Calgary offers picks 6, 22, 28 for the first overall: no dice

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by Caged Great

The problem is that we don't have enough supporting cast players as of yet in order to drop a superstar into in order to build a contender. A lot of teams try to get their star players first and then the supporting cast after (see Edmonton, NYI, Columbus with Nash etc.), but usually the star's contracts restricts their abilities to surround them properly. We will suck next year and likely the year after enough that we should get a MacKinnon or Drouin type prospect or two, which if you add those guys onto the 3 that we should get this year, it will mean that we'll have a big start on having a solid all round team that could then be on the verge of contending if everything is done right.

The thing is, superstar players typically do not switch teams that easily (hence why many get called "franchise players"). It's much more difficult to land 1 superstar than it is several depth players, especially in the cap world and with the 27 year old UFA age. Any time you have a chance to get a potential franchise player, you have to take it.

You also can't assume that we are going to get 3 NHL players in this draft. As pointed out earlier, the 22nd and 28th pick are anything but sure shots. There is a pretty good chance that we only get one out of all three picks, so why not have that one be the best player possible?

It's not like adding MacKinnon would instantly make us a playoff contender. We'd still have a few more years of building no matter what. These things don't play dividends right away.

[Caged Great]

I believe that we should get two NHLers of the 3 1st round picks. Usually prospects like the ones that should be available at 6 should make the NHL, and the ones at 22/28 are 50-50 at best. After that, we should likely get one guy out of the rest (each pick from the 3rd through 7th is about 15% so we have a better than even chance that one could pan out)

Usually, you have to draft talent, rather than acquire it through trade. You can add depth pieces, like we did with acquiring Knight, through trade, but 1st liners rarely come to your team from anywhere but the draft.

The problem we face is that we have more than one need. We need the supporting cast, and we need superstars. The teams that have acquired the supporting cast first have had vastly larger amounts of success (Canes 06, Ducks 07, Pens, Hawks, Bruins, and Kings winning cups) verse teams that get the stars first (Panthers, Oilers, Blue Jackets, Islanders etc.). The only reason why I have been saying that we should try for the supporting cast types first, is that the results have been significantly better doing it that way verse going for the star guys right now. Being patient and building the foundation strong makes the entire organization better, which leads to more and better opportunities for trades and signings.

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by Caged Great

Well, we did go on a winning streak on the back of having a bunch of rookies making their NHL debuts after Iginla/Bouwmeester left. Usually, rookies play good for their first couple of games and then trail off. Unfortunately, in terms of our current draft pick, we kept putting new guys in that kept the spark going. If the season was 82 games, we likely would have been 5-10 points worse than everyone else.

Unless we somehow rip off several other teams for legit stars or #6 + Baertschi put up huge numbers, I don't see how we'll be able to get enough points in the standings to be better than other teams. We have no starting goalie, only 3 legit nhl D-men (Gio, Wideman, and Brodie), and 4 second liners in Tanguay, Cammalleri, Glencross and Baertschi. Other than the maybe Panthers, I don't think anyone is worse than the Flames over an 82 game season. Luck can sway a team a bit, but usually a team that's as bad overall as the Flames usually falls in the bottom 5 give or take.

Our team is currently worse than the Oilers teams that kept getting #1.

You forgot about Hudler and a lesser extent Stempniak. Hudler is a long term high paid guy.... I don't think he or Stempniak ever was a fit with the Flames but a lot of folks on this board do and they will be playing 2nd-3rd line on some NHL team over the next 3-4 years.


When you go glass half full.... the Flames have an abundance of guys that will be making millions playing in the NHL over the Next 3 years,

Right now the Flames roster looks weaker than normal.... because they have dumped 19M in salary.... Iginla, Bouw and Kipper..... the roster will look a lot better when some of this money is spent..... Clarkson, Horton and Bernier would be a significant upgrade on 2012-13 Iginla - Bouw and Kipper. and would come in at a lot less than 19M.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

I'm not as convinced that we're a shoe in the next few years to get guys as good as MacKinnon/Barkov. Didn't this year show us how hard it is to get into the bottom 3? Our goaltending was absolutely abysmal and we still finished 6th last. I don't think we can count on a bottom 3 pick in either of the next two years. Any year we can trade up to take a guy that we think is a true franchise player I think you have to do it. The future holds no guarantees of franchise players.

I think that was a function of the short season - just not enough separation between teams.

Had the middle of the season (where poor teams tend to fade) been 30-40 games instead of 10, I think the Flames (and one or two other teams) would have fallen far enough behind the pack that winning a couple games at the end wouldn't have cost them 3 draft positions.

In an 82 game schedule, warts will become apparent.

The single biggest issue, that simply can't be kept contained over that many games, is weak goaltending. And it is a pretty safe bet that the Flames goaltending (and defense) will be mediocre at best for the next little while.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by Caged Great

I believe that we should get two NHLers of the 3 1st round picks. Usually prospects like the ones that should be available at 6 should make the NHL, and the ones at 22/28 are 50-50 at best. After that, we should likely get one guy out of the rest (each pick from the 3rd through 7th is about 15% so we have a better than even chance that one could pan out)

Usually, you have to draft talent, rather than acquire it through trade. You can add depth pieces, like we did with acquiring Knight, through trade, but 1st liners rarely come to your team from anywhere but the draft.

