The Flames and Oilers rebuilds similar beginings

[Vinny01]

I have been thinking about the rebuilds of the 2 Alberta teams recently and notice some major similarities when both teams realized they needed to tear it down and build from within. Sorry this is long but could be an interesting discussion. I think it is only natural we have a thread that compares our rebuild to our biggest rival.

When the teams decided to tear it down:
Both teams decided to sell a rebuild to their fanbases 3.5 seasons after they last made the playoffs. Some may argue the Oilers rebuild began in 2007 when they had 3 first round picks but they spent the next 3 summers chasing big name free agents. Vanek and Penner in 07, Hossa in 08, Heatley and Khabibulin in 09. Penner and Khabibulin were only fish they landed. The Flames spent the offseasons after they missed the playoffs going after Jokinen/Tanguay in 10, Brad Ricahrds in 11, Hudler and Wideman in 12. It is also interesting to note both teams tried brand new coaching staffs the year before they decided to rebuild. Quinn in Edmonton and Hartley in Calgary.

One big difference in when they decided to tear it down was how the teams were built. The Flames were an old team built around 35 year old Iggy and 36 year old Kipper. Most of the main support pieces in Calgary were also 30+, and a severe lack of 22-27 age players made it clear to everyone the team needed to be blown up. Flames move Iggy and Bouw for picks and prospects and the rebuild is on.

Edmonton on the other hand was a fairly young team. They had a young group of forwards they used to gush about. Ganger, Cogliano, Nillson, Brule, O'Sullivan, O'Marra. Injuries and just flat out terrible play put the Oil in heavy tank mode. They moved out a few players at the deadline of 2010 but nothing near the same level as Calgary. They swapped Vishnofski for Whitney, and moved a couple of Dmen for picks.

The pieces they have at the beginning:

Edmonton quickly moved on from most of their young forward core getting rid of Nillson, O'Sullivan, Cogliano, Brule, and O'Marra. With their first overall pick they selected Taylor Hall who is likely going to be their captain next season. Edmonton also had 2008 1st rounder Jordan Eberle and 2009 10th overall pick MPS and both players were extremely hyped. Those 3 players along with Sam Ganger represented the Oilers key pieces moving forward.

The Flames prize for a horrible 2013 season was selecting Sean Monahan with the 6th pick. He has potential to be a future captain and franchise player moving forward. In addition the Flames have Sven Baertschi, and Johnny Gaudreau who we believe can be top 6 forwards with elite potential with young Dman TJ Brodie having top pairing upside on the back end.

Both teams had about 4 solid pieces they identified moving forward. The Oilers have since locked up 3 of their pieces and traded the other for David Perron. They continued to be absolutely terrible for 3 years drafting 1st, 1st, 7th. They enter year 4 of their rebuild with a new GM, 3rd coach and playoffs are going to be the expectation in Edmonton next year. The Flames enter year 1 with a roster built for 30th overall, a few decent trade chips, and a decent base of prospects.

There are some major similarities between the 2 teams when they decided to start a major rebuild. Who do you think is positioned better in year 1? Can Calgary avoid going 4+ years like Edmonton?

[Lanny_McDonald]

The problem is I believe Edmonton's rebuild began when they traded away Smyth, not three years later. This is when Edmonton threw in the towel for the first time and traded known players for promise. The fact they continued to try and compete is irrelevant. They were trying to win, selling it to the fans as a playoff contender, and they sucked their way into three first overall picks.

[Vinny01]

I thought so too but Edmonton did more of a re-tool post Smyth IMO. They tossed out huge offer sheets on Vanek and then Penner. Rebuilding teams don't do that. They made win now trades and signings up until they started they tank model. The difference is where the teams were when they decided to call it a rebuild. Calgary knew these old veterans were not going to get it done. Edmonton realized their re-tooled lineup that looked promising in 2008 was never going to get it done.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

I thought so too but Edmonton did more of a re-tool post Smyth IMO. They tossed out huge offer sheets on Vanek and then Penner. Rebuilding teams don't do that. They made win now trades and signings up until they started they tank model. The difference is where the teams were when they decided to call it a rebuild. Calgary knew these old veterans were not going to get it done. Edmonton realized their re-tooled lineup that looked promising in 2008 was never going to get it done.

