U20 tournament - Junior Evaluation Camp (Sieloff, Gillies, Monahan, Poirier & Janko)

[Dienasty]

Not sure if anyone saw this article posted on ESPN (Insider required) talks about the USA WJC summer camp two tidbits on Flames prospects:

Patrick Sieloff, D, Calgary Flames (Windsor-OHL)
Sieloff, Calgary's second-round pick, didn't blow away the competition at this event but was consistently steady, and the improvements in his game are notable. "I think his game is really evolved from last year to this year," Lucia said. "Last year, he was Mr. Rough and Tough. He still has that element to his game, but I think his puck skills are much improved." Sieloff echoed the idea that he needed to address that area of his game: "I needed to work on my puck skills and having a second more with the puck to make the right plays." Sieloff came into the USNTDP as a mobile, tough player, but he's continued to progress really well. He's gotten quicker and stronger while making better plays with the puck. Plus, he defends well.

Jon Gillies, G, Flames -- Gillies didn't play much in the camp, but in his full game versus Canada he was simply sensational, putting on the best goaltending performance of the entire camp. He makes great reads and has top-end athletic tools.

Some nice things said... again this was more of a puff piece though.

http://insider.espn.go.com/nhl/blog/...valuation-camp

[Enoch Root]

There should be absolutely no surprise that there is a strong correlation between players making the NHL and those same players having had success in junior.

However, anyone who is making an evaluation of Sieloff's chances as a prospect, based on 45 games in the league, needs to step back a bit.

I would agree though, that he needs to show improvement going forward (as all prospects do). If his production were to continue at the same pace as last year, then I agree there would be some cause for concern.

However, based on the comments posted above on his WJ camp tryout, along with his play at the prospects camp, it looks like he is progressing nicely on that front.

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by BlueCharlton

If anything, you are looking for a decline. Then you can be a little more worried about him.

No, there has to be improvement (not just a lack of decline). He's getting older (relative to the league) and more experienced (again relative to the league) if he were to just tread water that would be a negative sign.

Frankly, if he can't put up a campaign with decent numbers in Major Junior then I seriously question whether he has the all-around hockey skills to play at the NHL level.

[transplant99]

Weisbrod hints that Seiloff could be with the Flames (small chance beyond a 9 game look-see IMO), and very possible he starts with Abbotsford THIS season as a 19 YO. (USHL rule)

“Another friend called and told me what a physical presence he thought Patrick Sieloff was and what a key factor he was when the U.S. beat Canada,” Weisbrod said. “He’s been outstanding. He’s another guy we had at development camp last year after he was drafted and this year, he was bigger and stronger and more mature. Sieloff’s a guy that could, conceivably, be playing hockey very soon.”

“We came out of this year’s development camp thinking, ‘Boy, this guy might be ready to play pro hockey now.’ We’re obviously in a different state as an organization than we were this time last year. We’re trying to improve our depth and restock our youth and retool our team. It’s really a good opportunity for a lot of the young guys that are ready to start growing in a pro environment.

“Patrick’s a mature, hungry disciplined kid. I think his time is coming sooner rather than later.”

He is going to be a long time NHLer IMO, regardless of what some half baked blogging analysis suggests. Its amazing how many people focus on one statistic to determine what a player will be moving forward.


http://www.calgaryherald.com/sports/...754/story.html

[dustygoon]

Originally Posted by SebC

fyp

BPA is the guy who will deliever the most total value above his contract(s). The reason guys can have positive expected value is because their ELCs are not market price, their 2nd contracts (non-arbitration) are not market price, and their RFA years are not market price.

A guy who is needs lots of development is unlikely to be the BPA, as he has fewer years to deliver value over his contract before he hits UFA.

Nope. You are confusing the talent of the individual vs the talent of the GM in trying to get as much talent on that team per $ spent.

[Tinordi]

Backcheck is making an interesting argument.

This would be a real test of the NHL-E type of analysis that Tranny dismisses.

An interesting analysis is which regular NHL defensemen had similar or worse point production than Sieloff?

I think the jury is still very much out on whether he makes it as an NHL regular contrary to some who are saying it's a fait-accompli.

[MrMastodonFarm]

Originally Posted by Tinordi

I think the jury is still very much out on whether he makes it as an NHL regular contrary to some who are saying it's a fait-accompli.

First of all, lol wow.
Second of all, very few (if any?) are suggesting it's a done deal and there is no possible way he doesn't make the NHL. This is a pretty iffy reason to throw your arrogance around.

[TheGrimm]

It's definitely an interesting theory on Sieloff Backchek but it's simply not logical to use .ppg statistics as a basis for determination of success when talking about an 18 year old kid who switched leagues AND had a lingering groin issue throughout most of the abbreviated season. Not to mention the fact that Sieloff doesn't project to be a power play quarterback. We will be lucky if he's mobile and has a good first pass in addition to the other "assets" which he's already displayed in abundance.

