[Trade] Flames Acquire Lane MacDermid from Dallas

[kehatch]

Originally Posted by Gaskal

WTF. So less than 1 percent multiplied a few times. Ends up still being less than 1%. Big ####ing whoop. Let's stockpile an astronomically lopsided trade off, instead of playing our assets properly.

Originally Posted by strombad

Even with 5 picks in the 6th round you've only got 0.03 chance of picking someone relevant.

You don't "stockpile" lottery tickets do you?

First, I don't know who came up with a 1% chance. Maybe to develop into a star. But numerous sources have done the math on past drafts and two points are true and pertinent. First, there is almost no difference in success rates after the 3 round. Second, you have around a 10% chance of getting an NHL player in the 4 and later rounds. A rough estimate is that you have about a 5% chance of getting an impact NHL player (not star) in those rounds.

By default you get 4 picks in those rounds. They are cheap to acquire, so lets say you manage to add 2 more. You now have a 60% chance of getting an NHL player and a 30% chance of that player being an impact player. Compound that over a couple of drafts and you are probably going to end up with a decent player or two.

It shows up on the roster. Brodie, Butler, B Jones, D Jones, McGrattan, O'Brien, Stempniak, Berra, Ramo, and Wideman were drafted in these round (Giordano, Glencross, and Smith weren't even drafted). Ferland, Knight, Ramage, Agostino, Arnold, Gaudreau, Culkin, Gordon, Roy, and Ortio are just some of the notable Flames prospects drafted in these rounds.

Calgary has been doing a better job of respecting these picks. They managed to stockpile some trading Comeau, Jackman, and Karlsson. They have trade some. But they were for Wideman, Knight, Galiardi, Colborne, and Russell. Those are all players that are probably going to be better then anyone you draft in those rounds.

But throwing a pick away on a goon and then defending it because it is 'just a 6-round pick' is short sighted. It doesn't help that MacDermid, even if he reaches his potential, is going to be the type of player that makes your team worse. These types of players do NOT defend anyone. More often then not they spend 4 minutes on the ice where we hope like crap we don't ice the puck or end up in our own zone. Good teams ice 4 competent lines. There is a reason why these guys don't see anytime in the playoff run and in the playoffs.

He also isn't a young Jackman. At least probably not. Jackman was a relevant 4-line NHLer for a few seasons. MacDermid has almost no hockey ability. It is very unlikely he is anything more then a 4 minute a night goon.

Not the end of the world. It is still a minor transaction. But it is a waste of a pick and the defense "it is just a 6-round pick" isn't a defense at all.

[GettinIggyWithIt]

[QUOTE=kehatch;4500758]

He also isn't a young Jackman. At least probably not. Jackman was a relevant 4-line NHLer for a few seasons. MacDermid has almost no hockey ability. It is very unlikely he is anything more then a 4 minute a night goon.

QUOTE]

In all fairness, Jackman wasn't a 4th line player until he was about 26/27, so MacDermid could still be a young Jackman. I wouldn't call it a waste of a pick. He might have potential on the 4th line in the future or at the very least he's a good pickup for the farm team in the short term. The Flames have a number of players in the system that they could flip to get a mid to late round pick if they really needed to.

[theoforever]

If MD defends the guys in the AHL and prevents an injury plus allows Ferland to stay out of the box and play more than it was a good trade.
If another team has a fighter you need one or everyone else is starting to look behind their shoulder.

[kehatch]

Originally Posted by theoforever

If MD defends the guys in the AHL and prevents an injury plus allows Ferland to stay out of the box and play more than it was a good trade.
If another team has a fighter you need one or everyone else is starting to look behind their shoulder.

If you don't have a fighter chances are the other team doesn't put theirs on the roster.

Regardless of what you or I think of fighters though it is pretty clear the decision is going to be taken out of our hands. The NHL is phasing out dedicated fighters from the NHL. They instigator rule basically prevents them from defending anyone. The visors / helmut rule is another step. Next season there will probably be harsher penalties for fighting.

By the time MacDermid is ready for prime time (if ever) there won't be a role for him to fill.

[theoforever]

When the day comes there is no fighting in hockey then we will not need one, until that day we do need one. Lots of teams have fighters.

[darthma]

Originally Posted by kehatch

First, I don't know who came up with a 1% chance. Maybe to develop into a star. But numerous sources have done the math on past drafts and two points are true and pertinent. First, there is almost no difference in success rates after the 3 round. Second, you have around a 10% chance of getting an NHL player in the 4 and later rounds. A rough estimate is that you have about a 5% chance of getting an impact NHL player (not star) in those rounds.

By default you get 4 picks in those rounds. They are cheap to acquire, so lets say you manage to add 2 more. You now have a 60% chance of getting an NHL player and a 30% chance of that player being an impact player. Compound that over a couple of drafts and you are probably going to end up with a decent player or two.

