Ryan Lambert article on sending Monahan down

[Dagger]

It's written poorly but the reasons why it's written are valid. Monahan is supplying points now, but statistics suggest he's going to eventually fall down from this pace....and the question becomes is it worth keeping Monahan up for a whole year to play 10-12 minutes a game with little to no PP time? He's 8th amongst Flames forwards in PP time and he's getting just over 13 mins of ice time with these numbers likely decreasing as Stajan and Cammy come back into the lineup.

He's doing very well, and it's a thrill to have him up so it really comes down to if you think he's better playing 10-12 minutes(with the occasional scratch being a possibility) in the NHL or going back to dominate the AHL, because he isn't going to score at this pace throughout the year which takes away a lot of the "good" that he brings to this team right now.

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by New Era

It is a well known, and long standing joke around the league, that a lot of stats are interpreted differently from arena to arena. That's all that needs to be said on the subject, because everyone in the game knows that certain teams cook the books. No attempt to discredit, the statisticians do it themselves. I am very interested to know how you know shots are meticulously tracked? Unless you are watching every game and are auditing the shot trackers you have no idea how accurate they are. Again, Boston is infamous for pumping up the shots for. Other buildings are generous in the hits department while others hardly give any. It is interpretation of what constitutes a given stat that is sorely lacking and which brings all of these measures into question. But I'm not changing your mind, so we'll leave it at that.

If what you are saying regarding Boston is true, then wouldn't there be a bigger variation in their home and road Fenwick/Corsi numbers relative to other teams? If their home numbers were getting pumped up by biased statisticians then it would follow that their road numbers should dip more than with other teams, would it not? Effectively, their home ranking would be artificially high and their road ranking would be more in line with their actual play.

However, looking at the numbers over the last 5 seasons it's pretty clear that that's not the case, as in each of those years their rankings at home and on the road are virtually identical to each other. That largest gap is a difference of 3 positions (3rd at home and 6th on the road in 09-10) and in 2 of the 5 seasons their road ranking was actually higher than their home one. So I don't really see any evidence of their home numbers being inflated to any degree that would invalidate the numbers like you seem to be suggesting.

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by devo22

at this point, I don't even care about letting a year of his ELC slide anymore. The Flames will probably be close to cap floor for a few years, who cares if Monahans ELC is up in 2016 instead of 2017?

Large second contracts are only a problem if the player in question hasn't earned them or can't play up to that level.

Example for the positive: Pat Kane, Jonathan Toews.
Examples for the negative: Tyler Myers, Taylor Hall.

Seeing as how Calgary doesn't have much in the way right now in terms of RFA or UFA contract pressure, I don't see a problem with it either.

[DOOM]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

Large second contracts are only a problem if the player in question hasn't earned them or can't play up to that level.

Example for the positive: Pat Kane, Jonathan Toews.
Examples for the negative: Tyler Myers, Taylor Hall.

Seeing as how Calgary doesn't have much in the way right now in terms of RFA or UFA contract pressure, I don't see a problem with it either.

I think Hall's contract is pretty solid for the Oilers.

[getbak]

Originally Posted by Dagger

It's written poorly but the reasons why it's written are valid. Monahan is supplying points now, but statistics suggest he's going to eventually fall down from this pace....and the question becomes is it worth keeping Monahan up for a whole year to play 10-12 minutes a game with little to no PP time? He's 8th amongst Flames forwards in PP time and he's getting just over 13 mins of ice time with these numbers likely decreasing as Stajan and Cammy come back into the lineup.

As the season has gone on, Hartley has increased the Monahan line's overall ice time and their PP time. Against New Jersey, Monahan-Backlund-Baertschi was the #2 PP unit.

Cammalleri's return shouldn't impact Monahan's 5-on-5 ice time at all since they play different positions, but Hartley might mix up the PP lines. Stajan's return will likely impact Street and Colborne before Monahan.


Ultimately, the questions they need to ask is: "Is Sean Monahan currently one of the Flames organization's top 4 available centres? Will Monahan be one of the organization's top 4 centres when all available players are healthy?"

For me, the answer to both of those questions is, "Yes". As a result, he should stay on merit.


He has not looked out of place in the NHL so far. Except for his first assist, all of his points have been good solid NHL calibre points. The plays he made on his goals against Montreal and New Jersey, and his assist against Montreal were all plays that you expect to see from a very small percentage of NHL veterans.

