Chemical Weapon used in Syria, Western military response likely

[Senator Clay Davis]

Secretary of State John Kerry left no doubt Monday that the United States believes Syria’s Bashar Assad used chemical weapons to slaughter civilians last week and vowed that the United States will respond to that “moral obscenity.”

“Anyone who can claim that an attack of this staggering scale could be contrived or fabricated needs to check their conscience and their own moral compass,” he said, in a barb likely meant for Syria and its patron Russia. “What is before us today is real and it is compelling.”

Kerry, speaking to reporters at the State Department, described the attack in very personal terms, describing how he had watched the “gut-wrenching” videos of the dead and dying via social media. But he gave no details about when a decision on whether to use force in response to last week’s massacre might come — or whether it would.

http://news.yahoo.com/kerry--u-s--wi...193453624.html

[CaptainCrunch]

[mikey_the_redneck]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

Can you tell me what possible end the Rebels have in bombing out Children and framing the government. They don't want any part of boots on the ground by Western nations or Arab states that are not only going to topple Asaad and impose their own government that might be equally unfriendly to elements of the rebel groups.

You could argue that it will just make more people flood to the Rebels due to a frame up. But its a step that wasn't needed because of the heavy handedness of the government anyways in terms of killing their own civilians.

You fail to understand how the leaders of these Middle Eastern States operate. They believe strongly in maximum punitive measures to cow the rebeling elements and they make it clear that if you side with the Rebels your going to pay the price.

Asaad really doesn't give two craps about the International community because he has two incredibly powerful patrons in his corner that will tie up any international response and a third in Iran that will tie up any Arab response. So International condemnation means little to him, and he's proven that time and time again.

On top of that, Asaad has a fairly massive chemical inventory. Please tell me where the Rebels are getting Sarin gas and VX gas? Also where are they getting specialized troops that you need to both deploy the weapons and operate safely in those environments?

There would be one of two ways.

1) They're stealing them from the Syrian army, If that was true don't you think that Asaad would be all over that screaming from the roof tops that he was innocent and the weapons were stolen and because control of chemical weapons is precise be able to show what stocks were stolen?

2) Your old standby of the Western powers are importing them. Well the big Western gun used to be the united States, but they've disposed of well over 90% of their chemical stockpiles under their treaty obligations. France and Great Britain have also destroyed the majority of their chemical stockpiles as well.

The major players in Chemical weapons are the Russians who still retain a significant arsenal and still continue to develop them. China who still retains a significant arsenal, Iran has held on to a lot of their stuff as well as some other Arab states, and Syria that has four production facilities and a fairly large arsenal especially of Sarin. So if your going to put in a Western Powers gave the Rebels chemicals, I want proof, and not Alex Jones or Infowars level of proof. I want actual proof that's not speculation.

Your theory makes no sense, the Rebels are already getting recruits they don't need chemical attacks since Asaad has been pretty efficient at both winning the battles but leveraging punative attacks to punish sympathizers. The Rebels don't want Western powers on the ground because they can't control who would govern. Asaad doesn't care about International scrutiny as long as he's got two members of the UN security council with Veto's on his size who one of them already has a fairly sizable naval precence in the Region. He also has one of the most dangerous Arab powers in his corner in Iran.

Your theory makes little sense to me.

If this was a crime drama. Asaad has motive, he has means and he certainly has opportunity.

Sometimes things are as they are not matter how un-exciting it is to a conspiracy theorist.

Why would the rebels frame up the Assad regime? - to get the NATO no-fly-zone so they can kill their opposition with impunity. Just like in Libya, NATO bombs the place to the stone age and then walks away. Also, this idea that Assad is heavy handed and just up and killing civilians for no reason, ....that is war propaganda. Armed entities were embedded in the "protests" from the very beginning. Also, the anti-Assad movement has been overhyped in the West. This is not a populist movement against Assad. It would be like Canada providing money/arms to the Tea Party to overthrow the Whitehouse. This is a destabilization campaign. I have shown General Wesley Clark on video decribing how the neocon foreign policy writers have had plans to topple a handful of ME regimes, including Syria for decades now.

Of course Assad cares about what the international community thinks, as they are a threat to his power, which is always of utmost importance. His life is at stake. The US and other nations will act without UN approval if they must. You think London educated Assad is relying on the UN to keep him protected? Ha...that is laughable.

I don't know what rock you have been living under, but the rebels have been receiving training/arms for 2 years now (from NATO in Jordan/Turkey), plenty enough time to learn how to set off some mortars loaded with sarin gas or whatever material. They are getting supplies from NATO members, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Jordan etc. This is a group that has been proven to commit atrocities, like the Houla massacre and the other (now forgotten) small scale chemical/gas attacks in past months. Even the UN acknowledges this. Syrias chemical arsenal was said to be secured by Russian troops. They likely want to hang onto them for use against Israel.

