The Free Syrian Army - More a loosely linked umbrella organization than a cohesive fighting force with a hierarchical chain of command, the organization welcomes everyone.... Syrian-based commanders remain disobedient, illustrating the tenuous influence of exiled FSA leaders. These officers, located in Jordan and Turkey, are nationalists who emphasize respecting the rights of all Syrians.
Moderate Islamist Groups - identify with the ideology of the Muslim Brotherhood. These groups aspire to replace the secular canon with Islamic law, curtail individual freedoms, and subordinate minorities. They have coalesced around the Syrian Islamic Liberation Front (SILF), a 19-faction alliance established in September 2012
Salafists - puritanical Muslims who seek to return the Islamic community to the first three generations following its birth.... Eleven Salafist groups joined forces in December 2012 to create the Syrian Islamic Front (SIF).
Jihadists - Though jihadists associated with al-Qaeda were latecomers, they are now the most powerful groups on the battlefield. Jabhat al-Nusra was created in January 2012. The group was composed of Syrians who fought in Iraq while it was under American rule. Jabhat al-Nusra pioneered the use of suicide bombing, targeting both civilian and military targets.... American intelligence organizations believe there are more than 6,000 foreign jihadists, including Westerners, in Syria. They have killed Alawi civilians, kidnapped Westerners and attacked other brigades.
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Who are the Syrian rebels? Story
The Free Syrian Army - More a loosely linked umbrella organization than a cohesive fighting force with a hierarchical chain of command, the organization welcomes everyone.... Syrian-based commanders remain disobedient, illustrating the tenuous influence of exiled FSA leaders. These officers, located in Jordan and Turkey, are nationalists who emphasize respecting the rights of all Syrians.
"Remain disobedient" is kind of an odd way of putting it, as if the SMC was some kind of a legitimate governing organization.
I would say "are not always cooperating with each other".
The SMC includes all of Syria’s most important opposition field commanders, and its authority is based on the power and influence of these rebel leaders. Its legitimacy is derived from the bottom-up, rather than top-down, and it has no institutional legitimacy apart from the legitimacy of the commanders associated with the council. Thus, the SMC is not structurally cohesive, and its ability to enforce command and control is dependent on the cooperation of each of its members.
This is also a good quote;
Quote:
If the SMC can create enough incentives for moderation it will likely be able to marginalize the most radical elements within its structure. To this end, the SMC has recognized the importance of the inclusion of some of the more radical forces, while still drawing a red line at the inclusion of forces that seek the destruction of a Syrian state, such as jihadist groups like Jabhat Nusra.
EDIT:
I think this is an important point from the story you linked.
Quote:
Washington has provided nonlethal aid, but promised weapons have not materialized. The FSA is active in every Syrian province and reportedly has 80,000 men under Idriss' control. Nevertheless, the FSA is plagued by a high level of attrition. Fighters seeking a more cohesive structure and stronger ideology desert to Islamist units. Others leave for better-funded brigades.
This is why I support supporting the FSA, as the least of evils.
@SaraAssaf: CNN: German spy ship in Med sea intercepted communication showing Syrian military asked Assad to use CW many times but he refused. (1/2)
@SaraAssaf: CNN: Thus German spy-ship intel seems to confirm regime forces used CW but "possibly by Maher without knowledge of Bashar Assad." (2/2)
@MahirZeynalov: RT @Reuters: Syria FM: Syria welcomes Russia's proposal for Damascus to put its chemical weapons under international control
@NMSyria: Worth mentioning that of the 120,000 + Syrians killed, only 1500 were killed with these chemical weapons that Syria plans to hand over.
--->. Russia pulls out the Trump card right before US Congress votes. This news could kill the vote and prevent strikes. Essentially Russia outmanoeuvres the US and gets to keep the chaos on Syria (ie money flowing).
@SaraAssaf: CNN: German spy ship in Med sea intercepted communication showing Syrian military asked Assad to use CW many times but he refused. (1/2)
@SaraAssaf: CNN: Thus German spy-ship intel seems to confirm regime forces used CW but "possibly by Maher without knowledge of Bashar Assad." (2/2)
@MahirZeynalov: RT @Reuters: Syria FM: Syria welcomes Russia's proposal for Damascus to put its chemical weapons under international control
@NMSyria: Worth mentioning that of the 120,000 + Syrians killed, only 1500 were killed with these chemical weapons that Syria plans to hand over.
