[News] Oilers Worst Team in the NHL

[SeeGeeWhy]

http://blogs.edmontonjournal.com/201...ert-concludes/

Other than having a nice little poll at the end to Jihad, the article promotes a book called Rob Vollman’s Hockey Abstract, which attempts to be for hockey what Bill James' Baseball Abstract did for the MLB (eventually).

To catch reader interest, the author writes about how the oilers blew major chunks last year (durr) and he says the Leafs and Flames were 28th and 29th, with luck factors removed. Further, he projects the Flames to be among the worst next year as well.

Vollman also projects the Senators as having the best odds to emerge as President's Trophy winners in 2013/14.

Has anyone read this book? Worthwhile?

Edit: title for troutman

[sun]

Let the jihad begin!

[jschick88]

Voted. We have some work to do!

[BACKCHECK!!!]

I've read lots of Vollman's work on the ol' blogosphere.

I wouldn't take it as gospel, but he's not completely out to lunch.

Edit: Also, JIHAAAAAD!!!!!

[GreatWhiteEbola]

This one will be fun!!

Derka derka, CP Jihad!!

[terminator]

voted

[moon]

I haven't read the book but having the Sens as the favourite for the Presidents trophy and Leafs as 2nd worst with luck removed would indicate to me it isn't very worthwhile.

[jessnuts]

Interesting read, not sure hockey can ever be analyzed purely by statistics like baseball though, too many different factors, not to mention, baseball is essentially all one-on-one battles, giving statistics much, much more weight then a sport that contains team play and match-ups. Most importantly, of course the oilers are that bad. Voted thrice

Edit: the article was an interesting read, haven't read the book

[Zarley]

Originally Posted by moon

I haven't read the book but having the Sens as the favourite for the Presidents trophy and Leafs as 2nd worst with luck removed would indicate to me it isn't very worthwhile.

Well perhaps you should take a more in-depth look at it, rather than judging a book you haven't read based on this one piece of information.

[Robbob]

his methods are not completely out to lunch. There is some truth to it. I remember quite the thread last year about how Eberle was going to increase his point production. A lot of people disagreed because of his abnormally high shooting %. Sure enough his points per game went down .20.

[moon]

Originally Posted by Zarley

Well perhaps you should take a more in-depth look at it, rather than judging a book you haven't read based on this one piece of information.

It is two pieces of information and two rather large pieces considering it involves the ranking of teams using his analysis and they are way off.

Not sure why I should spend a whole lot more time on it when I don't put much stock into the subject matter in the first place and the info presented looks like a pile if crap.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by moon

I haven't read the book but having the Sens as the favourite for the Presidents trophy and Leafs as 2nd worst with luck removed would indicate to me it isn't very worthwhile.

He had the Leafs as extremely lucky hence their low placing. He's right. The Leafs defense was terrible last year and they managed to get a lot of bounces their way to make the playoffs. Based on a season which was an anomoly for this franchise they went all in this offseason signing average talented players to elite contracts further raising their chances of disaster. I wouldn't be surprised the least if the Leafs miss the playoffs next season.

I don't see the Senators as a Presidents Trophy winner but when you consider the level they played last year without their three top players for a large portion of the season it's not impossible to see them contend for top spot.

He certainly hit the nail on the head with the Flames and Oilers. We all know that the Oilers were fortunate to get a career season out of Dubnyk and a stron powerplay which still was only barely good enough to place ahead of the Flames that received terrible goaltending icing their AHL team after the deadline.

[moon]

The Leafs may have been lucky but no way were they so lucky that with average they are 2nd worst in the league.

The Leafs are a 8-10 place team that got to 6th because of some good bounces and fact they play in the pathetic Eastern conference.

[JayP]

Originally Posted by moon

The Leafs may have been lucky but no way were they so lucky that with average they are 2nd worst in the league.

The Leafs are a 8-10 place team that got to 6th because of some good bounces and fact they play in the pathetic Eastern conference.

Why is that impossible? Look at where the Wild were in the standings after 48 games in 2011-12 and where eventually they ended up (which was predicted by the same advanced stats you hate). This is no different.

Teams can ride luck into the playoffs in an 82 game season. Cut that season length nearly in half and you're going to get some silly results.

[SuperMatt18]

I think the Shot differential, shooting percentage, and save percentage information is relevant, being above or below average in those areas is something that tends to average out year to year.

Too much emphasis is placed on injuries though. I am not sure a fully healthy Senators team would have faired much better last season.

Honestly I could see the Leafs regressing to the norm next season and would not at all be surprised.

[moon]

Originally Posted by JayP

Why is that impossible? Look at where the Wild were in the standings after 48 games in 2011-12 and where eventually they ended up (which was predicted by the same advanced stats you hate). This is no different.

Teams can ride luck into the playoffs in an 82 game season. Cut that season length nearly in half and you're going to get some silly results.

It's not impossible it is untrue.

It wasn't only magical advanced stats that predicted the Wild falling back but many people who simply watched the games.

I know everyone hates the Leafs but they aren't close to as bad as people try make them out to be.

[troutman]

Oilers Worst Team in the NHL

thread title fixed

[opendoor]

I'm not sure I see how a team like Ottawa with a .933 team save percentage (10 points higher than the 2nd best team) is due for a positive correction based on the percentages. Yeah they'll likely gain some goals with fewer injuries, but their sv% played a massive role. The median sv% for teams was .913 which means over an 82 game schedule (about 2600 shots against), Ottawa would have more than 50 fewer goals against relative to the median.

Even if they still get great goaltending next year and have a team sv% of let's say .920 (good for 4th in the league last season), they'd still allow about 33 more GA than their pace last year.

Granted they did have a poor shooting percentage which should go up, but I'm not sure I see much there to predict them becoming an elite team next season.

[Locke]

Originally Posted by troutman

Oilers Worst Team in the NHL EVER!!!!

thread title fixed

Fixed once more.

[kyuss275]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

I think the Shot differential, shooting percentage, and save percentage information is relevant, being above or below average in those areas is something that tends to average out year to year.

Too much emphasis is placed on injuries though. I am not sure a fully healthy Senators team would have faired much better last season.

Honestly I could see the Leafs regressing to the norm next season and would not at all be surprised.

They might regress a bit, but not all the way down to bottom 3. No chance the Senators win the presidents trophy.