[News] Avalanche to pass on Seth Jones to take forward

[Diemenz]

Originally Posted by Walter Reed

Not surprised at all by this story. Much has been made about the Jones/Colorado connection but the draft is about business and selecting the best player available. Defenseman are a long term, most often they take years to develop into their potential. Not unlike goalies, d-man are a riskier pick, historical data indicates taking a forward pays quicker dividends and the odds of that player meeting high expectations much greater.

Im confused on this notion that it takes Dmen wayyyyyy longer to develop into their potential business. Look at the years in the league from those Dman.

Here is a list of the Dmen chosen in the top 10 in the last 10 years. (there are 3 omitted, 1 passed away and 2 were busts)

[Stampede2TheCup]

Originally Posted by djsFlames

It's my undertanding that the brand of center that Lindholm plays in the SEL is different than what Monahan played here in north america. He only took 60-some odd faceoffs all season, apparently plays wing in certain situations. Kind of like what was going on with Cervenka. I think this has a factor in management's preference, and they would in turn do what it takes to get in position to take Monahan, if Barkov is out of reach.

There doesn't seem to be a big concern Lindholm isn't a real center, it was just his situation the past year. He played wing all year because at the beginning of this past season he was a young guy just cracking a men's team. When he started to do well he had chemistry with an established center so they kept him on the wing. He played center at world juniors.

[Regorium]

I'd go for Nichushkin.

I know it's somewhat of a longshot, but I think the high end talent would really help us. Lindholm would be my next choice.

TBH I'm not that high on Mohanan. Would rather either Nichushkin or Lindholm over Mohanan. I feel like we need serious offensive talent at the moment, and can address our defensive needs with the later picks.

[Walter Reed]

Originally Posted by Diemenz

Im confused on this notion that it takes Dmen wayyyyyy longer to develop into their potential business. Look at the years in the league from those Dman.

Here is a list of the Dmen chosen in the top 10 in the last 10 years. (there are 3 omitted, 1 passed away and 2 were busts)

Year ▾ Pick Name Team EXP GP G A Pts PPG +/- PIM PIM/S S S%

Average
5 280 22 74 96 0.31 -10 215 41 439 4.6 '03 7 Ryan Suter MIN 8 590 42 228 270 0.46 45 420 53 917 4.6 '03 8 Braydon Coburn PHI 7 493 31 109 140 0.28 30 425 61 688 4.5 '03 9 Dion Phaneuf TOR 8 600 106 234 340 0.57 1 801 100 1,717 6.2 '04 3 Cam Barker VAN 7 310 21 75 96 0.31 -29 290 41 385 5.5 '04 9 Ladislav Smid EDM 7 457 10 53 63 0.14 -39 375 54 292 3.4 '05 3 Jack Johnson CBJ 6 408 39 118 157 0.38 -90 283 47 691 5.6 '05 9 Brian Lee TBL 5 209 5 31 36 0.17 -37 124 25 159 3.1 '06 1 Erik Johnson COL 5 329 27 104 131 0.40 -31 207 41 671 4.0 '07 5 Karl Alzner WSH 5 263 5 39 44 0.17 17 77 15 206 2.4 '07 10 Keaton Ellerby LAK 4 160 2 18 20 0.13 -16 86 22 129 1.6 '08 2 Drew Doughty LAK 5 364 49 135 184 0.51 18 283 57 689 7.1 '08 3 Zach Bogosian WPG 5 297 34 69 103 0.35 -42 237 47 635 5.4 '08 4 Alex Pietrangelo STL 3 224 29 92 121 0.54 25 73 24 470 6.2 '08 5 Luke Schenn PHI 5 357 17 69 86 0.24 -20 251 50 493 3.4 '09 2 Victor Hedman TBL 4 258 16 73 89 0.34 -8 245 61 349 4.6 '09 6 Oliver Ekman-Larsson PHX 3 178 17 50 67 0.38 8 82 27 298 5.7 '09 9 Jared Cowen OTT 2 90 6 12 18 0.20 -3 68 34 66 9.1 '10 3 Erik Gudbranson FLA 2 104 2 10 12 0.12 -41 125 63 125 1.6 '11 4 Adam Larsson NJD 2 102 2 22 24 0.24 -3 32 16 98 2.0 '11 9 Dougie Hamilton BOS 1 42 5 11 16 0.38 4 14 14 83 6.0 '11 10 Jonas Brodin MIN 1 45 2 9 11 0.24 3 10 10 51 3.9

That's good stuff but if you perform that same exercise with forwards drafted I believe you will find there are more and that they have a greater immediate positive impact.

[edslunch]

Originally Posted by toonmaster

Why is he not tradable? 27yr old center, one year left at $6MM, coming off a couple disappointing years of points production. I would think, any team with space to add him for next year, would look to make a reasonable deal. It gives the acquiring team a year to test him out before re-signing, dumping at the 2014 deadline, or cutting loose as a UFA. It all depends on what is reasonable and what Colorado is looking for in exchange.

