Signing our College Prospects

[the2bears]

Originally Posted by Red Menace

I think there is a difference in comparing Johnny to most of the others.
Most players who are good enough to be impactful in the NHL do not have to play the full 4 years, instead they turn pro early, and therefore are forced to sign with their original team if they want to play in the bigs.
Those who play all 4 years are for the most part just lucky to be given a chance anywhere and will take what they can get.
But considering Johnny G's size, playing all 4 years is almost a necessity, and unlike most he will graduate and still be a very sought after prospect.
This being the case, Why wouldn't he wait until Aug 15 that year and explore his options?

I am still very hopeful he will sign with us, but to me it is far from a guarantee.

You make it sound like few good players finish college, something I don't think is the case.

[Vulcan]

Originally Posted by #-3

I still think the thing about Schultz that many people miss, is that he played a year of high school after being drafted. It created a situation where he was a free agent after his senior year but in advance of the UFA period.

Gaudreau can not use "Schultz Loophole" he would not be a Free Agent until August 15th. So rather than creating a Schultz situation it would create a Knight situation where we would have to trade him for slightly less than Market value to a team of his choosing.

All that being said this conversation is still about 20 months premature, as the NCAA would be vary unforgiving if Gaudreau were to open contract talks with the Flames right now. How stupid the NCAA is, is a completely different conversation.

Minor mistake but Schultz didn't play high school hockey. He played an extra year of Junior A in the BCHL.

[#-3]

Originally Posted by Vulcan

Minor mistake but Schultz didn't play high school hockey. He played an extra year of Junior A in the BCHL.

Sorry, I was speaking more in terms of the "Schultz loophole" so I got focused on the US system.

But my point stands, Gaudreau cannot use the Schultz Loophole, worset case senario he is a Knight or Erixson situation and we trade him for something like a couple 2nd round picks.

Teams will want to know that they have him before free agentcy opens up, and it is against NHL rules for other teams to talk to him until August 15th 2 years from now.

[Red Menace]

Originally Posted by the2bears

You make it sound like few good players finish college, something I don't think is the case.

I could be wrong but, I don't think too many top 6 NHL Forwards from the NCAA had to play all 4 years. I'm sure there's plenty of bottom 6 guys like Knight. That's why I think Gaudreau's case is a bit unique.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by Tyler

Very pessimistic this kid sticks around in Calgary. He's a Justin Schultz case for sure

Very compelling argument based on absolutely no evidence.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Red Menace

I could be wrong but, I don't think too many top 6 NHL Forwards from the NCAA had to play all 4 years. I'm sure there's plenty of bottom 6 guys like Knight. That's why I think Gaudreau's case is a bit unique.

Yeah, without actually having the stats, I would guess that the top end guys typically don't finish the 4 years.

Honestly though, if it weren't for his brother joining BC, I would guess that he would have turned pro this summer. Obviously he needs more size before he is NHL-ready, but a season with professional trainers and coaches would have helped him immensely.

IMO, the primary reason he is in BC this year is to play with his brother. I don't see his remaining in college makes him a flight risk in the slightest.

[MissTeeks]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

Very compelling argument based on absolutely no evidence.

Oh no, he only used one exclamation point! He totally doesn't want to sign here!

John Gaudreau‏@johngaudreau037h
Off to Calgary for camp!

[Resolute 14]

And he's paying his way entirely on his own too. Clearly the sign of someone not interested.

[tempz]

From his twitter feed Gaudreau seems to be into country music. Someone get this kid into Nashville North while he's here.

[GGG]

So here are the 4 year guys.

2005
1st round #27 overall - WSH - D Joe Finley - signed with Capitals in 2009
2nd round #34 overall - COL - F Ryan Stoa - signed with Avalanche in 2009
2nd round #53 overall - ATL - F Andrew Kozek - signed with Thrashers in 2009

2006
1st round #29 overall - PHX - D Chris Summers - signed with Coyotes in 2010
2nd round #32 overall - PIT - D Carl Sneep - signed with Penguins in 2010
2nd round #56 overall - NSH - F Blake Geoffrion - signed with Predators in 2010
3rd round #81 overall - COL - F Mike Carman - signed with Avalanche in 2010

2007
2nd round #35 overall - BOS - D Tommy Cross - signed with Bruins in 2012
2nd round #53 overall - CBJ - D Will Weber - signed with Blue Jackets in 2012
2nd round #57 overall - NJD - F Mike Hoeffel - signed with Devils in 2011
3rd round #68 overall - CBJ - F Jake Hansen - signed with Blue Jackets in 2012
3rd round #76 overall - NYI - F Jason Gregoire - used "Schultz loophole", signed with Jets in 2011
3rd round #77 overall - TBL - F Alexander Killorn - signed with Lightning in 2012
3rd round #87 overall - NJD - D Corbin McPherson - signed with Devils in 2012
3rd round #90 overall - OTT - F Louie Caporusso - signed with Senators in 2011

