The Drive for 30th

[Flames Draft Watcher]

How sad is it that Howard gifting us two goals may mean the difference between drafting 7th and drafting 3rd/4th.

Stupid Howard.

[Rhettzky]

Updated. No movement but Tampa climbs to 2pts back.

Pick: Team - Points (Remaining Games) Odds of winning lottery%
14th to 10th: Combined odds to improve = 6.0%
9th: Buffalo - 46 (NYI) 2.7%
8th: Philadelphia - 45 (NYI, OTT) 3.6%
7th: Calgary - 42 (STL, CHI) 4.7%
6th: Carolina - 41 (NYR, PIT) 6.2%
5th: Edmonton - 41 (MIN, VAN) 8.1%
4th: Nashville - 41 (DET, CBJ) 10.7%
3rd: Tampa Bay - 40 (BOS, FLA) 14.2%
2nd: Colorado - 37 (PHO, MIN) 18.8%
1st: Florida - 34 (TOR, TB) 25%

[Five-hole]

Tampa probably beats Florida in game 48*, but it won't matter unless they get at least a point out of Boston in Game 47.

If there was ever a game to watch to see if a team is truly tanking, that would be it. FLA has nothing to lose by winning.

[Frequitude]

Updated probabilities of our placing and our draft pick.

[Frequitude]

The playoffs have no impact on draft order other than the Cup winner picking 30th.


1-14: Non playoff teams, in reverse order of regular season points (plus the lottery)
15-26/27: Playoff teams that didn't win their division, in reverse order of regular season points
26/27-29: Division winners, in reverse order of regular season points
30: Stanley Cup champion

Entry Draft Order
The order of selection among the Member Clubs in each season shall be determined in the following manner:
A composite of all Member Clubs shall be prepared by placing:
i) First the Clubs which failed to qualify for the preceding playoffs in the order of points earned by each of them in the regular schedule of the preceding season starting with the Club having the lowest points total and followed by the Club having the next lowest points total, and so forth.
ii) The Clubs which participated in the preceding playoffs (but had not been ranked first in their respective Divisions and had not won the Stanley Cup that season) in order of points earned by each of them in the regular schedule of the preceding season starting with the Club having the lowest total points and followed by the Club having the next lowest total points, and so forth.
iii) The Clubs which had been ranked first in their Divisions during the next preceding season (but had not won the Stanley Cup that season) in the order of points earned by each of them in the regular schedule of the preceding season starting with the Club having the lowest total points and followed by the Club having the next lowest total points, and so forth.
iv) The Stanley Cup winner shall select last, thus, positioning all Clubs on the list.
In the event of a tie for any position, such tie shall be resolved by application of the rules governing the determination of final League standings. The resulting list shall constitute the order of selection.

http://www.nhl.com/ice/page.htm?id=26377

[PlayfulGenius]

Better than 50% chance the Flames have a pick better than 7th overall

[PlayfulGenius]

[QUOTE=Frequitude;4221069]The playoffs have no impact on draft order other than the Cup winner picking 30th.


1-14: Non playoff teams, in reverse order of regular season points (plus the lottery)
15-26/27: Playoff teams that didn't win their division, in reverse order of regular season points
26/27-29: Division winners, in reverse order of regular season points
30: Stanley Cup champion


Is this new? .. This is NOT how it went down last season

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by Frequitude

The playoffs have no impact on draft order other than the Cup winner picking 30th.


1-14: Non playoff teams, in reverse order of regular season points (plus the lottery)
15-26/27: Playoff teams that didn't win their division, in reverse order of regular season points
26/27-29: Division winners, in reverse order of regular season points
30: Stanley Cup champion





http://www.nhl.com/ice/page.htm?id=26377

That's incorrect. Might be outdated. The last 4 picks are:
30th-Stanley Cup Winner
29th-Stanley Cup Finalist
28th/27th-Conference Final Finalist

That's why the President Trophy winning Canucks picked 26th last year while the Coyotes got stuck with the 27th pick for making the Western Conference Finals.

