Our 6th Overall Pick: Elias Lindholm or Sean Monahan?

[The Fonz]

Originally Posted by Swayze11

ufa

http://www.capgeek.com/player/2245

Oh apologies. nhlnumbers has him as RFA


http://stats.nhlnumbers.com/teams/CGY?year=2013

[Swayze11]

Originally Posted by The Fonz

Oh apologies. nhlnumbers has him as RFA


http://stats.nhlnumbers.com/teams/CGY?year=2013

I know there was a lot of confusion if he was RFA or UFA. He is 27 and in the CBA it states:

Maintenance of existing Group 3 UFA eligibility
standards, which allow for Players to become
Unrestricted Free Agents at age 27 or upon achieving seven (7) Accrued Seasons.

[Anduril]

Originally Posted by Alberta_Beef

I picked Monahan.

I really think he could be like David Backes with more offensive ability.

Hard to imagine. He doesn't have that nasty streak and as other posters have mentioned, Lindholm has been more physical compared to Monahan. I see Monahan to be like a Martin Hanzel with better defensive abilities.

[Savvy27]

My sense is that the Flames are going to try and move into the top 4, but if they fail that I am now leaning towards Monahan. With Baertschi and Gaudreau being our two best offensive prospects, adding a big skilled center who will likely be able to play top line minutes and play a solid two-way game seems like a solid way to build a team.

From Sean Monahan's blog:
Being voted among the top-three players in our conference in four categories was pretty special. Sharing in the top three with friends or players I have played before is pretty cool. It's always great competition. The one category that I would say I'm most proud about was finishing third behind Oshawa's Boone Jenner (Columbus Blue Jackets) and Barrie's Mark Scheifele (Winnipeg Jets) as the Best on Face-Offs. I take a lot of pride on my faceoffs, and they're a big part of my game.

'Good on faceoffs' would be a nice change.

[nik-]

Originally Posted by Savvy27

My sense is that the Flames are going to try and move into the top 4, but if they fail that I am now leaning towards Monahan. With Baertschi and Gaudreau being our two best offensive prospects, adding a big skilled center who will likely be able to play top line minutes and play a solid two-way game seems like a solid way to build a team.

From Sean Monahan's blog:
Being voted among the top-three players in our conference in four categories was pretty special. Sharing in the top three with friends or players I have played before is pretty cool. It's always great competition. The one category that I would say I'm most proud about was finishing third behind Oshawa's Boone Jenner (Columbus Blue Jackets) and Barrie's Mark Scheifele (Winnipeg Jets) as the Best on Face-Offs. I take a lot of pride on my faceoffs, and they're a big part of my game.

'Good on faceoffs' would be a nice change.

Lindholm apparently runs at 58% in the SEL

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by The Fonz

Would Nashville do any of these?

To CGY:
- 4th overall

To NSH:
- 6th overall
- Tanguay

OR

- 6th overall
- PIT's 1st

OR

- 6th overall
- 3rd round pick
- Cervenka


Or is this an overpayment on our part, just to get Barkov rather than Lindholm?

Just for some perspective and comparison, the NFL draft value chart separates the 4th and 6th picks by 200 points, which would equate to a mid 3rd round pick (78th pick to be precise).

Offering up a 1st round pick or an NHL player like Tanguay to move from 6th to 4th is overpayment.

And in all likelihood, we'll get the player we want at 6th anyway.

Now, if you are offering a player that isn't in your plans anyway, well then carry on. And that may well be the case with Tanguay.

[moon]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Just for some perspective and comparison, the NFL draft value chart separates the 4th and 6th picks by 200 points, which would equate to a mid 3rd round pick (78th pick to be precise).

Offering up a 1st round pick or an NHL player to move from 6th to 4th is overpayment.

And in all likelihood, we'll get the player we want at 6th anyway.

I would think the NFL and NHL charts would be quite different based on the fact that NHL picks are more valuable than NFL picks and there are so many more impact players/needs in NFL.

[bubbsy]

Originally Posted by moon

I would think the NFL and NHL charts would be quite different based on the fact that NHL picks are more valuable than NFL picks and there are so many more impact players/needs in NFL.

yup i don't think value charts for the NFL are good comparisons to the NHL. The top 10 picks in the NHL are worth much more, but the NFL picks hold high value as you go deeper past the 1st round, whereas in the NHL, anything after the first round is more or less a crapshoot.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by moon

I would think the NFL and NHL charts would be quite different based on the fact that NHL picks are more valuable than NFL picks and there are so many more impact players/needs in NFL.

Originally Posted by bubbsy

yup i don't think value charts for the NFL are good comparisons to the NHL. The top 10 picks in the NHL are worth much more, but the NFL picks hold high value as you go deeper past the 1st round, whereas in the NHL, anything after the first round is more or less a crapshoot.

My thoughts at first as well. However, they are also used in the NBA and in European soccer and the more I look at them, the more comfortable I become with them.