I don't buy that narrative. I think they tried to shortcut the rebuild by raiding another team of their top young talent, believing it would supplement the young players they already had. The Flames were willing to try the same thing, but it failed and they were forced into admission that the rebuild was on. The Oilers were that way from the Smyth trade on, they were just too proud to admit it and do it right.

[CalgaryFan1988]

Penner wasn't a UFA and neither was Vanek. They were both RFA's in the right age group to help a rebuilding team, because the oilers were already rebuilding at that point IMO.

Same as what NE said about Smyth. You can't trade Smyth away, at the age he was, and imply you're not rebuilding.

[kyuss275]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

There are some major similarities between the 2 teams when they decided to start a major rebuild. Who do you think is positioned better in year 1? Can Calgary avoid going 4+ years like Edmonton?

I guess you can say that the flames might be positioned better but for that to happen we need Sven, Brodie and Gaudreau to all hit their full potential. Really when a team decides to go full rebuild, i don't think any are positioned better than the other. It's a full rebuild for a reason.

Realistically it will probably take 4 years for the flames to have a chance to make the playoffs. Not saying they will make it in 4 years, that's the earliest i see it, unless one of Berra or Ramo step in as a Vezina type goalie.

The big difference the flames can make is drafting. Not saying the Oilers took the wrong choices, but they all seem like the same player. If flames can get a big skilled players in their drafting, when its time for the rebuild to be over, instead of playoff talk, they could be having Stanley Cup talk.

[#-3]

It's hard to find what a team had for prospects in there system 3 years ago. So I'm just trying to guess who the 40 players were at the time, who the Oilers might have thought would have an impact on there NHL roster of the following 3 seasons. comparing the teams.

Horcoff - Stajan
Penner - Glencross
Hemsky - Cammaleri
O'Sullivan - Stempniak
Pisani - Hudler
Nilsson - Neimsz
Moreau - D Jones
Gagner - Backlund
Comrie - Galiardi
Cogliano - Baertschi
Pouliot - Knight
Brule - Horak
Stortini - Jackman
Stone - Hanowski
Jacques - Bouma
Potulny - B Jones
R Jones - Reinhart
MacIntyre - McGrattan
O'Marra - Jooris
Hall - Monahan
Eberle - Gaudreau
Paajarvi - Klimchuk
Omark - Porier
Hartikainen - Jankowski
Lander - Granlund

Souray - Wideman
Whitney - Girodano
Gilbert - Brodie
Grebeeshkov - Butler
Staios - O'Brien
Smid - Russell
Strudwick - Smith
Chorney - Wotherspoon
Peckham - Seiloff
Arsene - Breen
Jonson - Condari
Plante - Ramage
Motin - Martin
Marincin - Kanzig

Khabiibulin - McDonald
D-Deslauriers - Ramo
Dubnyk - Berra
Pitton - Ortio
Roy - Brissoit
Bunz - Gillies

I think the guys in bold are clearly better than the players I compared them too, but I think for the rest of the players we will have to wait and see how they develop.

I think the Flames already have a better NHL roster today (except for the goalie).

So I think we can avoid there level of futility if a few things happen.

We need our Goaltending prospects to develop better & faster. I hope that having worse NHL goaltending will actually help that situation.

We need to keep our top 2 D men, who are not yet over the hill. You can't really avoid the injury problem Whitney had, but the Souray thing really did set that franchise back. Especially after going through the same thing with Pronger.

And we need to get some value out of guys like Stajan, Cammaleri, and Stempnaik. Rather then holding on to mid level players who do not fit with the direction the team is going, or trading for players with limited future value.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by CalgaryFan1988

Penner wasn't a UFA and neither was Vanek. They were both RFA's in the right age group to help a rebuilding team, because the oilers were already rebuilding at that point IMO.

Same as what NE said about Smyth. You can't trade Smyth away, at the age he was, and imply you're not rebuilding.

Exactly they were RFA's that the Oilers were willing to surrender upcoming first round picks to acquire. They moved Pronger and Smyth for futures but signed the rest of their core and looked to fill holes with veterans. Not really rebuilding moves. The flames traded Dion for immediate depth/help and moved Regehr for younger players/cap relief but that was not considered a rebuild trade.

