Rumor Philadelphia interested in Glencross

[DOOM]

Originally Posted by moon

That roughly 80% of the drafted players will bust. That doesn't mean they are busts now.

People can think that prospects won't work out without thinking they are busts right now.

Sure, but what's the point of guessing which prospects will bust when you don't know how they will develop.

Seems like you consider anyone drafted outside the top 40ish picks a automatic bust.

Lets just trade away all our late 2nds, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th and 7th round picks.

[moon]

Originally Posted by DOOM

Sure, but what's the point of guessing which prospects will bust when you don't know how they will develop.

Seems like you consider anyone drafted outside the top 40ish picks a automatic bust.

Lets just trade away all our late 2nds, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th and 7th round picks.

The point is to predict how the team will look in the future and what moves the Flames may or may not need to make going forward.

Not sure where you get that I think anyone drafted outside of the top 20 will bust.

I will gladly move out veterans to pick up more picks and would expect them to be outside the top 20. But if we can move a 7th rounder for a useful player that works as well.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Iggy Snipe

Hopefully we ship him out. He is as lazy as I have ever seen him. Thinks he is a star or something. Not a fan of him.

Please stay on topic - this thread is about Jankowski

[Plett25]

I think this was drawn in anticipation of this thread....

[Mr.Coffee]

I actually think trading Glencross would be a decent idea because he's got such a great contract, you could get a lot of value for a guy that's heart doesn't seem totally into it here.

The big problem of course being his NTC.

[Mr.Coffee]

Oh ya and as to the...topic... at.... hand?

The reality is that saying Jankowski is a bust a little over 1 year of his draft is premature. Players get better, get worse, get hot, get cold, get bigger, fill out, get faster, workout more, practice more, etc. etc.

It's a ridiculous assertion to state "one day this guy will bust" well ya, like when? Like when he's 28, after 6 or 7 NHL seasons? What if he turns it on when nobody expects it?

Look at Tomas Hertl tonight. Hat-trick. Whoops, scratch that, just checked... 4 goal game. Who in the hell was talking about him before pre-season? What about Drouin? This sure fire kid, who was extremely touted, has been sent down while meanwhile other kids look to be- right now- better picks. Is that true? Who knows? Maybe not in the long run.

But to run around and make the assertion that Jankowski's a bust at this stage of the game is totally premature. Maybe if he was like 22-23 years old, but at 19? Ummmm no. He can still develop into a quality centre if he works hard at it.

If you could realistically predict these things with accuracy, moon, you'd be a gajillionaire because of your infinite predictive capabilities and you should head straight into sports gambling as a career.

[EYE_Overstand]

if he waives his NTC... and we get the right deal... then i say we trade glencross. after trading glencross i would immediatly extend stempy to match the term (not money) of hudler.

having stempy and hudler as part of the rebuild is a good idea for many reasons people have pointed here.

[Cali Panthers Fan]

bahahaha...this thread is gold. You have all been mooned.

Spoiler!

[MolsonInBothHands]

I can't believe I am about to stick up for moon... There is a difference between saying a player is already a bust and predicting a player will become a bust.

Yup he was touted as a project. To me that implies a much less certain future. Given Calgary 's history of developing first round picks, I could also see one being skeptical of Janks hitting his touted ceiling.

There is a difference in what moon has said, many aren't hearing it because it is moon.

I will enjoy watching Jank' s development unfold because I think this is the pick that Feaster haters are anxious to sink their teeth into.

As for Glencross, I am indifferent. I hope he can shake the notion of being a pouter , and I hope he can provide some valuable leadership, but I am not seeing it right now. I would like to see a legit top 4 D come back if he is moved, but draft picks would be fun too.

[flambers]

Originally Posted by MolsonInBothHands

I can't believe I am about to stick up for moon... There is a difference between saying a player is already a bust and predicting a player will become a bust.

Yup he was touted as a project. To me that implies a much less certain future. Given Calgary 's history of developing first round picks, I could also see one being skeptical of Janks hitting his touted ceiling.

