The Drive for 30th

[kehatch]

Originally Posted by Frequitude

Updated probabilities of where we'll finish in the standings and where we'll end up drafting. Huge night in the standings for us. We moved up about 1.3 draft picks in terms of expectation.





" - " means zero possibility, " 0% " means some minute probability that rounds to zero.

34 percent to pick top 5. That's better then yesterday. I will take it.

[expatflame]

I don't care what the stats say, it's going to be unlikely that Calgary picks in the top 5.

The way I see it.
30th-Florida (lock)
29th-Colorado (lock)
28th-Tampa Bay (lock)-They do play Florida but even a win should keep them there as I doubt they beat the Leafs or Bruins.

27th-Edmonton/Carolina
26th-Edmonton/Carolina
25th-Nashville/Calgary
24th-Nashville/Calgary


There is a chance that Calgary may sneak in and get the 6th overall but realistically, it will probably be 7th pick. Nashville could possibly beat Columbus or Detroit but unlikely since they both will be going for the final playoff spot.

-There is no way that Edmonton will win against Chi, Minny or Vancouver.
-Same goes for Carolina against NYR or Pitts

[stignasty]

Originally Posted by kehatch

For our last two:

Win Both - Select 6 to 12
Win One - Select 4 to 7
Win None - Select 3 to 7

That all depends on what the teams who are currently below the Flames do. If they do a collective o-fer, Flames (even if they win none) won't choose higher than 7th*. Tampa is the only team that has one game against a non-playoff team. But they'd have to take 5 of 6 points to pass Calgary in the standings.

*Before the lottery.

[Erick Estrada]

I actually think Button has done pretty well in the past two drafts (Jankowski was a Weisbrod pick) and have faith that the Flames will come out of this draft with 3 good players in the first round.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by expatflame

-There is no way that Edmonton will win against Chi, Minny or Vancouver.
-Same goes for Carolina against NYR or Pitts

Bolded teams have nothing to fight for, their spots are decided. Resting the star players, as bad as Edmonton and Carolina are, could give them a chance. While the Wild and especially Rangers have all the pressure on them. I wouldn't give them 0 chance, especially when 2 OT's is just as good.

Originally Posted by stignasty

That all depends on what the teams who are currently below the Flames do. If they do a collective o-fer, Flames (even if they win none) won't choose higher than 7th*.

*Before the lottery.

Yeah of course. That's why he gave the ranges. At worst the Flames, pre lottery, are drafting in that 11th spot. If they lose their next 2, they can't finish better (worse?) than they are now, in that 7th draft position again before the lottery. If they lose out and get extremely lucky they can cling to third spot, but that's up to Tampa.

[Robbob]

Depending on how things shake down the last Pit game and CHI game could be for the presidents trophy and home advantage through out.

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by expatflame

I don't care what the stats say, it's going to be unlikely that Calgary picks in the top 5.

The way I see it.
30th-Florida (lock)
29th-Colorado (lock)
28th-Tampa Bay (lock)-They do play Florida but even a win should keep them there as I doubt they beat the Leafs or Bruins.

27th-Edmonton/Carolina
26th-Edmonton/Carolina
25th-Nashville/Calgary
24th-Nashville/Calgary


There is a chance that Calgary may sneak in and get the 6th overall but realistically, it will probably be 7th pick. Nashville could possibly beat Columbus or Detroit but unlikely since they both will be going for the final playoff spot.

-There is no way that Edmonton will win against Chi, Minny or Vancouver.
-Same goes for Carolina against NYR or Pitts

Carolina beat NYI who really needed a point to clinch.

That is similar to the Flames beating Detroit and Minnesota..... who both had all the motivation in the world to bury the Flames.

It is harder to tank home games.

[Saqe]

I´m just glad that it looks like there will be a quality Center available at 6th or 7th (Monahan/Lindholm)... that´s good enough for me.

[Wolven]

Good night for the draft last night!

Tonight's 4 games have some helpers for us.

Toronto vs Tampa Bay
Los Angeles vs Detroit
Chicago vs Edmonton
San Jose vs Phoenix

We want Tampa and Edmonton to win for obvious reasons.
LA and SJ we want to win in order to keep the Blues from jumping over them.

Detroit losing tonight could soften them up for the Preds tomorrow. Hopefully regardless of the outcome of tonight's game the Kings beat up the Wings enough for the Preds to sneak out an unexpected win.

[GreenLantern]

Anyone remember a team that picked 3 times in the 1st round and didn't end up with a solid player?

Lets answer my own question:

2002

Washington
12th Steve Eminger
13th Alex Semin
17th Boyd Gordon

2004

Washington
1st Alex Ovechkin
27th Jeff Schultz
29th Mike Green

2007

St. Louis
13th Lars Eller
18th Ian Cole
26th David Perron

Edmonton
6th Sam Gagner
15th Alex Plante
21st Riley Nash

I missed Edmonton so I probably missed a few more..

[Ashasx]

Edmonton picked 3 times in 2007 and only ended up with Gagner... I'd be pretty disappointed if that happened to us.

[Wolven]

Originally Posted by Ashasx

Edmonton picked 3 times in 2007 and only ended up with Gagner... I'd be pretty disappointed if that happened to us.

Devastated sounds more accurate. The Flames need to come out of this draft feeling like we "won". 3 solid players in the first round would do that for us, especially if the first player is a franchise center.

[Canada 02]

2003 LA Kings
Brown
Boyle
Tambellini

The Ducks and the Flyers had two picks each in 2003, and drafted 4 franchise-altering players

The Flames need to nail at least two of the three picks

[FBI]

Can anyone tell me our worst case scenario draft position now after that loss?

[GreenLantern]

Posted this in the other thread and not sure if fata but Central Scouting final rankings are up:

http://flames.nhl.com/club/news.htm?id=667376

My only concern with comparing ANY draft to 03, is that 03 was a stacked stacked stacked draft. Thats three stacks.

[$ven27]

Originally Posted by Ashasx

Edmonton picked 3 times in 2007 and only ended up with Gagner... I'd be pretty disappointed if that happened to us.

2007 was a pretty weak draft compared to this one too though.

[Five-hole]

Originally Posted by FBI

Can anyone tell me our worst case scenario draft position now after that loss?

If we win out and everybody else loses out, we could draft 11th (leapfrogging Philly, NJ, Buffalo, and Phoenix).

[FBI]

Dang it, not what I was wanting to hear

Originally Posted by Five-hole

If we win out and everybody else loses out, we could draft 11th (leapfrogging Philly, NJ, Buffalo, and Phoenix).

[Canada 02]

Florida draft 3 times in 2010 as well
Erik Gudbranson
Nick Bjugstad
Quinton Howden

[Table 5]

Originally Posted by FBI

Dang it, not what I was wanting to hear

Yeah, but that's a pretty unlikely scenario at this point. Even with 1 more win, we're still behind any of them. Most likely we stay exactly where we are....7th.