The Flames and Oilers rebuilds similar beginings

[Buck Murdock]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

I thought so too but Edmonton did more of a re-tool post Smyth IMO. They tossed out huge offer sheets on Vanek and then Penner. Rebuilding teams don't do that. They made win now trades and signings up until they started they tank model. The difference is where the teams were when they decided to call it a rebuild. Calgary knew these old veterans were not going to get it done. Edmonton realized their re-tooled lineup that looked promising in 2008 was never going to get it done.

Don't forget the Heatley and Nylander fiasco's. The Oilers have had their share of embarrassments.

[FAN]

Originally Posted by kyuss275

How many UFA veteran players were even remotley as good as Iggy a couple of seasons ago or at least had the type of hype that Iggy would get?

Even if we had traded him last summer he would have brought a lot more back than what he got at the deadline. Iggy had a bad year by his standards last year, and there was a lot of talk that he had lost a step. Iggy's stock dropped big time last year.

I agree. The fact that Iginla hasn't played in the playoffs the past 3 years might actually have helped his stock. While teams were probably worried that Iginla was aging, there was still the belief that Iginla was still a capable goalscorer and on a contender playing alongside a playmaker, Iginla would be able to step it up, especially in the playoffs. I don't know about you, but I was fully expecting Iginla to play turn it on in the playoffs and deliver a great performance.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Iginla's no trade makes all of this discussion moot. He only suggested he would waive it in the final year of his contract and we saw just how committed he was to using that NMC clause. Accept it that all other trade options were not viable, because Iginla would have executed his NMC, and move on.

Trying to get the thread back on topic, I do not see any similarities between the Oilers and Flames situation as far as the rebuild goes. The Oilers have been a team in perpetual rebuild. Outside of the Pronger year they have had no focus or idea where they are going as an organization. It has been two decades of pumping the tires on their prospects and watching as they never develop. They have been all about drafting guys with sizzle, but no real meat. They have really had no philosophy on how to build a team or taken any serious approach to projecting how players would turn out and addressing needs. Their development systems suck and their scouting is equally bad. This has contributed to them being incapable of building anything but an outhouse. Their only saving grace was stumbling I to three first overall draft picks where their scouts didn't have to make much of a decision. Beyond those picks, this board could have picked a better team using the Hockey News Draft Preview issue.

The Flames are just entering their rebuild. They finally recognized it was time to stop chasing the brass ring for Iginla and make the smart move of cleaning house. They are trying to build a good culture and are only drafting guys with character and certain skill sets. They make their own list and don't deviate from it, regardless of the unpopularity of those decisions. They have a plan and they are executing it. They know where they stand as a team and they are addressing the problems with a purpose. Center was once our biggest concern and now we are looking pretty good at that position in just over a year. Size was a major issue and that problem has been addressed pretty well. The problem on RW and on D will be addressed in the next year, I am sure, and we'll have a pretty good picture of what the future looks like.

The thing I like about the Flames approach is you can see where the team is slated to come together. All of is talent should come together in the 2015-16 season. That is the turnaround season based on moves to date and projections of future drafts. Holes are being filled with guys that should be ready to step up in that season and contribute. You can't say that about the Oilers. They still look like a team missing pieces and with no idea how they are going to get them. I'm willing to give MacTavish a year to see what he does, but so far he's followed the typical Oiler mentality and focused on the front end instead of addressing his back end where the problems have existed for the past four or five years. That is a team that doesn't do any introspection to better know themselves. Say all the nasty things you want about Feaster, but he has looked at this organization and made the changes needed to get better. He still strives to do that. The changes yesterday in scouting and player development tell you he understands how important this capacity is. That is why I believe the Flames will not be wandering the desert in five years and that the turnaround is planned and team is moving in the right direction.

Sorry for the wall of text. This issue is hot button.

[kyuss275]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

It sounds like a good explanation, but it explains too much. If that were the reason, it would be equally rare for a star player with an expiring contract to be traded — but it isn't.



I can't recall anybody identifying either Carolina or St. Louis as a contender for the Stanley Cup the last few years. Iginla wasn't interested in moving to the kind of team where just making the playoffs is an improvement — and a team like that isn't looking to blow future assets on a winger in his mid-30s.

I will give you Carolina was not a cup contender but i read many articles that thought St. Louis would surprise last year.

Also if you trade Iggy a couple of years ago his list is way different. He would not have been 35 looking at the situation that its getting near his last chances at the cup. Teams that would have been in the upswing would have been considered because he probably would have felt that there are many years left.

If its just top 4 contending teams he would go to do you think he would have had LA on his list the year they won the cup? The games still have to be played and there is more hype on more teams in the summer that can make a run.