I don't understand your logic of insisting that the Syrian army would use wmd's against rebels near the hotel where UN inspectors are actually staying.....when they flat out don't need to use those weapons to defeat the Al-Qaeda affiliated foreign mercenaries from Libya, Saudi Arabia, Iraq etc. The majority of Syrians do not back these animals unleashing hell on their relatively peaceful, secular nation.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by mikey_the_redneck

Why would the rebels frame up the Assad regime? - to get the NATO no-fly-zone so they can kill their opposition with impunity. Just like in Libya, NATO bombs the place to the stone age and then walks away. Also, this idea that Assad is heavy handed and just up and killing civilians for no reason, ....that is war propaganda. Armed entities were embedded in the "protests" from the very beginning. Also, the anti-Assad movement has been overhyped in the West. This is not a populist movement against Assad. It would be like Canada providing money/arms to the Tea Party to overthrow the Whitehouse. This is a destabilization campaign. I have shown General Wesley Clark on video decribing how the neocon foreign policy writers have had plans to topple a handful of ME regimes, including Syria for decades now.

Of course Assad cares about what the international community thinks, as they are a threat to his power, which is always of utmost importance. His life is at stake. The US and other nations will act without UN approval if they must. You think London educated Assad is relying on the UN to keep him protected? Ha...that is laughable.

I don't know what rock you have been living under, but the rebels have been receiving training/arms for 2 years now (from NATO in Jordan/Turkey), plenty enough time to learn how to set off some mortars loaded with sarin gas or whatever material. They are getting supplies from NATO members, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Jordan etc. This is a group that has been proven to commit atrocities, like the Houla massacre and the other (now forgotten) small scale chemical/gas attacks in past months. Even the UN acknowledges this. Syrias chemical arsenal was said to be secured by Russian troops. They likely want to hang onto them for use against Israel.

I don't understand your logic of insisting that the Syrian army would use wmd's against rebels near the hotel where UN inspectors are actually staying.....when they flat out don't need to use those weapons to defeat the Al-Qaeda affiliated foreign mercenaries from Libya, Saudi Arabia, Iraq etc. The majority of Syrians do not back these animals unleashing hell on their relatively peaceful, secular nation.

I'm not convinced that a chemical attack actually happened.

However, if one did occur, it wouldn't surprise me to see either of Assad or a rebel group having used them.

The problem with the assertions you're making is that they are logical. Middle Eastern dictators do not have a track record of logical action. They often do things we would find totally baffling for no other purpose than to assert themselves. You're correct that tactically speaking, it doesn't make much sense for Assad to use chemical weapons. However, he could have done it to prove a point. Saddam Hussein did the exact same thing after the Gulf war with Nato, a time when the US was threatening to back rebels and topple him.

[FlameOn]

Well if things weren't complicated enough in Syria already, apparently Saudi Arabia has made a secret offer to Russia to safeguard it's naval base in Syria should Assad fall and a guarantee that the Sochi Olympics would not get attacked by Chechen and Islamic terrorists if Russia backed away from Assad.

As-Safir said Prince Bandar pledged to safeguard Russia’s naval base in Syria if the Assad regime is toppled, but he also hinted at Chechen terrorist attacks on Russia’s Winter Olympics in Sochi if there is no accord. “I can give you a guarantee to protect the Winter Olympics next year. The Chechen groups that threaten the security of the games are controlled by us,”

Link

There's a veiled threat if there ever was one. So what is Russia's stake in Syria again besides the naval base? Did 100k people have to die just so Russia had a place to sell it's arms ($4 billion+) and park it's ships?

[Knut]

^ Sounds like bargaining to get Russia to back away from Syria. The Saudi's clearly want the US to topple Assad.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by FlameOn

Well if things weren't complicated enough in Syria already apparently, Saudi Arabia has made a secret offer to Russia to safeguard it's naval base in Syria should Assad fall and a guarantee that the Sochi Olympics would not get attacked by Chechen and Islamic terrorists if Russia backed away from Assad.


Link

There's a veiled threat if there ever was one. So what is Russia's stake in Syria again besides the naval base? Did thousands of people have to die just so Russia had a place to sell it's arms ($4 billion+) and park it's ships?

The Naval base is huge, Putin has stated repeatedly that he wants to re-establish a proper Mediterranean naval presence and because that region is a key energy producer its massively important.

Russia makes 4 billion a year on arms exports to Syria alone, on top of that there is a major Russian business presence there.

there's a 1.1 billion dollar oil construction project being done by the Russians there.

Syria is a middle east anchor for the Russians.

China has a 2.2 billion dollar per year trade relationship with Syria, China National Petroleum has a strategic relationship with Syria's national energy company.

China was also knee's deep in Syria's ballistic missile project in the 90's.