I think the type of rebuild the flames are doing now resembles the rebuild the oilers started in 2010 more than 2007. Had the flames tried to trade for or sign veteran players or sign high profile rfa's this summer it would look exactly like 07 Oilers

[Red Slinger]

I'm not 100% convinced that the Oilers were really in full re-build mode until maybe 2011. Right up until that they were still chasing high priced talent in a "win now" mode and/or were still retaining some of their older, more expensive players. Right up until a couple years ago the Oilers brass was still proclaiming that they goal was to make the playoffs and that they thought that they could do it with their lineup. When they didn't make the playoffs, they blamed injuries and other factors. I think the realization eventually sunk in and they went into a full rebuild.

Whta the Flames are doing, I believe, is much more of a full tear down and rebuild. As a result, I think the Flames are going to be potentially 1-2 years ahead of the pace of the Oilers rebuild. Nevermind that the way the Oilers went about the rebuild was a bit odd: getting all the same type of forwards- small and skilled.

[CalgaryFan1988]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

Exactly they were RFA's that the Oilers were willing to surrender upcoming first round picks to acquire. They moved Pronger and Smyth for futures but signed the rest of their core and looked to fill holes with veterans. Not really rebuilding moves. The flames traded Dion for immediate depth/help and moved Regehr for younger players/cap relief but that was not considered a rebuild trade.

I think the type of rebuild the flames are doing now resembles the rebuild the oilers started in 2010 more than 2007. Had the flames tried to trade for or sign veteran players or sign high profile rfa's this summer it would look exactly like 07 Oilers

Yeah, I guess we have a difference of opinion. Either way there are similarities, regardless of when people believe the rebuild started.

You could compare O'reilley to the Vanek offer, I suppose.

[Vinny01]

It turned out that only 1 of the Oilers young players that debuted prior to the 10/11 season is still with them in Ganger. Brule, O'Sullivan, Nillson, are basically out of the league and they moved Cogliano a couple seasons ago. Will the Flames comparable forwards fair better? Backlund, Bouma, Knight, Reinhart, Nemisz, Horak come to mind. I think 4-5 of the 6 of them will turn out to be decent. The Flames also have young high ceiling prospects in Jankowski, Klimchuck, and Poirier which the Oilers did not have after the 2010 draft

[The Coppernian One]

Originally Posted by New Era

The problem is I believe Edmonton's rebuild began when they traded away Smyth, not three years later. This is when Edmonton threw in the towel for the first time and traded known players for promise. The fact they continued to try and compete is irrelevant. They were trying to win, selling it to the fans as a playoff contender, and they sucked their way into three first overall picks.

That's when it should have happened, but not when it did. The Oilers were still looking at their run in 06 and thought they were close, choosing to ignore the red flags of that season (backing into the playoffs, MacT on the verge of being fired). Even after trading Smyth they were still making "now" moves (rebuilding teams don't get rid of first round picks). And though they traded Smyth they had just signed other guys to long and/or overpriced deals (Horcoff, Moreau, Pisani). They were still bringing guys like Visnovsky, Souray in while chasing other big fish.

Their first year of picking first wasn't even a rebuild either. Major injuries (Hemsky, Khabibulin, Souray and many more) took a bubble roster (at best) and pushed it down (the Oilers were a cap team that year, although with injuries they spent most of it with almost 25% of their salary out of the line up). That was probably the best thing for the Oilers as who knows how long Lowe would have kept trying with that roster instead of starting to dismantle it.

I think what the Flames have going for them is that they had better pieces to start the re-build (Iginla, Bouwmeester, etc.). The Oilers had nothing similar to trade for rebuilding assets. Whether Calgary used that effectively won't be known for a couple of years yet.

[Vinny01]

I think both teams officially threw in the white flag when they were both trending toward a 4th straight playoff miss. The oilers entered that summer with the 1st overall pick and a message to fans that tough years were ahead but a return to glory was coming. The flames entered this summer with 3 1st round picks in a deep draft. They say they are rebuilding and will still be competitive. Having said that the flames are terrible on paper and most will predict we finish bottom 3 next year. Flames are telling the fans rebuilds do t have to take a long time but expectations are at an all time low

[Calgary4LIfe]

I will throw my useless argument in the Flames' favor as I believe the Flames IN A WAY have been rebuilding for a while now.

I think the Flames started their rebuild in their hockey ops departments. The increased their scouting staff, and identified what they look for in prospects. The team is built around Hockey IQ and vision, as well as work ethic and intangibles (apparently the Flames place a very high regard in how prospects interview).

