Ryan Lambert article on sending Monahan down

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by DropIt

Corsi..

as of right now the Edmonton Oilers are among the best teams in the league in Corsi while the Maple Leafs are the leagues worst.

Tough to stand behind that advanced set of stats

No, they're both bad at 21st and 24th respectively:

http://www.extraskater.com/teams/2013/


Why would you be surprised that Toronto has poor shot attempt numbers when they've been outscored 11-9 at 5-on-5? It's not like they've been a great ES team this year; they've just had really good special teams so far.

[djsFlames]

I do predict Monahan's torrid production pace to continue for the first 10 games or so, as October hockey allows for a little more offense (and in turn, more defensive gaffes) than usual. I predicted 12pts through 10 (and I'm talking game 10 because he's here for 82). Some time in November though that line will probably get shut down over a few games as they'll run into some teams with a good defensive game going, as team systems start to really take form. And they'll (Sven and Monahan) likely have their first real bump in the road, where it'll take them a while to get their offensive legs back, although hopefully by that point our injured guys are coming back. And that'll happen several more times over the course of the season. And then there's potential injuries to consider and whatnot. It's not going to be smooth sailing the whole way through, I think fans are pretty aware of that. But of course, snobs have to point things out and be the 'voice of reason' when fans are just trying to enjoy and celebrate what we have going on now. Pretty typical.

[PeteMoss]

Hockey (and Football for that matter) advanced stats movement is still stuck on the 'we're smarter than you' stage.

Baseball went through a similar phase in the Moneyball days. Then that infamous A's draft/prospect class discussed in the book was a huge bust and they realized that the old school ways have a place and the stats are just a piece of the puzzle and those 'dumb' scouts help too.

Once they can get beyond the straw-men arguments (no one things Monahan is going to score to 100 points or that the Flames are going to be contenders this year after 5 games) and add to the discussion instead of trying to prove how smart they are.. they'll reach the respect level they want.

[transplant99]

I dont know who ryan lambert is nor this corsi guy that keeps being brought up as a comparison for Monohans abilities.

I do know that after actually watching the games and ignoring all the advanced stats that in the end mean sweet coitus all whether a player can play or not....Sean Monohan is a tremendous hockey player and the Flames have found a cornerstone.

I am left wondering however, if advanced stat freaks can attain any enjoyment out of actually just sitting back and watching hockey games. My guess is ...not a chance.

[Heavy Jack]

Literally felt my HQ lower a good 50 points when I went to his twitter....IQ, sorry that's IQ. Some affects are lingering, wow.

[edslunch]

Originally Posted by Tinordi

Actually advanced stats would start revealing which players had higher hockey IQs by demonstrating which players are controlling possession and creating scoring chances.

Again because goals are so rare and so dependent on luck you could easily overlook "unlucky" players and conclude that they had low hockey IQs because they weren't getting "results." Where there would be much more probably explanations such as the coach relying on that player with high hockey IQ to start in his own zone more, to cover for a linemate that was especially bad at possession, to play against the best forwards or simply because his linemates or his goalie weren't cutting the mustard.

This is why I'm continually bewildered by the almost unanimous dismal of basically a whole new set of tools removed of bias to evaluate the game. This helps fans, it doesn't hurt them only insofar as they're so mentally rigid or mindless followers of their own personal orthodoxies that they see stats as a threat to their preferred story of players and teams.

I think the reason is how they are presented. The average fan is being asked to forget what they see and feel but pay attention to the stats instead. And the status gurus, like many pioneers, unintentionally come across as religious converts out to save the masses. I think a better approach would to pick a stat like CORSI and try to ease it into the average fans' vocabulary to up the level of discourse rather than try to explain everything via stats. At the end of the day stats are just another tool

[dammage79]

This blogger and Bruce Dowbiggin are both in the department of calling the Flames stupid.

Dowbiggin saying it's poor asset management and sheer stupidity keep Monahan up this year because of the whole contract crap. And this Yahoo languidly tossing around advanced stats on a small sample base saying the same thing.

These twits will always be lurking in the weeds chucking insults regardless of what's happening.

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by edslunch

Advanced stats are interesting and I'm willing to believe there's something to them. But the advanced stats crowd seems to always ignore the other side of the equation, which is results. Monahan is getting results, regardless of his advanced stats. His shooting percentage may be high but that's going to happen when you put yourself in a position to redirect a pass into a wide open net.

A while back they were touting Backlund as the best Flame based on advanced stats which is great, but he wasn't scoring at all so the great stats resulted in nothing. Maybe they predicted great things to come like we're starting to see - like I said they are not totally meaningless - it just kills me when these guys only focus on the stats and discount the 'counting numbers'. News flash, the counting numbers count.

Advanced stats should never be used to supercede visual judgements.

Monahan and his line are driving the play when they are on the ice. It's as simple as that.

Whether Monahan is going against Henrik Sedin or Mike Santorelli doesn't matter. Driving the play, scoring GWGs and not looking out of place during your first 5 nhl games is what matters.

There is zero motivation to send Monahan back right now from a Calgary perspective. All he does is give them more options in the trade market and to be competitive during the course of the season.

Dumb article. I don't have advanced stats on Lambert or what his bias is, but, from a visual standpoint of reading the article, he's out to lunch/off the deep end.

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by edslunch

I get that, and I find the stats around quality of competition and the like quite compelling. But I equally believe that if you focus too heavily on stats you miss the fact that players have different levels of skill and hockey IQ - something that gets sloughed off as 'making their own luck'. Otherwise you'd have to believe that every player has the same average chance to score on the average shot and that all shot opportunities are equal, something that is patently false.

