I actually think that if Rutherford ran he would get squashed.
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I'm hoping somebody who is a credible threat runs because I think it makes for a more interesting campaign. However, I don't think it's especially likely to happen because anybody who would be credible won't want to risk their credibility on something that'd be a long shot to win.
Rutherford makes sense only if he thinks this is his last chance to make a splash due to age, and he's always wanted to hold important public office or something.
For those interested - a look inside the place I work every day - The Mayor's Office. Not really election related, but the place where whoever wins the Mayoralty will get to work after October 21st. It's a nice place spend each day - sometimes some very long hours.
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Trust the snake.
Last edited by Bunk; 05-09-2013 at 11:34 AM.
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For those interested - a look inside the place I work every day - The Mayor's Office. Not really election related, but the place where whoever wins the Mayoralty will get to work after October 21st. It's a nice place spend each day - sometimes some very long hours.
I have a photo of me sitting at Nenshi's desk.
If Rutherford ran, he'd get killed. Absolutely killed! He might stand a puncher's chance if he ran for councillor/alderman, but not for mayor. Nenshi is virtually unbeatable this fall and Rutherford is not credible enough.
If Rutherford ran, he'd get killed. Absolutely killed! He might stand a puncher's chance if he ran for councillor/alderman, but not for mayor. Nenshi is virtually unbeatable this fall and Rutherford is not credible enough.
Just curious, is there anyone you think that would be credible enough? I couldn't think of anyone who would consider running that I'd vote for over Nenshi, but I'd be interested to hear what others think.
Pretty sure Rutherford is a WA guy and hates Redford. Course you were probably being sarcastic.
Dunno how good he would be at communications to be honest. Biggest part of that is getting a cohesive and welcoming message out. He'd really have to tone it down to do that. Sure he'd get a bunch of people on the band wagon through his usual attacks and disgust, but he'd probably piss even more off.
While there will always be a few people like that, Canada doesn't make people like Rush Limbaugh as powerful as our neighbours do. Just not enough people liking the message and constant bitterness.
Unless you meant communications as in how to use and get set up in the media etc. He'd probably be good at that and have lots of contacts obviously. But as far as actually crafting the message, I think any party would be smart to take a pass on that.
If Rutherford ran, he'd get killed. Absolutely killed! He might stand a puncher's chance if he ran for councillor/alderman, but not for mayor. Nenshi is virtually unbeatable this fall and Rutherford is not credible enough.
Quote:
Originally Posted by bizaro86
Just curious, is there anyone you think that would be credible enough? I couldn't think of anyone who would consider running that I'd vote for over Nenshi, but I'd be interested to hear what others think.
I think that a credible candidate against him could be much more interesting. While I don't think that Rutherford would win, I think people citing the approval rating are mistakenly under the impression that Nenshi would garner anywhere near that percentage against someone credible. If the 2010 race was Nenshi and McIvor straight up does Nenshi win? I'm not so sure. Granted things are good right now, and I would vote Nenshi personally, but CP isn't anywhere near neutral in this discussion.
I doubt we see anyone credible step forward anyway, so it's all a moot point. It would be interesting though.
I think that a credible candidate against him could be much more interesting. While I don't think that Rutherford would win, I think people citing the approval rating are mistakenly under the impression that Nenshi would garner anywhere near that percentage against someone credible. If the 2010 race was Nenshi and McIvor straight up does Nenshi win? I'm not so sure. Granted things are good right now, and I would vote Nenshi personally, but CP isn't anywhere near neutral in this discussion.
I doubt we see anyone credible step forward anyway, so it's all a moot point. It would be interesting though.
I'd love to see Nenshi vs McIver round two. It would be very interesting. I'd vote Nenshi, but would enjoy the ride. Of course, no way McIver gives up his minister role to try for mayor again.
Just curious, is there anyone you think that would be credible enough? I couldn't think of anyone who would consider running that I'd vote for over Nenshi, but I'd be interested to hear what others think.
