The Drive for 30th - Page 59 - Calgarypuck Forums - The Unofficial Calgary Flames Fan Community

Split98 · 04-15-2013, 10:57 PM

Quick breakdown with very optimistic predictions:

Florida:
@ NY Islanders: 0
@ NY Rangers: 0
@ NJ Devils: 1
@ Boston: 0
vs. NY Rangers: 1
vs. Toronto: 0
@ Tampa Bay: 1
32 + 3 = 35

Colorado:
vs. Minnesota: 1
@ Phoenix: 2
@. St. Louis: 0
vs. St. Louis: 0
vs. Edmonton: 0
35 + 3 = 38

Calgary:
@ Chicago: 0
@ St. Louis: 0
@ Nashville: 2
@ Minnesota: 0
vs. Anaheim: 0
vs. Detroit: 0
36 + 2 = 38

Carolina:
@ Pittsburgh: 0
vs. NY Rangers: 2
vs. NY Islanders: 1
@ Tampa Bay: 2
vs. Philadelphia: 1
@ Winnipeg: 0
@ Ottawa: 0
36 + 6 = 42

Tampa Bay:
vs. Florida: 2
@ Boston: 0
vs. Toronto: 0
vs. Carolina: 1
@ Montreal: 0
@ Boston: 0
37 + 3 = 40

Nashville:
@ Columbus: 0
@ Detroit: 0
vs. Calgary: 1
@ Chicago: 0
38 + 1 = 39

And I'm done throwing out pointless predictions, but you get the idea...

25. Carolina
26. Tampa Bay
27. Nashville
28. Calgary
29. Colorado
30. Florida

azzarish · 04-15-2013, 11:08 PM

Does anyone else think Carolina might not win any of their last 7 games?

They've got a really difficult run in.

stignasty · 04-15-2013, 11:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Vulcan

I don't trust this ping pong ball picking. I vote we do in it live on TV with Mitzi Dupree as part of the show.

Eww.

Split98 · 04-15-2013, 11:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by azzarish

Does anyone else think Carolina might not win any of their last 7 games?

They've got a really difficult run in.

Well they just beat Boston of all teams 4-2. So there is a CHANCE they've broken out of their funk.

They're not a great team by any stretch, but they're not a lose 14 of the last 15 games bad.

Edit: I can see Nashville ending the season on an 11 game losing streak though.

azzarish · 04-15-2013, 11:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Split98

Well they just beat Boston of all teams 4-2. So there is a CHANCE they've broken out of their funk.

They're not a great team by any stretch, but they're not a lose 14 of the last 15 games bad.

Edit: I can see Nashville ending the season on an 11 game losing streak though.

Prior to the Boston game I think Carolina did actually lose 14 of 15, if I'm not mistaken. With only one SO loss.

Split98 · 04-15-2013, 11:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by azzarish

Prior to the Boston game I think Carolina did actually lose 14 of 15, if I'm not mistaken. OT/SO losses included.

Lol, so they did!

Hatter · 04-15-2013, 11:22 PM

There's no way we can out-suck Nashville the rest of the way. I see the Flames finishing 26th.

30. Florida
29. Nashville
28. Colorado
27. Carolina
26. Calgary

nik- · 04-15-2013, 11:28 PM

Don't forget Tampa.

McG · 04-15-2013, 11:33 PM

when you actually see how hard it is to suck, you know it is a special group in edmonton to pull it off consistently.

Split98 · 04-15-2013, 11:36 PM

- Tampa Bay faces Carolina and Florida

- Calgary faces all contenders besides Nashville

- Nashville has points up on Calgary already... but their only winnable game is against Calgary

- Florida plays the Rangers twice, so depending on which Rangers team shows up for those games... they could conceivably pull points out of those games. They also face Tampa, so there could be points on the board there

- Carolina sees the Rangers, Philadelphia and Tampa Bay

So you could consider Calgary to be coming into this with the toughest schedule. They will need these bottom-feeder vs. bottom-feeder games to go their way (overtimes would be nice). They'll also need the youth to not catch fire.