2008
2nd round #43 overall - ANA - D Justin Schultz - used "Schultz loophole", signed with Oilers in 2012
2nd round #56 overall - MTL - F Danny Kristo - signed with Canadiens in 2013
3rd round #86 overall - MTL - F Steve Quailer - signed with Canadiens in 2012
3rd round #91 overall - DET - D Max Nicastro - signed with Red Wings in 2012

2009
2nd round #41 overall - NSH - F Zach Budish - signed with Predators in 2013
2nd round #56 overall - CBJ - F Kevin Lynch - not signed yet, deadline August 15
3rd round #63 overall - PIT - F Ben Hanowski - traded to Calgary and signed in 2013
3rd round #89 overall - CHI - F Daniel Delisle - not signed yet, deadline August 15

Plus Corban Knight.

From this chart I think you see that any player who is going to be an impact player who has used up his eligibility chooses to explore his free agent options or force a trade. So if Gaudreau decides to go back for his fourth year Feaster should look at trading him immediately. However if he is likely to be the star he might be he will come out after his third year. The big advantage being that he can sign at the end of the college season and burn a year off of his ELC in the last 10 games of the season.

So I am not concerned yet but if he goes back for year 4 then its time to panic.

[MisterJoji]

From this chart I think you see that any player who is going to be an impact player who has used up his eligibility chooses to explore his free agent options or force a trade. So if Gaudreau decides to go back for his fourth year Feaster should look at trading him immediately. However if he is likely to be the star he might be he will come out after his third year. The big advantage being that he can sign at the end of the college season and burn a year off of his ELC in the last 10 games of the season.

So I am not concerned yet but if he goes back for year 4 then its time to panic.

Pure speculation, but in pretty sure I've read in multiple places that Gaudreau's dad is very adamant that he wants his son to finish his degree, which pretty much guarantees that he'll go back to college for his senior year. He'll also get to play with his little bro for 2 years if he plays all 4 years. I don't think Feaster should trade him immediately if he decides to go back after this upcoming year, but it does make me a little more nervous about signing him. I hope he has a great time and the developmental camp and Feaster and Co. Are constantly in his year about how great it is here. We also ran the same risk with Ramage and he signed without incident, but he wasn't be as nearly sought after as Johnny likely will be.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by MisterJoji

Pure speculation, but in pretty sure I've read in multiple places that Gaudreau's dad is very adamant that he wants his son to finish his degree, which pretty much guarantees that he'll go back to college for his senior year. He'll also get to play with his little bro for 2 years if he plays all 4 years. I don't think Feaster should trade him immediately if he decides to go back after this upcoming year, but it does make me a little more nervous about signing him. I hope he has a great time and the developmental camp and Feaster and Co. Are constantly in his year about how great it is here. We also ran the same risk with Ramage and he signed without incident, but he wasn't be as nearly sought after as Johnny likely will be.

It is speculation, but speculation based on history. What sought after college player who would be a free agent at some point that year didnt call their shot?

And

What incentive does JG have to sign here after year 4.

[Ashasx]

The Flames will want him signed next summer. If he doesn't sign at that time, then there is concern, and the Flames will have over a year to look at trade options.

I think Gaudreau has more character than that, though.

[Red Menace]

Originally Posted by GGG

So here are the 4 year guys.

2005
1st round #27 overall - WSH - D Joe Finley - signed with Capitals in 2009
2nd round #34 overall - COL - F Ryan Stoa - signed with Avalanche in 2009
2nd round #53 overall - ATL - F Andrew Kozek - signed with Thrashers in 2009

2006
1st round #29 overall - PHX - D Chris Summers - signed with Coyotes in 2010
2nd round #32 overall - PIT - D Carl Sneep - signed with Penguins in 2010
2nd round #56 overall - NSH - F Blake Geoffrion - signed with Predators in 2010
3rd round #81 overall - COL - F Mike Carman - signed with Avalanche in 2010

2007
2nd round #35 overall - BOS - D Tommy Cross - signed with Bruins in 2012
2nd round #53 overall - CBJ - D Will Weber - signed with Blue Jackets in 2012
2nd round #57 overall - NJD - F Mike Hoeffel - signed with Devils in 2011
3rd round #68 overall - CBJ - F Jake Hansen - signed with Blue Jackets in 2012
3rd round #76 overall - NYI - F Jason Gregoire - used "Schultz loophole", signed with Jets in 2011
3rd round #77 overall - TBL - F Alexander Killorn - signed with Lightning in 2012
3rd round #87 overall - NJD - D Corbin McPherson - signed with Devils in 2012
3rd round #90 overall - OTT - F Louie Caporusso - signed with Senators in 2011

2008
2nd round #43 overall - ANA - D Justin Schultz - used "Schultz loophole", signed with Oilers in 2012
2nd round #56 overall - MTL - F Danny Kristo - signed with Canadiens in 2013
3rd round #86 overall - MTL - F Steve Quailer - signed with Canadiens in 2012
3rd round #91 overall - DET - D Max Nicastro - signed with Red Wings in 2012

2009
2nd round #41 overall - NSH - F Zach Budish - signed with Predators in 2013
2nd round #56 overall - CBJ - F Kevin Lynch - not signed yet, deadline August 15
3rd round #63 overall - PIT - F Ben Hanowski - traded to Calgary and signed in 2013
3rd round #89 overall - CHI - F Daniel Delisle - not signed yet, deadline August 15

Plus Corban Knight.