Credible doesn't mean the candidate wins. A sitting councillor would be credible, but would stand little chance of winning. I don't see Rutherford being credible. If a credible candidate steps up, there is still almost no change anyone beats Nenshi.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Slava
I think that a credible candidate against him could be much more interesting. While I don't think that Rutherford would win, I think people citing the approval rating are mistakenly under the impression that Nenshi would garner anywhere near that percentage against someone credible. If the 2010 race was Nenshi and McIvor straight up does Nenshi win? I'm not so sure. Granted things are good right now, and I would vote Nenshi personally, but CP isn't anywhere near neutral in this discussion.
I doubt we see anyone credible step forward anyway, so it's all a moot point. It would be interesting though.
In a head-to-head race with pretty much anyone, Nenshi would clean up. I don't see anyone having much of any chance. Next election it may be different as mayors tend to lose support around that time as there are more and more pissed off people. This year they guy is as safe as it gets.
Credible doesn't mean the candidate wins. A sitting councillor would be credible, but would stand little chance of winning. I don't see Rutherford being credible. If a credible candidate steps up, there is still almost no change anyone beats Nenshi.
In a head-to-head race with pretty much anyone, Nenshi would clean up. I don't see anyone having much of any chance. Next election it may be different as mayors tend to lose support around that time as there are more and more pissed off people. This year they guy is as safe as it gets.
I definitely think he'd deservedly win. I think that it would likely be something like 60/40 though. I get the impression that some people think that margin would be 90-10 or something crazy though. 60-40 would be a beatdown though.
I definitely think he'd deservedly win. I think that it would likely be something like 60/40 though. I get the impression that some people think that margin would be 90-10 or something crazy though. 60-40 would be a beatdown though.
I think Nenshi would win be a much wider margin - taking at least two thirds of the votes. However, I don't live there and you do so I'm sure you have a better sense.
Well voting difference isn't the same as approval ratings. I don't think anyone here is suggesting ANY candidate would with with a 9-1 spread. That never happens for anyone.
But Rutherford would get squished about as bad as anyone running against Klein in his incumbent years. Whatever that percentage was.
Nenshi finished up pretty handily in a flat race last time. Being the incumbent this time, and one of the most popular mayors we've had, it's not close. It's not Bronco running again here.
I also think you're overestimating just how much weight Rutherford would carry in an election. Sure he's interesting, he can get people behind him etc., makes a good personality. But he'd has zero clout in politics so far and he'd most likely piss off more people than he'd get behind his banner.
I doubt Rutherford could even win in a non-incumbent year. Though I wouldn't be so surprised I'd offer to eat my own pubes with a little peanut butter.
Well voting difference isn't the same as approval ratings. I don't think anyone here is suggesting ANY candidate would with with a 9-1 spread. That never happens for anyone.
But Rutherford would get squished about as bad as anyone running against Klein in his incumbent years. Whatever that percentage was.
Nenshi finished up pretty handily in a flat race last time. Being the incumbent this time, and one of the most popular mayors we've had, it's not close. It's not Bronco running again here.
I also think you're overestimating just how much weight Rutherford would carry in an election. Sure he's interesting, he can get people behind him etc., makes a good personality. But he'd has zero clout in politics so far and he'd most likely piss off more people than he'd get behind his banner.
I wouldn't call having a listenership of a quarter of the province 'zero clout'. If he hadn't given Danielle Smith interviews since day one of her leadership race, the Wildrose wouldn't have been as well known as they were going into the election. It isn't all attributable to him, but he certainly has helped foment discontent with the PCs since Ed was Premier.
That is not 'zero clout'.
I'm not sure he'd beat Nenshi, but if the entire federal CPC establishment backs him, as they did the Wildrose, I wouldn't say that he'd get completely wiped out either.
Last edited by mariners_fever; 05-09-2013 at 04:47 PM.
