Flames 2013 Draft Discussion

[nik-]

Lindholm and Baertschi as the faces of the franchise!

[cowtown75]

Originally Posted by The Original FFIV

I want our picks to be players that hate to lose. Some of the names out there scare me, including Mantha and Gauthier. I want the team to draft players wbo bring it every night and have a high compete level. Not interested in drafting the next Rene Bourque who 'could' be a player 'if' he puts it all together.

I agree fully. Hearing the names Gauthier and Mantha being thrown around so much scares the crap out of me. I get that they are both big, but, to me, Gauthier looks clumsey and not very offensively spectacular. To me, that's all he seems to bring to the table- being big. I love the Rene Bourque reference as it relates to Mantha.

[Dagger]

Originally Posted by GGG

So you perferred Sutters Drafting philosophy over the current regime? It was filled with taking the Safe Pick.

I love the Jankowski pick. They picked the High potential guy over the more sure things (keeping in mind that the other "Sure Things" are at best 50/50 shots of playing in the NHL let alone meeting their potential)

No, that's not at all what I meant. What I'm saying is that a prospect like Jankowski is either going to become a top 6 player, maybe even a first line player, or become nothing. He's not as advanced in his development curve because of his young age and recent growth spurt, so it's easy to say "if he turns outworks we have something here." But then you have to look and see that his level of competition was putrid so it's hard to properly gauge him. Now, obviously the next component is weighing the risk factor of taking such a prospect against somebody that is more polished with respect to where you are drafting.

In essence the Jankowski is at the very opposite end of the spectrum of the prospect Sutter drafted. As you say Sutter went for the less glamorous, hard workers that were considered to have a good shot of being 2nd or 3rd liners but nothing else. There was no upside more or less. Feaster went for the ultimate boom or bust player, in what's almost prospect roulette as he's gambling that a lot of things wo rk out for Jankowski(and if they do he's a genius). But in many cases, drafting a player that lies somewhere in the middle of the two is the best bet. With Sutter you look at him grabbing the likes of Chucko, Pelech, Irving, and Nemisz sub 20 who are all decently close to fitting either end of the spectrum. None have panned out. Compare that to him grabbing Erixon and Backlund, two guys who were solid bets to make it in the NHL and had 2nd line/top 4 upside being realistic. Unsurprisingly those two are Sutter's best late first round picks.

Sven isn't much different than that, as when we grabbed him many tabbed him as having a good chance of making the NHL combined with fringe 1st/elite 2nd line potential should he pan out - of course with him being selected much higher the scale of reward/bust is lowered but the philosophy still stands. Compare taking him with an Oleksiak or McNeil(one's a project the other a safe bet)...how'd we come out?

Now I'm in no way saying that projects always bust(because some do pan out) or that taking a safe guy is always terrible(sometimes you do need NHL ready bodies fairly soon) or that scouting reports in are always right or whatever you wanna throw at me. I know drafting isn't an exact science and that there is always a bit of luck involved(namely with injuries) but I do think that the best in the league at adding talent are unsurprisingly the best at playing the probability game when selecting players, and taking guys that have solid upside combined with a decent floor(both relative to draft position) is the way to go generally speaking. Having said that I know that there is a time and a place to take players like Jankowski, but in my opinion doing something like that in the first when you really need to start churning out above average players isn't worth the risk.

[moon]

Originally Posted by Dagger

No, that's not at all what I meant. What I'm saying is that a prospect like Jankowski is either going to become a top 6 player, maybe even a first line player, or become nothing.

Why is this when it seems like the biggest question mark at this point is his offensive ability at the NHL level?

Why can he not be a 3rd or 4th line center at the NHL level?

It seems people have bought way too much into the boom or bust label of Jankowski when he likely isn't any different from the other guys around him in terms of being a top 6, bootm 6 or non-NHLer.

[868904]

Originally Posted by cowtown75

I agree fully. Hearing the names Gauthier and Mantha being thrown around so much scares the crap out of me. I get that they are both big, but, to me, Gauthier looks clumsey and not very offensively spectacular. To me, that's all he seems to bring to the table- being big. I love the Rene Bourque reference as it relates to Mantha.

Ryan Hartman and JT Compher would be good picks if you want competitive fire and intensity.

[cowtown75]

Originally Posted by 868904

Ryan Hartman and JT Compher would be good picks if you want competitive fire and intensity.

Much agreed, but I would prefer guys with more offensive upside like Zykov and Rychel as we lack pure goal scorers who also work their butts off. Drafting guys who are projected as good 2-way guys who may or may not make the top 6 doesn't excite me for a first round selection- especially when it's already being said before they are even drafted. I think the first round should be dedicated to pure skill with high offensive upside with high compete level. Natural talents if you will. I think really good grinders with decent offensive upsides should be left for later rounds- But that's just my strategy and opinion.

[Calgary4LIfe]

I don't think Jankowski is that much of a 'boom/bust' type of prospect. They guy has size.