The problem we face is that we have more than one need. We need the supporting cast, and we need superstars. The teams that have acquired the supporting cast first have had vastly larger amounts of success (Canes 06, Ducks 07, Pens, Hawks, Bruins, and Kings winning cups) verse teams that get the stars first (Panthers, Oilers, Blue Jackets, Islanders etc.). The only reason why I have been saying that we should try for the supporting cast types first, is that the results have been significantly better doing it that way verse going for the star guys right now. Being patient and building the foundation strong makes the entire organization better, which leads to more and better opportunities for trades and signings.

This team hasn't had problems getting supporting cast over the years though... we've had trouble getting a #1 centre.

Recall Darryl Sutter's seven "20 goal scorers". Or back in the 1990s when the team always had enough 2nd and 3rd liners and defensive depth to hover above the basement and lacked a superstar to take them over the hump?

I think out of the 4 teams you listed, the Islanders are great example of what to expect actually. No one in their right mind should be expecting an ultra competetive team in the next 3 or 4 years (just as no Islanders fan should have expected Tavares to immediately pick the team up). They drafted Tavares and 3-4 years later are starting to show signs of being competetive. That is normal growth when starting from scratch as we will be. Now if Wang and Snow can use Tavares to their advantage and lure decent free agents. Good players want to play with great players and now that Tavares has established himself as a great player, it should go a long way to helping them add more pieces.

Even with the Flames, we had a lot more trouble luring and keeping good players before Iginla established himself. This is why so many rebuilding teams have false starts. If no one establishes themselves as a player to build around, the rest of the building process is more difficult.

With Edmonton, Florida and Columbus, I think it just goes to show you the advantage/disadvantage certain drafts have for producing elite players. All had their fair share of busts, so when something as close to a sure-thing as MacKinnon, Jones and Drouin come along, you need to try and capitalize on it as elite players are extremely rare (not every draft produces one IMO). To be fair to Edmonton, the jury is still out. Their young core is still in the early stages.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by atb

If you look at the last 4 teams to win the Cup, all except for Boston (I'm excluding Seguin) had a top 3 pick impact player in the lineup. Doughty, Kane, Toewes, Crosby, Malkin, Fleury. It's possible build a contending team without these top picks, but it's much more difficult and requires extremely good (and lucky) drafting. Boston and the Detroit are good examples of building a contender through FA and the late draft picks. I'm not saying that having a top pick guarantees a contender alone, (as LA, Chicago, also Pittsburgh also have done well with their later picks) but it can make a difference between being a good team and being a cup contending team.

If the Flames are in the position to trade up and get that impact player in MacKinnon this year, then I really hope they do. It takes 2-3 years for a top pick to start playing an impact role, over that time they can add the supporting players through drafts, trades, and FA.

I think your reasoning is flawed. If you actually look at all the teams that have won the cup since the NHL's New Deal you'll see an interesting trend. Here's a look at each team and the players on their cup winning rosters that they drafted. The year and pick number is after each player.

Carolina (2006)
Cullen (1996, 35)
Cole (1998, 71)
Vasicek (1998, 61)
Wallin (2000, 97)
Ward (2002, 25)
Staal (2003, 2)
Ladd (2004, 4)


Carolina had two top five picks, and both of them were late in their quest for the cup. Much of the ground work had been laid for the team that won the cup. Most of the players that contributed to that cup team were acquired through trade or free agency, but of the draft picks that were on the team, the supposed top five picks so important to winning were made late in the game when the depth had already been established.


Anaheim (2007)
McDonald (undrafted, 2000)
Kunitz (undrafted, 2003)
Getzlaf (2003, 19)
Perry (2003, 28)
O’Brien (2003, 250)
Penner (undrafted, 2004)


Like the Hurricanes most of the players that contributed to the victory were acquired through trade or free agency. Not one of the players they drafted or signed was a top five pick for the Ducks. They had a top five pick playing in the system in Bobby Ryan, but he did not play until the following year. What all Flames fans should note is that the Ducks two most important forwards, Getzlaf and Perry, were drafted at 19 and 28. Flames have 21 and 28 this draft. The players can be there if your scouts do their job..


Detroit (2008)
Lidstrom (1989, 53)
Drake (1989, 116)
Holmstrom (1994, 257)
Datsyuk (1998, 171)
Zetterberg (1999, 210)
Kronwall (2000, 29)
Kopecky (2000, 38)
Lilja (2000, 54)
Hudler (2002, 58)
Filppula (2002, 95)
Lebda (undrafted, 2003)
Franzen (2004, 97)


Detroit is just an incredible team. Not a single top five pick. Not a single player taken in the first round earlier than 29 who played for this team, where 12 players came through the draft.


