if we take today's standings and assume that no one wins the lottery, my guess would be:
Every pick makes sense and shows why 7th is a key spot to be in as we likely can still get Lindholm or Monahan and anything lower really risks that.
However, it seems like the top end of the draft (i.e. top 10) always has at least one surprise and worst case scenario would have Carolina taking Lindholm and Edmonton taking Monahan leaving the Flames with the Nurse/Nichuskin choice. Wouldn't be end of the world but I think the two centers would be a better fit than those two guys.
I would hate to see the Flames package their picks to move up. They should be using the picks in this draft to develop some depth and hedge their bets. I'd rather they take three guys like Lindholm, Gauthier and Petan than rolling the dice on one top end player. McKinnon is a guy I'd love to see in a Flames uniform, but both Lindholm and Gauthier have big potential in the middle and Petan has massive wild card potential as well. If all three of those picks work out you have a very good problem on your hand. If you move them for one guy, and that guy busts, you have a huge problem on your hands. More lottery tickets is probably a better strategy for the Flames right now.
Best case scenario is the Flames knock it out of the park and get 3 great NHL players in the first round, but history suggests otherwise. What if the Flames get one decent top 6 NHLer and maybe a guy who ends up being a 3rd liner or something, with the other fizzling out. In that case how much value were the 3 picks vs having a chance to land a bonafide franchise player? Its a tough call.
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A few weeks after crashing head-first into the boards (denting his helmet and being unable to move for a little while) following a hit from behind by Bob Errey, the Calgary Flames player explains:
"I was like Christ, lying on my back, with my arms outstretched, crucified"
-- Frank Musil - Early January 1994
if we take today's standings and assume that no one wins the lottery, my guess would be:
# 1 - Florida: D Seth Jones
Too good and too much of a building block to pass.
# 2 - Colorado: C/RW Nathan MacKinnon
Tough choice. What they'd really need is Jones, but if they plan to use MacKinnon on the wing like some scouts suggest, a Landeskog-Duchene-MacKinnon line would be pretty neat.
# 3 - Tampa Bay: LW Jonathan Drouin
A no-brainer if Jones and MacKinnon are gone. They don't have a glaring need at the center position with Stamkos and Lecavalier, but a skilled LW like Drouin makes a lot of sense.
# 4 - Nashville: C Aleksander Barkov
They don't need Barkov immediately IF he has to stay over there because of military service (I'm not sure if he has to), as they have two veterans in Fisher and Legwand. Wilson+Barkov down the middle is solid going forward.
# 5 - Carolina: RW Valeri Nishushkin
Outside of Semin and Skinner, the Hurricanes don't have quality wingers. They have locked up a Russian primadonna to a long-term contract, maybe they'd take a flyer on another one?
# 6 - Edmonton Coilers: D Darnell Nurse
Don't know if MacTavish and his scouts see it that way, but that's what they need, anyway.
# 7 - Calgary Flames: C Elias Lindholm
The Flames have the choice between him and Monahan in this scenario. Both look very solid going forward and you probably can't go wrong with either one of them. I like Lindholm slightly more, so he gets the nod in this scenario.
# 8 - Philadelphia Flyers: D Rasmus Ristolainen
They already have very good and young center depth, so they pass on Monahan. They lack a good prospect on the blue line and could need a puck-moving defenseman, as Timonen doesn't get younger and Carle is gone. Therefore, they go with Ristolainen.
# 9 - Buffalo Sabres: C Sean Monahan
They already have good center depth, but given that they have two first rounders, they can afford to go BPA here and Monahan is too good to pass up at this point.
#10 - New Jersey Devils: D Nikita Zadorov
Zidlicky, Salvador and Tallinder are all in their mid 30s, and in addition to Larsson and Merrill, this gives the Devils a great foundation on the blueline.
I could see Florida surprising people and taking Drouin. I don't think that Tallon ignores how he built the Blackhawks by getting two offensive superstars with his top picks.
Could Huberdeau and Drouin be his Toews and Kane....the potential is there.
Especially if he feels that Gudbranson and Kukilov are comparable to Seabrook and Keith.
Last edited by SuperMatt18; 04-24-2013 at 12:44 PM.
Lindholm looks awesome. Good skill set and all-world compete level. I'd bet on a guy like him living up to his draft hype. He has no quit.