I am definitely curious to see how he performs this year as an adjusted, healthy player (assuming he doesn't end up playing pro).

[tempz]

Where do you all think is best for him this year development wise? I kind of want to see him get another year of junior, not sure why we would rush him into pro.

[GreenLantern]

So this thread kind of went sideways, but overall how did our guys do at the camp?

When will we figure out what the final rosters look like?

[edslunch]

Originally Posted by sureLoss

There is a strong correlation between defense man scoring in junior and NHL success.

Read this analysis of all the CHL dmen taken in the first 3 rounds from 1999 to 2008:

http://thats-offside.blogspot.ca/201...and-draft.html

The author went on to show that dmen who had low scoring in their draft year but still went to have NHL success as he defines it had significant scoring in their junior years after being drafted:

http://thats-offside.blogspot.ca/201...eman-post.html

The only exceptions were Fistric and Luke Schenn (and Schenn was because he immediately started in the NHL after drafting).

So by that analysis, Wotherspoon has a good chance to be an NHLer while Kanzig and Sieloff have low chances.

That being said, I think the reason the correlation exists is because scoring in junior shows a level of intelligence that helps players adjust to the NHL. One of the strengths of Kanzig and Sieloff is supposedly their hockey smarts (or at least thats what the Flames think), so we will have to wait and see them develop.

Interesting analysis, but I can't help feeling like it could be picked apart by someone with better skills than I possess. For example how does draft order factor in? Could it be that the majority of low-scoring, low success players were bottom end picks? He makes the pont that the majority of players fall into the low scoring low success quadrant, but isn't that true of any sport? We're dealing with the pointy end of the bell curve here.

Also the fact that 40% of NHL regulars in this study were low scorers in their draft year suggests that points aren't in fact the be all and all indicator. The 40% includes some pretty notable names, with explanation that they improved in their post-draft years. No sh*t Sherlock, don't most players improve, especially the good ones who are given more opportunity and may have been buried on good teams? Did any of the busts' points improve too?

The author makes several references to defensive ability and size but there is no attempt to factor this in.

Overall I think the analysis is pretty superficial. There's some logic to his argument and he might be onto something, but I don't find his 'proof' to be compelling.

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by Tinordi

Backcheck is making an interesting argument.

This would be a real test of the NHL-E type of analysis that Tranny dismisses.

An interesting analysis is which regular NHL defensemen had similar or worse point production than Sieloff?

The only one I can think of is Methot.

And to those saying that you can't draw too much from part of an OHL season where he suffered an injury, that's a fair point. Though it's also fair to point out that he only put up 6 points in 60 USHL games as well and didn't even crack the top 100 in pts/g by defensemen in that league.

[Tinordi]

Here's a good article on NHL-E which is essentially what we're talking about. It does mention how it doesn't do as well projecting defensive players like Sieloff. The comments section is also a good discussion of the pros and cons of the measure:

http://flamesnation.ca/2013/8/9/eval...valuation-nhle

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by TheGrimm

it's simply not logical to use .ppg statistics as a basis for determination of success when talking about an 18 year old kid who switched leagues AND had a lingering groin issue throughout most of the abbreviated season.

Why not, it's seems as logical as anything else to me. It's not like his low stats with the Spitfires represents some sort of amateur career aberration for him, he didn't put up much with the USNDT either. I mean, I suppose it's possible that league adjustment + health issues + maybe bad luck combined to suppress his overall performance... anything is possible but I wouldn't bet the farm on it.

Originally Posted by TheGrimm

Not to mention the fact that Sieloff doesn't project to be a power play quarterback.

Sure, but I don't think PP quarterback is the expectation. I mean even Robyn Regehr (almost the definition of a physical stay at home defensive defenseman in the NHL) managed to do significantly better then Sieloff did in his Draft +1 year. What skills did Regehr have at the time that allowed him to post decent numbers that Sieloff didn't?

The concern isn't that he doesn't put up the numbers perse the concern is that he may not possess the skills (even at the junior level) to do so and regardless of any other assets that he may possess you need a certain basic level of those skills to be an NHL player... a basic level that when deployed against amateur teenaged competition should probably have ended up producing more.

Originally Posted by TheGrimm

We will be lucky if he's mobile and has a good first pass in addition to the other "assets" which he's already displayed in abundance.

When you say that you're basically saying we'll be lucky if he ends up playing in the NHL (which to a certain extent is true of all non-bluechip prospects) really the only real "asset" which he's already displayed in abundance is a willingness/eagerness to collide with folk... that's not asset enough on it's own to make him NHL worthy.

