). Other states have gone to Kerry too that were for Bush in previous polls, like New Mexico.

[Cowperson]

The news of the last week couldn't get much worse for Bush.

He obviously lost the debate. Condoleeza Rice and Donald Rumsfeld submarined him. Paul Bremer got him. The report yesterday on WMD, while having something for everyone, laid out the fundamental bottom line - no WMD in Iraq.

Seven days or so that may have turned the race.

Time for a Swiftboat ad.

EDIT: Looking at the LA TImes Electoral Vote Tracker, they have Bush at 177 electoral votes, Kerry at 153 and 208 up for grabs. They have Kerry with a big 47-38 lead in Florida which is a state they say is up for grabs.

Cowperson

[octothorp]

The site that I've been watching on the electoral college still has Bush with a slight lead, but it's way closer right now than at the beginning of the week, when Bush had a roughly 60 vote lead.
http://www.electoral-vote.com

If Kerry wins all off Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Iowa (currently tied in Michigan and barely leading in the rest), that would give him the 270 he needs, even without Florida. It'll be interesting to see whether the great-lakes area or florida becomes the biggest battle-ground over the last few weeks.

[Bertuzzied]

Originally posted by Cowperson@Oct 7 2004, 05:53 PM
The news of the last week couldn't get much worse for Bush.

He obviously lost the debate. Condoleeza Rice and Donald Rumsfeld submarined him. Paul Bremer got him. The report yesterday on WMD, while having something for everyone, laid out the fundamental bottom line - no WMD in Iraq.

Seven days or so that may have turned the race.

Time for a Swiftboat ad.


Cowperson

TA DA! Hey look we captured Osama Bin Laden. Eat that michael moore.

[Bring_Back_Shantz]

Originally posted by Bertuzzied+Oct 7 2004, 12:40 PM--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (Bertuzzied @ Oct 7 2004, 12:40 PM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'> <!--QuoteBegin-Cowperson@Oct 7 2004, 05:53 PM
The news of the last week couldn't get much worse for Bush.

He obviously lost the debate. Condoleeza Rice and Donald Rumsfeld submarined him. Paul Bremer got him. The report yesterday on WMD, while having something for everyone, laid out the fundamental bottom line - no WMD in Iraq.

Seven days or so that may have turned the race.

Time for a Swiftboat ad.


Cowperson

TA DA! Hey look we captured Osama Bin Laden. Eat that michael moore. [/b][/quote]
Wow, that is one hell of a good point Bert.
I would not be supprised in the least if Osama suddenly was found some time in the next two weeks.

[troutman]

EDIT: Looking at the LA TImes Electoral Vote Tracker, they have Bush at 177 electoral votes, Kerry at 153 and 208 up for grabs. They have Kerry with a big 47-38 lead in Florida which is a state they say is up for grabs.

Right. The first map just shows the states where the candidates have big leads. You can create your own scenarios and award each state to one or the other. When I did so based on who was leading the poll in each state I got Kerry with 177 (New Hampshire being the only state even). This is the first time during this election that I have Kerry winning. Not an exact science, but Florida going to Kerry is the biggest development. I think all the black voters that were disenfranchised in Florida in 2000 are coming out strong for the Democrats in 2004.

Looking at www.electoral-vote.com, I notice Bush has lost much of the big lead he had in Colorado (9 electoral votes).

[Agamemnon]

Originally posted by Bring_Back_Shantz@Oct 7 2004, 06:43 PM
Wow, that is one hell of a good point Bert.
I would not be supprised in the least if Osama suddenly was found some time in the next two weeks.

As much as I'd like to see that, I'd be pretty surprised to learn that they found Osama weeks before the election. If anything, the lashback from the Democrats would be fierce, accusing the admin. of waiting until just the right moment in the election to release the info (and, if it happened, they'd be right). Rummy/Cheney/Condi are too smart to try that trick.

I actually thought that they might have found WMD's in Iraq back when the invasion was going on, and they were just trying to draw out all their detractors in order to identify them and destroy their credibility by releasing the info after they took a lot of heat.

Obviously, that didn't happen. Wishful thinking to believe that the Republicans are so evil as to plan exactly when to release "Bin Laden Captured" headlines. I mean, they ARE evil... just not stupid.