[Tinordi]

The thing I like about the Flames approach is you can see where the team is slated to come together. All of is talent should come together in the 2015-16 season. That is the turnaround season based on moves to date and projections of future drafts. Holes are being filled with guys that should be ready to step up in that season and contribute. You can't say that about the Oilers. They still look like a team missing pieces and with no idea how they are going to get them. I'm willing to give MacTavish a year to see what he does, but so far he's followed the typical Oiler mentality and focused on the front end instead of addressing his back end where the problems have existed for the past four or five years. That is a team that doesn't do any introspection to better know themselves. Say all the nasty things you want about Feaster, but he has looked at this organization and made the changes needed to get better. He still strives to do that. The changes yesterday in scouting and player development tell you he understands how important this capacity is. That is why I believe the Flames will not be wandering the desert in five years and that the turnaround is planned and team is moving in the right direction.

I don't know about your critique of the Oilers' holes. If they have holes then we have alot more. Oilers did a good job this offseason of bringing in character and depth.

This paragraph just looks like rose coloured fan goggle analysis.

With that said, I do think the Flames of 2013-14 are in better position that the Oilers of 2010-11. I do think our prospect depth is better than there's was and I do think that organizationally we have better management.

However the Oilers likely have the better top end prospect depth than the Flames will accumulate over the next three years. I don't think the Flames will draft players of the quality of Hall, Nuge and Yak because, for the reasons I list above we'll likely not bottom out as badly.

That's the crux of the two teams. Will the Flames be a better team with more depth and development or will the Oilers emerge as the better team because of better top end talent?

[Robbob]

Originally Posted by Tinordi

I don't know about your critique of the Oilers' holes. If they have holes then we have alot more. Oilers did a good job this offseason of bringing in character and depth.

This paragraph just looks like rose coloured fan goggle analysis.

With that said, I do think the Flames of 2013-14 are in better position that the Oilers of 2010-11. I do think our prospect depth is better than there's was and I do think that organizationally we have better management.

However the Oilers likely have the better top end prospect depth than the Flames will accumulate over the next three years. I don't think the Flames will draft players of the quality of Hall, Nuge and Yak because, for the reasons I list above we'll likely not bottom out as badly.

That's the crux of the two teams. Will the Flames be a better team with more depth and development or will the Oilers emerge as the better team because of better top end talent?

I think Hall is the best of the bunch hands down. The other two players I think may be attainable for the Flames. Time will tell with Monahan but if the Flames are bottom of the league and draft Ekbad, Nylander or Reinhart, I think they are the same caliber if not better then the other two.

I think the Nuge and Yakipov probably would have been drafted around where Monahan was if they were in that draft class. They certainly do have the edge as they are more proven but I don't think Monahan can be out right dismissed yet.

I do agree that with all the guys that are slated to come for the start of the 2014-15 season that this season coming up is probably the best opportunity to draft in the top 5.

[Tinordi]

I think Yak is pretty underrated around here. I know he's a punk and all that but he looks like an easy 40 goal scorer in his prime. He meets the 1st overall criteria. I think it's very very unlikely that the Flames will have an opportunity to draft a player of Yak's or Nuge's capability outside of the top three let alone Hall.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by Tinordi

I don't know about your critique of the Oilers' holes. If they have holes then we have alot more. Oilers did a good job this offseason of bringing in character and depth.

This paragraph just looks like rose coloured fan goggle analysis.

I would hope we have a lot more holes. We just committed to a rebuild and dumped the majority of our veterans and have open holes for young guys to step into and establish themselves. It's not like we've been drafting first for each of the last three drafts.

What great depth did the Oilers bring in? Perron? An injury prone forward who plays small? Perfect fit in Edmonton. Doesn't improve them at all. Gordon? The guy can win a face off, but after that, I'm not sure he's that much better than Paajarvi. I think they shuffled a deck chair there and only improved in the face off dot. They may be slightly improved, but at the cost of $5.6 million to the cap? On the blue line they added Ference, Belov and Grebeshkov. Ference is the only good addition, but what will he add versus what they lost? They are going to lose Whitney and Fistric, so have to make up with what they brought in. I don't see an improvement.

Overall, the Oilers are still a small team with poor defense and bad goaltending. The only way you could like those changes is if you're a Flames fan and hoping they miss the playoffs again.

With that said, I do think the Flames of 2013-14 are in better position that the Oilers of 2010-11. I do think our prospect depth is better than there's was and I do think that organizationally we have better management.