There's no way that Russia and China would be willing to sell out that government at an cost.

[I-Hate-Hulse]

Originally Posted by puckluck2

Such a shame. Syria truly is a beautiful country. I'm only 20 minutes away from one of the borders but there's nothing going on around there.

There are a tonne of Syrian refugees in Lebanon now and we even let 5 families stay in our old house here free of charge.

Hopefully peace prevails and the Syrians can live their normal everyday lives.

Puckluck - I was on a tour a few years ago in Syria. Had the best tour guide I've ever had in my travels. Looked after us for 10 days and even setup an impromptu 12 hr visit to Beirut from Damascus - amazing drive through the Bekaa valley.

I've been in contact with my tour guide in Damascus - his house is destroyed, and his income is zero. From what you're hearing over there - what's the best way to help him and his family? Money is the obvious one but I'm hearing there's no reliable way to get money to them, and even them you're limited to smaller amounts so that they don't become robbery targets.

I'll give him credit - he declined the offer of money - he's trying to get his family to a safe place. Don't know how to help him with that. I'm not Jason Bourne dammit.


I'll echo Old Yeller's post from above - Syria was one of the most amazing places in the world to travel to. History and archeological sites like you would not believe. Untainted by the stench of western tourism - no tacky-tourist claptrap, no Coke/Pepsi, and certainly hamburgers and fries weren't on the "turista" menu... Warm friendly people. Felt safer roaming the dark streets of the Damascus souk late at night than I do in parts of the beltline. All that has changed of course, but it's been a great lesson in travelling - go see worldly places now people - before age, health, politics, family, and circumstances stop you.

[puckluck2]

Originally Posted by I-Hate-Hulse

Puckluck - I was on a tour a few years ago in Syria. Had the best tour guide I've ever had in my travels. Looked after us for 10 days and even setup an impromptu 12 hr visit to Beirut from Damascus - amazing drive through the Bekaa valley.

I've been in contact with my tour guide in Damascus - his house is destroyed, and his income is zero. From what you're hearing over there - what's the best way to help him and his family? Money is the obvious one but I'm hearing there's no reliable way to get money to them, and even them you're limited to smaller amounts so that they don't become robbery targets.

I'll give him credit - he declined the offer of money - he's trying to get his family to a safe place. Don't know how to help him with that. I'm not Jason Bourne dammit.

Yeah man it's pretty hard to send money into Syria right now. Can't send through Western Union as they'd probably be robbed. I had people send money with me just for the off chance that someone I know goes to Syria but no luck. Not many people are entering Syria from Lebanon. I'm in the Bekaa valley right now which is only like an hour away from Damascus.

Sucks to hear about your travel guide and his family and that story is all too similiar to the 82 Israel invasion in which my parents were also left stranded with no money. Lets hope it ends as well for them as it did for my parents.

I'm assuming they can't enter Lebanon? It's a lot safer here and they would find some people willing to help or offering jobs. The wages here are pretty low though (about $15 a day) but enough to feed his family.

Honestly I wish I could be more of a help but the only advice I would give he'd likely already have tried. Entering Lebanon would be his safest bet. The Syrian government is helping the refugees. I've heard they get some money, but not very much.

If he does make it to Lebanon PM me and I'll try finding him a place to stay for a bit.

The cost of living is also rising significantly here. They don't make much but the gas prices are more expensive than it is in Calgary. Grocery shopping is cheaper than there but not by much.

All I can say is god bless Canada. This is a beautiful part of the earth but you got some minority idiots ruining it for the majority of the people who just want to live in peace.

I hope the best for your travel guide and his family.

[Knut]

Updates :

@AP: BREAKING: Arab League says Syrian government to blame for chemical weapons attack that killed hundreds. -MM

@nbcwashington: #BREAKING: Officials say U.S. missile strikes against Syria could come 'as early as Thursday,' NBC News reports.

[Ducay]

Excellent, another Lybia on our hands. Except this one is going to end in full on Sharia Law, and then more civil war between factions for power.

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by blankall

I'm not convinced that a chemical attack actually happened.

However, if one did occur, it wouldn't surprise me to see either of Assad or a rebel group having used them.

The problem with the assertions you're making is that they are logical. Middle Eastern dictators do not have a track record of logical action. They often do things we would find totally baffling for no other purpose than to assert themselves. You're correct that tactically speaking, it doesn't make much sense for Assad to use chemical weapons. However, he could have done it to prove a point. Saddam Hussein did the exact same thing after the Gulf war with Nato, a time when the US was threatening to back rebels and topple him.

Just curious then....how did all those people end up lying dead without any visible wounds to explain it?

I dont profess to know exactly how all the different nerve agents work, but there has to a reasonable explanation for the carnage seen in all those videos if it wasnt a gas attack...and i havent heard or read a single one.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by Ducay

Excellent, another Lybia on our hands. Except this one is going to end in full on Sharia Law, and then more civil war between factions for power.