[Bertuzzied]

Originally posted by Bring_Back_Shantz+Oct 7 2004, 06:43 PM--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (Bring_Back_Shantz @ Oct 7 2004, 06:43 PM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'>

TA DA! Hey look we captured Osama Bin Laden. Eat that michael moore.

Wow, that is one hell of a good point Bert.
I would not be supprised in the least if Osama suddenly was found some time in the next two weeks. [/b][/quote]
Of course it wouldn't really matter because Osama didn't attack the US. Saddam did! They should blame the aids epidemic on Iraq too. Aids started when Saddam started to crossbreed iraqi's and orang-utans.

I feel so sorry for the Americans if Bush wins again. How can it even be that close of a race???
I can't wait for the next debate!

[dirk diggler]

My favourite comment of Bush is " Sure we didnt find weapons of mass destruction, but he(saddam) could have capability to get them"... great logic, george... Really any country could get them, so bomb the world then... its no wonder he got worked over in the debate, he was on his own, didnt have anyone writing fancy speeches for him...

[Bertuzzied]

Originally posted by dirk diggler@Oct 7 2004, 08:33 PM
My favourite comment of Bush is " Sure we didnt find weapons of mass destruction, but he(saddam) could have capability to get them"... great logic, george... Really any country could get them, so bomb the world then... its no wonder he got worked over in the debate, he was on his own, didnt have anyone writing fancy speeches for him...

He does admit he is the "WAR president".
All offense and no defense. Doesn't win alot of championships, unless you have bad refereeing.

[peter12]

Originally posted by Bertuzzied+Oct 7 2004, 02:37 PM--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (Bertuzzied @ Oct 7 2004, 02:37 PM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'> <!--QuoteBegin-dirk diggler@Oct 7 2004, 08:33 PM
My favourite comment of Bush is " Sure we didnt find weapons of mass destruction, but he(saddam) could have capability to get them"... great logic, george... Really any country could get them, so bomb the world then... its no wonder he got worked over in the debate, he was on his own, didnt have anyone writing fancy speeches for him...

He does admit he is the "WAR president".
All offense and no defense. Doesn't win alot of championships, unless you have bad refereeing. [/b][/quote]
All offense never works, just ask Hitler. It seems ok at first, then over about 4 years everyone starts hating you.

[Bertuzzied]

Originally posted by peter12+Oct 7 2004, 08:40 PM--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (peter12 @ Oct 7 2004, 08:40 PM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'>

He does admit he is the "WAR president".
All offense and no defense. Doesn't win alot of championships, unless you have bad refereeing.

All offense never works, just ask Hitler. It seems ok at first, then over about 4 years everyone starts hating you. [/b][/quote]
I'm assuming you mean your own troops. I'm sure the people they are attacking would be very p*ssed off right away and not 4 years? hehe

[peter12]

Well it took the German people till about 1942 for a German resistance movement to start.

My poor point was if you keep attacking and attacking you will lose. That is applicable on many levels.

[Flame On]

Originally posted by peter12@Oct 7 2004, 08:53 PM
Well it took the German people till about 1942 for a German resistance movement to start.

My poor point was if you keep attacking and attacking you will lose. That is applicable on many levels.

You may lose the war, but you might win the battle. Is this election a war or battle?

[TheCommodoreAfro]

I was watching a show on political analysis last night here in Japan (right before the "24" double bill) and someone said something that I thought was interesting - they said Bush looks like he has a ceiling on support, and Kerry has room to grow. Nothing to back this up but I feel that as this contradictory info shows up (is the the Dems October surprise?) we could see the end of his reign.

[Cowperson]

Originally posted by TheCommodoreAfro@Oct 8 2004, 12:03 AM
I was watching a show on political analysis last night here in Japan (right before the "24" double bill) and someone said something that I thought was interesting - they said Bush looks like he has a ceiling on support, and Kerry has room to grow. Nothing to back this up but I feel that as this contradictory info shows up (is the the Dems October surprise?) we could see the end of his reign.

You could say that about both of them.

I don't think either guy has been above 55% in a poll and the numbers we see today are pretty much the same as Bush/Gore four years ago.

Most of America has made up its mind. There's about 10% that might be swayed depending on the day of the week.

Cowperson