[GDT] April 29th - 2013 NHL Draft Lottery Update: Flames retain 6th pick. Avs win

[handgroen]

odds are approx. 1 in 16

not that bad really

come on god, make it up to me

[You Need a Thneed]

So, there are 24024 different combinations (=14*13*12*11)

We have to round the listed percentages to the nearest whole number, that leaves us with:

Florida - 6006
Colorado - 4517
Tampa Bay - 3411
Nashville - 2571
Carolina - 1946
Calgary - 1489
Edmonton - 1129
Buffalo - 865
New Jersey - 649
Dallas - 505
Philadelphia - 360
Phoenix - 264
Winnipeg - 192
Columbus - 120

The percentages to four decimal places are then:

Florida - 25.0000%
Colorado - 18.8020%
Tampa Bay - 14.1983%
Nashville - 10.7018%
Carolina - 8.1002%
Calgary - 6.1980%
Edmonton - 4.6995%
Buffalo - 3.6006%
New Jersey - 2.7015%
Dallas - 2.1021%
Philadelphia - 1.4985%
Phoenix - 1.0989%
Winnipeg - 0.7992%
Columbus - 0.4995%

[getbak]

Originally Posted by handgroen

odds are approx. 1 in 16

not that bad really

come on god, make it up to me

This is the 18th lottery (not counting 2005, which had different rules), and the #6 team has never won it. We're due.

[CsInMyBlood]

If the Flames actually had some luck from the Hockey Gods and got the first overall pick I think I would soil myself and then go blind.

Realistically what I'm hoping for is no team winning the lotto above us. Especially the Armpit of the Earth, that City of Chumps, Edmonton.

[EldrickOnIce]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

If you don't care what the draw order is, then it really is just 1001 combinations:

(14/4)*(13/3)*(12/2)*(11/1) = 1001. Chances are this is how they do it.

Thanks... that's the part I missed! Order is not important.

My old stats teacher would be almost proud

[You Need a Thneed]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

If you don't care what the draw order is, then it really is just 1001 combinations:

(14/4)*(13/3)*(12/2)*(11/1) = 1001. Chances are this is how they do it.

The problem with that theory, is that dividing the published percentages into 1001, gives numbers that all round down, so that only 1000 of the combinations are used.

The only way for that to work is having 1 of the 1001 combinations not assigned to any team, or the published percentages are wrong. I would certainly guess that neither are the case.

[trackercowe]

So is this the first time that the Flames have ever had an actual chance at picking first, without having to trade up? In the past only the bottom 5 teams had a shot picking first, but has Calgary ever finished in a position to move up those 4 spots?

That's pretty crazy when you think about it; I would imagine the Flames are the only team in the league to have been in this position until now when all 14 non-playoff teams have a shot at #1.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

It's funny, I had the same gut feeling today once somebody mentioned them as a winner in the simulation.

Bigger market team that has struggled to draw the last couple years, could use a big name like Seth Jones to help draw fans out to their new stadium.

That theory is sort of blown up by the fact that they had the greatest goaltender in the sports history, and currently have a $100 million former 50-goal scorer on their roster. I don't think Seth Jones will cause a Crosby-esque turnaround there.

Originally Posted by You Need a Thneed

The problem with that theory, is that dividing the published percentages into 1001, gives numbers that all round down, so that only 1000 of the combinations are used.

The only way for that to work is having 1 of the 1001 combinations not assigned to any team, or the published percentages are wrong. I would certainly guess that neither are the case.

I would actually say that either could be the case. There would be little issue with combination 1-2-3-4 forcing a redraw. Or, it could well be that the odds are simplified for public consumption. Probably the former.

[PeteLFan]

I wonder who is holding our lottery ticket Edwards or king?

We can have a commercial like 649.

Ken king: honey guess what we won lotto NHL put away that free agent list.

[Ashasx]

Do it for Edwards, Gary.

[PeteLFan]

Rig it like David stern does in the NBA.

[ComixZone]

I know a lot of people are against cheering for losses, as am I...but the reality is starting to set in that if we had lost 1 more friggin' game, we would be in the top 4 and drafting one of these so-called "elite" prospects.

That stings. We just suffered through a pitiful damn season (the 4th in a row) and come up 1 or 2 losses short of an "elite" prospect? That stinks.

[Rapidfire999]

Originally Posted by CsInMyBlood

If the Flames actually had some luck from the Hockey Gods and got the first overall pick I think I would soil myself and then go blind.

Realistically what I'm hoping for is no team winning the lotto above us. Especially the Armpit of the Earth, that City of Chumps, Edmonton.

Not trying to be mean or anything but I hope you soil yourself and you become blind

[You Need a Thneed]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

I would actually say that either could be the case. There would be little issue with combination 1-2-3-4 forcing a redraw. Or, it could well be that the odds are simplified for public consumption. Probably the former.

A redraw for any reason in such a lottery setup would be a very bad thing. You can't have a truly random system if some of the random possibilities are thrown out if they happen.

The odds aren't simplified, other than being rounded. If you are going to round, why publish incorrect numbers?

I suppose if you raised one teams number of entries on the list by one to get 1001, the numbers would be correct, but members of the public would then point out that the listed percentages add up to 100.1% Would the NHL intentionally misstate one of the team's chance of winning just to avoid people complaining about that? I suppose it's possible.

Either way, you are already pulling 4 balls randomly out of the drum, why not make order of those numbers matter to solve the problem?

[MolsonInBothHands]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

Of course the Oilers website has a draft lottery simulator for anyone wanting to try it:
http://oilers.nhl.com/club/news.htm?id=668035

Flames win on my first try.

I ran this 100 times, and I think I flushed a lot of the flames bad luck out, hopefully this clears the way:

Florida - 29
Colorado - 19
Tampa Bay - 18
Carolina - 10
Nashville - 9
Edmonton - 5
Calgary 3 - 78,80,85
Phoenix - 2
Dallas - 2
Buffalo - 1
Columbus - 1
New Jersey - 1

[bubbsy]

which team wins it (other than PHX) which gets all the conspiracy theory folks out their calling it a rigged draft?

-NSH?
-COL?

[getbak]

Originally Posted by bubbsy

which team wins it (other than PHX) which gets all the conspiracy theory folks out their calling it a rigged draft?

-NSH?
-COL?

Any one. Conspiracy nutters don't need a reason to look for a conspiracy.

If you try hard enough, you can probably find a reason why the league would rig the draft to help any one of the teams win it.

[robaur]

Is there a way to watch this online as I'll be at work. Thanks.

[PeteLFan]

Originally Posted by robaur

Is there a way to watch this online as I'll be at work. Thanks.

Tsn Mobile has it and they will have a live blog on tsn.ca as well.

[skudr248]

Okay but seriously.. what will you guy's do if we win? I for one, will drink the bar dry tonight and cry happy tears all night