The Prospect Cupboard

[kehatch]

Originally Posted by Tinordi

Brodie's a prospect?

Not by most published prospect guides he isn't. But he is 23 and just played his first season in the NHL. I consider him as one.

[MrMastodonFarm]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

Montador has had a decent NHL career. Most of the Flames defence prospects in these lists won't play 200 NHL games, let alone 500. That's just reality. If Cundari bounces around the league as a 6th defenceman for 10 years, he'll have beaten the odds.

Absolutely, wouldn't disagree with that at all. That's a different topic though, no?

We were talking about playing style, you're talking about longevity.

Originally Posted by Tinordi

Brodie's a prospect?

Probably not, no. But some people like to group young players with lots still to prove as prospects.

It wasn't until this season he graduated from that status though, in my opinion.

[Tinordi]

He was a prospect before this season, sure. But he's an NHL player now. Graduated.

[MrMastodonFarm]

Originally Posted by Tinordi

He was a prospect before this season, sure. But he's an NHL player now. Graduated.

Glad you agree.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by kehatch

Monahan hasn't played a game of pro yet and still needs to prove he is an NHLer. He is also projected by most scouting agencies to be a really good 2-line C.

Not the scouting services I bought.

Redline
6. Sean Monahan — Ottawa LC
Highly skilled centre with a large frame and a long reach. Outstanding puckhandler and playmaker with great vision — sees the whole ice and is brilliantly imaginative. Able to hold onto the puck that extra split second to buy time for his linemates to break into open ice, and then threads the needle through traffic off both sides of the blade with feather soft passing touch. Also knows how to finish around net and has a pro shot right now. Dangerous anywhere from the blue line in. Will become more powerful and hard to contain as his body fills out. Strong skating stride with good east-west lateral moves. Good speed and quickness. Takes defensive responsibilities seriously and competes well in his own end. Showed great character by competing his bag off every night on a bad team with no help.
Projection: Playmaking, two-way first line centre. Style compares to: Ron Francis/Joe Thornton

ISS Scouting Report:
Monohan's vision off the rush is right up there with the best in this years draft class, he shows incredible vision, poise and creativity to create scoring chances. Sean has the ability to find his teammates anywhere in the offensive zone, truly jaw dropping puck mover. He uses every inch of his frame when protecting the puck and shows great poise when in possession of the puck. On the puck pursuit and backhcheck he has shown a knack for forcing turnovers with applied pressure and great stickwork. Fine tuning his stride and consistent game pace will be crucial in making a much more seamless transition into the pro game.
NHL Potential:
Top 6 playmaking center who has great instincts defensively. Must keep feet moving to reach potential
Style compares to: Mikko Koivu

You read those and get 2nd line centre? I don't. Maybe if you've got Crosby ahead of him.

I'd rank Monahan ahead of Baertschi quite easily. I think Monahan has the best upside of any Flames pick we've taken since I started following the draft almost 20 years ago.

[MrMastodonFarm]

Monahan ahead of Baertschi too... agreed FDW. Baertschi is going to score more goals but Monahan is going to be the more important player.

And that's not cutting Sven down at all. Don't want to be one of those guys who gets too focused on the new kid but Monahan can do so much.

[Tinordi]

Agreed FDW, Monahan is a better prospect than Bart. It will hopefully be very special to watch the two of them play together.

What people are confusing is that Bart has had a whole two seasons of growth that have skewed our perception of him as a prospect. If you compared the two at the time they were drafted then Monahan is clearly better.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by kehatch

Not by most published prospect guides he isn't. But he is 23 and just played his first season in the NHL. I consider him as one.

Brodie has played two seasons in the NHL. He shouldn't be considered a prospect IMO.

[Enoch Root]

Like you said, kehatch, it depends what your criteria are.

I agree that Monahan has even more potential than Baertschi

However, Baertschi has continued to progress for an extra 2 years, making him more NHL-ready. That is also a factor in rating a prospect. For me, that puts Baertschi ahead right now, marginally.

It all comes down to the factors you value the most.