From this chart I think you see that any player who is going to be an impact player who has used up his eligibility chooses to explore his free agent options or force a trade. So if Gaudreau decides to go back for his fourth year Feaster should look at trading him immediately. However if he is likely to be the star he might be he will come out after his third year. The big advantage being that he can sign at the end of the college season and burn a year off of his ELC in the last 10 games of the season.

So I am not concerned yet but if he goes back for year 4 then its time to panic.

Yes, but only 1 of these players is elite; Schultz.
No one would care too much about losing anyone else on that list.
This furthers my point about JG, he will be a rare 4 year elite prospect, and therefore would have every reason to become a UFA.
Still thinks he signs with us, but certainly there is very good reason for Flame fans to worry about this.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by GGG

What incentive does JG have to sign here after year 4.

Opportunity? The Flames will be a team likely to give him top six minutes to make his mark. Other teams may not be so inclined. Also, the Flames can offer him rookie max. Will teams be inclined to do that as well? Combination of opportunity, money and promise make the Flames a very good fit for Gaudreau.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Red Menace

Yes, but only 1 of these players is elite; Schultz.
No one would care too much about losing anyone else on that list.
This furthers my point about JG, he will be a rare 4 year elite prospect, and therefore would have every reason to become a UFA.
Still thinks he signs with us, but certainly there is very good reason for Flame fans to worry about this.

I think that is exactly what I said in my post except that we dont have to worry until after this season. I think feaster will do everything he can to sign him next summer.

[kyuss275]

Originally Posted by New Era

Opportunity? The Flames will be a team likely to give him top six minutes to make his mark. Other teams may not be so inclined. Also, the Flames can offer him rookie max. Will teams be inclined to do that as well? Combination of opportunity, money and promise make the Flames a very good fit for Gaudreau.

If he goes to UFA almost every team will give him rookie max. In a place like Boston he would make more money in endorsement deals.

I agree that if he wants playing time then Calgary is the place to be. That said as much as Feaster has said that he wants open competition for prospects and veterans it has not happened so far.

I can't remember if any prospects played well enough to make the team 2 years ago other than Horak? I do remember that year Byron came up and played well enough to stay but Feaster had no choice to send him down because of playing time and he was on a 2 way contract. Feaster said he would make a trade and get Byron back as soon as possible. I think it took 3 months until the next big injury for him to be recalled.

Last year they had Horak and Sven make the team out of camp but they sent both down because they had to many one way veterans. I didn't mind Sven going down but Horak showed more passion in his short stint than most of the key veterans.

This year if things stay the same, all Feaster has done is lower the age of veterans on one way contracts. Unless a prospect comes up and plays like Gretzky, a one way contract always beats out a 2 way contract. Also the goalie competition that Feaster talks about is pretty much looking like Berra and Ortio would have to post multiple shutouts in preseason to beat MacD for the final spot. Ramo and his contract, guarantee him a spot.

Basically what i am saying is if Hartely does not change his ways of playing veterans over youngsters, and Feaster keeps on signing veterans, albeit younger veterans, then it could cause some concern for Johnny Hockey.

[Resolute 14]

It says a great deal about many Flames fans that they are looking - and hoping - for reasons to be so negative.

[BACKCHECK!!!]

It's pretty straight forward.

Gaugreau is a de facto free agent as soon as he goes back for his 4th year. All he has to do is wait a couple of weeks after the end of the season, and he is free to sign with any club in the NHL.

Him and his father have said that they want him to finish his college education. And if he does, we will be simply left hoping that he chooses the Flames.

You might say it's the path of least resistance for him to stay in the Flames organization, but you could just as easily say the path of least resistance is to stay in Boston.

He very well could sign with the Flames. But there's nothing alarmist about pointing out that there is no concrete reason for him to do so.

[kyuss275]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

It says a great deal about many Flames fans that they are looking - and hoping - for reasons to be so negative.

??????????????

Name one poster "hoping" that Johnny hockey will not sign with the flames.

All some posters are saying is that if he plays his 4th year in NCAA, its not a sure bet that he will sign with the flames. Nothing wrong with analyzing all aspects when it comes to Gaudreau. I am sure the flames are looking at the situation at all angles also.