2013 Calgary Flames Playoff Odds

[jg13]

if we go 11-0-0

58% chance we make playoffs.

[You Need a Thneed]

And here's one of the disadvantages of Sportsclubstats, it currently shows the Flames as "out" despite it still being possible for the Flames to make the playoffs.

I suppose that not even one of sportsclubstats' 2,000,000,000+ simulation had the Flames winning out + Detroit losing out + Columbus losing out + Dallas losing out other than the game they play against Detroit + Phoenix not going 3-3-0 or better + Edmonton not running the table.

Putting aside Phoenix and Edmonton for now, that's just 21 games that MUST be won by a specific team. 1/(2^21) = 1/2,097,152. Of course, Each of those teams that cannot win a game also cannot take more than 1 game to OT, which further decreases the odds, plus one has to factor in Phoenix and Edmonton back into a theoretical calculation.

sportsclubstats appears to run about 2 billion season simulations for each team now. 2^31 is about 2 billion, and since Sportsclubstats has no instances of the Flames making the playoffs, I would have to suggest that the Flames chances of making the playoffs are worse than 1/(2^31), or a 1 in 2 billion chance, by 50/50 random results for each game.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by You Need a Thneed

And here's one of the disadvantages of Sportsclubstats, it currently shows the Flames as "out" despite it still being possible for the Flames to make the playoffs.

I suppose that not even one of sportsclubstats' 2,000,000,000+ simulation had the Flames winning out + Detroit losing out + Columbus losing out + Dallas losing out other than the game they play against Detroit + Phoenix not going 3-3-0 or better + Edmonton not running the table.

Putting aside Phoenix and Edmonton for now, that's just 21 games that MUST be won by a specific team. 1/(2^21) = 1/2,097,152. Of course, Each of those teams that cannot win a game also cannot take more than 1 game to OT, which further decreases the odds, plus one has to factor in Phoenix and Edmonton back into a theoretical calculation.

sportsclubstats appears to run about 2 billion season simulations for each team now. 2^31 is about 2 billion, and since Sportsclubstats has no instances of the Flames making the playoffs, I would have to suggest that the Flames chances of making the playoffs are worse than 1/(2^31), or a 1 in 2 billion chance, by 50/50 random results for each game.

Actually, they are right and there is no chance for the Flames to make the playoffs.

The Flames can still get to 48 pts and the Wings and BJs still only have 47. They do not play each other.

However, both of them play Dallas. Since both of them have to lose all of their games for the Flames to pass them, that would mean that Dallas would have to win both those games, giving them 49 points and still eliminating the Flames.

The Flames are already eliminated.

[#-3]

The Flames are out,


Their max points now are 48.


Dallas plays Detroit and Columbus still,
A little simplisct but say
If Dallas wins both the will be in 8th with 49 points.
If they loss either the winner will be in 8th with 49 points.


0% chance the Flames make the playoffs even though they aren't mathamatically unable to catch the team currently in 8th.


edit: damn to slow.

[You Need a Thneed]

Both of you are correct, I didn't look closely enough. Still, even without that, the odds could easily be slim enough where sportsclubstats might miss it.

So, The Blues' win (actually - getting into OT) yesterday officially eliminated the Flames then? I believe that is the case, as Calgary still could have tied the Blues before the Blues got a point, and could have won the ROW tiebreaker. Dallas would have had to win the game against St. Louis as well.

Trade Bouwmeester away, and he eliminates us from the playoffs.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by You Need a Thneed

Both of you are correct, I didn't look closely enough. Still, even without that, the odds could easily be slim enough where sportsclubstats might miss it.

So, The Blues' win (actually - getting into OT) yesterday officially eliminated the Flames then? I believe that is the case, as Calgary still could have tied the Blues before the Blues got a point, and could have won the ROW tiebreaker. Dallas would have had to win the game against St. Louis as well.

Trade Bouwmeester away, and he eliminates us from the playoffs.

Not entirely sure, but I believe sportsclubstats runs a Monte Carlo simulation with remaining games.

Since all of the remaining games are given an outcome, those games would all be 'played' and no simulation could ever result in the Flames making the playoffs. There is no way that a Monte Carlo simulation (at least a proper one) would/could miss that and apply some low percentage chance of the Flames making it.

[You Need a Thneed]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Not entirely sure, but I believe sportsclubstats runs a Monte Carlo simulation with remaining games.

Since all of the remaining games are given an outcome, those games would all be 'played' and no simulation could ever result in the Flames making the playoffs. There is no way that a Monte Carlo simulation (at least a proper one) would/could miss that and apply some low percentage chance of the Flames making it.

No, but that's not what I meant to say. If Dallas didn't have that game against Columbus that I missed, and if sportsclubstats didn't run every possible outcome - not quite likely yet at this point - would be many billions or trillions - from other teams it looks like they run about 2 billion simulations), the odss are unlikely enough that none of the 2 billion simulations would have put the Flames in the playoffs even though it would have been possible (in that scenario).

However, that Dallas/Columbus game that I missed means that one of those teams has to wins more games than is allowed in the scenario, so the point is moot.