I'm glad we can agree on this, because Edmonton has been drafting early and drafting often, and outside of the top 10 the Oilers haven't produced a player since 2006' other than Eberle, that has stepped up and become a regular. Other than Klefbom they don't even have any prospects that make you sit up and think they could be a player. If they ain't drafted in the 1st round they ain't going to be a player for the Oilers.

However the Oilers likely have the better top end prospect depth than the Flames will accumulate over the next three years. I don't think the Flames will draft players of the quality of Hall, Nuge and Yak because, for the reasons I list above we'll likely not bottom out as badly.

I wish we had this discussion yesterday, because I could have used your prognostication skills before the Powerball drawing!

I think the Flames will be fine in top end talent. They are going to be bottom of the barrel for the next two seasons and that should recoup them one of Reinhart or Ekblad. With the losses of Cammalleri, Stajan and Stempniak this season we will probably be worse in 2014-15 and have an honest shot at McDavid. If this does play out, the Flames will have more high end talent, at more positions, in a shorter period of time, than the Oilers. That also doesn't include the prospect depth that we have built up quickly over the past three years.

That's the crux of the two teams. Will the Flames be a better team with more depth and development or will the Oilers emerge as the better team because of better top end talent?

I think you're grossly over-rating the top end talent on the Oilers and under-rating the talent the Flames are developing. Hall had a great half a season. Follow it up and prove you're that good. Hopkins was terrible last season and has to step his game up. Actually, the best thing that could happen to the Oilers is for him to have another below average year so they can get him under contract cheaply. The last thing they need is another $6M salary to deal with. We'll also see how Yakupov does going forward. Lots of skill, but appears to be short on character. I still think the Oilers should have gone after Murray or Reinhart to fill a gaping hole and provide some balance to their team. I think in the long run they will both be better players. I'm just not enamoured with the Oilers and their shiny toys. I just don't see much character or much of a team being built up there.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by Tinordi

I think Yak is pretty underrated around here. I know he's a punk and all that but he looks like an easy 40 goal scorer in his prime. He meets the 1st overall criteria. I think it's very very unlikely that the Flames will have an opportunity to draft a player of Yak's or Nuge's capability outside of the top three let alone Hall.

I think if Monahan was draft eligable in 2012 he goes 1 over Yak. Not every draft year is like 2013 though in terms of talent up for grabs in the top 10.

Monahan had a worse ppg than Yak but has the size, and 2 way play that would have made him the more attractive prospect in 2012

[Izzle]

Very interesting discussion. Kudos to everyone.

I'm of the opinion that the Flames rebuild is pretty much the same as the Oilers. Obviously, I'm no fortune teller and I dont know what the future holds. I like the look of the Flames prospect, but it sounds like how the oilers fan base talked about their prospects. Fact is, we dont know how they will perform. Would they be better than the Oilers? Would they be worse? Who knows.

As much as I would love Monahan to be comparable to RNH and Yak, the fact is, he is not. He hasnt played in the NHL, the other two have. RNH had a pretty good rookie season and digressed in the next season because he was carrying an injury. It affected his WJC performance too. I was completely ready for him to absolutely destroy the WJC. While he played very well, it was apparent that he was playing with an injury. I also dont like that the Oilers are not rushing him to start (from a flames fan perspective). Looks like they will let him rest till Nov 1 and then let him play. For Oilers fans, that is really good. Rest is good for RNH and the Oilers.

Hall had a shoulder injury, rested up and was gang busters (in a shortened season). If I am being honest with myself, I would say that he will carry this forward to the next season and beyond. Hall is a legitimate talent and has the junior pedigree to back it up.

I dont understand the negativity regarding Yak. He doesnt seem punkish to me. He had a slide-y celebration and then another instance called his teammates to come to him to celebrate a goal. Other than that what I do see is a player with explosive speed with a lethal shot. I hope the Oilers find him expendable and trade him to the east. I dont want to face that guy. I would be very hesitant to say that Monahan would be better than Yak atleast points wise.

Lets see the Flames top end. Big Jank, honestly, i really dont know how he will progress. Just such an off the board pick by feaster.

Monahan is going to be very good. As good as the Oilers threesome? I dont know.

Backlund is rounding out nicely. Ideally he'd be a #2 centerman on a contending team.

Sven is going to be a stud. This is going to be his first full season with the flames and i expect great things from him.

Johnny hockey's height is the only thing keeping me from saying he'd be a stud. Guy is smaller than Gagner! But is feisty fast.

Now after Kipper, who's going to be in goal? remember the times when we'd put in back up goalies and they'd get lit up. I dont have much confidence in our goalies, and even if we draft one, he wont help till he's 26 (ideally the J. Howard route in Detroit).

