Arm-Chair GM: Three 1st round picks for Nate McKinnon

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by moon

I have been listening and reading and haven't heard that at all. I have heard there isn't a consensus number 1 guy but that is because it is between MacKinnon and Jones, not because the guys below the top 3 are so close to them. MacKinnon is head and shoulders above the second tier of Centers in this draft (Barkov, Monahan and Lindholm) for sure.



Kane and Kariya were top 5 picks so when those things were said about them people still saw enough to think they would be able to be successful at the NHL level. Gaudreau was a 3rd round pick who even after the "special" seasons he has had barely cracked the TSN top 50 prospects list.

Expecting Gaudreau to be Kariya or Kane is setting up for disappointment and thinking that is legit to say that you are giving up a Staal and Kariya when talking about Monahan and Gaudreau is ridiculous.

So it's okay to say that McKinnon is a lock to be a special player, or to use a high end comparison, but not the other players mentioned? I guess I just have to ask, what happened to this special player at the world juniors? I thought McKinnon was a massive disappointment at this tournament. Now before you trot out the pat "it's a 19 year olds tournament" why did players like Drouin, Barkov and others perform above expectation while McKinnon did not? I get the McKinnon love, I really do, but there are question marks about him just as there are about other players. Opportunity has a lot to do with it, but great players make their opportunities. A player like Gaudreau continues to make opportunities and force you to recognize him. That is why the Flames continue to field calls about his availability. McKinnon had me concerned until his Memorial Cup performance, but I still have concerns about his world junior performance. I'm not sold on him and would prefer we built on our prospect pool, not give a chunk of it away to get a player with a lot of hype and facing the same challenges as other draft picks.

[atb]

Regardless of what scouts and analysts say prior to a draft, we can look to the historical results to see what a 1-3 pick gets you vs a 5-7 pick:

1st - 3rd Overall Picks From 2000-2010:
Taylor Hall
Tyler Seguin
Erik Gudbranson
John Tavares
Victor Hedman
Matt Duchene
Steven Stamkos
Drew Doughty
Zach Bogosian
Patrick Kane
James Van Riemsdyk
Kyle Turris
Erik Johnson
Jordan Staal
Jonathan Toews
Sidney Crosby
Bobby Ryan
Jack Johnson
Alexander Ovechkin
Evgeni Malkin
Cam Barker
Marc-Andre Fleury
Eric Staal
Nathan Horton
Rick Nash
Kari Lehtonen
Jay Bouwmeester
Ilya Kovalchuk
Jason Spezza
Alexandr Svitov
Rick DiPietro
Dany Heatley
Marian Gaborik

5th - 7th Overall Picks From 2000-2010:
Nino Niederreiter
Brett Connolly
Jeff Skinner
Brayden Schenn
Oliver Ekman-Larsson
Nazem Kadri
Luke Schenn
Nikita Filatov
Colin Wilson
Karl Alzner
Sam Gagner
Jakub Voracek
Phil Kessel
Derick Brassard
Kyle Okposo
Carey Price
Gilbert Brule
Jack Skille
Blake Wheeler
Al Montoya
Rostislav Olesz
Thomas Vanek
Milan Michalek
Ryan Suter
Ryan Whitney
Scottie Upshall
Joffrey Lupul
Stanislav Chistov
Mikko Koivu
Mike Komisarek
Raffi Torres
Scott Hartnell
Lars Jonsson


Comparing the top 3 picks to the 5th-7th picks, how many franchise players are in the 2nd list? Carey Price and Ryan Suter?

Banking on our 6th pick to be a Jordan Staal (who was taken 2nd overall in 2006), and Gaudreau to be Paul Kariya (picked 4th overall) seems to be a stretch. While picking MacKinnon doesn't guarantee anything, you certainly have a much higher chance of getting a franchise center to build around.