Regardless, these two are our best two prospects right now, I am sure pretty mush everyone would agree with that.

[kehatch]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

Not the scouting services I bought.

Redline
6. Sean Monahan — Ottawa LC
Highly skilled centre with a large frame and a long reach. Outstanding puckhandler and playmaker with great vision — sees the whole ice and is brilliantly imaginative. Able to hold onto the puck that extra split second to buy time for his linemates to break into open ice, and then threads the needle through traffic off both sides of the blade with feather soft passing touch. Also knows how to finish around net and has a pro shot right now. Dangerous anywhere from the blue line in. Will become more powerful and hard to contain as his body fills out. Strong skating stride with good east-west lateral moves. Good speed and quickness. Takes defensive responsibilities seriously and competes well in his own end. Showed great character by competing his bag off every night on a bad team with no help.
Projection: Playmaking, two-way first line centre. Style compares to: Ron Francis/Joe Thornton

ISS Scouting Report:
Monohan's vision off the rush is right up there with the best in this years draft class, he shows incredible vision, poise and creativity to create scoring chances. Sean has the ability to find his teammates anywhere in the offensive zone, truly jaw dropping puck mover. He uses every inch of his frame when protecting the puck and shows great poise when in possession of the puck. On the puck pursuit and backhcheck he has shown a knack for forcing turnovers with applied pressure and great stickwork. Fine tuning his stride and consistent game pace will be crucial in making a much more seamless transition into the pro game.
NHL Potential:
Top 6 playmaking center who has great instincts defensively. Must keep feet moving to reach potential
Style compares to: Mikko Koivu

You read those and get 2nd line centre? I don't. Maybe if you've got Crosby ahead of him.

I'd rank Monahan ahead of Baertschi quite easily. I think Monahan has the best upside of any Flames pick we've taken since I started following the draft almost 20 years ago.

Redline really likes him. But most analysis on him (today) is that he doesn't have the offensive upside to be a top line C. I am not saying he won't get there. Baertschi was projected to be a 2 or 3 line C following his draft. But he still has more to prove.

People over rate the new guys consistently. New and shiny. As I said above, right now Baertschi has a similar or higher ceiling and has a much better chance of being an NHL forward.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Count me in the group that sees Monahan as a second line center. That is nothing against his skill. That is the role he'll be expected to play. A solid two way game, more like Doug Gilmour than Joe Nieuwendyk. I actually see Jankowski being the Nieuwendyk to Monahan's Gilmour. Jankowski will technically be more of the number one, but they will be more 1A, 1B.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by kehatch

People over rate the new guys consistently. New and shiny. As I said above, right now Baertschi has a similar or higher ceiling and has a much better chance of being an NHL forward.

They also rarely take into consideration organizational need or development curve. Lots of things to hold players back or not let them develop properly. I'm not a fan of Ward in Abbottsford and how he hands players. I think he stunts the growth of some types of players. I'm glad that many of our skill players are not in the traditional development path and are playing in the college ranks. Just my opinion of course.

[edslunch]

This is the way I look at it too. Monahan may well be the better long (and maybe not so long) term prospect but Baertschi is the more proven prospect today.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by kehatch

Redline really likes him. But most analysis on him (today) is that he doesn't have the offensive upside to be a top line C. I am not saying he won't get there.

MOST? I provided two scouting service that clearly show he has #1 centre potential. You have countered with zero and yet still claim that most scouting services don't see him having good offensive upside. I know McKeen's wasn't a fan of Monahan but I don't think McKeen's is more reputable than Redline, ISS or FC. As far as I know McKeen's was the only service that didn't love Monahan.

Your claim that he doesn't have the offensive upside to be a #1 centre is a complete load of crap unless you can prove otherwise.

[Itse]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

Your claim that he doesn't have the offensive upside to be a #1 centre is a complete load of crap unless you can prove otherwise.

While your point is basicly true, I think most on this board would appreciate it if you didn't say it in such an aggressive way.

No point in creating flame wars over minor things.