They have a few more drafts where I dare say put them ahead of the Oilers at the start of their rebuild, and though there is definitive proof until they make it into the NHL - Flames SEEMINGLY have been a better drafting team than the Oilers have been over the last few years counting the Oilers' rebuild. The Oilers haven't drafted much if any impact players in their rebuild years outside the 1st round - and my argument may indeed be worthless until the Flames' prospects start breaking out into the NHL in more numbers and having more impact.

Only time will tell which team has done a more efficient and effective rebuild. IMO (and at this point, it is truly just that) - Calgary has more pieces than the Oilers did at the same respective points in their rebuild. Nothing will be proven one way or another until the Flames transition from rebuilding to competing, however.

[Robbob]

the one thing Calgary has at year one of rebuild is help potentially coming from picks out side the first round. The oilers have struggled developing a player out of the first round which is why they now need to overpay to fill the bottom of the roster.

[Sylvanfan]

Edmonton ended up in a really odd situation due to Pronged. A cup finals team had three significant pieces leave in Pronged, Peca, and Samsonov. Than Smyth traded the next , deadline. But they messed up with Lupul, eventually squandering him into Pitkanen>Cole>O'Sullivan>Vandermeer. Gave up good picks to add Penner, spent a lot to land Souray, and paid Horcoff a big pile of money.

The Flames were late figuring it out. We will see if the learned anything from watching the Oilers stall out for 3 years until they screwed it up so bad they picked first 3 straight years.

[4oh3]

Good post I agree completely. Im really excited for the flames future who cares about the oil

[FAN]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

Can Calgary avoid going 4+ years like Edmonton?

Calgary can and will. Thing is Edmonton didn't try to suck. They just did and decided that the team was better off continuing to suck until the team couldn't suck their way to #1 overall picks any longer.

Calgary won't do that. There's too much money at stake. As soon as there are signs that the team can try to make the playoffs I expect the team to go for it.

[kyuss275]

Originally Posted by FAN

Calgary can and will. Thing is Edmonton didn't try to suck. They just did and decided that the team was better off continuing to suck until the team couldn't suck their way to #1 overall picks any longer.

Calgary won't do that. There's too much money at stake. As soon as there are signs that the team can try to make the playoffs I expect the team to go for it.

I could see ownership doing the bolded part, but i hope they do not. Flames with a proper rebuild are looking at 4+ years to make the playoffs. This year is probably not going to be the big addition of youth. To many younger veterans on one way contracts. I could see 2014-15 being the flames real youth movement. We all know how youth movements go, they are tough.I doubt the youth movement would learn enough in one year, so the flames are close for a playoff spot for year 3.

The only way the flames beat the 4 year mark is if they spend a lot on UFA going into year 3. The problem is that it will be a losing team going into that UFA market and the top guys will not want to go to Calgary. The flames will end up having to over spend and give term to 2nd tier talent. Sure they might make the playoffs, but they would be screwed going forward to make the "real" goal of winning the Cup.

[Robbob]

Originally Posted by kyuss275

I could see ownership doing the bolded part, but i hope they do not. Flames with a proper rebuild are looking at 4+ years to make the playoffs. This year is probably not going to be the big addition of youth. To many younger veterans on one way contracts. I could see 2014-15 being the flames real youth movement. We all know how youth movements go, they are tough.I doubt the youth movement would learn enough in one year, so the flames are close for a playoff spot for year 3.

The only way the flames beat the 4 year mark is if they spend a lot on UFA going into year 3. The problem is that it will be a losing team going into that UFA market and the top guys will not want to go to Calgary. The flames will end up having to over spend and give term to 2nd tier talent. Sure they might make the playoffs, but they would be screwed going forward to make the "real" goal of winning the Cup.

Looking historically at some of the teams that have picked high, that 4 year seems to be the water mark. There have been teams that have manged to turn the corner sooner but that has more to do with hitting the mark on later picks (getting quantity and quality in a short period) or getting a generational talent (sid). The flames will not be getting a generational talent so their only hope is the quality and quantity in a short period. Getting 3 first rounders last draft may have helped it all depends on how those 2nd to 5th picks recently develop (Seiloff, Wotherspoon, Granlund, Gaudreau, etc)