There is a difference in what moon has said, many aren't hearing it because it is moon.

I will enjoy watching Jank' s development unfold because I think this is the pick that Feaster haters are anxious to sink their teeth into.

.

Not sure... when you look at the line up. Flames have Backlund, Monahan and Baertschi all of them are former first round picks. They all look to have decent potential.

Flames also have Bouma and TJ Brodie (looks like a top 4 dman) who are drafted players.

Mark Giordano is a player who was developed thru the Flames Pro System and is their top dman.

Flames drafting record is improving.... not many years ago there would be 1 maybe 2 players that were drafted in the lineup

As for Jank's, when he was drafted it was always stated he is a long term project. Its really hard to tell if it will turn out.

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by DOOM

It is goofy. Why not just wait and see how a prospect develops. There is no need to call players a bust before they have even signed a pro contract.

We might as well trade all our late rounds pick because they are going to be busts, right?

This exposes the fundamental and unresolvable division in this board: between those who express what they hope will happen, and those who express what is likely to happen.

[MrMastodonFarm]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

This exposes the fundamental and unresolvable division in this board: between those who express what they hope will happen, and those who express what is likely to happen.

Oh please.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by flambers

Not sure... when you look at the line up. Flames have Backlund, Monahan and Baertschi all of them are former first round picks. They all look to have decent potential.

Flames also have Bouma and TJ Brodie (looks like a top 4 dman) who are drafted players.

Mark Giordano is a player who was developed thru the Flames Pro System and is their top dman.

Flames drafting record is improving.... not many years ago there would be 1 maybe 2 players that were drafted in the lineup

As for Jank's, when he was drafted it was always stated he is a long term project. Its really hard to tell if it will turn out.

Even the Flames dark days of drafting are not as bad as people think. Kobasew and Lombardi were both developed by the Flames. Both had their careers derailed by injuries, but otherwise had established themselves as solid top 6 guys. That's above average for mid-round picks. The Flames also drafted/developed Phaneuf, Nystrom, Giordano, Brodie, Erixon, Aulie, Pardy, Prust, Moss, etc..

The issue with the Flames is not with development. The Flames simply have not had that many top first round picks. They also had a management team that was stuck in a pre-lockout mentality. They would puposely choose big bodies over skill. So the issue wasn't that we weren't properly developing players. The issue was there just wasn't that much talent there to begin with.

[AltaGuy]

Most apt comparison to Jankowski to me (and best-case scenario likely) is that he follows a development path similar to Turris. Obviously Turris was more highly regarded, and has more skill, but Turris was drafted out of junior A (better than high school, but whatever), and was definitely not physically developed at the time of his draft.

However, both have high-end skill; and several years after Turris was labelled a bust, he became a very useful player for the Sens - after being traded for relative peanuts by the Yotes. It was basically five years until Turris became a decent NHLer. Jankowski is likely still three or four years out, but maybe he develops in a similar fashion.

And, uh, Glencross. Probably not getting traded in my opinion.

[blankall]

I'm confused about what the reasoning for Jankowski being a bust is? He just turned 19 a couple of weeks ago. He, by all accounts, had a decent college year despite playing in a restricted role. Jankowski was also one of the youngest players in the NCAA and bipassed Juniors.

People also need to remember that it wasn't just Jankowski that was drafted with that pick. The Flames traded down and acquired an additional 2nd round pick, which they used to acquire Sieloff.

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by blankall

Even the Flames dark days of drafting are not as bad as people think. Kobasew and Lombardi were both developed by the Flames. Both had their careers derailed by injuries, but otherwise had established themselves as solid top 6 guys. That's above average for mid-round picks. The Flames also drafted/developed Phaneuf, Nystrom, Giordano, Brodie, Erixon, Aulie, Pardy, Prust, Moss, etc..

I think you just indirectly proved the opposite point you were trying to make. Those guys listed are the only guys developed by the franchise, and essentially all of them except Phaneuf (top 10 pick), Giordano and Brodie are plugs. Lombo I'll give you injuries, but Kobasew has been a plug his whole career. A likeable plug, but a 'dime a dozen' forward in the NHL, and besides free agent signing Giordano (who I credit with his own success, not the organization), he's likely the second best player produced by the Flames other than Phaneuf in the last 15 years.