Not that I disagree with the spirit of the post, but the math is wrong. Each 'pick' is an independent event, so you can't add them. An independent event means that each pick is NOT dependent on the other. In other words, 10% chance of a NHL roster player for 6 picks != (not equal) to 60% chance.

Based on your basic number (10% chance that a pick turns into a roster player in the last four rounds), the chances of getting a roster player follows a binomial distribution (either he becomes a roster player or he doesn't).

Doing the math (yes, I'm a dork), the two scenarios kehatch presents are:

4 picks in the last 4 rounds:
Probability of getting 0 roster players = 65.61%
Probability of getting 1 roster player = 29.16%
Probability of getting 2 roster players = 4.86%
Probability of getting 3 roster players = 0.36%
Probability of getting 4 roster players = 0.01%

6 picks in the last 4 rounds:
Probability of getting 0 roster players = 53.14%
Probability of getting 1 roster player = 35.43%
Probability of getting 2 roster players = 9.84%
Probability of getting 3 roster players = 1.46%
Probability of getting 4 roster players = 0.12%
Probability of getting 5 roster players = 0.0054%
Probability of getting 6 roster players = 0.0001%

The most telling number is 100% - the probability of getting NO roster players (= probability of getting 1 OR MORE roster player). By adding two picks, you now have a 46.86% chance of getting a roster player, whereas with four picks you had a 34.39% chance of getting a roster player. That's an increase of ~15%.

Are those odds that you like? Are those odds that the management team likes?

So now you know... and knowing is half the battle.

[kehatch]

Originally Posted by darthma

Not that I disagree with the spirit of the post, but the math is wrong. Each 'pick' is an independent event, so you can't add them. An independent event means that each pick is NOT dependent on the other. In other words, 10% chance of a NHL roster player for 6 picks != (not equal) to 60% chance.

Based on your basic number (10% chance that a pick turns into a roster player in the last four rounds), the chances of getting a roster player follows a binomial distribution (either he becomes a roster player or he doesn't).

Doing the math (yes, I'm a dork), the two scenarios kehatch presents are:

4 picks in the last 4 rounds:
Probability of getting 0 roster players = 65.61%
Probability of getting 1 roster player = 29.16%
Probability of getting 2 roster players = 4.86%
Probability of getting 3 roster players = 0.36%
Probability of getting 4 roster players = 0.01%

6 picks in the last 4 rounds:
Probability of getting 0 roster players = 53.14%
Probability of getting 1 roster player = 35.43%
Probability of getting 2 roster players = 9.84%
Probability of getting 3 roster players = 1.46%
Probability of getting 4 roster players = 0.12%
Probability of getting 5 roster players = 0.0054%
Probability of getting 6 roster players = 0.0001%

The most telling number is 100% - the probability of getting NO roster players (= probability of getting 1 OR MORE roster player). By adding two picks, you now have a 46.86% chance of getting a roster player, whereas with four picks you had a 34.39% chance of getting a roster player. That's an increase of ~15%.

Are those odds that you like? Are those odds that the management team likes?

So now you know... and knowing is half the battle.

The point is that the chances of getting a player with later round picks isn't insignificant, and the more of them you have the better the chance of getting a roster player. But thanks for the stats quiz!

We acquired a goon who doesn't play very good hockey. It cost us a pick and as a rebuilding team we need to be stockpiling those not throwing them away. And perhaps most importantly we blew one of our remaining contracts. Assuming they are going to save three of them for the college guys that leaves us with only 1 more contract we can use.

None of it makes any sense except that in the Flames outdated thinking they need a goon in the AHL. Clearly they are scoring too much and winning too many games so they need to even things out by putting a liability on the roster.

But to be frank, I have spent too much time posting on a minor league transaction.

[Mister Yamoto]

If he makes the Flames I am going to call him Lanny MacDermid. I can't wait.

[Gaskal]

Originally Posted by Mister Yamoto

If he makes the Flames I am going to call him Lanny MacDermid. I can't wait.

Should convince him to let Lanny advise him on growing an epic mustache.

[Calgary4LIfe]

Originally Posted by kehatch

The point is that the chances of getting a player with later round picks isn't insignificant, and the more of them you have the better the chance of getting a roster player. But thanks for the stats quiz!

We acquired a goon who doesn't play very good hockey. It cost us a pick and as a rebuilding team we need to be stockpiling those not throwing them away. And perhaps most importantly we blew one of our remaining contracts. Assuming they are going to save three of them for the college guys that leaves us with only 1 more contract we can use.

None of it makes any sense except that in the Flames outdated thinking they need a goon in the AHL. Clearly they are scoring too much and winning too many games so they need to even things out by putting a liability on the roster.

But to be frank, I have spent too much time posting on a minor league transaction.

Are you sure that this is all he is, and ever will be?

I haven't seen much of him play aside from that last game against Dallas (didn't notice if he played the first game Calgary had against him, and have only watched one other Dallas game this year). However, the Dallas fans seem to feel he has more upside than just an enforcer. They feel he will be a solid 4th liner playing a regular shift. If that's the case, then this is a really, really solid trade since the chances of drafting someone like that with that pick would be tough to do.