Originally Posted by TheGrimm

I am definitely curious to see how he performs this year as an adjusted, healthy player (assuming he doesn't end up playing pro).

Me too, I really don't think they ought to have him play pro though. He's obviously not a complete player they ought to leave him where he is to work on his skills (all of them) before advancing to the next level. Contract slides so no risk in having him play another year in the OHL.

[getbak]

Originally Posted by Parallex

I mean even Robyn Regehr (almost the definition of a physical stay at home defensive defenseman in the NHL) managed to do significantly better then Sieloff did in his Draft +1 year. What skills did Regehr have at the time that allowed him to post decent numbers that Sieloff didn't?

Different teams?

Regehr was Kamloops' third-highest scoring defenceman in 1998-99. Sieloff was Windsor's third-highest scoring defenceman last season.

Regehr's team was the second best team in the WHL that year, only one point behind the Hitmen. They were also the third-highest scoring team in the league.

Sieloff's team was 15th (of 20) in the OHL last season. They were also the 15th highest scoring team in the OHL.

[TheGrimm]

Originally Posted by Parallex

Why not, it's seems as logical as anything else to me. It's not like his low stats with the Spitfires represents some sort of amateur career aberration for him, he didn't put up much with the USNDT either. I mean, I suppose it's possible that league adjustment + health issues + maybe bad luck combined to suppress his overall performance... anything is possible but I wouldn't bet the farm on it.

It's not logical to write off a players potential for success based on his success on the scoresheet given the reasons I listed. Correct, he was not a scoring defenseman in the USNDT however I am not ready to rule him out as a capable shut-down guy based on this alone.

Originally Posted by Parallex

Sure, but I don't think PP quarterback is the expectation. I mean even Robyn Regehr (almost the definition of a physical stay at home defensive defenseman in the NHL) managed to do significantly better then Sieloff did in his Draft +1 year. What skills did Regehr have at the time that allowed him to post decent numbers that Sieloff didn't?

It's an incredibly small window to swing a heavy handed judgement hammer down on a kid who's obviously proving at both development camps this summer that he's capable of playing a high level of hockey. Whether it translates to NHL success is very much yet to be seen.

Originally Posted by Parallex

The concern isn't that he doesn't put up the numbers perse the concern is that he may not possess the skills (even at the junior level) to do so and regardless of any other assets that he may possess you need a certain basic level of those skills to be an NHL player... a basic level that when deployed against amateur teenaged competition should probably have ended up producing more.

When you say that you're basically saying we'll be lucky if he ends up playing in the NHL (which to a certain extent is true of all non-bluechip prospects) really the only real "asset" which he's already displayed in abundance is a willingness/eagerness to collide with folk... that's not asset enough on it's own to make him NHL worthy.

I am in no way saying I think he's a lock as an NHLer, but I'm definitely pretty happy with the development path he's on. I think it's selling him short to say that ALL he has to his game is a willingness to throw his body around.

My major concern with Sieloff is that he himself said he has had ongoing issues with his hip, I am hoping it doesn't turn into anything chronic or mobility impairing.

[BigFlameDog]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern

So this thread kind of went sideways, but overall how did our guys do at the camp?

When will we figure out what the final rosters look like?

What Camp?

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by getbak

Regehr was Kamloops' third-highest scoring defenceman in 1998-99. Sieloff was Windsor's third-highest scoring defenceman last season.

To add some context to that statement Sieloff's PPG number was less then half that of the highest scoring while Regehr's was pretty much identical (0.594 vs. 0.593). They're not at all equivalent situations.

Originally Posted by fotze

Regehr was also much younger at the time. I think age wise, Regehrs 3rd year corresponds to Sieloff's this past year.

It was the draft +1 year for both. Same age comparison.

Originally Posted by TheGrimm

I think it's selling him short to say that ALL he has to his game is a willingness to throw his body around.

In abundance though (as you put it) what other asset does he have "in abundance" other then that?

[getbak]

Originally Posted by fotze

Regehr was also much younger at the time. I think age wise, Regehrs 3rd year corresponds to Sieloff's this past year.

That's what I was comparing, the season immediately after they were drafted, Regehr's third year in Kamloops (the only season in his career where he ever put up decent offensive numbers) and Sieloff's first year in Windsor.


Interesting to note that Regehr was a full-time Flame the following season, despite breaking both his legs in a car accident in July of that year.

[BigFlameDog]

Originally Posted by getbak

That's what I was comparing, the season immediately after they were drafted, Regehr's third year in Kamloops (the only season in his career where he ever put up decent offensive numbers) and Sieloff's first year in Windsor.


Interesting to note that Regehr was a full-time Flame the following season, despite breaking both his legs in a car accident in July of that year.

He did, understandably, miss the beginning of the season and play a few games with the Baby Flames before coming up though.