--->. Russia pulls out the Trump card right before US Congress votes. This news could kill the vote and prevent strikes. Essentially Russia outmanoeuvres the US and gets to keep the chaos on Syria (ie money flowing).
This could be a pretty big positive actually.
At this point it's looking like Syria is quickly spiraling into being a failed state. Having those weapons out of anybody's hands could be a best case scenario. Although I can't see Assad truthfully giving up his entire store of weapons.
At this point it's looking like Syria is quickly spiraling into being a failed state. Having those weapons out of anybody's hands could be a best case scenario. Although I can't see Assad truthfully giving up his entire store of weapons.
Agreed. Hopefully it follows with a UN force to try and forge peace here, but that is doubtful.
At this point it's looking like Syria is quickly spiraling into being a failed state. Having those weapons out of anybody's hands could be a best case scenario. Although I can't see Assad truthfully giving up his entire store of weapons.
I don't know if I see it as a positive as much as a meh.
Bottom line is that I don't trust the Syrian's to give up the chemical weapons nor the russians to do anything but stall on it. Besides does chemical weapons also include the factories that are still active and can brew this stuff up. Does it also include things like Napalm?
Syria used this terror weapon, they've shown a willingness to slaughter in the 100's of thousands, they'll just use other weapons at their disposal supplied by Russia.
The suspicious mind in me says that they're merely going to trade the chemical weapons to Russia in exchange for access to other Russian made weapons.
I don't buy the without Asaad's knowledge argument, spy ships don't pick up person to person orders, nor secured communications or hardened communications. And since Asaad didn't shoot anyone or throw them on trial for using these weapons which would be a sop to the international community, I have my doubts.
At the end of the day the west has been completely out outmaneuved by the Russians. The UN has been significantly weakened. The mass killing is probably going to pick up even more as Syria knows that they can do whatever they want to quell the rebellion.
I don't see a diplomatic solution.
Something like 1/3rd of Syria's population has fled as refugees to surrounding countries that are going to bear significant economic costs.
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My name is Ozymandias, King of Kings;
Agreed. Hopefully it follows with a UN force to try and forge peace here, but that is doubtful.
Not going to happen. I would also be seriously oppossed to lending Canadian Troops to the UN without a aggressive ROE that allows for the use of properly armed troops to protect themselves and civilians.
None of this bravely standing by with pistols and light jeeps and being able to do nothing.
Give them tanks, APC's, heavy antitanks weapons. Naval support and fighter bombers and attack helicopters and then really enforce the peace.
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My name is Ozymandias, King of Kings;
The United States would spend trillions of dollars, while the U.S.-led coalition forces lost over 4,800 troops. There were also over 100,000 Iraqi fatalities since the first bombs dropped on Baghdad, including 66,000 civilians, to say nothing of the horrors of Abu Ghraib and life-altering injuries suffered by soldiers and civilians alike. And although the U.S is withdrawing its troops, the country remains far from stable.
But Hitchens, who leant his intellectual heft to the Bush administration's rush to war, never apologized for his staunch advocacy, saying it was justified because of a single death that resulted from the invasion: that of Saddam Hussein. Late last year, Hitchens could be found still defending his pro-war stance, telling the BBC that he "couldn't support any policy that involved the continuation of Saddam Hussein in power -- the private ownership of Iraq, in other words, by him and his crime family."
the feisty journalist wasn't about to satisfy Iraq War critics, some of whom harshly criticized him in the lead-up to the war, by admitting he may have been wrong in any way. While Hitchens acknowledged the costs in blood and treasure -- and bungled post-war plans -- he maintained that military action had been the right step to take because it removed Hussein from power.
Invading Iraq, he argued, was justified for historical reasons stretching well before the Sept. 11 attacks or the election of George W. Bush. Hitchens considered Hussein a brutal dictator, which he was, and argued that the U.S. -- which helped push Hussein out of Kuwait in 1991 and still maintained a no-fly-zone to protect the Kurds in the North and Shia in South -- had never been fully removed from conflict with Iraq. So the invasion, in his view, was not preemptive, and the "short" war to remove Hussein was essentially the continuation of an ongoing struggle. Indeed, he subtitled the 2003 book, "The Postponed Liberation of Iraq."
I don't know if I see it as a positive as much as a meh.
Bottom line is that I don't trust the Syrian's to give up the chemical weapons nor the russians to do anything but stall on it. Besides does chemical weapons also include the factories that are still active and can brew this stuff up. Does it also include things like Napalm?