As for ending up in the same situation where we didn't have enough depth around Iginla, as we've seen the past 10 years it's significantly harder to acquire a franchise C through FA or trades than it is to pick up an elite winger.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by New Era

So it's okay to say that McKinnon is a lock to be a special player, or to use a high end comparison, but not the other players mentioned? I guess I just have to ask, what happened to this special player at the world juniors? I thought McKinnon was a massive disappointment at this tournament. Now before you trot out the pat "it's a 19 year olds tournament" why did players like Drouin, Barkov and others perform above expectation while McKinnon did not? I get the McKinnon love, I really do, but there are question marks about him just as there are about other players. Opportunity has a lot to do with it, but great players make their opportunities. A player like Gaudreau continues to make opportunities and force you to recognize him. That is why the Flames continue to field calls about his availability. McKinnon had me concerned until his Memorial Cup performance, but I still have concerns about his world junior performance. I'm not sold on him and would prefer we built on our prospect pool, not give a chunk of it away to get a player with a lot of hype and facing the same challenges as other draft picks.

Well plenty of amazing NHLers couldn't even make that tournament at age 17. He was playing out of position on a grinding line. I think you are putting far too much stock into that tournament. I believe he had a hat trick in the U-18's the year before playing against players closer to his age.

I think the performance of Jones and Drouin and Barkov at the WJC's is a nice positive for them but I don't think MacKinnon's performance at the WJC is any reason to think less of him.

If you're not sold on him then I'd say you haven't seen him enough. Not many question marks on this kid at all.

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by atb

Banking on our 6th pick to be a Jordan Staal (who was taken 2nd overall in 2006), and Gaudreau to be Paul Kariya (picked 4th overall) seems to be a stretch. While picking MacKinnon doesn't guarantee anything, you certainly have a much higher chance of getting a franchise center to build around.

Exactly. People are getting giddy and translating "Jordan Stall type player" into "likely to develop into Jordan Staal." Sorry, there's likely only a handful of forwards in the entire draft this year who will develop into as good a player as Jordan Staal. There are not 10 number one centers coming out of this draft. There are maybe 2, and then around 3-4 2nd line centers. And some of those are going to come out of the later rounds.

The reality is only a fraction of picks reach their full potential. That's why it typically takes years and lots of top-5 and top-10 picks to draft an elite core.

[bubbsy]

Originally Posted by atb

Regardless of what scouts and analysts say prior to a draft, we can look to the historical results to see what a 1-3 pick gets you vs a 5-7 pick:
...
...

Yikes.

[Igster]

Originally Posted by bubbsy

Yikes.

Exactly.

Thanks atb...I went from being excited about having the 6th overall pick to well, not so much...

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by atb

Regardless of what scouts and analysts say prior to a draft, we can look to the historical results to see what a 1-3 pick gets you vs a 5-7 pick:

Except if this is a historically above average year in terms of depth than the 5-7 picks could be closer to a 1-3 pick in an average or below average year.

[Igster]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

Except if this is a historically above average year in terms of depth than the 5-7 picks could be closer to a 1-3 pick in an average or below average year.

[Mean Mr. Mustard]

Originally Posted by New Era

So a potential Backstrom or Staal, a potential Kariya, and a pick in the 21 slot is worth giving up for a potential Toews?

Flames should keep what they have and build toward a great team instead of worrying about a potential superstar to replace the one we just lost. We're better off with three really solid players than one star. Or did we learn nothing from the last 16 years?

Do you mean Steve or Paul Kariya, because right now it could go either way. I think that the Flames would be better off with a sure-fire elite player to centre Baertschi.

[Mean Mr. Mustard]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

Except if this is a historically above average year in terms of depth than the 5-7 picks could be closer to a 1-3 pick in an average or below average year.

I think I hear that same thing every year where it is going to be an above average year. The sexy, unknown element always boosts up peoples expectations of the young kids.

[macrov]

Granted, this is a biased view, but here are some highlights:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eHq-oSTUoaY

Amazing...

[atb]

Originally Posted by Igster

Exactly.

Thanks atb...I went from being excited about having the 6th overall pick to well, not so much...

Hah, it's not all doom and gloom. There are still some really good players that are picked in that range, Skinner, Kadri, Voracek, Wheeler, Vanek, Michalek, Lupul, Hartnell, and more. It's just that your less likely to get a true franchise player in that range without a bit of luck. It's a lot less murky in the top 3, with a higher rate of success.