Many fans will continue to compare him to Teravaien because of 2 things:
1) Position - both were centers
2) Teravainen was available when the Flames traded down.

Teravainen is as far from making the NHL as Jankowski is. Also, people are now speculating that he will just not cut it as a center due to his size, and that he will probably not be a 1st line guy. However, this is the first I have heard of him being a 3rd liner. Seems to be one of those players that are either top 6 or bust.

Jankowski on the other hand, still projects to be a top-line center. I don't think his first season in the NCAA was at all disappointing. He still managed to get just over .5PPG, and on an offensively inept squad after all. This after his HUGE jump in competition, getting used to systems play, getting used to his huge growth spurt, and also being one of the youngest (or was he the absolute youngest?) players in the NCAA. Taking everything into consideration, I thought he had a heck of a first season.

Neither prospect is a guarantee at this point. Only time will tell which prospect will have the better career (if either of them do at all). I HATED when we passed on Teravainen.. but I instantly smiled as Feaster selected Jankowski. Skill AND size in a center? Tough combo to beat. A 'home run' gamble was exactly what the Flames needed in their stable. The other player people will associate with Jankowski is Maatta. Sure, it would be nice to have him in the stable right now, but Maatta will be a good defencemen, never a 'great' one that can really impact a team consistently. Jankowski COULD be someone that does.

I don't think the Flames were 'gambling' or going off the board that much with Jankowski - it isn't like he was some 3rd round reach. Most lists had him in the top 45. Scouts were commentating on how difficult it is to gauge a player like Jankowski due to the quality of competition. Anyone see the draft re-ranking from last year (I think by TSN) that polled a bunch of different scouts? He made the cut for the 1st round, and that says something about the year he had in the NCAA.

Now for this draft..

I am warming up more and more to Monahan. The one thing I really love about MacKinnon is his non-stop motor. Monahan (though slower and obviously less skilled) has that same motor, plus size, leadership, face-off ability and other nice things to have in a center. I can't really decide between Lindholm and Monahan, and it seems that with every new piece I end up reading about each prospect, I end up jumping back and forth between them.

[Matty81]

Janko has size, skates real well and plays a premium position. He's gonna get at least a cup of coffee in the NHL, I agree that he's not boom/bust... the big thing with him is that he was a pick that requires so much patience. I'd still prefer him over Teravainen.

He was 17 when he got drafted and built like napolean dynamite. Last year he was 17/18 during his first NCAA season, a full year younger than most freshmen and 5 years younger than the seniors he was playing against. He will be 21 after four years of school in 2016 and is unlikely to turn pro before 2015 at the absolute earliest so he's going to take a long time.

Next season when he turns 19 would be his freshman year for most guys physically and I think he'll take a step forward but I think it will be 2014/15 when he really starts to excel.

[Dagger]

Originally Posted by moon

Why is this when it seems like the biggest question mark at this point is his offensive ability at the NHL level?

Why can he not be a 3rd or 4th line center at the NHL level?

It seems people have bought way too much into the boom or bust label of Jankowski when he likely isn't any different from the other guys around him in terms of being a top 6, bootm 6 or non-NHLer.

Maybe he could be, but if he grows into his frame and learns how to use it then coupled with the fact that he's shown slick hands and good vision(which at the time was against lesser competition) then he'll be an impact player. On the other hand if he doesn't grow into his frame he'll get murdered by the bigger and stronger men at the next level. It's much more likely that he fails because he doesn't fill out/loses effectiveness at a higher weight than it is he fails because of his hands. That's why many think he's either an impact guy or a colossal bust.

[Erick Estrada]

I could see Jankowski being a poor man's Jordan Staal. 3rd line center that can fill in a 2nd or even 1st line role if required by injuries. IMO it's a bit much to expect such a raw player to become an elite 1st line center.

[Matty81]

Filling out isn't really a major concern to me, it happens to everyone, let alone kids who are focused on it. My concern watching him this year was that he seemed a bit afraid of traffic... I understand he's thinner but hopefully for him and the Flames that little bit of timidness in his game is just a function of age and uncertainty.

He's got the wheels and the puck handling ability to be really good but especially as a centre he'll need to go into the dirty areas behind and in front of the net without fear to excel.

Also hoping the friars recruit some decent offensive players this off season, they only had 3 guys who scored more than 20 points last year and one graduated. Could be a rough year next year offensively. If anybody knows how to look up US college hockey recruits that would be cool to see.

[nik-]

He needs to start playing Centre first.

[Canada 02]

Originally Posted by Matty81

Filling out isn't really a major concern to me, it happens to everyone, let alone kids who are focused on it. My concern watching him this year was that he seemed a bit afraid of traffic... I understand he's thinner but hopefully for him and the Flames that little bit of timidness in his game is just a function of age and uncertainty.

He's got the wheels and the puck handling ability to be really good but especially as a centre he'll need to go into the dirty areas behind and in front of the net without fear to excel.