It has been pretty well established that the biggest difference between high and low scorers over a large sample is generally a disparity in shot volume rather than shooting percentage. Top players can generate more shots and more chances and thus generate more offense.

That's not to say that there aren't certainly differences in on-ice shooting %, but volume is the biggest factor. Glencross and Stamkos can have the same shooting percentage, but Stamkos generates twice as many shots per game. And a guy like Ovechkin can have a lower career shooting percentage than Matt Stajan, but because he can generate 5 shots a game he's one of the best goal scorers of this era.


That said, any analysis that uses QoC numbers 4-5 games into the season is immediately and unquestionably worthless. QoC numbers are regenerated every year (i.e. the quality of a player is based on only this year's data), so it's a horribly inaccurate indicator of the type of opponents a player is facing.

[Badgers Nose]

I am on the fence about sending him down. Flames are better with him up, but getting to dominate in junior and win a gold medal with Canada at the WJHC would be cool too. That will certainly help his development.

I'll be happy either way. If he goes down, then a kid from Abby comes up.

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by Badgers Nose

I am on the fence about sending him down. Flames are better with him up, but getting to dominate in junior and win a gold medal with Canada at the WJHC would be cool too. That will certainly help his development.

I'll be happy either way. If he goes down, then a kid from Abby comes up.

He can still go to the WJC without going back to a poor Ottawa team though.

Keep him up. he is one of the rare young guys that will learn more playing sheltered minutes in the NHL than dominating weaker opponents in junior IMO.

[MrMastodonFarm]

Originally Posted by opendoor

That said, any analysis that uses QoC numbers 4-5 games into the season is immediately and unquestionably worthless. QoC numbers are regenerated every year (i.e. the quality of a player is based on only this year's data), so it's a horribly inaccurate indicator of the type of opponents a player is facing.

Just to add to this and perhaps put an exclamation on what a poorly written and researched article this is, it appears Lambert is using behindthenet.com for his stats. At the time if the article they only had stats for the first three games (now updated to 4), not all five.

Just real amateur stuff from Ryan Lambert this morning.

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

Advanced stats should never be used to supercede visual judgements.

That depends on the skill of the observer. Most people will be heavily influenced by the results even if they're just trying to evaluate the process, and this applies in any field.

Though I do agree that stats over a 5 game sample shouldn't be used to judge much of anything either positive or negative. If Monahan doesn't look out of place (which he doesn't) and they're fine burning a year of his deal then he should probably stay.

[FlameZilla]

The guy has made the easiest call in the World (Monahan's production will slow down) & is shouting it from the mountains like he's cured cancer. Using advanced stats to back it up leads me to believe he's not actually watched any of the Flames games. More the fool he.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Badgers Nose

I am on the fence about sending him down. Flames are better with him up, but getting to dominate in junior and win a gold medal with Canada at the WJHC would be cool too. That will certainly help his development...

There is nothing "certain" about how an experience at the WJC will affect Monahan's development one way or the other. In actual fact, I suspect it would probably prove to be negligible in the long run. We do know that there are literally dozens of NHL prospects who participate in this tournament every year, and it makes no perceptible difference for those who never play more than a handful of NHL games.

Monahan has pretty clearly demonstrated that he can keep up and contribute at the NHL level. He has more importantly shown that he can make in game adjustments, and is already showing some small signs of progression. If he can develop at this level, then there really is no good reason to send him back to Ottawa.

[Tinordi]

A guide to advanced stats:

http://canucksarmy.com/2013/10/10/a-...d-hockey-stats

I almost posted this as a thread the other day but think it has a good place here. Pretty much discusses what advanced stats are and how they're used.

A good article in all and describes why they're so compelling.

[868904]

I think the whole contract thing is stupid.

The decision should be based on what's best for his development. He's clearly learning and improving in the NHL. You see him make one mistake and the next time that situation arises, he doesn't make the same mistake again. That's maturity, and based on maturity alone, he should be in the NHL.

Sides, it's better to stagger the expiry of your star player contracts. You don't want them all expiring in the same year. Sven is in his 2nd pro season, so he'll come up one year before Monahan. Next year, Gaudreau (assuming Flames season ends before Gaudreau's, which is very likely) and Reinhart/Ekblad will be in the first pro year and if you push Monahan into that year too, you'll be in hell trying to negotiate the 2nd year for 3 of your top players.

Contract wise, it makes sense to burn Monahan's first year right now.

[WilderPegasus]

Originally Posted by Savvy27

As for the argument that a year of his ELC is being burned, aren't the Oilers the only team that is actually handing out huge second contracts these days? I know the Flames did it with Phaneuf, but it seems like the GMs of the league have figured out that they do, in fact, have leverage and can keep things reasonable until they start to eat into UFA years.

Other teams have done it for really good players that have accomplished something - LA with Doughty, Ottawa with Karlsson, Boston with Seguin, Islanders with Tavares, Buffalo with Myers, Carolina with Skinner.

Nothing like the Oilers did with RNH who had barely played 100 games before he got the big contract.

[GirlySports]

The Flames can afford that extra year. And if Monahan becomes a star they just keep resigning him like they did Iginla. He'll never be a free agent at any age.

[FlameZilla]

The Flames lineup is set up for Monahan to be sent down. In fact, it doesn't look great for Baertschi at this point either. Once Cammalleri, Jones & Stajan are healthy the forwards lineup could look somewhat like this:

Cammalleri Stajan Stempniak
Glencross Backlund Hudler
Galiardi Colborne Jones
Bouma Street McGrattan

With so many youngsters on the Heat pushing to get the call-up, and the team having just given up a 4th rounder for Colborne, I think sending Monahan down is way too easy an option for management. Bouma sure doesn't deserve to be sent down. Argh, so frustrating!