Damn that's one angry Swede. I like. Would be very happy drafting Lindholm. Looks like he digs throwing mad hits on the backcheck on unsuspecting forwards. Would love to see him on the Flames.
IMO if the Oilers don't pick Nurse he will drop out of the top 10. Not enough offensive upside to be picked this early which is why I don't want the Flames anywhere near him unless he's still around for the Blues pick.
I hated his old man but Domi would be an intriguing pick with the Flames 2nd pick. Not a big guy but very skilled, good skater, and if he has his dad's competitiveness he should succeed. Also it would be coold to have two Max's on the same team.
Is there a significant difference in talent/potential between the top 3 and the next 3/4 to warrant giving up our PIT 1st and our 1st to move up a few places?
Leaning towards no. That said I think MacKinnon would be amazing and I really got my hopes up that we had a chance at him before the 3 game winning streak.
yeah, maybe Zadorov is too high at #10 ... they could easily go with someone like Shinkaruk or another defenseman like Pulock.
true. Even more reason to think that they'd take MacKinnon over Drouin at 2 if Jones is gone.
In your scenario (Buffalo picking 9th) with Hodgson Grigorenko and Ott being the 3 centers of the future, do you think St. Louis+Pitt picks (18th and 26th) would be enough for the Sabres to move down? It would be something like Monahan for Horvat/Petan or Rychel/Hagg etc.
Imagine the Flames leaving with Lindholm+Monahan! I would be excited.
In your scenario (Buffalo picking 9th) with Hodgson Grigorenko and Ott being the 3 centers of the future, do you think St. Louis+Pitt picks (18th and 26th) would be enough for the Sabres to move down? It would be something like Monahan for Horvat/Petan or Rychel/Hagg etc.
Imagine the Flames leaving with Lindholm+Monahan! I would be excited.
I guess Buffalo could be up to something like that ... then they'd pick three times between 15 and 30 since they also have Minnesota's pick. But I wouldn't be surprised if they prefered Monahan at 9 and a defenseman with the Wild's pick at around 15 ... or a defenseman at 9 and Gauthier/Mantha/Domi/Erne/etc. at around 15.
I hated his old man but Domi would be an intriguing pick with the Flames 2nd pick. Not a big guy but very skilled, good skater, and if he has his dad's competitiveness he should succeed. Also it would be coold to have two Max's on the same team.
He was very competitive... at times to his detriment (dumb penalties, stupid antics). Very quick on his feet.
IMO if the Oilers don't pick Nurse he will drop out of the top 10. Not enough offensive upside to be picked this early which is why I don't want the Flames anywhere near him unless he's still around for the Blues pick.
The Flames have almost played their way out of a McKinnon pick for a C. Time to look at...
Lindholm 6' 190
Monahan 6'2 186
Domi smaller at 5'10 190 but damn fine hockey player.
Monahan is who i like the most of the above. 2nd year player Gold medal with under 17's. 31g 78 pts with the below average 67's. Leads all his team mates by an impressive 30pts so he is the guy leading by example and not benefiting from have a good set up man or another finisher.
or taking a D or Winger with the 6/7 pick instead and taking the C with the STL pick a still quality C with.
Lazar
Gauthier
Horvat
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Last edited by Stay Golden; 04-24-2013 at 01:02 PM.
In your scenario (Buffalo picking 9th) with Hodgson Grigorenko and Ott being the 3 centers of the future, do you think St. Louis+Pitt picks (18th and 26th) would be enough for the Sabres to move down? It would be something like Monahan for Horvat/Petan or Rychel/Hagg etc.
Imagine the Flames leaving with Lindholm+Monahan! I would be excited.
If the Flames could get two top 10 picks out of this draft I would be ecstatic. Technically due to the depth in the top 8 of this draft it could be like having two top 5 picks in any other year.
If we can move one spot ahead of Edmonton, I wouldn't mind drafting Nurse just for the hell of watching their reaction.
Nurse to me has the highest bust potential of the top guys. Very raw at this point. Strikes me as a guy who if he was 3 inches shorter he'd be a late first rounder which is a red flag to me. A guy like Seth Jones.. if he was 6'2 he'd still be a top prospect.
That's a possibility but they seem to take forwards with their first round picks taking defensemen only twice in the first round since 2002. I wouldn't be surprised if they take the Russian myself.
Lindholm
Would be very happy drafting Lindholm. Looks like he digs throwing mad hits on the backcheck on unsuspecting forwards. Would love to see him on the Flames.