Not saying this is my hope, I think it's better for Calgary's future that the kids get into a groove and end this season feeling good, and drafting in the top 5 is definitely still going to return us a possible franchise center. Nevertheless... it is probable that we still draft in the top 3.

Flame Of Liberty · 04-15-2013, 11:41 PM

What a race, Oilers doing the only thing they know, lost their last 5 games.

Strong push from Nashville (lost 7 out of 10) but Carolina shamelessly takes the cake, going 2-8-0.

Enoch Root · 04-16-2013, 08:23 AM

that Chicago game at the end of the year could be a problem as they will probably be resting everyone. Of course, Emery has been on fire against the Flames, so there's that

Wolven · 04-16-2013, 09:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Split98

Colorado:
vs. Minnesota: 1
@ Phoenix: 2
@. St. Louis: 0
vs. St. Louis: 0
vs. Edmonton: 0
35 + 3 = 38

The Avs could do us a huge favour and win both of those games against the Blues. That would help get them out of the basement while keeping the Blues in that 7-8 spot that can help them exit in the first round.

They should also beat the Oilers, everyone else is right now.

Komskies · 04-16-2013, 09:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Wolven

The Avs could do us a huge favour and win both of those games against the Blues. That would help get them out of the basement while keeping the Blues in that 7-8 spot that can help them exit in the first round.

They should also beat the Oilers, everyone else is right now.

We don't want the Blues to lose too much though. Dallas is making a really strong push right now, and you have to think that Detroit will find a way to make it in.

bucksmasher · 04-16-2013, 09:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Wolven

The Avs could do us a huge favour and win both of those games against the Blues. That would help get them out of the basement while keeping the Blues in that 7-8 spot that can help them exit in the first round.

They should also beat the Oilers, everyone else is right now.

I doubt the Avs pick up more than 3 more points. Carolina and Tampa both have 2-3 winnable games. Florida is a lock for 30th but Nashville is the biggest problem with less wins than Calgary. If Nashville ties Calgary they win/lose.

It may be more of a drive for 29th now.

Stay Golden · 04-16-2013, 09:39 AM

I agree i think the Flames finish 28th maybe 29th. Florida just wants to mail in the rest of these games.

StrykerSteve · 04-16-2013, 10:40 AM

They need to finish 29th, at best.

If they don't win the lottery, they're likely to be bumped down a notch, and I don't want them picking 4th. It's top 3 or bust at this stage of the game.

Table 5 · 04-16-2013, 11:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by StrykerSteve

If they don't win the lottery, they're likely to be bumped down a notch, and I don't want them picking 4th. It's top 3 or bust at this stage of the game.

While true, do also remember that the lower down we finish in terms of draft order (ie, more points), the lower the chance that we get bumped down because of the lottery.

If you are 1st (ie. 30th place team), you have a 75% of being bumped. If you're 4th however, there's only a 31.3% chance we get bumped. If we are 6th, it's 17%. So while of course we always want to rank as high as possible even if getting bumped is higher, at least we don't have to worry about that as much the more we fall.

bucksmasher · 04-16-2013, 11:11 AM

I don't think I like this new draft odds system. I wonder if it was implemented to foil Edmonton getting all the 1st overall pick for the next 10 years.

Wolven · 04-16-2013, 11:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Komskies

We don't want the Blues to lose too much though. Dallas is making a really strong push right now, and you have to think that Detroit will find a way to make it in.

I would be stunned if the Blues found a way to lose enough games to miss the playoffs with their remaining schedule.

Quote:

Tue Apr 16, 2013 Vancouver St. Louis
Thu Apr 18, 2013 Phoenix St. Louis
Fri Apr 19, 2013 Dallas St. Louis
Sun Apr 21, 2013 St. Louis Colorado
Tue Apr 23, 2013 Colorado St. Louis
Thu Apr 25, 2013 Calgary St. Louis
Sat Apr 27, 2013 Chicago St. Louis

6/7 games are at home.
5/7 games are against non-playoff/bubble teams
Only 1 back-to-back game.

The only game that I think the Blues are very likely to lose is the one against the Hawks but since that is the last game of the season I can see the Hawks resting a lot of their star players that night.

So I stand by my previous comment and hope the Avs can do us a HUGE favour and beat the Blues twice.