Syria used this terror weapon, they've shown a willingness to slaughter in the 100's of thousands, they'll just use other weapons at their disposal supplied by Russia.
The suspicious mind in me says that they're merely going to trade the chemical weapons to Russia in exchange for access to other Russian made weapons.
I don't buy the without Asaad's knowledge argument, spy ships don't pick up person to person orders, nor secured communications or hardened communications. And since Asaad didn't shoot anyone or throw them on trial for using these weapons which would be a sop to the international community, I have my doubts.
At the end of the day the west has been completely out outmaneuved by the Russians. The UN has been significantly weakened. The mass killing is probably going to pick up even more as Syria knows that they can do whatever they want to quell the rebellion.
I don't see a diplomatic solution.
Something like 1/3rd of Syria's population has fled as refugees to surrounding countries that are going to bear significant economic costs.
I agree. There's nothing really positive about this situation. I think regardless of the outcome it's going to be bad for the Syrians.
I think you're underestimating the potential chaos of these chemical weapons. The last attack, which purportedly killed about 1200, was a small fraction of the destructive power of these weapons.
As bleak as it sounds, the regime killing people by the hundreds may be the best outcome here. It's better than kiling people by the thousands.
And I don't think it's a question of being outmaneuvered by the Russians, as much as it is of being brazenly told to get lost. The Russians have always had total political and economic control of Syria, and that's not a secret. All they've done from day 1 is come up with different ways to tell the US to mind their business.
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One has to wonder if this was Obama's plan all along, rattle some sabers to force a change in Russian and Chinese intransigence on chemical weapons. Hopefully this isn't just another Assad stalling tactic.
The evidence examined by Human Rights Watch strongly
suggests that the August 21 chemical weapon attacks on Eastern and Western
Ghouta were carried out by government forces. Our basis for this finding is:
The large-scale nature of the attacks, involving at least
a dozen surface-to-surface rockets affecting two different neighborhoods
in Damascus countryside situated 16 kilometers apart, and surrounded by
major Syrian government military positions.
One of the types of rockets used in the attack, the 330mm
rocket system – likely Syrian produced, which appear to be have been
used in a number of alleged chemical weapon attacks, has been filmed in at
least two instances in the hands of government forces. The second type of
rocket, the Soviet-produced 140mm rocket, which can carry Sarin, is listed
as a weapon known to be in Syrian government weapon stocks. Both rockets
have never been reported to be in the possession of the opposition. Nor is
there any footage or other evidence that the armed opposition has the
vehicle-mounted launchers needed to fire these rockets
The August 21 attacks were a sophisticated military
attack, requiring large amounts of nerve agent (each 330mm warhead is
estimated to contain between 50 and 60 liters of agent), specialized
procedures to load the warheads with the nerve agent, and specialized
launchers to launch the rockets.
Well, the evidence is starting to pile that is was indeed Assads regime. Best of the bad options I guess.
It also served the purpose that much more information on the situation in Syria flowed out. It seems the reports of Assad having the upper hand were greatly exaggerated. Which is good too, if you ask me; best of the options.
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It was always going to be the al-Assad regime. I simply could not see how it could have been anyone else.
Now the big question is if/when the regime allows UN inspectors access to their production and storage facilities and places their proscribed CW program under the direct supervision of the OPCW, what happens to the people who were responsible for this war crime? It is not good enough to just have the regime's weapons or "tools" taken away, although it is satisfying to hear. Something has to happen to the people who ordered this attack.
Personally I'd love to see the persons responsible tried in the ICC. Use of these weapons is expressly prohibited in the Rome Statute of the ICC:
Article 8 - 2b:
(xvii) Employing poison or poisoned weapons;
(xviii) Employing asphyxiating, poisonous or other gases, and all analogous liquids, materials or devices;
(xx) Employing weapons, projectiles and material and methods of warfare which are of a nature to cause superfluous injury or unnecessary suffering or which are inherently indiscriminate in violation of the international law of armed conflict, provided that such weapons, projectiles and material and methods of warfare are the subject of a comprehensive prohibition and are included in an annex to this Statute, by an amendment in accordance with the relevant provisions set forth in articles 121 and 123;
Hopefully the Syrans take all the "made in Russia" stickers off any warheads they will allow the inspectors to find.
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Rudy was the only hope in 08
2011 Election: Cons 40% - Nanos 38% Ekos 34%