If you feel he is nothing short of an enforcer (and also think enforcers are not worth even a 6th round pick), then so be it. It just seems like this kid has more potential than just a 3-5 minute a game guy. As PMM stated earlier, this really helps the Heat right now, and takes a lot of the burden from one of our better (in my opinion) prospects there.

[Mister Yamoto]

Originally Posted by Gaskal

Should convince him to let Lanny advise him on growing an epic mustache.

and becoming an elite sniper!

[browna]

Originally Posted by Mister Yamoto

and becoming an elite sniper!

and moon walk in Pied Pickle Commercials or sing Apollo Muffler Commercials.

[Cleveland Steam Whistle]

Meet you at the pickle.

[moon]

Originally Posted by Calgary4LIfe

Are you sure that this is all he is, and ever will be?

I haven't seen much of him play aside from that last game against Dallas (didn't notice if he played the first game Calgary had against him, and have only watched one other Dallas game this year). However, the Dallas fans seem to feel he has more upside than just an enforcer. They feel he will be a solid 4th liner playing a regular shift. If that's the case, then this is a really, really solid trade since the chances of drafting someone like that with that pick would be tough to do.

If you feel he is nothing short of an enforcer (and also think enforcers are not worth even a 6th round pick), then so be it. It just seems like this kid has more potential than just a 3-5 minute a game guy. As PMM stated earlier, this really helps the Heat right now, and takes a lot of the burden from one of our better (in my opinion) prospects there.

He is 24 with a total of 20 NHL games and some very poor numbers from junior and the AHL. I guess it is possible that he is a late bloomer or a really solid defensive player that wasn't able to score at junior but even most 4th liners put up decent numbers in junior.

I don't really think he is just a goon as he doesn't really have the size to just be that but he doesn't show a whole lot of promise of being more than a 5 min guy at the NHL level.

He appears to be a fit for what he is being used for and that is a AHL tough guy that can help protect the guys down there and throw his weight around.

[Calgary4LIfe]

Originally Posted by moon

He is 24 with a total of 20 NHL games and some very poor numbers from junior and the AHL. I guess it is possible that he is a late bloomer or a really solid defensive player that wasn't able to score at junior but even most 4th liners put up decent numbers in junior.

I don't really think he is just a goon as he doesn't really have the size to just be that but he doesn't show a whole lot of promise of being more than a 5 min guy at the NHL level.

He appears to be a fit for what he is being used for and that is a AHL tough guy that can help protect the guys down there and throw his weight around.

Agreed that his number aren't great, and I wouldn't expect them to go up at the NHL level at all even with solid development time. I for one have barely seen the kid play at all. I just see that a few Dallas fans were not thrilled to see him leave, as they felt he was solid defensively, had good wheels and hit everything in sight. Being a good fighter was a definite plus to his game by the sounds of it, not just his only trick.

Hopefully that is what he will bring in the future.

[doctajones428]

I don't see what the big deal is.

Instead of waiting 4 years and hoping who we drafted in the 6th round develops into a comparable or better player than McDermid, we got McDermid

[dying4acup]

I don't think a lot of people are getting it. A lot of very good flames prospects in Abottsford (currently playing great hockey) are getting bullied and playing small. The flames would have loved to send Jackman down to the A to protect them, and get more out of them. That wasn't possible, so they did the next best thing.

This could make The Heat a Calder Cup winner. THIS WILL BENEFIT OUR AHL PROSPECTS IN A HUGE WAY!!

And what exactly did the flames lose? 10min/game, every 2-3 games?

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by dying4acup

I don't think a lot of people are getting it. A lot of very good flames prospects in Abottsford (currently playing great hockey) are getting bullied and playing small. The flames would have loved to send Jackman down to the A to protect them, and get more out of them. That wasn't possible, so they did the next best thing.

This could make The Heat a Calder Cup winner. THIS WILL BENEFIT OUR AHL PROSPECTS IN A HUGE WAY!!

And what exactly did the flames lose? 10min/game, every 2-3 games?

Came to say this ^

The Heat are leading the A. And they are young. I am hoping that they can make a deep run in the playoffs because it would do wonders for their development.

We just acquired a guy that will help them all feel two inches taller. He may never be an NHLer, but he will help facilitate the environment in which our actual prospects are developing.

That costs us a 6th round pick. A 6th.

This past summer, we had a poll ranking our prospects and it was fun because we were still voting on some pretty decent players in the 15 to 20 range. And we're going to get a lottery pick again this year (and possibly another 1st as well).

I agree that you should stockpile picks, not waste them. But this was a smart investment - and we could afford it.

[neo45]

I look at this like we sent Jackman down to help our AHL team, without having to expose him to waivers

[Gaskal]

Originally Posted by neo45

I look at this like we sent Jackman down to help our AHL team, without having to expose him to waivers

Also waved a magic wand and made him younger & more full of testosterone.