[GDT] April 29th - 2013 NHL Draft Lottery Update: Flames retain 6th pick. Avs win

[You Need a Thneed]

Originally Posted by PeteLFan

If that's really how the lottery works that seems overly complicated for no apparent reason.

You have to make lottery systems fairly complicated to ensure that odds are, in fact, as advertised.

Computers are lousy at generating random numbers, humans are much much worse even than that.

You have to have some kind of mechanical system, balls in a drum works pretty well. After that, you have to develop a system for the balls that can sets the percentages where you want them. It's also probably not truly random enough to have too many balls in the drum, that's why you don't just throw 1000 balls in the drum.

[EldrickOnIce]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Ok, I have been working on this for a while and I have nothing.

Can someone explain to me how you can draw 4 balls, numbered 1-14 and from that, get a 4 digit numer?

That makes no sense whatsoever.

Ok, found this. Bizarre,but makes sense now I guess:

http://mirtle.blogspot.ca/2008/03/ho...aft-works.html

Fourteen balls, numbered 1 to 14, were placed in a lottery machine. The machine expelled four balls, forming a series of numbers. The four-digit series resulting from the expulsion of the balls was matched against a probability chart that divided the possible combinations among the 14 participating clubs. The chart showed that the Blues had been assigned the numbers (11-14-13-1) that were expelled.

By finishing dead last, St. Louis received 25 per cent of the 1,001 combinations possible in this system, while the second-last team, Pittsburgh, received 18.8 per cent of them.

[Phil Russell]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

Of course the Oilers website has a draft lottery simulator for anyone wanting to try it:
http://oilers.nhl.com/club/news.htm?id=668035

Flames win on my first try.

And the Oilers win three of my first seven tries. Calgary hits at twelve.

[cral12]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Ok, I have been working on this for a while and I have nothing.

Can someone explain to me how you can draw 4 balls, numbered 1-14 and from that, get a 4 digit numer?

That makes no sense whatsoever.

Tell me about it! This is exactly how the NHL PR release to media explains it. Seriously!

[cral12]

Originally Posted by Phil Russell

And the Oilers win three of my first seven tries. Calgary hits at twelve.

Lightning won 1st time I went to the site. Oilers won on 1st redo. End of "experiment".

[cral12]

Originally Posted by PeteLFan

If that's really how the lottery works that seems overly complicated for no apparent reason.

I hear ya; hence, the statement: "Pythagoras would have been proud."

[FlameZilla]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

Of course the Oilers website has a draft lottery simulator for anyone wanting to try it:
http://oilers.nhl.com/club/news.htm?id=668035

Flames win on my first try.

Leave it to the Oilers to have that on their site... Copies of NHL 97 must be hard to come by up there!

Got the Flames first time. Then NJ, EDM, NJ & CAR

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by EldrickOnIce

Ok, found this. Bizarre,but makes sense now I guess:

http://mirtle.blogspot.ca/2008/03/ho...aft-works.html

Ok, that all makes sense - and I agree with You Need a Thead in that you need a mechanical system.

However, with 14 balls, there are 24,024 possible combinations.

If they have 24,024 results on their charts, with 25% of them assigned to Florida etc, then great - that works.

But why 14? Just because there are 14 teams and it has optical appeal?

[EldrickOnIce]

So essentially it's like lotto 4-14.
The Panthers have been assigned 25% of the 1001 possible combination, so 250 combinations, and so on.

[EldrickOnIce]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

However, with 14 balls, there are 24,024 possible combinations.

You are better at applied stats than me then... I don't remember how to get the possible combinations, but it is 14 choose 1, plus 13 choose1, plus 12 choose 1, plus 11 choose 1. Then some else lol.

If that's 24,024 then I have no clue. The article said 1001 combinations..... so if so, that's a nice number to work with as well as the optics of it.

[Ryan Coke]

Ok, makes sense. Of course you still need to trust the probability chart for who they assigned what numbers...not great for TV.

Seems like for TV you could go with 100 balls, then just adjust the percentages to give round numbers for each team.

Oh well, as long as the Flames win then it is a perfect system.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by EldrickOnIce

You are better at applied stats than me then... I don't remember how to get the possible combinations, but it is 14 choose 1, plus 13 choose1, plus 12 choose 1, plus 11 choose 1.

If that's 24,024 then I have no clue. The article said 1001 combinations..... so if so, that's a nice number to work with as well as the optics of it.

Correct: 14 x 13 x 12 x 11

As for 1,001 - that is simply the minimum number of results required in order to create the odds that they desire (there is no smaller denomination that allows for those odds)

So it looks like you take your 1,001 results and copy them 24 times over the spectrum of the 24,024 results you get from the 4 balls.

For example, Florida gets 250 x 24 = 6,000 lines on their chart
Colorado gets 188 x 24 = 4,512 etc

That works. But still seems a bit unnecessarily complicated to me.

Maybe one of their goals is to keep it incomprehensible.

And I would guess another goal is the optics of 14 balls (for 14 teams)

[#-3]

I got Edmonton, then Florida, then Calgary.

[GoFlamesGo1989]

Flames won 3/5 for me lol

[ReinhartonD]

Wish #1 - we get it or, if not
Wish #2 - NOT THE OILERS! and if we get that,
Wish #3 - Not the Western Conference.

Although it would be interesting to see how the Coil could screw up Seth Jones.

[You Need a Thneed]

Go big or go home - put 69,036,286,473,000 ball in a giant drum.

Florida has their logo on 17,259,071,618,250 of them, down to 345,181,432,365 with the Columbus logo on them.

Rnadomly pick one out of it.

[calumniate]

Originally Posted by You Need a Thneed

Go big or go home - put 69,036,286,473,000 ball in a giant drum.

Florida has their logo on 17,259,071,618,250 of them, down to 345,181,432,365 with the Columbus logo on them.

Rnadomly pick one out of it.

Better shake those balls up nice and good

[puckluck2]

I've got a feeling the Devils are going to win the draft lottery.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Correct: 14 x 13 x 12 x 11

As for 1,001 - that is simply the minimum number of results required in order to create the odds that they desire (there is no smaller denomination that allows for those odds)

So it looks like you take your 1,001 results and copy them 24 times over the spectrum of the 24,024 reults you get from the 4 balls.

For example, Florida gets 250 x 24 = 6,000 lines on their chart
Colorado gets 188 x 24 = 4,512 etc

That works. But still seems a bit unnecessarily complicated to me.

Maybe one of their goals is to keep it incomprehensible.

And I would guess another goal is the optics of 14 balls (for 14 teams)

If you don't care what the draw order is, then it really is just 1001 combinations:

(14/4)*(13/3)*(12/2)*(11/1) = 1001. Chances are this is how they do it.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by puckluck2

I've got a feeling the Devils are going to win the draft lottery.

It's funny, I had the same gut feeling today once somebody mentioned them as a winner in the simulation.

Bigger market team that has struggled to draw the last couple years, could use a big name like Seth Jones to help draw fans out to their new stadium.