Also hoping the friars recruit some decent offensive players this off season, they only had 3 guys who scored more than 20 points last year and one graduated. Could be a rough year next year offensively. If anybody knows how to look up US college hockey recruits that would be cool to see.

College hockey recruits

http://collegehockeyinc.com/stats/commitments.php

[Matty81]

Originally Posted by Canada 02

College hockey recruits

http://collegehockeyinc.com/stats/commitments.php

Thanks for that. Anybody good in there for the Friars that you know of?

[handgroen]

Originally Posted by cowtown75

I agree fully. Hearing the names Gauthier and Mantha being thrown around so much scares the crap out of me. I get that they are both big, but, to me, Gauthier looks clumsey and not very offensively spectacular. To me, that's all he seems to bring to the table- being big. I love the Rene Bourque reference as it relates to Mantha.

really?...because i love the getzlaf comparison as it relates to mantha.

[dammage79]

Havent seen this yet but its the updated ISS rankings as of today.

1 MacKinnon, Nathan C 9/1/1995 R 6.00 182 Halifax QMJHL

2 Jones, Seth RD 10/3/1994 R 6.03.5 208 Portland WHL

3 Drouin, Jonathan C 3/27/1995 L 5.10.75 185 Halifax QMJHL

4 Nichushkin, Valery F 3/4/1995 L 6.04 202 Chelyabinsk Traktor KHL

5 Barkov, Sasha F 9/2/1995 L 6.03 209 Tappara FinE

6 Nurse, Darnell LD 2/4/1995 L 6.03.5 189 S.S. Marie OHL

7 Lindholm, Elias C 12/2/1994 R 6.00 192 Brynas SweE

8 Zadorov, Nikita LD 4/15/1995 L 6.05.25 230 London OHL

9 Monahan, Sean C 10/12/1994 L 6.02 186 Ottawa OHL

10 Horvat, Bo C 4/5/1995 L 6.00.25 200 London OHL

11 Ristolainen, Rasmus RD 10/27/1994 R 6.04 207 TPS Turku FinE

12 Lazar, Curtis C 2/2/1995 R 5.11.75 193 Edmonton WHL

13 Shinkaruk, Hunter C 10/13/1994 L 5.11 175 Medicine Hat WHL

14 Pulock, Ryan RD 10/6/1994 R 6.00.5 211 Brandon WHL

15 Wennberg, Alexander C 9/22/1994 L 6.01.5 190 Djurgarden SweJE

16 Burakowsky, Andre LW 2/9/1995 L 6.01.5 178 Malmo SweAl

17 Santini, Steve RD 3/7/1995 R 6.01.5 207 USA Under-18 NTDP

18 Gauthier, Frederik C 4/26/1995 L 6.05 210 Rimouski QMJHL

19 Zykov, Valentin RW 5/15/1995 R 6.00 210 Baie-Comeau QMJHL

20 Rychel, Kerby LW 10/7/1994 L 6.01 200 Windsor OHL

21 Morrissey, Joshua LD 3/28/1995 L 5.11.75 182 Prince Albert WHL

22 Bowey, Madison RD 4/22/1995 R 6.00.75 200 Kelowna WHL

23 Mantha, Anthony LW 9/16/1994 L 6.04 190 Val-d'Or QMJHL

24 Compher, JT C 4/8/1995 R 5.10.5 184 USA Under-18 NTDP

25 Domi, Max C 3/2/1995 L 5.09.25 193 London OHL

26 Petan, Nic C 3/22/1995 L 5.08.5 163 Portland WHL

27 Heatherington, Dillon LD 5/9/1995 L 6.03 196 Swift Current WHL

28 McCarron, Michael RW 3/7/1995 R 6.05 228 USA Under-18 NTDP

29 Bigras, Chris LD 2/22/1995 L 6.00.5 189 Owen Sound OHL

30 Morin, Samuel LD 7/12/1995 L 6.07 200 Rimouski QMJHL


If 19-22 holds up we may have a shot at Zykov or Rychel. While snagging Hartman or Mueller with the Pittsburgh pick.

[Pierre "Monster" McGuire]

New ISS Top 30:

1. MacKinnon
2. Jones
3. Drouin
4. Nichushkin
5. Barkov
6. Nurse
7. Lindholm
8. Zadorov
9. Monahan
10. Horvat
11. Ristolainen
12. Lazar
13. Shinkurak
14. Pulock
15. Wennberg
16. Burakowsky
17. Santini
18. Gauthier
19. Zykov
20. Rychel
21. Morrissey
22. Bowey
23. Mantha
24. Compher
25. Domi
26. Petan
27. Heatherington
28. McCarron
29. Bigras
30. Morin

EDIT - Beaten to it by that jerk dammage...

[Hockey_Ninja]

God i would love it if Bakrov fell to 6.

[dammage79]

Originally Posted by Hockey_Ninja

God i would love it if Bakrov fell to 6.

Amen to that brother.

[OILFAN #81]

Seems like Nichushkin will go either #3 to TB or Carolina at #5. I'm thinking Lindholm will be a Flame and Monahan an Oiler.