Also, as I have compared past NHL trades of picks, I find it is usually pretty indicative.

Also, as I said, it was for some comparison and perspective only - at the top at least, each year is a little different.

[Bill Bumface]

I think even 6th is a bit of a crap shoot.

I just ripped through the 2000-2008 drafts and picked out the impact players. The best thing to come from a #6 pick? Milan Michalek.

I think we're pinning a little much on this. I'll be happy if we get an NHL regular out of it. I don't think an impact player is something you can really ever "expect" besides at #1 or #2:

2000: -#2 Dany Heatley -#3 Marian Gaborik -#205 Henrik Lunddqvist

2001:
-#1 Kovalchuk
-#2 Spezza

2002:
-#1 Dick Rash
-#2 Jaybo
-#7 Lupul
-#13 Semin
-#25 Cam Ward
-#54 Duncan Keith
-#241 Dennis Wideman

2003 (WOW):
-#1 MA Fluery
-#2 Eric Stall
-#5 Vanek
-#6 Michalek
-#7 Suter
-#11 Carter
-#17 Parise
-#13 Dustin Brown
-#19 Getzlaf
-#20 Brent Burns
-#23 Ryan Kesler
-#24 Mike Richards
-#28 Corey Perry
-#33 Loui Eriksson
-#45 Bergeron
-#49 Weber
-#62 Backes
-#64 Jimmy Howard

2004:
-#1 Ovechkin
-#2 Malkin
-#262 Mark Streit

2005:
-#1 Crosby
-#11 Kopitar
-#12 Marc Staal

2006:
-#3 Toews
-#4 Backstrom
-#5 Kessel
-#22 Giroux

2007:
-#1 Kane

2008:
-#1 Stamkos
-#2 Doughty
-#15 Karlsson -#22 Eberle

[Savvy27]

Originally Posted by The Fonz

Or is this an overpayment on our part, just to get Barkov rather than Lindholm?

Assuming that Barkov is genuinely in the "franchise player" category, I think that in the long run there aren't too many trades that would be an overpayment. The difference between Kane and Gagner or Toews and Brassard is worth any player in our system, though given the risk I would be extremely reluctant to trade Baertschi or Brodie.

Here are some of the differences between the 3rd and 5th forwards taken in the past few drafts:
2012: (11) Forsberg (13) Faksa (weird draft with many D taken early)
2011: (3) Huberdeau (6) Zibenijad
2010: (4) Johansen (6) Connolly
2009: (3) Duchene (7) Kadri
2008: (7) Wilson (9) Bailey
2007: (3) Turris (7) Voracek
2006: (3) Toews (5) Kessel

Not as bad as I thought it would be when I started out. However, the 2006 draft makes me very nervous.
1) E. Johnson
2) J. Staal
3) J. Toews
4) N. Backstrom
5) P. Kessel
6) D. Brassard
7) K. Okposo
8) P. Mueller
9) J. Sheppard

That is an enormous drop-off between the elite talent at the top and the NHL caliber (but not first line caliber) players.

Since the Flames aren't planning on hanging out at the bottom of the league for a bunch of years, I fully support a bold move to get up to the elite guys.

(The reason I picked the 2006 draft is that there seemed to be a distinct cut-off point after Backstrom and Kessel in the mock drafts I could find, which is similar to Drouin and Barkov.)

[drPepper1]

Here are some numbers from some of the top centers that came out of the SEL:

Spoiler!

Elias Lindholm
2011-12 Brynas IF Gavle SEL 12 0 0 0 0 -2
2012-13 Brynas IF Gavle SEL 48 11 19 30 2 1

Nicklas Backstrom
2004-05 Brynas IF Gavle SEL 19 0 0 0 2 -5
2005-06 Brynas IF Gavle SEL 46 10 16 26 30 -1
2006-07 Brynas IF Gavle SEL 45 12 28 40 46 -2

Henrik Zetterberg
2000-01 Timra IK SEL 47 15 31 46 24 -2
2001-02 Timra IK SEL 48 10 22 32 20 -14
**2004-05 Timra IK SEL 50 19 31 50 24 15

Peter Forsberg
1990-91 Modo Hockey Ornskoldsvik SEL 23 7 10 17 22
1991-92 Modo Hockey Ornskoldsvik SEL 39 9 19 28 78
1992-93 Modo Hockey Ornskoldsvik SEL 39 23 24 47 92
1993-94 Modo Hockey Ornskoldsvik SEL 39 18 26 44 82
1994-95 Modo Hockey Ornskoldsvik SEL 11 5 9 14 20
**2004-05 Modo Hockey Ornskoldsvik SEL 33 13 26 39 88

Henrik Sedin
1997-98 Modo Hockey Ornskoldsvik SEL 39 1 4 5 8
1998-99 Modo Hockey Ornskoldsvik SEL 49 12 22 34 32
1999-00 Modo Hockey Ornskoldsvik SEL 50 9 38 47 22
**2004-05 Modo Hockey Ornskoldsvik SEL 44 14 22 36 50

Mats Sundin
1989-90 Djurgardens IF Stockholm SEL 34 10 8 18 16
**1994-95 Djurgardens IF Stockholm SEL 12 7 2 9 14

**Lockout Year

Lindholm is playing for the same club Nicklas Backstrom was with and is putting up very similar numbers as him as well.