Might he hit a rough patch at some point this season? Sure, but sending him back to Ottawa isn't going to do anything about helping him work through a rough patch in the NHL. If he gets sent back to the OHL, then all the inevitable NHL growing pains get set back by a year, as well.


Another important factor to keep in mind is that he's developing really good chemistry with Sven right now, and sending Sean back will likely have a negative impact on Sven's game too. They appear to be developing strong chemistry on the ice and a friendship off the ice. They're the only two ELCs on the team, so they're certainly rooming together on the road (veterans get their own rooms on the road in the new CBA). Sven has someone to share the rookie experience with, and they can help each other work through the rough patches down the road.

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by New Era

It is a well known, and long standing joke around the league, that a lot of stats are interpreted differently from arena to arena. That's all that needs to be said on the subject, because everyone in the game knows that certain teams cook the books. No attempt to discredit, the statisticians do it themselves. I am very interested to know how you know shots are meticulously tracked? Unless you are watching every game and are auditing the shot trackers you have no idea how accurate they are. Again, Boston is infamous for pumping up the shots for. Other buildings are generous in the hits department while others hardly give any. It is interpretation of what constitutes a given stat that is sorely lacking and which brings all of these measures into question. But I'm not changing your mind, so we'll leave it at that.

Not to disagree with you, because i dont, but its not teams doing this stuff to "cook the books" but moreso the different people in different cities applying a general rule to varied occurences.......all under the same umbrella knows as NHL off-ice officials.

Shot totals dont vary to wildly around the NHL (last time i was in a discussion about this) because they are pretty much black and white.

That being said, things like hits have no such guidelines and it was never more appaent than a few years back when the Florida Panthers led the league in hitting every single year for a while. What they defined as a "hit" others could (and did) brush off as merely an engagement of two bodies in a battle for a puck (as an example) or positioning in front of the net...things like that. It was amazing what kind of hit totals Fla experienced on the road versus what they were awarded at home.

So yes...most "advanced" stats are no more than "different" stats than traditional ones and are often flawed based on local bias/interpretation.

[Flamefan1]

As a long term Flames fan and season ticket holder I would be very disappointed to see either Baertschi or Monahan sent to the farm team or in Monahan's case the juniors. Sending Stajan, jackman, Colborne and Blair Jones to the minors would have 0 impact to me. Trading Stajan and Jackman would be ideal. I would rather see Horak, Reinhart, and Knight up right now replacing Jackman, Colbourne and Blair Jones.

[edslunch]

Originally Posted by Dagger

It's written poorly but the reasons why it's written are valid. Monahan is supplying points now, but statistics suggest he's going to eventually fall down from this pace....and the question becomes is it worth keeping Monahan up for a whole year to play 10-12 minutes a game with little to no PP time? He's 8th amongst Flames forwards in PP time and he's getting just over 13 mins of ice time with these numbers likely decreasing as Stajan and Cammy come back into the lineup.

He's doing very well, and it's a thrill to have him up so it really comes down to if you think he's better playing 10-12 minutes(with the occasional scratch being a possibility) in the NHL or going back to dominate the AHL, because he isn't going to score at this pace throughout the year which takes away a lot of the "good" that he brings to this team right now.

Of course he isn't going to score at this pace throughout the year - we would win the Calder, Richard and likely Ross trophies if he did . He's also not going to stay at 8th in ice time. For crying out loud the kid has played five games and seems to be adjusting ok. Do you suppose he might just improve his game and take over a bigger role over the year? Not in terms of points of course.

It's fine to predict he will regress point wise - that's a no brainer - but why does that have to mean he regresses play wise? From what I've heard of him I fully expect him to end up >50% on face offs for example.

[Fighting Banana Slug]

As far as the value of advanced stats go, this year's litmus test is likely Toronto (as suggested by DowngoesBrown and many others). Last year and this year (small sample size), TO had terrible possession numbers and "unsustainable" shooting percentages. Unlike the LA and Minnesota examples quoted earlier, I think the Leafs are a real example where the advanced stats don't quite meet the eye test (I think TO is actually pretty decent). I have no dog in this fight, but it will be interesting to see how it shakes out.