[kehatch]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

MOST? I provided two scouting service that clearly show he has #1 centre potential. You have countered with zero and yet still claim that most scouting services don't see him having good offensive upside. I know McKeen's wasn't a fan of Monahan but I don't think McKeen's is more reputable than Redline, ISS or FC. As far as I know McKeen's was the only service that didn't love Monahan.

Your claim that he doesn't have the offensive upside to be a #1 centre is a complete load of crap unless you can prove otherwise.

Simmer down there mate. It isn't your mother we are talking about. I am sure she is a 1C.

I am not sure how to 'prove' the projection of any prospect except to wait a few years. A quick Google search will show you lots of profiles projecting Monahan as a 2C. But I am not sure that showing you that someone typed something on the internet is proof of anything.

The fact is most prospect services don't commit to specific projections on 18 year old prospects. Of the ones you linked only one said he is a top line guy. ISS said he is projected as a top 6 guy (like most do).

Do a little watching and listening and you will hear that there are questions about his offensive upside which may limit him as a true 1C. Which isn't to say he can't be a 1C. But outside of the top 3 rarely are forwards projected as being top line guys in their draft year.

But the point isn't whether he is going to be a 1C vs a 2C. The point is that when you look between 2000 and 2008 at players drafted between 4 and 10 there were 63 players drafted and maybe 10 ended up as top line guys.

People want to believe that Monahan is a sure fire top line C. But the data doesn't support that. In my opinion Baertschi has a better chance then 1 in 6 to develop into a top line NHLer based on what I have seen from him. And thus is currently the higher prospect. Which was the only point I was making.

[memphusk]

Aggressively typed at. Watch out.

[HighLifeMan]

I don't know why people question his offensive upside.. Sean had better numbers as a 16 year old than Alex Galchenyuk for example...this is a player who missed his entire draft year and was still a top three draft pick.

It's not Monahans fault that his team got dismantled and purged of any and all offensive support. The second leading scorer on the 67's was a 15 year old kid for crying out loud, and Sean basically doubled his production.

[kehatch]

Originally Posted by HighLifeMan

I don't know why people question his offensive upside.. Sean had better numbers as a 16 year old than Alex Galchenyuk for example...this is a player who missed his entire draft year and was still a top three draft pick.

It's not Monahans fault that his team got dismantled and purged of any and all offensive support. The second leading scorer on the 67's was a 15 year old kid for crying out loud, and Sean basically doubled his production.

I don't think anyone questions his offensive ability in junior. His numbers were fine. It is more how well they project to the NHL. He isn't particularly fast or flashy and his strong 2-way game will likely mean he is going to be playing against tough competition.

But don't get me wrong. I think Monahan has the potential of being a franchise C and I don't think he has a ceiling of a 2C. I just think if you want to be fair in the projections history shows that most of these style of players and kids drafted where he is end up as 2-line guys.

But there is an entire thread on Monahan. I was just defending Baertschi as currently being the top prospect in our cupboard based on him being further along in his development and showing his game translates to pro.

[djsFlames]

If Monahan ends up panning out at a solid, 2-way, 2nd line center for many years for us, what's wrong with that?

Not like we even have a legitimate 2-C who can produce like one. (Backlund's progressing, but he's more arguably a 3C on a good team at best right now). If he can win battles at both ends, win the majority of faceoffs he takes, and help the team while maybe putting up 20-30 goals, 60 points, though not franchise player numbers, but doing all the little things right like a Bergeron, then that's a solid piece that we've filled through this draft.

I don't see why people think this HAS to be our future #1, when we don't even have a consensus #2 yet, either. That number one guy may very well come next year, if Sean doesn't become that, and I believe there is still a very good chance of him doing so anyways.

I have a strong hunch that his surroundings hampered his ranking. When he was 16-17, by many opinions he was probably the second most highly regarded in that age group after MacKinnon to project to a top 2-3 pick. And despite a huge dropoff in talent and quality on his team between last year and this year, he still managed to rack up the same points in less games played, which says a lot.