$6MM and a couple of bad years reduce his trade value. Yes he's tradeable but not for a good DMan as is being suggested

[Diemenz]

Originally Posted by Walter Reed

If you perform that same exercise with forwards drafted I believe you will find there are more and that they have a greater immediate positive impact.

Define impact, your original comment was that Dmen take years to develop.

All I am saying is that this take longer to develop thing that keeps getting mentioned hasn't really applied to the last 10 years of Dman drafted in the top 10 as the vast majority tend be in the NHL within a year of their draft year.

If your implying however that forwards drafted in the last 10 years in the top 10 have scored more points then defensemen draft in the top 10 then your not going to find anyone to disagree with you...........its not very often that 1st-2st Dmen score more then 1st or 2nd line forwards.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by WilderPegasus

And what players did you see being franchise players leading up to their draft in previous years?



There's about a handful of players in the history of hockey that this might apply to and even then it is debatable.

The last one? Crosby. The next one? Possibly McDavid. All the rest? Just hype created by hockey junkies. You want to see the true value of a franchise player look at what Chris Pronger did for Edmonton. Not only elevated his play, but elevated the whole team. Success followed him around. Not many players like that.

[Machiavelli]

What I note from the story is the careful choice of wording; "leaning more toward."

It's non-committal. Won't look like they lied when they end up taking Jones.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by djsFlames

It's my undertanding that the brand of center that Lindholm plays in the SEL is different than what Monahan played here in north america. He only took 60-some odd faceoffs all season, apparently plays wing in certain situations. Kind of like what was going on with Cervenka. I think this has a factor in management's preference, and they would in turn do what it takes to get in position to take Monahan, if Barkov is out of reach.

He played wing in Sweden this year but projects as a centre long term and should be playing centre next season.

[toonmaster]

Originally Posted by edslunch

$6MM and a couple of bad years reduce his trade value. Yes he's tradeable but not for a good DMan as is being suggested

It was suggested a top pairing D-man. That's definately not reasonable. A 3-4 D-man? That could be reasonable. His trade value has definately been reduced from the 70pt (?) season he had. That would have commanded a top pairing D-man.

[cowtown75]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

He played wing in Sweden this year but projects as a centre long term and should be playing centre next season.

Says who ? If he just burnt a year playing wing, is that gonna make him a better centerman next year ? I think the point trying to be made was that Monahan IS a true centerman, not a guy who gets subbed in every now and again. The Flames need a true centerman, and one who is good and experienced at that position.

[sureLoss]

adater ‏@adater 12s Sakic talked a fair bit about Barkov. Could be the guy, we'll see

[OzSome]

Yeah right! I don't believe this for a second. I still think they will pick D Seth Jones. He is a big defenseman who happens to grow up in Denver. The guy got skill. The media in Denver is just trying to create something.

[$ven27]

Yeah, I don't believe this for a second and I doubt any GM does.

[OILFAN #81]

Originally Posted by sureLoss

adater ‏@adater 12s Sakic talked a fair bit about Barkov. Could be the guy, we'll see

If Sakic truly wants Barkov, he should trade with #3 at minimum (if not lower).

[Hockey_Ninja]

Originally Posted by Cali Flames Fan

Stastny is not that tradeable BTW. He hasn't been anywhere near a #1 center for at least a few seasons.

His production would go up significantly if he played on a line with Kessel.

[$ven27]

Originally Posted by Cali Flames Fan

Stastny is not that tradeable BTW. He hasn't been anywhere near a #1 center for at least a few seasons.

Stastny is very tradeable. He's been playing with scrubs for the past few seasons on the 2nd/3rd line, the last time he had a legitimate top 6 forward(Chris Stewart) to play with for a full season he had 75+ points. And considering he's entering the final year of his contract, I don't really see a team being too concerned about how much he makes.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by New Era

The last one? Crosby. The next one? Possibly McDavid. All the rest? Just hype created by hockey junkies. You want to see the true value of a franchise player look at what Chris Pronger did for Edmonton. Not only elevated his play, but elevated the whole team. Success followed him around. Not many players like that.

Sonds like you're talking about generational players, a whole level above franchise players.

[Walter Reed]

Interestingly, Bob Stauffer was pontificating today that the Av's might might be trying to acquire a second pick in the top 3 in order to select both MacKinnon and Halifax teammate Jonathan Drouin.

[oldschoolcalgary]

Originally Posted by OILFAN #81

If Sakic truly wants Barkov, he should trade with #3 at minimum (if not lower).

Barkov at number 1 would be a stunner. Agreed that the Avs would be smart to drop down if they want Barkov