Pittsburgh (2009)
Scuderi (1994, 138)
Orpik (2000, 18)
Whitney (2002, 5)
Talbot (2002, 234)
Malkin (2004, 2)
Kennedy (2004, 99)
Goligoski (2004, 61)
Crosby (2005, 1) *Generational talent*
Letang (2005, 62)
Staal (2006, 2)


Pittsburgh actually seems to be the outlier here. They did draft several players early, but they also built their team on those top five picks. They were fortunate enough to have the NHL drop a generational talent in their lap in the middle of those three top two picks. Some depth had already been drafted, especially on the back end, but the top picks helped the Penguins become a power.


Chicago (2010)
Keith (2002, 54)
Burish (2002, 282)
Seabrook (2003, 14)
Byfuglein (2003, 245)
Bolland (2004, 32)
Bickell (2004, 41)
Brower (2004, 214)
Hjalmarsson (2005, 108)
Hendry (undrafted, 2005)
Toews (2006, 3)
Kane (2007, 1)


There is no doubt that the success model that lead to Chicago's success was the development of depth early on. Toews and Kane were important players to the championship team, but the 9 players drafted or signed prior to them being drafted was probably more important. Again, the high draft picks came after the foundation was established through earlier drafts.


Boston (2011)
Bergeron (2003, 45)
Krejci (2004, 63)
Lucic (2006, 50)
Marchand (2006, 71)
Seguin (2010, 2)


The Bruins are a hybrid of the earlier success stories. Many of their key players came through trade. Seguin was actually a result of a shrewd trade using a #5 pick from 2006 to develop depth and get the #2 in 2010. The important young players that would become the core up front were all draft picks after the first round and before the Seguin top five pick was selected.


Los Angeles (2012)
Brown (2003, 13)
Kopitar (2005, 11)
Lewis (2006, 17)
King (2007, 109)
Martinez (2007, 95)
Doughty (2008, 2)
Voyonov (2008, 32)
Loktionov (2008, 123)
Clifford (2009, 35)
Nolan (2009, 186)


Los Angles was another team that had laid the foundation by having lots of good players in the system from previous drafts before getting a crack at that top five draft pick.


What I see in all of this is that it is wise to understand the plight of your team and maximize your opportunities. This is the draft to find some depth. Three picks in the top 28, and one just outside the top five, should provide opportunity to grab three pretty good players. This team will be bad while these players develop, meaning the Flames will have other opportunities to draft top five in the near future. They will get that top five guy. There is no need to rush it and try and draft a guy with no one to support them. In the capped NHL it is best to have the depth available to leverage the early years of that top five player anyways. You want to take advantage of the cheap years of the young early pick before his salary eats up a huge chunk of your payroll. So, draft depth while you can, knowing that top five player will come in the next two or three years.

[SebC]

Originally Posted by New Era

So, draft depth while you can, knowing that top five player will come in the next two or three years.

How do we know that Brodie, Jankowski, Baertschi, and Gaudreau aren't the depth players we need to add the top five pick to?

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by SebC

How do we know that Brodie, Jankowski, Baertschi, and Gaudreau aren't the depth players we need to add the top five pick to?

Because it defies probability for all (or even most) prospects to reach their maximum potential.

[Caged Great]

Originally Posted by SebC

How do we know that Brodie, Jankowski, Baertschi, and Gaudreau aren't the depth players we need to add the top five pick to?

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

Because it defies probability for all (or even most) prospects to reach their maximum potential.

Plus even if they were, they are far enough away that by adding even more quality players to that group will make the likelihood of building a cup winner more likely. Jankowski isn't going to be in the NHL likely for another two seasons, and Gaudreau is likely going to sign after this upcoming season. #6 should be in the NHL this year (unless it's Lindholm) and the other two picks should be coming in around the same time as Jankowski if they reach.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by SebC

How do we know that Brodie, Jankowski, Baertschi, and Gaudreau aren't the depth players we need to add the top five pick to?

That's four guys. How about the rest of the team and some organizational depth?

[Flash Walken]

It is never a bad thing to grab a franchise potential player in the top 5 of the draft if you can.

However, if you are so woefully lacking in legitimate, projected NHL prospects, I think it behoves you to draft with as many picks as you can.

I'm not unhappy they tried to trade into the top 3, but I am a bit relieved they haven't overpaid significantly for the opportunity to do so.

The Flames tried to draft around a franchise player/superstar. Time to try drafting a superstar around quality NHL depth.

[Enoch Root]

acquire as many valuable assets as possible.

then determine which ones fit your team and use the rest to acquire missing pieces / quality

quality over quantity is great, but the Flames don't yet have the quantity with which to use to go get quality

great that we were able to grab Knight, now let's go get 3 first-rounders - next year, same thing

[TurdFerguson]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

It is never a bad thing to grab a franchise potential player in the top 5 of the draft if you can.

However, if you are so woefully lacking in legitimate, projected NHL prospects, I think it behoves you to draft with as many picks as you can.

I'm not unhappy they tried to trade into the top 3, but I am a bit relieved they haven't overpaid significantly for the opportunity to do so.

The Flames tried to draft around a franchise player/superstar. Time to try drafting a superstar around quality NHL depth.