[FlameZilla]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

That's incorrect. Might be outdated. The last 4 picks are:
30th-Stanley Cup Winner
29th-Stanley Cup Finalist
28th/27th-Conference Final Finalist

That's why the President Trophy winning Canucks picked 26th last year while the Coyotes got stuck with the 27th pick for making the Western Conference Finals.

So if Pittsburgh get knocked out in one of the first two rounds, will their pick be in the 24-26 range? With the St Louis pick likely in the 20-23 range we should be able to get 2 solid prospects...

Might be worth betting a lot on a Blues/Penguins SC Final...

[TurnedTheCorner]

Win the last two games, likely pick 8th.
Go .500 for the last two games, likely pick 6th.
Lost the last two games, likely pick 4th.

I can wrap my head around this finally.

[FlameZilla]

The bottom 8 teams each have 2 games remaining. Avs & Panthers are out of reach, but there's still hope for a 28th finish:

23) Flyers: 45 pts (we would need 2 wins to catch/pass them as they have more wins.)
Next opponents: NYI, OTT

24) Flames: 42 pts
Next: STL, CHI

25) Hurricanes: 41 pts
Next: NYR, PITT

26) Coilers: 41 pts
Next: MIN, VAN

27) Predators: 41 pts
Next: DET, CBJ

28) Bolts: 40 pts
Next: BOS, FLA


Looking at those matchups, what are your gut predictions for final standings? Mine:

23) PHI
24) CAR
25) TBL
26) CGY
27) NSH
28) EDM
29) COL
30) FLA

[stignasty]

Calgary can still finish ahead of New Jersey and Buffalo.
If the Flames win their final two games, and the Devils and Sabres lose their final game(s), they would all be tied with 46 points. However, Calgary has more regulation/overtime wins than either of the other teams and would finish ahead of them.

[loob job]

What happens if we are tied at the end of the season with a team? Whats the tiebreaker? I see now above its regulation wins, how do we stack up against the team around us in that category?

[stignasty]

If two or more clubs are tied in points during the regular season, the standing of the clubs is determined in the following order:

• The fewer number of games played (i.e., superior points percentage).
• The greater number of games won, excluding games won in the Shootout. This figure is reflected in the ROW column.
• The greater number of points earned in games between the tied clubs. If two clubs are tied, and have not played an equal number of home games against each other, points earned in the first game played in the city that had the extra game shall not be included. If more than two clubs are tied, the higher percentage of available points earned in games among those clubs, and not including any "odd" games, shall be used to determine the standing.
• The greater differential between goals for and against for the entire regular season. NOTE: In standings a victory in a shootout counts as one goal for, while a shootout loss counts as one goal against.

[stignasty]

Games played/Wins/Losses/Loser point/Total Points/ROW

[loob job]

Thanks guys, so by looking at stignasty's post above we are screwed if we tie carolin, edm. nash or tampa. We definitely need to lose the last two games and hope for a win by one or more of those teams, ties don't help us at all.

[calgaryrocks]

so we win (lose in this case) any tiebreakers...need tampa to get 3 points and nashville, edmonton and carolina to get 2 points

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by FlameZilla

So if Pittsburgh get knocked out in one of the first two rounds, will their pick be in the 24-26 range?

It would be 26th if the Hawks make it to the Conference Finals or better, and 25th if they didn't.

I'd gladly see the Flames go down 4 or 5 spots at that point to see Iginla hoist the Cup though.

[Rapidfire999]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

It would be 26th if the Hawks make it to the Conference Finals or better, and 25th if they didn't.

I'd gladly see the Flames go down 4 or 5 spots at that point to see Iginla hoist the Cup though.

At first I didn't mind that but the more I think about it.. Iginla can win next year

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by TurnedTheCorner

Win the last two games, likely pick 8th.
Go .500 for the last two games, likely pick 6th.
Lost the last two games, likely pick 4th.

I can wrap my head around this finally.

Lose the last two games and I wouldn't call it likely to pick 4th... probably no better then a coin flip to Draft 4th or higher (Cumulative odds for 4th, 3rd and Draft lottory victory). On the flip side winning out probably lands the Flames in 7th (not eighth place).