[atb]

And just to take it a step further, from the list of 1st-3rd overall picks from 2000-2010, here's the Centers that were taken:

Tyler Seguin
John Tavares
Matt Duchene
Steven Stamkos
Kyle Turris
Jordan Staal
Jonathan Toews
Sidney Crosby
Evgeni Malkin
Eric Staal
Nathan Horton
Rick Nash
Jason Spezza
Alexandr Svitov

Not a bad list.

[moon]

[QUOTE=New Era;4266731]

So it's okay to say that McKinnon is a lock to be a special player, or to use a high end comparison, but not the other players mentioned?

I don't think that MacKinnon is a lock by any means but he sure looks a lot more certain than anyone else in the draft. I like Monahan and Lindholm and would be fine with either of them but I do find it very unlikely that the 6th pick over all is going to score over a 100 points in a season and be arguably a top 10 player in the league (Staal) or that Gaudreau is going to be one of the top offensive players of his generation and at the quality that, if Canadian, would be a consistent member of the Canadian Olympic team (Kariya).

I guess I just have to ask, what happened to this special player at the world juniors? I thought McKinnon was a massive disappointment at this tournament. Now before you trot out the pat "it's a 19 year olds tournament" why did players like Drouin, Barkov and others perform above expectation while McKinnon did not?

What happened was he was an underage junior playing behind 4 NHL quality centers and Drouin and Barkov because of position and country were given much bigger roles. No reason to think that MacKinnon wouldn't have done better than Barkov based on his performance in other major tournaments in which he shined.

I get the McKinnon love, I really do, but there are question marks about him just as there are about other players.

No argument there. But he also has much fewer questions than anyone else in the draft.

[StrykerSteve]

It's sad that Flames fans are too young to know what it's like to have an actual franchise Center.

All many of you know is Iginla, and that's nowhere near the same thing.

If someone trades you MacKinnon for 3 first rounders.... You f'ing DO IT.

I'm amazed this is even being debated here. A true franchise Center is PRICELESS. Monahan is not in the same league, nor are Barkov or Lindholm.

[dammage79]

Originally Posted by StrykerSteve

It's sad that Flames fans are too young to know what it's like to have an actual franchise Center.

All many of you know is Iginla, and that's nowhere near the same thing.

If someone trades you MacKinnon for 3 first rounders.... You f'ing DO IT.

I'm amazed this is even being debated here. A true franchise Center is PRICELESS. Monahan is not in the same league, nor are Barkov or Lindholm.

Hey, do you uh, ya know, like MacKinnon or something?

[StrykerSteve]

Hehe is it that obvious? I was hoping I was being coy.

[CSharp]

This is supposed to be a deep draft, especially for the 1st round. So, why waste the 3 first rounder to get the first or second overall pick when you can get 3 quality picks anyway? Unless Seth Jones or McKinnon is a definite Bobby Orr or Gretzky/Lemieux prospect where you'd give up your whole franchise for, why even bother? You can't build a team based on one player nowadays. You need to build a team over several years of tanking and keep getting good picks. Plus, 80%+ Flames fans don't deserve to have another superstar in the Flames lineup until they realize that shipping out your older superstars for a rebuild every year just doesn't happen over night. Reality is, Flames are gonna be rebuilding for several years. It'll be interesting at the draft and the free agency this year.

[ComixZone]

If we can move up to 1st or 2nd overall, I'd be willing to part with anything outside of Baertschi, Brodie or the 2014 1st round pick. Everything else should be, and likely will be on the table.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by StrykerSteve

It's sad that Flames fans are too young to know what it's like to have an actual franchise Center.

All many of you know is Iginla, and that's nowhere near the same thing.

If someone trades you MacKinnon for 3 first rounders.... You f'ing DO IT.

I'm amazed this is even being debated here. A true franchise Center is PRICELESS. Monahan is not in the same league, nor are Barkov or Lindholm.

Grandpa, can you tell us again about that time your teeth fell out at the restaurant and dropped right into your soup bowl, splashing chicken noodles all over Grandma's dress?