The Dark Days were just as bad as most remember them. 7 Years without playoffs, nothing to show for it from the draft.

That's about as ugly as you can get.

[DOOM]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

This exposes the fundamental and unresolvable division in this board: between those who express what they hope will happen, and those who express what is likely to happen.

Yes, by the odds most players taken outside the top 2 rounds wont have an NHL career.

However, when people say a prospect is likely to bust/wont have an NHL career and play it off like fact is what's most annoying.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

I think you just indirectly proved the opposite point you were trying to make. Those guys listed are the only guys developed by the franchise, and essentially all of them except Phaneuf (top 10 pick), Giordano and Brodie are plugs. Lombo I'll give you injuries, but Kobasew has been a plug his whole career. A likeable plug, but a 'dime a dozen' forward in the NHL, and besides free agent signing Giordano (who I credit with his own success, not the organization), he's likely the second best player produced by the Flames other than Phaneuf in the last 15 years.

The Dark Days were just as bad as most remember them. 7 Years without playoffs, nothing to show for it from the draft.

That's about as ugly as you can get.

If you look at the probability of success of draft picks chosen 20 or later, the Flames actually do quite well. The flames certainly had an issue with asset management. They traded away too many picks, young players, etc... The drafting also had the wrong focus. However, development was not the issue.

[Dagger]

Originally Posted by blankall

If you look at the probability of success of draft picks chosen 20 or later, the Flames actually do quite well. The flames certainly had an issue with asset management. They traded away too many picks, young players, etc... The drafting also had the wrong focus. However, development was not the issue.

Do you have the figures on that? And what makes you say player development wasn't a problem? I count Brodie, Moss, Leopold, Phaneuf, Prust, Nystrom, Lombardi and Backlund as players that the Flames have drafted or acquired as a prospect(Leopold) that have become established NHLers since 2001. Nystrom was a bust for his top 10 status, and Phaneuf was found in a draft you couldn't miss in. Moss, Brodie and Lombardi were good finds and properly developed...but that's it.

I'd argue that Giordano's development isn't completely Calgary's to take credit for. He was a great signing for an undrafted free agent as he took himself all the way to fringe NHL player level...but it was only after he went to Russia because he wouldn't accept a 2 way deal(which we can say is how the Flames valued him at the time) that he really took off. What happens if he doesn't go to Russia? To me it comes down to this: does he reach his(now known) potential staying with the Flames his whole career? I say no, and player development by definition is about squeezing every ounce of productivity out of a player and the Flames had tapped some but not all and therefore do not deserve full credit.

[strombad]

Originally Posted by DOOM

Yes, by the odds most players taken outside the top 2 rounds wont have an NHL career.

However, when people say a prospect is likely to bust/wont have an NHL career and play it off like fact is what's most annoying.

Well it IS likely. It may be annoying to you, but fact of the matter is we all HOPE Janko becomes a first line center, but the most LIKELY scenario is that he never amounts to anything. He was a late 1st round pick, predicted to be mid-late second round, in an average draft where even the players that were supposed to be selected around that time are probably multi-year projects, let alone going off the board.
Fact: Janko could develop into a #1 center
Fact: Janko most likely won't become anything close to what he was projected as (bust)
It's not up for debate whether or not it's a fact, it is. If moon thinks he is going to bust, no question, then he is simply playing the overwhelming odds. Plenty of scouts and people involved in player personnel believe Janko is more likely to be a big time bust, but they all admit his ceiling is high. You can have both. The Flames took a big risk that could have a big payoff, anyone could tell you that, but the reason it's a risk is that he likely won't amount to anything substantial.
I still think he will make some waves, personally. Would I have rather us use our original pick? Based on hindsight and seeing the players picked after our original pick, yeah, I would've. But Janko COULD make it, and we got Seiloff, which is a huge bonus.