[djsFlames]

6th pick + pitts pick + 3rd round pick

MIGHT get it done depending on Nashville's list. If they're set on Lindholm/Monahan, and had conversations with Carolina to find that they're going after a defenseman, then they would probably consider doing it.

But if they like their position at 4th more than we expect, then I could see their asking price immediately becoming awful steep. A roster guy we don't wanna trade, high value, low cost, like Backlund or Glencross plus picks..

[Table 5]

Originally Posted by hulkrogan

I think we're pinning a little much on this. I'll be happy if we get an NHL regular out of it. I don't think an impact player is something you can really ever "expect" besides at #1 or #2

I generally agree with tempering expetations, but it seems like this draft gets compared to 2003 quite a bit, so expectations are a little higher here. I'd be disappointed if we didn't at least get a solid 2nd line player out of this. I just pray we don't draft the Hugh Jessiman of the 1st round.

Still, this is the reason why a lot of us were cheering for tank job. Two less wins and it's us at #1 right now.

[CGY12]

Originally Posted by Ashasx

?

Monahan's skating is one of his biggest weaknesses.

Based on the small video I've seen, yes his stride isn't as fluid as Lindholms but he does look a bit quicker.

[albertGQ]

Originally Posted by djsFlames

6th pick + pitts pick + 3rd round pick

MIGHT get it done depending on Nashville's list. If they're set on Lindholm/Monahan, and had conversations with Carolina to find that they're going after a defenseman, then they would probably consider doing it.

But if they like their position at 4th more than we expect, then I could see their asking price immediately becoming awful steep. A roster guy we don't wanna trade, high value, low cost, like Backlund or Glencross plus picks..

That's an overpayment in my opinion. I'd rather keep the sixth pick

[dammage79]

This could be the kind of draft where we see a TON of Gary Bettman announcing trades.

And I have a really hard time believing Barkov falls out of the fourth spot. He is better than Lindholm and Monahan easily. But, if a team sees they're better off picking a D or one of the other centers before going with Barkov I am totally cool with that. Theres no chance in Hades CGY passes up on Barkov if he falls to sixth.

[djsFlames]

Originally Posted by hulkrogan

I think even 6th is a bit of a crap shoot.

I just ripped through the 2000-2008 drafts and picked out the impact players. The best thing to come from a #6 pick? Milan Michalek.

I think we're pinning a little much on this. I'll be happy if we get an NHL regular out of it. I don't think an impact player is something you can really ever "expect" besides at #1 or #2:

2000: -#2 Dany Heatley -#3 Marian Gaborik -#205 Henrik Lunddqvist

2001:
-#1 Kovalchuk
-#2 Spezza

2002:
-#1 Dick Rash
-#2 Jaybo
-#7 Lupul
-#13 Semin
-#25 Cam Ward
-#54 Duncan Keith
-#241 Dennis Wideman

2003 (WOW):
-#1 MA Fluery
-#2 Eric Stall
-#5 Vanek
-#6 Michalek
-#7 Suter
-#11 Carter
-#17 Parise
-#13 Dustin Brown
-#19 Getzlaf
-#20 Brent Burns
-#23 Ryan Kesler
-#24 Mike Richards
-#28 Corey Perry
-#33 Loui Eriksson
-#45 Bergeron
-#49 Weber
-#62 Backes
-#64 Jimmy Howard

2004:
-#1 Ovechkin
-#2 Malkin
-#262 Mark Streit

2005:
-#1 Crosby
-#11 Kopitar
-#12 Marc Staal

2006:
-#3 Toews
-#4 Backstrom
-#5 Kessel
-#22 Giroux

2007:
-#1 Kane

2008:
-#1 Stamkos
-#2 Doughty
-#15 Karlsson -#22 Eberle

Well, this year is being compared to 2003, so this should say enough for you. There'll be a good number of higher end NHLers scattered throughout the 1st round, exactly why if trading up isn't an easy move to make then we just keep all our 1st rounders, as we could have multiple NHL regulars on our hands. In such a talented draft, Columbus and Calgary could very likely be the biggest winners for just having a greater quantity of picks. (just look at all the late 1st round talent coming out of '03, arguably stronger than the top half of the round!)

[nik-]

Man, the more I think about this draft, the more I really want Feaster to try and swap picks with Carolina. Those two teams are wildcards with who they'll draft. This is going to be a tense day when it finally goes down.

[azzarish]

I can't see any team dropping down from the top 5 to #6. Not in this draft with the players available.

We would have to offer them something outlandish.