I really snikered at your spelling of Libya as Lybia.

I agree, I don't see what a military intervention is going to do. I think that the American's are going to take it in the pooper from four sides on this. The rebel groups that don't want them there, the Syrian government with tons of chemical weapons and a decent air defense grid. The Russians and the Chinese.

Personally I would have focused on creating a safe zone for Refugees and let the two sides fight it out til there's nothing left.

[Ducay]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

I really snikered at your spelling of Libya as Lybia.

I agree, I don't see what a military intervention is going to do. I think that the American's are going to take it in the pooper from four sides on this. The rebel groups that don't want them there, the Syrian government with tons of chemical weapons and a decent air defense grid. The Russians and the Chinese.

Personally I would have focused on creating a safe zone for Refugees and let the two sides fight it out til there's nothing left.

Just wait until I send the rockets at Labia, then you'll be laughing.


I think there is a lot of pressure for the US to intervene based on public opinion, just because they see it as another case of Libya, and that we need to support a revolution.....when it really isn't the same case. We're just overthrowing a dictator (monarchy), and putting in a bunch of non-unified factions that also hate each other and also have poor intentions.

There's no real way to depose Assad all while only supporting the "good" rebel groups it looks like.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by Ducay

Just wait until I send the rockets at Labia, then you'll be laughing.


I think there is a lot of pressure for the US to intervene based on public opinion, just because they see it as another case of Libya, and that we need to support a revolution.....when it really isn't the same case. We're just overthrowing a dictator (monarchy), and putting in a bunch of non-unified factions that also hate each other and also have poor intentions.

There's no real way to depose Assad all while only supporting the "good" rebel groups it looks like.

I think that Amercia is going to attack because Obama gave himself no other options and he's had a shaky run as President in terms of his foreign policy. This is his "Don't f%ck with Texas" moment, just like the war in Iraq was George W's "Don't fu$k" with Texas moment.

If American boots do hit the ground, they are going to take fire from both sides, and it won't be pretty.

We don't know what the end goal is going to be. Toppling the government? Establishing safe zones? Removing the threat of chemical and artillary based weapons? If they think that lobbing a couple of cruise missiles in there is going to make a difference then they're weaker then I thought they were.

The whole of the Middle East is turning into a cold war esque battle between multiple regional and international powers, and the only thing that can happen is that America loses more prestige.

I feel terrible for the innocent people in Syria caught in the madness, getting those people to safety should be the only consideration right now.

[Knut]

It is tough one... one one hand you have to act to show a tough hand against Chemical Weapons, and their future use. On the other hand you could throw more chaos into the region.

I have a feeling it will be a measured response targeting some key Assad infrastructure and maybe his elite troops. Weaken Assad to try and force him to make a resolution with the rebels essentially. I do not think the US wants to get rid of him like the Saudi's do.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by transplant99

Just curious then....how did all those people end up lying dead without any visible wounds to explain it?

I dont profess to know exactly how all the different nerve agents work, but there has to a reasonable explanation for the carnage seen in all those videos if it wasnt a gas attack...and i havent heard or read a single one.

My biggest issue with the videos is that the victism are being treated by people wearing shorts and t-shirts. Nerve agents contaminate the people that come into contact with them. It's not possible to treat somene who has been exposed to a nerve agent without taking huge quarantine precautions.

There wasn't a single thing in the videos that I saw that could not have been either staged or taken from one of the other many horrific incidents in Syria. We're talking about organizations that have enough influence and sway to strap suicide vests to themselves. They could get a few dozen people into a room to stage a chemical attack fairly easily.

All this being said, I could totally be wrong, and would not put it past any of the players in this conflict.

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by blankall

My biggest issue with the videos is that the victism are being treated by people wearing shorts and t-shirts. Nerve agents contaminate the people that come into contact with them. It's not possible to treat somene who has been exposed to a nerve agent without taking huge quarantine precautions.

There wasn't a single thing in the videos that I saw that could not have been either staged or taken from one of the other many horrific incidents in Syria. We're talking about organizations that have enough influence and sway to strap suicide vests to themselves. They could get a few dozen people into a room to stage a chemical attack fairly easily.

All this being said, I could totally be wrong, and would not put it past any of the players in this conflict.

Fair enough...I just dont think you can stage dead babies and toddlers like that without them acting up.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by transplant99

Fair enough...I just dont think you can stage dead babies and toddlers like that without them acting up.

I'm not going to go into the details. But with the amount of severe tragedy in that region (100k+ dead), it'd be pretty easy to find the necessary materials and images to fake a video like that.

I don't deny that a chemical attack could have happened, but I'm reserving judgement for more concrete proof.

[polak]

So I stopped following this a little while ago and now what's this I hear about WW3?