All in all... Who knows.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by Loyal and True

Cammy trade we gave away Bourque who scored quite a few goals for us but needed to move on. Traded a pick but get Ramo. I agree that Flames were not tanking and they obviously wanted to make the playoffs at the time.

Schenn was obviously someone LA would part with in the right package. They landed Richards who is young, long term affordable contract and elite. In my opinion Flames would have needed to throw in future assets to be comparable value. Iggy + Backlund+ for Schenn or Iggy + 1st (Baertschi) for Schenn+

The bolded point is where we will have to agree to disagree. Iggy was a beast in the 10/11 season and with his 43 goal performance and long term pedigree as a leader, scorer, fighter/power forward he would have been very attractive to the Kings.

I think the deal would have looked something like Iggy, Tangs, Glencross for Schenn, Simmonds, Tuebert, 1st, 2nd. Those are the pieces LA parted with for Richards and Penner from the deadline 2011 into the summer that year. Both Glennie and Tangs were having good solid years and were pending UFA's. Iggy was having a beast year and locked up for 2 more beyond. Schenn had yet to dominate the world juniors when this speculation was at it's peak and Simmonds was not the player he turned out to be in Philly.

[Tinordi]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

I think if Monahan was draft eligable in 2012 he goes 1 over Yak. Not every draft year is like 2013 though in terms of talent up for grabs in the top 10.

Monahan had a worse ppg than Yak but has the size, and 2 way play that would have made him the more attractive prospect in 2012

Ehhh, we're grasping here. You'd have to prove to me that Monahan was scouted as equal or better than Yakupov. I really doubt it.

[Tinordi]

I think you're grossly over-rating the top end talent on the Oilers and under-rating the talent the Flames are developing. Hall had a great half a season. Follow it up and prove you're that good. Hopkins was terrible last season and has to step his game up. Actually, the best thing that could happen to the Oilers is for him to have another below average year so they can get him under contract cheaply. The last thing they need is another $6M salary to deal with. We'll also see how Yakupov does going forward. Lots of skill, but appears to be short on character. I still think the Oilers should have gone after Murray or Reinhart to fill a gaping hole and provide some balance to their team. I think in the long run they will both be better players. I'm just not enamoured with the Oilers and their shiny toys. I just don't see much character or much of a team being built up there.

Again this reads like ginned up rival talk.

Hall was 8th in the league in PPG and didn't look out of place doing it. Guy was carrying the mail on that team. He's in the top 5 left wings in the league easily. And I suspect he'll more than back it up this year. There's really nothing to argue to say he wont outside of injuries which you can't project. He's in his prime, and has showed an upward trajectory in each of his years in the league.

Hopkins yep there's concerns there but only because of injuries. His pedigree and rookie season showed an elite level playmaker. Still alot of reasons to be optimistic about him.

Yakupov, I consistently hear this line of argument. That the Oil should have given up a projected 40 goal sniper for, at most, a number two defenceman in Murray. Makes utterly no sense. Yak actually put together a very good rookie season, projected at 30 goals over 82 games. A 30 goal scoring rookie? Sure it's just projected and it wouldn't have likely lasted but even so, a 25 goal scoring rookie? Who in this era scored more as a rookie? It's an impressive list of guys. I just don't know why Yakupov is so poorly thought of around these parts.

[Robbob]

I vaguely remember a blurb about Monahan and draft position. (found it) This was the blurb:

According to Red Line Report, the fact that this year's draft is so deep has perhaps forced Monahan down slightly in the rankings:

He is gifted enough that in most years he would be a top three overall pick. Has all the tools you look for in a legitimate #1 centre: excellent size, a smooth, deceptive stride, great stickhandling skills, and tremendous creativity and passing touch.

[Izzle]

Originally Posted by Robbob

I vaguely remember a blurb about Monahan and draft position. (found it) This was the blurb:

According to Red Line Report, the fact that this year's draft is so deep has perhaps forced Monahan down slightly in the rankings:

He is gifted enough that in most years he would be a top three overall pick. Has all the tools you look for in a legitimate #1 centre: excellent size, a smooth, deceptive stride, great stickhandling skills, and tremendous creativity and passing touch.

Thats fine and good. It however, doesnt suggest that Monahan is better than Yakupov. That is an interpretation being made by fans.

[Loyal and True]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

The bolded point is where we will have to agree to disagree. Iggy was a beast in the 10/11 season and with his 43 goal performance and long term pedigree as a leader, scorer, fighter/power forward he would have been very attractive to the Kings.