[4oh3]

Only reason sean gets sent down is if the head office wants that high pick

[Sylvanfan]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

Seeing as how Calgary doesn't have much in the way right now in terms of RFA or UFA contract pressure, I don't see a problem with it either.

Really, it's hard to envision a scenario where having to give Monahan a second contract in 2016 instead of 2017 squeezes the Flames out of being a cup contender. Realistically most of us expect the team to toil at the depths of the West for this year and next. Eventually if you pick up good young players you have to figure out how to pay them. It's ownership's money, and if they want to spend more this year and have to pay Monahan more a year early, rather than splurge on some overpriced UFA, fine by me. It's probably easier to plan if you don't have 3 big deals coming due the same season.

[Flashpoint]

Can he play for both the World Juniors and the Canadian Olympic team?

Because that's what the Scrote numbers indicate is going to happen with 300% certainty.

[GirlySports]

Would the 31 goals Skinner scored for Carolina in his rookie year be a reasonable expectation for Monahan if he stays all year?

I remember there was discussion in 2010 whether to send Skinner back to junior or not.

http://prohockeytalk.nbcsports.com/2...-jeff-skinner/

Being obnoxiously cap-obsessed, I had to check the Hurricanes’ salary cap situation once Skinner’s deal would expire if he stayed up. The only two contracts that extend past that period are those of Eric Staal and Cam Ward, so they don’t have many other commitments.

I believe the Flames are in the same situation, only 2 contracts extend past the period where Monahan;s entry level contract would expire if they keep him.

[Stay Golden]

that article dulls the senses.

[FlamesAddiction]

It would send a terrible message to the fans and the players if they send down out 2nd leading scorer (at this point), and biggest reason for hope this season.

The only way I see it happening is if he starts to take too much physical punishment.

If he really cools off, then you send him back later in the season even if it means burning a contract year. It's really not the end of the world if that happens. Yeah, it sucks that we "might" have to pay him more sooner than we would like, but it also shows that the team is dedicated to the players success and aren't letting money rule every decision.

[Dagger]

Originally Posted by edslunch

Of course he isn't going to score at this pace throughout the year - we would win the Calder, Richard and likely Ross trophies if he did . He's also not going to stay at 8th in ice time. For crying out loud the kid has played five games and seems to be adjusting ok. Do you suppose he might just improve his game and take over a bigger role over the year? Not in terms of points of course.

It's fine to predict he will regress point wise - that's a no brainer - but why does that have to mean he regresses play wise? From what I've heard of him I fully expect him to end up >50% on face offs for example.

http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index...ain-in-the-nhl

That's a more in depth look at Monahan and his ice time prior to the New Jersey game. I'm just saying that we're all (rightfully) very high on him right now but when he isn't scoring and getting the ice time he is right now with some of our better players(which is likely), then what happens? If you think it's better for his development to play limited minutes in the NHL then OK that's your opinion and some might think he's better refining a few more things in the OHL. It's a matter of preference, but people shouldn't be butt hurt about metrics that NHL teams are paying increasing attention to because they are generally very accurate. Wasn't long ago that using Fenwick suggested a Minnesota team that was first place in the West at the December was likely to miss the playoffs whilst the then out of the playoffs LA Kings were an elite team that was getting ridiculously unlucky....and they strolled to the Stanley Cup as their luck regressed to the mean throughout the season and in the playoffs.

[East Coast Flame]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

I believe the Flames are in the same situation, only 2 contracts extend past the period where Monahan;s entry level contract would expire if they keep him.

Giordano, Hudler and Jones all would expire the same year as Monahan. Widemans would expire the next year.

I am for sending him down. I just think the short term benefits do not outweigh the potential long term gain. The ultimate goal is winning the cup. Use these first contracts to build the team around him.

[thefoss1957]

I always thought that among the Puck Daddy jokers, Lambert was a Flames fan...that said, I feel his main point is that, despite the good start, blowing a year of Monahan's Entry Level Contract might not be the best for either the team, or him, this season. A valid point to argue...

[Street Pharmacist]

Can someone clearly explain how one year of entry contract makes a lick of difference to a non cap team? Will we suddenly be in call trouble in three years? I'd fire the whole management if that's the case.

[mykalberta]

I like it when baseball dorks try to extrapolate the stats from their individual sport and relate it to an actual team sport. Its really funny.