I think the deal would have looked something like Iggy, Tangs, Glencross for Schenn, Simmonds, Tuebert, 1st, 2nd. Those are the pieces LA parted with for Richards and Penner from the deadline 2011 into the summer that year. Both Glennie and Tangs were having good solid years and were pending UFA's. Iggy was having a beast year and locked up for 2 more beyond. Schenn had yet to dominate the world juniors when this speculation was at it's peak and Simmonds was not the player he turned out to be in Philly.

Your comments are fair enough. I acknowledge that Iginla had a high short term value (I agree he was a beast that season) but I contend that his long term value was lower due to his age and a decline from age 33 to 36 being predictable (you can read Kent Wilson and co.'s predictions for the 11/12 season for example) while his cap hit of course stays at 7M all the way to the end.

Richard's short term value was high and his long term value was very high, due to his age, contract and elite skill. I just don't see the decribed Flames package providing enough long term value to justify all the long term assets LA gives up in the Philly deal.

[Loyal and True]

Originally Posted by Calgary4LIfe

I will throw my useless argument in the Flames' favor as I believe the Flames IN A WAY have been rebuilding for a while now.

I think the Flames started their rebuild in their hockey ops departments. The increased their scouting staff, and identified what they look for in prospects. The team is built around Hockey IQ and vision, as well as work ethic and intangibles (apparently the Flames place a very high regard in how prospects interview).

They have a few more drafts where I dare say put them ahead of the Oilers at the start of their rebuild, and though there is definitive proof until they make it into the NHL - Flames SEEMINGLY have been a better drafting team than the Oilers have been over the last few years counting the Oilers' rebuild. The Oilers haven't drafted much if any impact players in their rebuild years outside the 1st round - and my argument may indeed be worthless until the Flames' prospects start breaking out into the NHL in more numbers and having more impact.

Only time will tell which team has done a more efficient and effective rebuild. IMO (and at this point, it is truly just that) - Calgary has more pieces than the Oilers did at the same respective points in their rebuild. Nothing will be proven one way or another until the Flames transition from rebuilding to competing, however.

I strongly agree with your opinion. Great post.

[Tinordi]

I wish we had this discussion yesterday, because I could have used your prognostication skills before the Powerball drawing!

I think the Flames will be fine in top end talent. They are going to be bottom of the barrel for the next two seasons and that should recoup them one of Reinhart or Ekblad. With the losses of Cammalleri, Stajan and Stempniak this season we will probably be worse in 2014-15 and have an honest shot at McDavid. If this does play out, the Flames will have more high end talent, at more positions, in a shorter period of time, than the Oilers. That also doesn't include the prospect depth that we have built up quickly over the past three years.

My point here is that I think the Flames are further ahead than the Oilers were in their come to Jesus moment. Because of which, I think it's less likely that the Flames will be as bad as the Oilers to lock up the kind of talent the Oilers did during the 'pain' stages of the rebuild.

And it doesn't even need to be argued from an on-ice perspective. The basic odds of getting three firsts in succession, now under the new rules are vanishingly small.

As an aside, you're calling me out for using a crystal ball then you go on to say that we're going to draft Ekblad or McDavid. I'm saying that the odds aren't good to do so and you're basically saying that we're going to win the lottery. So who's picking the Keno numbers here again?

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Tinordi

Yakupov, I consistently hear this line of argument. That the Oil should have given up a projected 40 goal sniper for, at most, a number two defenceman in Murray. Makes utterly no sense. Yak actually put together a very good rookie season, projected at 30 goals over 82 games. A 30 goal scoring rookie? Sure it's just projected and it wouldn't have likely lasted but even so, a 25 goal scoring rookie? Who in this era scored more as a rookie? It's an impressive list of guys. I just don't know why Yakupov is so poorly thought of around these parts.

5 goals (almost 30% of his total) came in the last two, meaningless games at the end of the season. Very difficult to try and project those numbers.

I won't speak for others, but my complaint with Yakupov isn't with respect to talent - I fully acknowledge that he has boatloads of talent. My complaint is that he is a selfish player who scores a good chunk of his goals at meaningless times. When things really matter, he is invisible.

It is all opinions of course, but I don't want him on my team.

As for calling Murray a #2 defenseman, while at the same time slotting Yakupov in for 40 goals, is pretty silly and meaningless.

[Tinordi]

As for calling Murray a #2 defenseman, while at the same time slotting Yakupov in for 40 goals, is pretty silly and meaningless.

Can you point me to any scouting reports that project Murray to be anything more than a #2 defenceman? There's lots of reports projecting Yakupov as a prolific goal scorer, I'll leave you to look those up.